Seven Notable Barrel Rate Fallers Since July

Since July, several fantasy-relevant hitters have been barreling the ball less often. Some have been recovering and returning from injuries. With others, the power seems to have just disappeared recently.

The table below shows the hitters with a three-percentage point drop in their barrels per plate appearance since July, minimum 50 PA.

We won’t highlight all these hitters because some were sent to the minors or dealing with injuries, but let’s dive into seven hitters with lower barrel rates and why it matters.

Brandon Nimmo, OF, Rangers

After hitting 23 or more home runs in three previous seasons with the Mets, Nimmo will be fortunate to reach 20 this season. He has only 14 this year, despite an odd pattern in his barrel rate. Through July 1, he had just 8 HR even with a 7.2% barrel/PA. Since July 1, he has been relatively productive with six home runs, four steals, and a .281 batting average, despite his barrel/PA being cut nearly in half. Nimmo’s season-long barrel rate per plate appearance (7.1%) has been a career best, 2 points higher than his career average.

Theoretically, Nimmo should be hitting more home runs, and it appears he might be getting a little unlucky. His 9.3% HR/FB rate this season is down from 13-15% in the previous three years. The Mets (19th) and Rangers (18th) have similar home run park factors for left-handed hitters, so it doesn’t look like a drastic home park difference.

The rest of Nimmo’s skills have been consistent from a plate discipline standpoint, so we might be interested in buying back into him in 2027.

Dillon Dingler, C, Tigers

Through June 30, Dingler ranked 42nd in wRC+ with 19 home runs, a 12.6% barrel rate (No. 65), and a .291 xBA (No. 26) among 451 qualified hitters with 50 plate appearances. Dingler has been cooling off since July with seven home runs, a .224 batting average, an 86 wRC+, and nine barrels. For context, Dingler hit 29 barrels before July.

Dingler left a game in early July with a thumb injury, leading to a few missed games before returning to the lineup. He never landed on the injured list, but there’s a good chance that Dingler is powering through the thumb issue, which directly impacts his power. Even with Dingler’s power falling off since July, the season-long numbers suggest this is a high-end catcher to target in drafts next season.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Dodgers

Though Freeman’s 90th-percentile Exit Velocity (EV90) and barrel rate have fallen since July, his xBA is slightly better. That indicates Freeman has strong plate discipline, though it hasn’t translated into high-end power and barrels. Freeman’s 5.9% barrel rate per plate appearance this season would be a career low, over 1 percentage point below his career average.

Part of Freeman’s recent batting average surge came via a .378 BABIP while only producing two home runs, four steals, and four barrels since July. Meanwhile, Freeman had a .322 BABIP, 13 home runs, and 30 barrels before July. Furthermore, Freeman’s 10.8% HR/FB rate dipped by 5 percentage points compared to his career norm, so his power and home run luck have taken a step back.

Though we can chalk it up to being fluky, it’s hard to produce with a barrel rate under 2%. The age plus late-season power decline might seep into how we value Freeman in 2027.

José Ramírez, 3B, Guardians

In the middle of June, Ramírez underwent surgery for a hamate bone fracture in his left hand. He was expected to miss 5-7 weeks, but returned within 4-5 weeks. The numbers were surprising enough that we had to double-check: Ramirez has just one HR and zeo barrels since July. He has added seven steals, but even that is below expectations. For context, Ramírez hit 10 home runs, 15 barrels, and stole 24 bases before July.

Hitters like Ramírez can provide fantasy value beyond power, as he projects for 15 home runs and 35+ stolen bases. That’s wildly different from Ramírez’s 30/40 seasons in 2024 and 2025. Ramírez’s season-long 3.3% barrel rate is the lowest since 2017, over 1.5 percentage points below his career norm.

Like Freeman, Ramírez’s 7.2% HR/FB rate is down significantly, five points below his career norm. On the plus side, his plate discipline and hard-hit metrics indicate the barrel rate should bounce back.

Given Ramírez’s consistent track record as a high-end fantasy producer in five categories, we can guess the market won’t offer a big discount on him in 2027.

Michael Harris II, OF, Braves

Through June, Harris had 14 home runs and 32 barrels. He continues to hit the ball hard, but has totaled 10 home runs on just 12 barrels since July. Harris has an 8.3% barrel rate per plate appearance on the season, a career best. Theoretically, we could see more home runs, though he has already hit a career high with 24 homers, and has the potential to reach 30.

Harris’s launch angle has consistently been an issue, though he has been elevating the ball more, as seen in the rolling graph above. His 36.3% flyball rate and a 17.5% pulled-air rate are both 4-6 points higher than his career averages. It may or may not be related, but Harris has been using a significantly more open stance at 27 degrees, up from 18 (2025) and 11 (career).

Sometimes, when hitters make these batting stance changes, I wonder whether they allow them to attack different pitches. It’s probably not correlated, but Harris has been barreling the ball more against breaking (9.6% barrel/PA) and offspeed (10.6% barrel/PA) pitches, up from 5-6% on both last season.

Harris’s power skills and barrel rates have supported the higher power output, so don’t fret about a slight dip in barrels since July.

Mike Trout, OF, Angels

Like Harris, Trout had a wild barrel shift, though it’s a smaller sample. Through June, Trout hit 38 barrels with 17 home runs. However, Trout’s barrel rate fell. Since July, Trout hit three home runs with 10 barrels. That said, the season-long 9% barrel rate per plate appearance is still strong.

Besides Trout’s barrel rate falling, he has been unfortunate, with a 5.9% HR/FB since July, compared to 18.9% through June. Trout missed time in late June and early July with a hamstring injury. Besides that, Trout was hit by a pitch on his hand in early April, so he has been relatively healthy this season. There’s a chance the hamstring injury could be lingering and causing Trout’s power to dip since July.

Trout will push for a similar number of home runs, runs, and RBI as he had last year, with an improved batting average around .240, and a surprising 11 steals after 11 across the previous four seasons. It’s nice to see Trout reach over 500 plate appearances in two consecutive seasons because the strong plate discipline and high-end power should still suck us into his fantasy profile.

Spencer Horwitz, 1B, Pirates

Power hasn’t been part of Horwitz’s fantasy profile, so it’s unsurprising to see him on the barrel rate faller list. Before July, Horwitz hit 10 home runs and 18 barrels. After July, Horwitz has zero barrels and zero home runs. A hamstring injury in late June and a concussion during his rehab assignment in July combined to cost him over a month, and his barrel rate woes coincide with those two issues.

Horwitz has shown slightly above-average barrel rates before 2026, so there’s a chance he regresses towards his career norms. His 4.7% season-long barrel rate per plate appearance is within 1 percentage point of his career rate, so that’s basically what we should have expected. Thankfully, Horwitz relies on his near-elite plate discipline with an 85.5% contact rate and a 5.9% swinging-strike rate.

Besides Horwitz’s strong plate discipline, he theoretically makes up for the lack of power with volume by hitting leadoff for the Pirates. Unfortunately, Horwitz might only be valuable in deeper leagues because he lacks the fantasy upside in shallower formats.