Scoresheet Retrospective and Keeper Help
Last week we took a look at my Ottoneu build, and this week I’d like to take a look at the recap from another successful season in Scoresheet.
I play in the BP Kings league — which has Baseball Prospectus roots — and have put together some pretty solid seasons. Here’s a look back at the season-ending standings for as long as I’ve been in the league.
2015 – Wasted Aces – 95-67 (tied for 1st)
2014 – Four Aces and a Nolasco – 95-67 (2nd)
2013 – new Warne order – 76-86 (tied for 2nd)
2012 – Warne – 76-86 (3rd)
2011 – Warnhardt Dynasty – 68-94 (last)
I take some solace that I was eliminated in the playoffs by Brent S. Gambill, who went on to lose the World Series to Pete McCarthy. It’s been a steady climb since the inaugural season when I shared the team with John Erhardt. This was also a mighty successful season considering after my keepers were set, I lost Yu Darvish for the season and Marcus Stroman for what we thought at the time was the season. I was also heading into the season with massive worry about Masahiro Tanaka, who ended up getting through the season — for the most part.
I documented earlier this season what I did to get to this point, and the link is here.
But what I’d like to share with you today is the roster I concluded the season with, to sort of crowdsource what I should do in terms of keeping players.
First, here are the in-season transactions I made:
Trade:
Chris Sale to Nate Stephens, received Carlos Gomez, Danny Salazar and Johnny Giavotella
I made this deal in late June, with an outfield that was struggling and with the idea that I might not be able to contend but that I’d let it ride for one more month. I desperately needed a second sacker and in late June Giavotella was hitting .266/.321/.359. Certainly not all that great but a fine throw-in to get me by until I waited for Jonathan Schoop to get healthy. I’d give the trade a B+, because I love Salazar, but Gomez struggled a bit.
Supplemental Picks (in order):
San Francisco OF Justin Maxwell
Milwaukee OF Domingo Santana
St. Louis OF Stephen Piscotty
Texas OF Lewis Brinson
Colorado SP Chad Bettis
Baltimore MR Chaz Roe
San Francisco SP Phil Bickford
Arizona SS Isan Diaz
Some decent pieces here, and I nailed it with Piscotty by grabbing him in the May supplemental. All told, getting Piscotty gives me maybe an A- here. Thoughts?
So here’s what I’m working with after the season (in no particular order):
Starting Pitchers:
Sonny Gray
Kyle Gibson
Danny Salazar
Masahiro Tanaka
Tommy Milone
Chad Bettis
Andrew Heaney
Henry Owens
Ricky Nolasco
Marcus Stroman
Yu Darvish
Jose Berrios
Kohl Stewart
Phil Bickford
Relief Pitchers:
Brad Ziegler
Casey Fien
Bryan Morris
Addison Reed
Shawn Kelley
Chaz Roe
Jason Frasor
Joba Chamberlain
Javy Guerra
Catchers:
Kurt Suzuki
Yasmani Grandal
Jorge Alfaro
Reese McGuire
Corner Infielders:
Jose Abreu
Nick Swisher
Danny Valencia
Middle Infielders:
Johnny Giavotella
Jonathan Schoop
Eduardo Escobar
Xander Bogaerts
Jed Lowrie
Isan Diaz
Outfielders:
A.J. Pollock
Jason Heyward
Carlos Gomez
Justin Maxwell
Dustin Ackley
Stephen Piscotty
Jarrod Dyson
Domingo Santana
Michael Saunders
Dayan Viciedo
Lewis Brinson
I’m able to keep 10 big leaguers and as many minor leaguers — under rookie threshold — as I’d like. My guess is that it’s going to be another roster crunch this season.
Here’s where I’m at right now for keepers:
Pollock
Heyward
Gomez
Piscotty
Bogaerts
Abreu
Grandal
Gray
Salazar
Tanaka
Stroman
Darvish
Heaney
—
Alfaro
McGuire
Berrios
Brinson
Stewart/Bickford/Diaz (maybe?)
That’s already way too many big league keepers. Who would you trade? Who would you keep? Moving an outfielder makes a lot of sense, but which one? I’d lean toward Gomez. Do Schoop and Gibson have trade value? I’m looking forward to hearing all of your opinions.
In addition to Rotographs, Warne writes about the Minnesota Twins for The Athletic and is a sportswriter for Sportradar U.S. in downtown Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter @Brandon_Warne, or feel free to email him to do podcasts or for any old reason at brandon.r.warne@gmail-dot-com
I would try to deal Grandal – bad park and injury history. I usually prefer to go with a platoon behind the plate – that ensures that I have enough PA plus you can usually get non-keeper platoon types on the cheap.
Then I think I would try to deal two of Tanaka/Darvish/Heaney – grab enough upside SP in the middle rounds and there’s a chance you snag a guy who masters a new pitch/bumps his velo and turns into a keeper.
