Shortstop ADP Market Report: 3/24/21
With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.
Top 100 Players Rising
None
Top 100 Players Falling
None
Top 200 Players Rising
Marcus Semien (+12.4)- Semien is clearly moving up in drafts after signing in Toronto. He is a season removed from a 33/10 with .285 average and will be batting second in a better park with a stacked lineup and will gain second base eligibility in season. With George Springer potentially out for a little bit, he might even lead off for the Jays, which is even nicer. His price is going up, but I am here for it.
Didi Gregorius (+10.47)- DIdi’s rise likely has to do with resigning in Philly which was the best possible landing spot for him. He gets the great home park again which allows his lackluster StatCast data to play up a bit better. He is not going to light up the box scores, but he is solid contributor in every category.
Top 200 Players Falling
None
Top 300 Players Rising
Willi Castro (+13.48)- This is a player that I am starting to turn around on. Castro showed some surprising power in 2020 considering he was supposed to be a guy that was supposed to be kind of an average player in every category except above average speed. The fact he has been crushing it in spring has me starting to buy in that maybe he is something more. He has SS and 3B eligibility which also helps a lot.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (+11.9)- IKF has begun to rise once we knew that his role in Texas was solidified. He isn’t a world beater by any stretch of the imagination, but he isn’t popless and he has some speed. His best value is in Yahoo leagues where he is still catcher eligible.
Wander Franco (+18.86)- Franco’s spring was the reason for the rise. He was pretty impressive before being sent down. Now that he is down, he is likely to drop some, but with the Rays trying to compete for a World Series, I would expect that he won’t be held down quite as long as they normally would hold down a prospect. I think he is DJ LeMahieu light once he is up.
Top 300 Players Falling
Jonathan Villar (-45.8)- See the article in this series on second basemen.
Jake Cronenworth (-23.19)- See the article in this series on first basemen.
Ha-Seong Kim (-44.11)- Kim’s continued drop is directly tied to the lack of playing time that may be coming his way. He has really struggled in spring training, hitting .125/.222/.278 with 12 strikeouts and no home runs or stolen bases. I feel pretty confident that the speed and hit tool will carry over at some point after watching him during the MLB shut down last spring. However, I do have some concerns that the power won’t translate as well and it now seems like he doesn’t have a full path to playing time. The upside is huge, but there is risk considering how stacked this Padres team has become.
| 2/24/21-3/24/21 | Player | Team | Position(s) | 10/1/20-10/31/20 | 11/1/20-11/30/20 | 12/1/20-1/19/21 | 1/20/21-2/23/21 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.47 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | SS | 3.5 | 3.26 | 2.7 | 2.41 | -0.06 |
| 7.03 | Trea Turner | WAS | SS | 6.5 | 7.07 | 7.05 | 7.31 | 0.28 |
| 11.99 | Trevor Story | COL | SS | 10.75 | 11.56 | 11.62 | 12.09 | 0.1 |
| 18.79 | Francisco Lindor | CLE | SS | 15.25 | 17.04 | 16.45 | 17.69 | -1.1 |
| 21.41 | Adalberto Mondesi | KC | SS | 31 | 28.59 | 22.68 | 20.47 | -0.94 |
| 23.09 | Bo Bichette | TOR | SS | 18.75 | 19.15 | 23.02 | 24.52 | 1.43 |
| 33.18 | Xander Bogaerts | BOS | SS | 35 | 36.67 | 35.37 | 34.26 | 1.08 |
| 34.74 | Corey Seager | LAD | SS | 32.25 | 28.59 | 35.05 | 37.38 | 2.64 |
