Starting Pitcher Chart – April 13th, 2026
- Daily SP Chart archive
- 2-Start podcast episode
- Preseason SP Rankings (update coming soon!)
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart.
Note: 2026 data is now featured in the chart as of April 13th! We’re still dealing with small samples, but I’ve taken out the 2025 data and you will now see the pitcher’s current numbers and the wOBA rank for their opponent this year so far!
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations, you don’t really need a shiny stat to be convinced on starting guys like that. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment and I’ll get you an answer when I can. I try to do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
| Rk | PITCHER | Tm | Opp | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | opp wOBA RK | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Skenes | PIT | v. WSN | x | x | x | 12 | 5.25 | 1.25 | 12% | 8 | 2 ER in 11.3 IP since OD disaster so as long as you didn’t overreact or pretend to have him ranked outside the top 10, it’s all good! |
| 2 | Garrett Crochet | BOS | at MIN | x | x | x | 17.1 | 3.12 | 1.04 | 24% | 10 | |
| 3 | Cristopher Sánchez | PHI | v. CHC | x | x | x | 16.1 | 1.65 | 1.35 | 28% | 16 | |
| 4 | George Kirby | SEA | v. HOU | x | x | x | 20 | 3.60 | 0.90 | 15% | 2 | 22% K & 7% SwStr are more palatable when paired w/a 60% GB… but definitely needs more whiffs as the season goes on |
| 5 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | at ATH | x | x | x | 14.2 | 7.98 | 1.84 | 20% | 11 | Not the best venue to shave that ERA down but no shot I’m sitting him, espec. in 2-step wk (at SEA this wknd) |
| 6 | Eury Pérez | MIA | at ATL | x | x | x | 16 | 5.06 | 1.38 | 13% | 4 | 1 good, 1 bad, 1 meh so far; 6 BB at NYY will take some time to work off (& he’s not a BB stud in the first place) but still a rotation staple |
| 7 | Gavin Williams | CLE | at STL | x | x | x | 17.2 | 2.04 | 1.08 | 16% | 25 | A .115 BABIP has mitigated the damage of a 21% BB; neither will hold here but even a return to his career 12% BB is well above the 8% lg avg. so it’s always a rollercoaster w/him |
| 8 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | at BAL | x | x | 15 | 4.20 | 1.07 | 9% | 14 | Schedule hasn’t let up all yr so far (at LAD, ATL, at NYM) | |
| 9 | Will Warren | NYY | v. LAA | x | x | 14.2 | 3.07 | 1.30 | 14% | 20 | Failed to reach 5 IP in 2 of 3 w/at least 2 BB in ea. (went 5.7 w/0 BB in the other); LAA 12% BB will challenge hiis efficiency | |
| 10 | Justin Wrobleski | LAD | v. NYM | x | x | 9 | 4.00 | 1.22 | -3% | 5 | Ugly skills in a 4 IP relief app. and his lone start at TOR where he still went 5 IP/1 ER; tough matchup, but great support keeps W on table as long as he goes 5 | |
| 11 | Mike Burrows | HOU | at SEA | x | x | 16 | 5.63 | 1.75 | 12% | 18 | Debuted w/a Dud v. LAA but has just 5 ER in 10.3 IP since, incl. a trip to COL | |
| 12 | Dean Kremer | BAL | v. ARI | x | x | 28 | Was great in AAA (26% K-BB, 1.07 WHIP), but he’s a 6-yr vet who’s been perfectly cromulent in the bigs, he should be ripping up the minors | |||||
| 13 | Grant Holmes | ATL | v. MIA | x | 17.2 | 2.55 | 1.08 | 8% | 3 | 13% SwStr in line w/2025 and suggests Ks can return but I’d be careful here w/the hot-hitting Fish, though they don’t walk much | ||
| 14 | Cade Cavalli | WSN | at PIT | x | 14.1 | 2.51 | 1.47 | 3% | 10 | I’m OK starting the 2-step (v. SFG this wknd) as a do-or-die test, but there’s little to cling to w/a 3% K-BB and 9% SwStr | ||
| 15 | Matthew Liberatore | STL | v. CLE | x | 16 | 3.38 | 1.50 | 7% | 14 | Early returns have his spring (30% K-BB, 19% SwStr in 15 IP) as a stone cold fluke w/a 7% K-BB, 8% SwStr so far | ||
| 16 | Yusei Kikuchi | LAA | at NYY | 14.2 | 6.75 | 1.77 | 14% | 30 | ||||
| 17 | David Peterson | NYM | at LAD | 14.2 | 6.14 | 1.84 | 11% | 1 | ||||
| 18 | Javier Assad | CHC | at PHI | 5.2 | 0.53 | 5% | 9 | |||||
| 19 | Luis Severino | ATH | v. TEX | 13.1 | 5.40 | 1.80 | 7% | 13 | ||||
| 20 | Bailey Ober | MIN | v. BOS | 13.2 | 5.27 | 1.24 | 5% | 24 |
Wind 10+ per Rotogrinders:
BAL – out to L center at 11
PHI – ou to R at 11
PIT – across from R to L at 10
NYY – out to L center a 16
STL – out to L at 14 – (warm, humid, wind out to L? Perfect weather for more Walker dingers)
LAD – out to R center a 11
Only rain is MIN at 60+% chance
Looks like weather is going to be some level of an issue for the next 3 days in a band from Texas up through Minneapolis and Chicago and over into Ohio and NY/PA, including possibly tornadoes.
Could impact the following teams:
CLE @ STL
TBR @ CHW
KCR @ DET
BOS @ MIN
Also TOR @ MIL but that would take an actual tornado to cause any issues.
