The Cashner Conundrum

Andrew Cashner has been one of those pitchers that has confounded fantasy owners and experts alike. You look at his fastball velocity and you see a pitcher that ranks in the top 10 in baseball. Cashner is pitching at Petco Park which is one of the most accommodating ballparks for hurlers. He definitely has the pedigree since he was a first round selection by the Cubs in the 2008 June Amateur Draft. Cashner induces ground balls at a career rate of 50%. On the surface, these factors alone are very promising and would suggest that Cashner should be a premier young pitcher on the rise.

In 2014 he produced the following line for Fantasy owners…

Clearly the win totals were very disappointing but we know how team dependent wins are so with a poor hitting Padres squad with meager run support we could give him a pass. He did miss games with injury so that capped his numbers. The 2.55 ERA and 1.13 WHIP were very good even if his 6.79 K/9 was not. All in all, a promising showing for a 27 year old pitcher who has dealt with an assortment of injuries and is entering his prime years. With the overhaul to the San Diego offense in the off-season, there were reasons to suggest that Cashner could possibly be a top 40 pitcher or better in 2015 especially if he avoided injury. However, not everyone was on board as Brett Talley took a more cautious position on Cashner in his 1/22/15 article in RotoGraphs, Starting Pitcher Bust Candidates According to Streamer.

As we know, Cashner has not achieved anywhere near top 40 status in 2015 and in fact some would suggest that he took a step backwards. First, let’s take a deeper look at his 2014 numbers….

Looking back, the underlying numbers were cause for some concern coming into 2015. His GB rate was fine, if not a touch below his career numbers. His 6% HR/FB% was very low for him and well below his 10% career numbers so it was unlikely that he could sustain that number. Cashner benefited from a favorable BABIP and LOB% which would suggest that we should not have expected him to repeat his 2.55 ERA. Most troubling was his 8% swinging strike rate which for a pitcher with his apparent stuff was very pedestrian. His xFIP of 3.53 was a better assessment of his actual performance in 2014.

With 80% of the 2015 season in the bank, let’s look at Cashner performance to date….

Certainly these numbers do not suggest that he has advanced as a pitcher this season. His HR/FB rate has risen dramatically and is more in line with his career 10% numbers. While his velocity on his 4 seam fastball has remained at 94.9, he is actually throwing his two seam fastball with greater velocity than last year up 1 mph to 94.6. Then why do we still see a disappointing 8% swinging strike rate?

Cashner told Eno Sarris of FanGraphs last season that he would be throwing more 2 seam fastballs in 2015 in the hopes of getting more quick outs.  He has held true to his promise and this could in part account for his flat 8% swinging strike rate from year to year. In general, heavy use of the 2 seam fastball will often suppress strikeout rates as Brett Talley in his RotoGraphs article had pointed out.

Perhaps we all are enamored with velocity, and there is good reason to be since it is a helpful predictor of performance. Still, we have to ask ourselves what else is going on with Cashner. It’s apparent that we have to examine his arsenal so let’s take a closer look.

Courtesy of Brooks Baseball, here is an overview of Cashner’s repertoire….

Pitch Repertoire At-A-Glance 

Andrew Cashner has thrown 9,157 pitches that have been tracked by the PITCHf/x system between 2010 and 2015, including pitches thrown in the MLB Regular Season, Spring Training and Fall/Winter Ball. In 2015, he has relied primarily on his Sinker using a Two-seam Fastball grip (95mph) and Fourseam Fastball (96mph), also mixing in a Slider (86mph) and Change (87mph). He also rarely throws a Curve (81mph).

BETA Feature:
Basic description of 2015 pitches compared to other RHP:
His sinker has well above average velo and has little sinking action compared to a true sinker. His fourseam fastball has well above average velo, results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers’ fourseamers and has slight armside run. His slider results in many more groundballs compared to other pitchers’ sliders and has primarily 12-6 movement. His change is slightly firmer than usual. His curve has very little depth, is basically never swung at and missed compared to other pitchers’ curves, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers’ curves, is slightly harder than usual and has primarily 12-6 movement. 

As we know, pitching success is not based solely on the velocity of pitches that a pitcher throws. It has a lot to do with his overall repertoire, focus, movement, elevation, command, repeatability, ability to change speeds, and how he sets up batters who attack him from both sides of the plate. A closer look at Cashner’s numbers in 2015 reveals an emerging issue with splits.

FanGraphs, Baseball Analysts and The Hardball Times have done some fine analysis of Lefty-Righty splits with the prevailing data clearly showing what we intuitively believe that in most cases pitchers are more effective against same handed batters. This is one of the over-arching principals used in selecting batters in DFS play. Going a bit deeper, the general consensus is that pitches with a vertical action are most effective for a pitcher against opposite handed batters and horizontal movement is best against same handed batters. While the four seam fastball seems to have neutral splits, the most effective weapons against batters are listed below…

Of course these are broad general statements but let’s apply them to Cashner. Since Cashner does not throw a cutter, it is his change and curveball that should be among the most effective pitches against left handed batters. Looking at the numbers, Cashner has thrown 172 changeups to lefty batters through the end of July and they are hitting .378 off of this pitch. He has thrown 40 curveballs to left batters through the end of July and they are hitting .500 off this pitch. In addition, his change which he throws about 16% of the time to left handed hitters, has lost about an inch in drop since the start of the season.

The data seems to indicate that Cashner does not have a really good solution right now against left handed batters. He rarely uses the curve, and when he does, it is a pitch that Brooks Baseball describes as having very little depth.  As we noted, his change has become less effective over the course of the season. Cashner’s overall numbers this season seem to support this assertion as left handed hitters have a .809 OPS against him.

When compared against his 2014 numbers below, we can see why his pitching success has eroded. In addition to some normal regression, primarily it has been his performance against left handed hitters in 2015 that accounts for the decline in effectiveness. And of course savvy managers have picked up on this trend and have stacked their lineups with left handed hitters against Cashner.

Why is this recent lack of effectiveness against left handed batters now so significant? From a statistical standpoint, FanGraphs analysis indicates that platoon splits for pitchers seem to stabilize after 500-700 plate appearances against each handed batter. Although Cashner has been in the Majors since 2010, he has only pitched 555 innings so he reached the threshold for plate appearances against each handed batter only this season.

With a larger statistically relevant sample, we are gaining better insight into the type of pitcher that Cashner is now and where he needs to improve to reach what we all believe is his significant potential. In the final analysis, unless he can come up with a better solution against left handed hitting, unfortunately we may not see that potential realized.