| 38.75 | Tim Anderson | CWS | SS | 42.75 | 38.33 | 40.67 | 40.43 | 1.68 |
| 63.94 | Gleyber Torres | NYY | SS | 68.25 | 66.33 | 69.17 | 68.43 | 4.49 |
| 66.03 | Javier Baez | CHC | SS | 74.75 | 73.19 | 71.96 | 68.78 | 2.75 |
| 102.32 | Dansby Swanson | ATL | SS | 116.25 | 103.07 | 103.27 | 100.24 | -2.08 |
| 114.46 | Marcus Semien | OAK | SS | 139.75 | 142.3 | 147.45 | 126.86 | 12.4 |
| 123.13 | Carlos Correa | HOU | SS | 131.25 | 128.56 | 126.88 | 126.21 | 3.08 |
| 129.97 | Tommy Edman | STL | 2B, 3B, SS, OF | 133.75 | 145.04 | 127.66 | 126.12 | -3.85 |
| 154.25 | Didi Gregorius | PHI | SS | 161.5 | 154.78 | 167.41 | 164.72 | 10.47 |
| 155 | Andres Gimenez | NYM | 2B, 3B, SS | 223.75 | 214.78 | 188.35 | 158.45 | 3.45 |
| 210.59 | Jonathan Villar | TOR | 2B, SS | 119.25 | 130.52 | 141.48 | 164.79 | -45.8 |
| 211.16 | Paul DeJong | STL | SS | 233.25 | 216.7 | 222.17 | 208.4 | -2.76 |
| 233.19 | Jake Cronenworth | SD | 1B, 2B, SS | 160.75 | 157.81 | 154.78 | 210 | -23.19 |
| 233.59 | Jorge Polanco | MIN | SS | 206 | 195.63 | 209.87 | 217.69 | -15.9 |
| 236.41 | Chris Taylor | LAD | 2B, SS, OF | 250 | 232 | 217.78 | 222.78 | -13.63 |
| 236.5 | David Fletcher | LAA | 2B, 3B, SS | 221.25 | 219.74 | 217.76 | 230.38 | -6.12 |
| 238.4 | Ha-Seong Kim | FA | SS | 271.25 | 211.3 | 165.62 | 194.29 | -44.11 |
| 239.81 | Willi Castro | DET | 3B, SS | 239 | 245.33 | 230.96 | 253.29 | 13.48 |
| 282.46 | Mauricio Dubon | SF | 2B, SS, OF | 347.5 | 311.37 | 282.57 | 274.88 | -7.58 |
| 284.46 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | TEX | 3B, SS | 378.25 | 314.78 | 290.32 | 296.36 | 11.9 |
| 296.35 | Wander Franco | TB | SS | 200.25 | 231.11 | 295.18 | 315.21 | 18.86 |
| 301.44 | Amed Rosario | NYM | SS | 350.75 | 358.78 | 332 | 237.59 | -63.85 |
| 303.15 | Elvis Andrus | TEX | SS | 337 | 360.67 | 447.12 | 376.12 | 72.97 |
| 337.03 | Joey Wendle | TB | 2B, 3B, SS | 323.75 | 309.78 | 303.01 | 314.47 | -22.56 |
| 340.84 | Willy Adames | TB | SS | 286.25 | 286.96 | 314.38 | 327.64 | -13.2 |
| 365.16 | Nick Ahmed | ARZ | SS | 353.25 | 386.3 | 378.1 | 349.03 | -16.13 |
| 370.29 | J.P. Crawford | SEA | SS | 426 | 422.26 | 415.1 | 376.34 | 6.05 |
| 386.9 | Miguel Rojas | MIA | SS | 378.75 | 390 | 375.1 | 368.91 | -17.99 |
| 387.75 | Andrelton Simmons | LAA | SS | 472 | 466.81 | 467.1 | 386.33 | -1.42 |
| 395.37 | Nico Hoerner | CHC | 2B, SS | 500 | 461.96 | 425.57 | 411.22 | 15.85 |
| 402.34 | Luis Urias | MLW | 2B, 3B, SS | 394 | 401.96 | 395.85 | 388.36 | -13.98 |
| 420.06 | Jose Iglesias | LAA | SS | 379 | 393.11 | 392.56 | 407.78 | -12.28 |
| 429.53 | Niko Goodrum | DET | 2B, SS | 430.5 | 434.22 | 398.28 | 374.78 | -54.75 |
| 432.09 | Freddy Galvis | CIN | 2B, SS | 580 | 583.7 | 599.89 | 421.48 | -10.61 |
| 432.34 | Kevin Newman | PIT | 2B, SS | 503.5 | 505.33 | 521.21 | 453.93 | 21.59 |
| 449.66 | Jazz Chisholm | MIA | 2B, SS | 404 | 419.7 | 439.48 | 448.81 | -0.85 |
| 466.99 | Orlando Arcia | MLW | SS | 505.25 | 513.93 | 502.99 | 438.12 | -28.87 |
| 488.06 | Brandon Crawford | SF | SS | 582 | 515.56 | 532.32 | 491.33 | 3.27 |
| 516.07 | Pat Valaika | BAL | 1B, 2B, SS | 575 | 550.33 | 508.82 | 500.09 | -15.98 |
| 530.94 | Jeter Downs | BOS | SS | 529.25 | 510.41 | 502.29 | 521 | -9.94 |
| 535.59 | Bobby Witt Jr. | KC | SS | 730 | 664.41 | 728.13 | 721.09 | 185.5 |
| 578.94 | Leury Garcia | CWS | SS | 639.5 | 628.96 | 664.61 | 589.81 | 10.87 |
| 585.1 | Erik Gonzalez | PIT | 3B, SS | 697.5 | 636.3 | 596.54 | 548.76 | -36.34 |
| 586.37 | Kyle Farmer | CIN | 2B, SS | NA | 748.78 | 745.27 | 685.9 | 99.53 |
| 592.72 | Anderson Tejeda | TEX | SS | 503.25 | 493.74 | 525.7 | 539.91 | -52.81 |