Cincy isn’t mentioned by name as it’s a little below the band where this is supposed to happen, but it’s in the general area and they are hosting the Giants starting tomorrow.
Weather being weather and forecasts being forecasts, who knows, but it is out there as a potential issue the next few days.
Hi,
I’m in a QS league and I have been picking at my last two spots with 4 pitchers to decide from: Mlod, Povich, Kay or Junk. I guess I could stream match ups, but am looking for some long term reliability.
What statistics (I’m just learning) would I focus on to get the best of my streamers or “discovering” pitchers on the verge?
Thanks
Curious what Paul is going to say but pitching comes down to controlling the strike zone and limiting hard contact, preferably on the ground. (Hitting is also controlling the strike zone but it’s hitting the ball hard, preferably in the air)
So start with K% – BB%. Strike out a lot of guys and don’t walk a lot of guys = good. Then you dive into the inputs to that:
Then HardHit% – does a guy limit hard contact?
Stick to the estimators, not ERA, ESPECIALLY this early in the season when it’s still insanely small samples. Povich is rocking a 2.19 ERA. Awesome! But he also has an 84.9% LOB (average is 72-ish) and a .216 BABIP (average is .287 this year). No starter maintains that kind of strand rate and the BABIP is low given he has been more average in limiting hard contact (89.9 EV, 39.5% HardHit rate).
I’d also look at the projections – you can either use the projections pages at the top of this screen or look at the individual ones on each player’s individual page. Of course, which projection do you buy? Because they can vary. The projections on Mlodzinski range from a 3.52 ERA from ZiPS to a 4.35 from THE BAT X. For Mlod, you also have to factor in that he is still transitioning back to starting after spending 2.5 years in the pen. Is he going to maintain velo? Probably not. Is he going to make 30 starts and throw 180 IP? No chance. He threw 114 IP last year so you’re looking at 130-140 at best.
I don’t know, there are a lot of things to look at – age, prospect status. League setup probably factors in as well.
Unless you’re in a pretty deep league, I suspect streaming the best upcoming schedule might be the way to go. So use the Probables Grid under RosterResource above to help with that. (since it’s limited to 10 days, you need to go to individual team schedules to project out beyond that)
Junk – MIL, STL, @LAD
Mlod – WSN, @TEX, @MIL
Kay – TBR, @ARI, LAA
Povich – @CLE, BOS, HOU – I’m assuming Kremer’s start today is a spot start and they go back to a 5-man after that. If they’re going to a 6-man, that 3rd start will be @NYY
Anyway, I could go on, but I do have a job 🙂
This is amazing, I don’t really see what i can add in this case. I follow the same stat outline with K-BB being my #1, followed by the how of their K-BB as you covered. And then I’m allllways lookin at upcoming schedules in these cases, too, bc the talent is usually gonna be tight so we’ll need a next level factor to start splittin’ ’em
For this one, I lean toward Mlod by a little over Kay. As mentioned in the thread, Povich is sent out which takes him out. Great work on the rundown, Anon, I hope joe found value in it!
I forgot to mention Pitch Modeling – look at the Stuff+ and PitchingBot numbers. Those are more recent measures of how good a pitcher’s “stuff” is and tends to stabilize a bit better and is as predictive as Barrel%. Both like Junk quite a bit better than the other 3. I don’t think he’s better than what I’ve got, but a couple of my guys are in the same “Roster and see what happens” bucket as Junk (Ashcraft, Meyer, Abel, Roupp, Weathers) so I’ve been keeping an eye on him
Thank you for the detailed response, Anon. I’m going to study your notes!
Put it this way – go to last year and sort the 52 Qualified starters by K-BB and the top 3 are Skubal, Crochet, and Skenes.
Go to 2015 and it’s Kershaw, Sale, and Scherzer.
Go to 2005 and it’s Johan Santana, Jake Peavy and Pedro with a 41 yo Randy Jonson hanging out in 5th. (This was right in the midst of that stretch where Peavy was a dude for 5 or 6 years there)
1995 has 4 HOFers in the top 10 – Maddux, Unit, Smoltz, and Pedro with Mike Mussina just missing at #12
Even with the lower strikeouts back in the day, it still works.
In 1985 it was Dwight Gooden (one of the best pitching seasons of the last 50 years, go look it up), Dennis Eckersley (pre-closer era), and Sid Fernandez. Saberhagen and Ryan are in the top 10.
1975 has 5 HOFers in the top 10 and 8 in the top 16 – Seaver, Blyleven, Perry, Sutton, Fergie Jenkins, Palmer, Carlton, Eck
1965 – 4 HOFer in the top 10 – Koufax, Bunning, Marichal, Gibson. This was Koufax’s next to last year and arguably his best. He had an unreal K-BB of 24.0% that would fit right in with Skubal, Crochet and Skenes even though Ks were much harder to come by in the day. He struck out 382 guys in 335.2 IP that year and only walked 71.
And for every HOFer cited, there are nearly as many either near-HOF guys, “what if” guys, or not yet eligible but will get HOF votes guys at the top of these lists: Sam McDowell and Denny McLain in 1965, Frank Tanana and Rick Reuschel in BOTH 1975 and 1985, Vida Blue in 1975, Mark Prior and Andy Pettitte in 2005, Klu-bot, MadBum, deGrom, peak-Arrieta, David Price, Matt Harvey, Cole, Greinke in 2015
This is why K-BB is such a standout stat. . . .
Povich sent down so that gives you one less option 🙂
Anon: best reply ever
Everyone else: Anon so does not have a job
LOL