RotoGraphs Consensus Rankings – May/June Update: Outfielders
We’re making our way around the diamond with our updated rankings and today we are diving into the outfield, a robust fantasy position with plenty of elite-level talent. Here are the positions we’ve done so far and you can also access them via the Positional Rankings in the right sidebar:
If you feel we missed someone, please let us know in the comments.
FYI: the table is sortable!
| Num | Player | Team | League | Paul | Zach | Mike | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Trout | Angels | AL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 |
| 2 | Andrew McCutchen | Pirates | NL | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2.7 |
| 3 | Bryce Harper | Nationals | NL | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4.3 |
| 4 | Michael Brantley | Indians | AL | 3 | 7 | 9 | 6.3 |
| 5 | Giancarlo Stanton | Marlins | NL | 8 | 8 | 3 | 6.3 |
| 6 | Ryan Braun | Brewers | NL | 9 | 6 | 4 | 6.3 |
| 7 | Carlos Gomez | Brewers | NL | 6 | 10 | 5 | 7.0 |
| 8 | Justin Upton | Padres | NL | 5 | 5 | 12 | 7.3 |
| 9 | Adam Jones | Orioles | AL | 16 | 3 | 8 | 9.0 |
| 10 | Starling Marte | Pirates | NL | 7 | 9 | 13 | 9.7 |
| 11 | Jose Bautista | Blue Jays | AL | 13 | 11 | 6 | 10.0 |
| 12 | George Springer | Astros | AL | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11.7 |
| 13 | Nelson Cruz | Mariners | AL | 11 | 13 | 16 | 13.3 |
| 14 | Mookie Betts | Red Sox | AL | 10 | 20 | 15 | 15.0 |
| 15 | Hanley Ramirez | Red Sox | AL | 23 | 15 | 10 | 16.0 |
| 16 | Yoenis Cespedes | Tigers | AL | 18 | 18 | 25 | 20.3 |
| 17 | Kole Calhoun | Angels | AL | 22 | 23 | 18 | 21.0 |
| 18 | A.J. Pollock | Diamondbacks | NL | 15 | 16 | 35 | 22.0 |
| 19 | Alex Gordon | Royals | AL | 24 | 21 | 26 | 23.7 |
| 20 | Charlie Blackmon | Rockies | NL | 17 | 27 | 28 | 24.0 |
| 21 | Matt Holliday | Cardinals | NL | 43 | 14 | 17 | 24.7 |
| 22 | Billy Hamilton | Reds | NL | 25 | 32 | 20 | 25.7 |
| 23 | Hunter Pence | Giants | NL | 14 | 44 | 22 | 26.7 |
| 24 | Jay Bruce | Reds | NL | 19 | 38 | 27 | 28.0 |
| 25 | Joc Pederson | Dodgers | NL | 20 | 28 | 37 | 28.3 |
| 26 | Yasiel Puig | Dodgers | NL | 28 | 43 | 14 | 28.3 |
| 27 | J.D. Martinez | Tigers | AL | 27 | 36 | 23 | 28.7 |
| 28 | Brett Gardner | Yankees | AL | 21 | 22 | 44 | 29.0 |
| 29 | Corey Dickerson | Rockies | NL | 39 | 19 | 30 | 29.3 |
| 30 | Brandon Moss | Indians | AL | 35 | 26 | 34 | 31.7 |
| 31 | Ben Revere | Phillies | NL | 32 | 32.0 | ||
| 32 | Jacoby Ellsbury | Yankees | AL | 40 | 39 | 19 | 32.7 |
| 33 | Mark Trumbo | Diamondbacks | NL | 50 | 17 | 31 | 32.7 |