For me:
Keepers
Abreau
Bogaerts
Gray
Stroman
Pollack
Salazaz
Bubble
Darvish
Heyward
Trouble
Gomez (too many questions)
Piscotty (to many unknowns)
Grandal (not good enough)
Tanaka (elbow X factor)
Heany (see Grandal)
I’d try to package the bottom five in some fashion for upside young catcher and other upside young position play.
I have similar keepers, I could use help with my last 2…Here they are in order of how I value them.
C. Correa
M. Machado
X. Bogearts
K. Schwarber
E. Hosmer
J. Votto
G. Polanco
J. Soler
Options for last 2 spots… (No minor league roster, 1 n/a spot). Keep 10 forever… in order of how I am currently leaning… 6×6 (offensive k’s, L’s are extra cats., k/9 instead of total k’s)
J.P. Crawford
Roberto Osuna
Tyler Glasnow
Danny Salazar
Michael Wacha
Jason Kipnis
Josh Bell
Jose Peraza
Matt Kemp
Dustin Pedroia
Carlos Santana
Carson Smith
Carter Capps
I’d eliminate peraza based off of his low floor, and i’d eliminate kemp and pedroia for inury/age/better options. i’d knock off wacha for injury concerns as well.
Since you;re dealing with k/9, that’d leave me leaning towards salazar and glasnow. if santana were still C eligible, i’d consider him, but that’s not the case.
oh, and throw kipnis in there, too. really just depends on supply and demand with these four, but i’d narrow it down to salazar, glasnow, kipnis, and santana.
so basically you’re now a cleveland fan 🙂
Osuna is too risky to keep. There’s still a lot of talk about moving him back into the rotation. Should that happen, you’d be burning a roster spot as he goes through the growing pains.
Brandon – congrats on your ascent. Here are my two cents.
For sure keep:
Pollock – I’ll take the over on steamer’s projections for Pollock’s roto categories. He was more aggressive last year without sacrificing any contact, so the average will be solid, he’ll steal bases and score runs. In regards to power, I’ve regressed hitters like Gardner and Brantley back to career rates and I’m not inclined to do that with Pollock. Granted, he hit the least amount of fly balls (%) last year but the most left the park, so even if we do regress those rates towards (not to) his career averages, he’s going to poke 16+ HR.
Bogaerts – even though his xHR was 5 and he hit 7, I’m with steamer on those HR projections. I mean, he does seem unpredictable since he’s been so different each season, but for me .270/70/10/70/5 seems like his floor, and for the current environment of SS offense, that’s huge!
Abreu – with question marks in the power department on the first 2 keepers, you’ll need Abreu. I thought his Swstrk rate was going to bottom out his stats, but he improved it dramatically last year. It came at the expense of his BB and ISO, but he should be good for another solid campaign.
Grandal – after shoulder surgery maybe he’ll be the player he was in the first half of last year, all year! Probably not, but even if he is the player he was last year, that’s plenty of value at catcher. It would probably hurt the overall output from your C position if you supplemented him with ellis, but at least you’d receive more PA which means counting stats.
Darvish – 26 to 28 starts from a top 5 strike out pitcher in the game is what you’re getting even if his numbers aren’t what they’d normally be. The improvements he made in his K-BB% will likely suffer, but there’s too much talent to give up on.
Stroman – he’s a darling. Who doesn’t love stroman. Personally, i hope some of the GBs he produced in 15 turn back into Ks, but he was effective to say the least.
Probably Keep
Salazar – I’ve always loved him. His inconsistency is frustrating, but that change up/fastball/slider combo will no doubt log him 200 Ks if he can pitch 185 IP for the Indians or whatever team he’s traded to if the Indians go that route…probably worth monitoring that transaction.
Gomez – just cuz the hips and intercostal strain really did seem to ruin his performance. Also it’s not like his swing or approach is built for long lasting success, but if .255/15 hr/20 sb is the ultimate floor over a full season of PA, he’s probably worth it.
Heyward – you’ve got a lot of 15/15 guys and hers nothing wrong with that in a deep league, so he’s probably worth keeping. Obviously, the worry is that, despite his massive frame, his arms still might be so long and he keeps his swing short more for contact and 2B type power. Luckily he’s prism he’s speedy enough to nab 20 sb on the reg. And ya know, what if he pops 20 hr again? Probably keep him.
Gray – it just depends on how much you believe in his contact management ability. It seems pretty legit, but i still will bet on his ERA being closer to his predictors than his ERA, but he keeps proving me wrong.
Or consider
Schoop – the average was probably very fluky, but he had high BABIPs in the minors and the patience could improve…he was rushed along after all. The K rate isn’t damning, but if his patience increases at all, only good things can happen for the 2B with, I’ll say it, probably has the most raw power at the position
Your call
Heaney – i say this only because Eno likes him. His slider seems neat, and he plays in angel stadium…
Piscotty – that was an impressive debut + evil red magic.
Tanaka – I’d see what you can get