| 640.57 | Jose Garcia | CIN | SS | 542.75 | 560.19 | 623.98 | 602.02 | -38.55 |
| 707.5 | Tyler Wade | NYY | 2B, SS | 723.25 | 681.19 | 701.07 | 666.1 | -41.4 |
| 724.19 | Joe Panik | TOR | 2B, 3B, SS | 720.25 | 734.3 | 742.28 | 731.69 | 7.5 |
| 726.19 | Oneil Cruz | PIT | SS | 742.5 | 735.74 | 735.24 | 718.26 | -7.93 |
| 727.6 | Eric Sogard | MLW | 2B, 3B, SS | 735.5 | 749.3 | 741.23 | 739.16 | 11.56 |
| 731.06 | Yu Chang | CLE | SS | NA | 750.37 | 740.16 | NA | NA |
| 736.75 | Richie Martin | BAL | SS | NA | NA | 739.68 | 734.66 | -2.09 |
| 737.34 | Ramon Urias | BAL | SS | NA | 747.3 | 730.13 | 740.09 | 2.75 |
| 739.28 | CJ Abrams | SD | SS | 735.25 | 744.93 | 750.62 | 748.71 | 9.43 |
| 743.13 | Tyler Freeman | CLE | SS | 669.75 | 704 | 706.49 | 738.55 | -4.58 |
| 743.91 | Taylor Walls | TB | SS | NA | NA | NA | 734.16 | -9.75 |
| 744.41 | Royce Lewis | MIN | SS | 586.25 | 605.33 | 627.41 | 630.62 | -113.79 |
| 748.66 | Austin Martin | TOR | SS | 686.5 | 725.44 | 737.9 | 746.95 | -1.71 |
| 748.71 | Marco Luciano | SF | SS | NA | 745.93 | 748.98 | 747.48 | -1.23 |
| 749.74 | Santiago Espinal | TOR | SS | NA | NA | 749.37 | 750.72 | 0.98 |
| 749.75 | Owen Miller | CLE | SS | 695.5 | 724.63 | 728.39 | 748.45 | -1.3 |
| 750.99 | Nick Gordon | MIN | SS | NA | 747.15 | 748.39 | 750.86 | -0.13 |
| 750.99 | Ryan Vilade | COL | SS | NA | NA | 749.51 | 750.6 | -0.39 |
| NA | Andrew Velazquez | BAL | SS, OF | NA | NA | NA | 748.09 | NA |
| NA | Ehire Adrianza | MIN | 3B, SS | NA | 750.59 | 745.21 | 749.6 | NA |
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
I enjoy these write ups! When you get a chance, you may wish to change Semien’s team to TOR on the chart.
The brakes need to be pumped on Semien. This is a 30 year old with a career .254/.322/.425 slash line, and his shooting up the draft board is a little puzzling considering SS is not a scarce position. There is little to no difference between him and DeJong who is going 100 picks later, batting 3rd between Goldschmidt and Arenado this spring. If I was waiting for pick 120 to fill my SS I might as well wait until later because the studs are gone, and pick 120 is too early to fill MI with a player of Semien’s caliber. If the Toronto offense is as stacked as people are saying, then Semien is certainly at risk of being dropped in the lineup if he’s not hitting. Nice player and I’d like to have him on my team around 75-100 picks later where he belongs to be drafted.
Semien makes a lot more sense to me as a 2B, given how the tiers break down and overall depth.
There’s still quite a difference between them according to rankings using ATC projections – about 75 spots (105 vs 180). So it’s more that DeJong is undervalued rather than Semien being overvalued. At least according to ATC.
I think that’s due to the low SB projection for DeJong. There aren’t many teams at that stage in the draft that want to fill their MI spot with a guy that’s only had >1 SB once in 4 seasons. Many teams are short on SBs at that point, and all the late guys for speed are at MI or OF. So for that reason, he’s slipping after guys like Gimenez/Madrigal/Segura/Wong who should reach double digit steals. That’s one of the reasons I like starting with a guy like Mondesi, because it frees me up to take all the OF/MI value that slips down the draft board due to low SBs. Because yeah, DeJong is a great value batting cleanup in the StL lineup.
Justin, in your next update you may want to update the teams a few of the players are now on like Lindor, Villar and Gimenez. There may be a few more but those are the ones that caught my eye.