| 34 | Lorenzo Cain | Royals | AL | 29 | 24 | 48 | 33.7 |
| 35 | Gregory Polanco | Pirates | NL | 30 | 33 | 40 | 34.3 |
| 36 | Jorge Soler | Cubs | NL | 48 | 29 | 29 | 35.3 |
| 37 | Josh Reddick | Athletics | AL | 26 | 35 | 51 | 37.3 |
| 38 | Marcell Ozuna | Marlins | NL | 38 | 42 | 32 | 37.3 |
| 39 | Jason Heyward | Cardinals | NL | 33 | 45 | 38 | 38.7 |
| 40 | Dexter Fowler | Cubs | NL | 37 | 25 | 54 | 38.7 |
| 41 | Torii Hunter | Twins | AL | 31 | 40 | 47 | 39.3 |
| 42 | Wil Myers | Padres | NL | 51 | 31 | 50 | 44.0 |
| 43 | Denard Span | Nationals | NL | 34 | 30 | 69 | 44.3 |
| 44 | Matt Kemp | Padres | NL | 61 | 50 | 24 | 45.0 |
| 45 | Steven Souza | Rays | AL | 36 | 55 | 45 | 45.3 |
| 46 | Shin-Soo Choo | Rangers | AL | 42 | 51 | 43 | 45.3 |
| 47 | Nori Aoki | Giants | NL | 44 | 34 | 59 | 45.7 |
| 48 | Melky Cabrera | White Sox | AL | 54 | 52 | 33 | 46.3 |
| 49 | Ben Zobrist | Athletics | AL | 60 | 37 | 42 | 46.3 |
| 50 | Ryan Zimmerman | Nationals | NL | 49 | 49.0 | ||
| 51 | Curtis Granderson | Mets | NL | 41 | 46 | 62 | 49.7 |
| 52 | Christian Yelich | Marlins | NL | 59 | 54 | 36 | 49.7 |
| 53 | Alex Rios | Royals | AL | 56 | 53 | 41 | 50.0 |
| 54 | Avisail Garcia | White Sox | AL | 47 | 70 | 39 | 52.0 |
| 55 | Marlon Byrd | Reds | NL | 53 | 47 | 57 | 52.3 |
| 56 | Rusney Castillo | Red Sox | AL | 67 | 49 | 46 | 54.0 |
| 57 | Ender Inciarte | Diamondbacks | NL | 46 | 41 | 76 | 54.3 |
| 58 | Rajai Davis | Tigers | AL | 45 | 63 | 68 | 58.7 |
| 59 | Steve Pearce | Orioles | AL | 64 | 60 | 53 | 59.0 |
| 60 | Alex Guerrero | Dodgers | NL | 52 | 66 | 63 | 60.3 |
| 61 | Carlos Gonzalez | Rockies | NL | 87 | 73 | 21 | 60.3 |
| 62 | Adam Eaton | White Sox | AL | 63 | 59 | 64 | 62.0 |
| 63 | Leonys Martin | Rangers | AL | 65 | 69 | 52 | 62.0 |
| 64 | Michael Cuddyer | Mets | NL | 66 | 64 | 56 | 62.0 |
| 65 | Cameron Maybin | Braves | NL | 55 | 75 | 58 | 62.7 |
| 66 | Austin Jackson | Mariners | AL | 91 | 48 | 49 | 62.7 |
| 67 | Anthony Gose | Tigers | AL | 58 | 57 | 75 | 63.3 |
| 68 | Josh Hamilton | Rangers | AL | 68 | 68 | 55 | 63.7 |
| 69 | Angel Pagan | Giants | NL | 75 | 65 | 61 | 67.0 |
| 70 | Andre Ethier | Dodgers | NL | 57 | 67 | 78 | 67.3 |
| 71 | Nick Markakis | Braves | NL | 78 | 61 | 65 | 68.0 |
| 72 | Delino Deshields Jr. | Rangers | AL | 62 | 62 | 82 | 68.7 |
| 73 | David Peralta | Diamondbacks | NL | 71 | 72 | 71 | 71.3 |
| 74 | Seth Smith | Mariners | AL | 79 | 58 | 81 | 72.7 |
| 75 | Colby Rasmus | Astros | AL | 81 | 71 | 70 | 74.0 |
| 76 | Juan Lagares | Mets | NL | 74 | 79 | 72 | 75.0 |
| 77 | Michael Bourn | Indians | AL | 85 | 74 | 66 | 75.0 |
| 78 | Jake Marisnick | Astros | AL | 89 | 56 | 80 | 75.0 |
