First Base ADP Market Report: 3/22/21

With draft season upon us, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I have been doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Top 100 Players Rising

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Top 100 Players Falling

None

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Rhys Hoskins (+10.88)- Hoskins raised up the ADP over the last month now that he is playing in games which means he should be ready for the start of the season. Unfortunately, he is really struggling in spring training. The most important part is that he is playing, but I do worry that the lack of the DH means he will sit more than last year. As you can tell, I am feeling pretty ambivalent about him.   

Trey Mancini (+18.93)- Mancini is rising because he is healthy and performing well in spring. The strikeouts are a bit of a concern, but he is hitting .323 with a homer. Baltimore is a great place to hit and there is no reason he won’t play every day. 

C.J. Cron (+134.38)- Cron is rising up because of his great spring and what seems like a full time role in Colorado. The ADP will continue to rise as we have seen his ADP inside of the top 150 in the first few Main Events. The power will play great in Colorado and he is hitting in the middle of that lineup, so I am actually ok with the price and rostered him in the Tout Wars Mixed Auction. 

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Dominic Smith (-21.28)- The continued fall of Dom Smith in the ADP with the concerns he will lose playing time without a DH in the National league. At this point we have to acknowledge that this is a huge risk. Smith is brutal in the outfield and he is not knocking Pete Alonso off of 1st base. His StatCast data in 2020 was great with an xBA of .304, a barrel percentage of 13.3% and a hard hit percentage of 46.7%. I love the upside, but the floor isn’t as safe without the guarantee of 600 plate appearances. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Ryan McMahon (+18.6)- With Arenado leaving town and Brendan Rodgers hurt, McMahon should have a full time role and hit high up in the order. He reworked his swing in the offseason, but it hasn’t yet shown itself to be successful in spring training where he is hitting .189/.268/.378 with two home runs and four walks, but eight strikeouts in 41 plate appearances. He is triple eligible which is great, but he definitely needs to hit or he could find himself in a platoon or worse. 

 

Andrew Vaughn (+73.24)- Vaughn is rising with the hope that if he is not up by Opening Day, he will be up very soon. I tend to believe that, but we are talking about a guy that is approaching the top 200 picks in Main Event drafts. I think he will hit for average with some pop, but I don’t know that it is prodigious power right now. He is a gamble, but I think it is one worth taking if you can cover for the time he might be in the minors for. 

 

Bobby Dalbec (+18.9)- Part of the gain for Dalbec in the ADP has to do with his hot spring. He is hitting .324 with six home runs in spring, but he also has 15 strikeouts in 38 plate appearances. The strong average he has put up in spring along with the one he put up in 2020 are fools gold if he continues to strikeout at this rate, but the power is elite. Make sure you have an average pillow if you are going to take him. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Jared Walsh (-25.56)- Walsh is falling due to concerns about his playing time with Justin Upton and Shohei Ohtani healthy and Dexter Fowler in the fold. However, he has been hitting high up in the lineup in spring which is interesting, but he has struggled quite a bit. I am intrigued by Walsh, but have yet to pull the trigger on him, which says a lot considering I have like 20 teams already drafted. 

 

Jake Cronenworth (-34.47)- Cronenworth’s drop in ADP has everything to do with all the talent they have brought in this offseason. The signing of Ha-seong Kim 김하성 and Jurickson Profar were troubling, but with the struggles of Kim in spring training and the injury of Trent Grisham, I think his playing time is pretty safe to start the season. He is triple eligible and could even add eligibility in the outfield during the season. I think he should be going higher than he is.