Big Kid Adds (Week 23)


Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in four or more leagues.

Batters

Walker Jenkins (8): In 19 PA, I haven’t seen anything that would change my value of him. While his Contact% is down from 85% in AAA to 72%, his strikeout rate dropped from 15% to 5%. He only has a .188 AVG (.143 BABIP), but his .250 ISO will play.

A small, faded red flag is that teams are not throwing him any fastballs (26% vs league average of 48%). It seems there is a book out on how to attack him.

Turner Hill (5): The 27-outfielder had a stretch of six straight starts for the Giants, but has only started in one of the last three games. Right now, Hill, Drew Gilbert, and Jonah Cox share two outfield spots.

I can see his appeal. He makes a lot of contact (88% Contact%, .342 AVG) with some power (9 HR in AAA). Additionally, he stole 24 bases in the minors this year with one so far in the majors. Kind of a Nico Hoerner-lite profile.

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.

Will Smith (4): With Smith coming off the IL, he was an easy add for teams wanting to improve their catching.

Blaze Alexander (4): Before BLAZE went on the IL, he was starting every game, playing all over the field (2B, 3B, SS, and possibly OF qualified), and batting .312/.368/.439 with 4 HR and 9 SB.

Since returning, he’s struggled (.368 OPS) and only started in four of six games, at three different positions.

Héctor Rodríguez (4): After starting slow (.306 OPS in 34 PA), he has taken off with a 1.137 OPS in his last 39 PA. As I write this, he has hit another home run for a total of five.

Just looking at his overall stats, he doesn’t seem to have a weakness. The only complaint might be that he hasn’t stolen a base yet.

Jonah Cox (4): After appearing locked as a bench warmer, Cox started in six of the last seven games, including starts against both lefties and righties. In 75 PA, the 25-year-old outfielder has been balanced with a .294 AVG, 4 HR, and 8 SB. His batting average is at risk because it is propped up by a .516 BABIP, and his swing-and-miss will bring it down (44% K%, 64% Contact%).

Hao-Yu Lee (4): Starting (13 straight starts), hitting (.742 OPS, 8 HR, 2 SB), and qualified at two positions (2B and 3B). Some team in every league could use that help.

Starters

Elmer Rodríguez (5): I know there weren’t many starting pitcher waiver wire options,* but Rodríguez should not have been considered. Coming into the week, he had a 4.70 ERA (5.43 xFIP), 1.52 WHIP (5.1 BB/9), and 6.3 K/9. Still, managers in half of these leagues added him for a two-start week and were rewarded with 5 ER, 5 K, and 3 BB (2 HBP) in 3 IP.

He has never shown any control at any level, but for some reason, giving up just two walks in his previous start made people think he has turned things around?

His struggles stem from the fact that he can’t get any non-fastball over the plate. If he falls behind in the count, he is forced to throw a fastball across the plate or walk the batter. Besides complete desperation, I have no idea why he was rostered.

* Note: I think the wire is extremely picked over as managers are looking at each upcoming matchup and focusing more on pitcher matchup than pitcher talent.

Mike Burrows (5): Burrows was making progress from an elbow injury and had 15 K with just 5 BB in 13 IP during his rehab. But just before coming off the IL, his shoulder started acting up, and his rehab was stopped. He’s not rosterable anymore with so little of the season left for him to get healthy.

Davis Martin (4), Andre Pallante (4), and Nick Pivetta (4): As I note above, these deep-league managers are scrapping for any available starting pitchers.

  • Martin: Martin came off the IL and is facing the Astros this week. He wasn’t on bid lists for the Astros. Martin now lines up for two starts against the Pirates and Cardinals next week.
  • Pallante: Again, he’s still on the IL and might come off to face the Dodgers or at Colorado this week. Those aren’t the matchups managers are adding him for; it’s for potential starts against the Giants (x2) and the Pirates.
  • Pivetta: It’s not known when Pivetta will return, but he’s the best pitcher of the three and the Padres have some weak (and strong – LAD, at COL) matchups coming up.

Yusei Kikuchi (4) and Randy Dobnak (4): The desperation continues, as managers will add any pitcher with a pulse. While Dobnak’s results were great in his first nine appearances (1.58 ERA, despite a 1.40 WHIP), he turned back into a pumpkin over his last two starts (6.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP).

Kikuchi starts against the Pirates this week, and his managers are hoping goes okay. He continues to get hit around (.331 BABIP and 1.5 HR/9) and has a 5.65 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.

Getting ahead with Martin, Pallante, and Pivetta keeps managers from starting Kikuchi, Dobnak, and Rodriguez.

Relievers

Bryan Hudson (8) and Elvis Alvarado (8): Both pitchers got their team’s last two Saves, so it’s reasonable that they’ll get some more this season.

Most Added Players in NFBC “Elite” Leagues
Name Leagues Max Winning Bid Min Winning Bid
Bryan Hudson 8 12 1
Elvis Alvarado 8 11 1
Walker Jenkins 8 44 5
Elmer Rodriguez 5 11 1
Mike Burrows 5 15 2
Turner Hill 5 4 1
Davis Martin 4 5 1
Will Smith 4 32 2
Blaze Alexander 4 13 4
Hector Rodriguez 4 8 5
Jonah Cox 4 7 1
Andre Pallante 4 4 1
Randy Dobnak 4 3 1
Nick Pivetta 4 11 2
Yusei Kikuchi 4 4 1
Hao-Yu Lee 4 3 1





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

2 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
AnonMember since 2020
5 hours ago

Just a note that a good chunk of Jenkins’ positive value comes from a HR off a position player in the 9th inning of a blowout on Monday. Remove that and his triple slash is now .105/.261/.157 with a barrel rate of 0% and a hard hit rate of 20%. Can’t calculate his adjusted xwOBA less the HR but it’s at .258 overall right now so it’s quite a bit less than that without the cheapie HR. Now, we’re still in super small sample size with only 24 PA and he does have as many BB as K which is good and I love his Z-O so far, but it’s not the most encouraging start. Considering a drop here TBH

Dodgers have said that Smith’s workload will be managed and he likely won’t catch consecutive games. Maybe they start to give Ohtani some breaks and Smith can DH, but Ohtani ain’t much into missing games so I wouldn’t count on that. With DH taken, that’s a tough roster decision there. Another one where I’m considering a drop.

AnonMember since 2020
6 minutes ago
Reply to  Anon

Literally since I posted that about Smith, there are now snippets coming out that Roberts thought Ohtani looked tired last night striking out 4 times and is now having to state on the record that they have no plans to shut him down. Which definitely means it is under consideration. We’ll see. While the Dodgers are a lock for the playoffs, they are still in a battle for the 1st round bye so they do still have a lot to play for (whatever your thoughts about the current playoff format, this feature is a huge improvement on the prior).

We’ll see, but maybe Smith can get some regular run at DH the rest of the way.

IfF Smith’s in the lineup tonight, I’m holding until we get some more clarity.