| 79 | Billy Burns | Athletics | AL | 69 | 82 | 77 | 76.0 |
| 80 | Desmond Jennings | Rays | AL | 80 | 88 | 60 | 76.0 |
| 81 | Jimmy Paredes | Orioles | AL | 77 | 77.0 | ||
| 82 | Randal Grichuk | Cardinals | NL | 73 | 76 | 85 | 78.0 |
| 83 | Travis Snider | Orioles | AL | 84 | 78 | 73 | 78.3 |
| 84 | Kevin Kiermaier | Rays | AL | 99 | 81 | 67 | 82.3 |
| 85 | Preston Tucker | Astros | AL | 70 | 92 | 93 | 85.0 |
| 86 | Michael Taylor | Nationals | NL | 72 | 92 | 93 | 85.7 |
| 87 | Oswaldo Arcia | Twins | AL | 76 | 92 | 93 | 87.0 |
| 88 | Matt Joyce | Angels | AL | 101 | 86 | 74 | 87.0 |
| 89 | David DeJesus | Rays | AL | 101 | 80 | 83 | 88.0 |
| 90 | Brandon Guyer | Rays | AL | 92 | 87 | 87 | 88.7 |
| 91 | Chris Colabello | Blue Jays | AL | 98 | 84 | 84 | 88.7 |
| 92 | Peter Bourjos | Cardinals | NL | 101 | 77 | 88 | 88.7 |
| 93 | Carlos Beltran | Yankees | AL | 82 | 92 | 93 | 89.0 |
| 94 | Khris Davis | Brewers | NL | 97 | 91 | 79 | 89.0 |
| 95 | Will Venable | Padres | NL | 83 | 92 | 93 | 89.3 |
| 96 | Drew Stubbs | Rockies | NL | 94 | 83 | 92 | 89.7 |
| 97 | Odubel Herrera | Phillies | NL | 86 | 92 | 93 | 90.3 |
| 98 | David Murphy | Indians | AL | 88 | 92 | 93 | 91.0 |
| 99 | Chris Coghlan | Cubs | NL | 90 | 92 | 93 | 91.7 |
| 100 | Darin Ruf | Phillies | NL | 101 | 85 | 89 | 91.7 |
| 101 | Eddie Rosario | Twins | AL | 93 | 92 | 93 | 92.7 |
| 102 | Chris Young | Yankees | AL | 101 | 91 | 86 | 92.7 |
| 103 | Mark Canha | Athletics | AL | 95 | 92 | 93 | 93.3 |
| 104 | Brock Holt | Red Sox | AL | 101 | 89 | 90 | 93.3 |
| 105 | Kelly Johnson | Braves | NL | 96 | 92 | 93 | 93.7 |
| 106 | Mike Aviles | Indians | AL | 101 | 90 | 91 | 94.0 |
| 107 | Scott Van Slyke | Dodgers | NL | 100 | 92 | 93 | 95.0 |
Note – I purposely left the openings for Zimmerman and Paredes on the other guys because they’re going to fill in their ranks there as they were late additions.
Instead of a bunch of others notes on why I ranked how I did, I’ll answer any questions about my rankings or thought process in the comments as will the others if you leave them specific questions. I ranked 100 players, Zach has 91, and Mike has 92.
Adam Jones Paul at 16 and zach at 3? Why? Thanks.
His appeal is a measure of certainty to his numbers because of how consistent he’s been these last several years. That deserves weight in his ranking and it’s why I have him at 16, but I have a hard time getting him much higher.
Even with last year’s awesome season, he was just 11th. He’s really good, but top 10 was tough for me as some of the emerging guys are just better, IMO.
Why so high on Betts? Still a believer because of the low BABIP?
Everything is pretty much in line with his sample from last year when he .291 so yeah, the low BABIP is a piece of it for sure. But even as-is, he’s pacing toward essentially a Charlie Blackmon-lite season so since I see the AVG shooting up, he basically becomes full-on Charlie Blackmon with a couple fewer HRs and couple more SBs.
Makes sense, thanks.
Paul, can you elucidate the Stanton ranking? I see a couple of red flags but wanted to know which you were worried about most. Thanks!
He’s ranked 8th, I’m not really worried about anything. When sitting in the top 10, you can just as easily be 3 as 8 so it’s splitting hairs. It feels low because he’s so good, but I’m still very much into Stanton as a beast fantasy asset.
Braun over Stanton? In 2011, perhaps.
What are you seeing with Springer to rank him higher than Pederson, or even Cruz?
Already pacing toward 20 HR-30 SB without even really heating up yet. Lots to love here. And I had Cruz higher. I can’t answer for the others.
How high does Souza jump up in OBP leagues?
About 10 spots for me, I think
Does Joey Bats jump up at all in OBP leauges?
Joey Bats takes a huge jump in OBP leagues
Paul, seems like injuries scare you off more in these rankings than most. Souza and Ozuna over Dickerson. Is it all injury risk to you? He’s played well through the foot injury so far this year.
Yeah I’m a huge Dickerson fan, but the plantar fasciitis has me buggin’ on him. I could see it lingering all year and even causing another DL stint at some point so I played it cautious despite being a big fan of his game when healthy.
He was great in April, but it seems the foot got too intense in May, yielding a .600 OPS in 12 games and of course the DL stint that he’s currently in the midst of
He’s probably not relevant in anything but deeper and NL leagues, but where would Gerardo Parra rank? He should be seeing everyday AB’s with Davis being out the next 2 months or so.
NL-only filler
Paul joked about letting other people do the math/formulas on the recent podcast, but I didn’t know he couldn’t count passed 101.
Kidding aside how do you decide how many PAs you’re going to get from the injured guys like Puig, Dickerson, etc…?
Didn’t make sense for me to keep going so much past the other guys because then it’d just be a buncha 92s and 93s in those columns so what’s the point, ya know?
That’s tough and that’s my struggle w/those guys. I’m in the camp that generally moves away from injuries. We have about 4 months left and I’d dock a couple weeks off of both the guys you named. And I worry that Dickerson will be playing at well less than 100% even when on the field bc of that foot. Thankfully Coors can cover some of that.
Just having fun about the 101 thing. Curious did the other guys just forget to rank Revere? I can understand Zimmerman and Paredes because they probably stayed in the infield ranks.
Paul, why so down on Holliday? His power is dead, but the rest of his game has been great.
You answer it within your question. Without the power, what is he really? I’m not sure I listed him low enough to be honest, though I expect some pop to return so I settled there.
But in OBP leagues he’d have to shoot way up in your ranks, right?
Why the Soler hate? Just kidding Paul, thanks for doing this.(but seriously though, why the Soler hate…)
Is it hate, though? That ranking is like half of where he stands year-to-date on the Player Rate. So I’m still planing for a big surge from where he is right now.
“Hate” as compared to your fellow rankers ranking of him.
Not that these guys would be particularly high in the rankings, but a couple with OF-eligibility I expected to find towards the latter-third of this list include (and whom I have at least one share of):
Josh Harrison
Yasmany Tomas
Brandon Moss
Whoops, just found Moss – but not the other two.
Moss ranks 30th.
Puig? A divisive player in the field and on RotoGraphs Rankings. Can you explain your placement and, if possible, the wide range in your colleagues’s rankings?
Mike’s generally unmoved by two months of action. Zach appears “super-concerned” about the injury. And I’m merely “concerned” about it. Once back, I’ll feel more comfortable about slotting him high, which is obvious, I guess. But either way, if he’s back and Puiging (even if it’s like a solid, but not AMAZING .800 OPS) by the midseason update, don’t be surprised if I have him in the top 10. Big fan, just injury worry.
I’d be interested to see some of the reasonings behind Gomez and Brantley. Is it just that you and Mike really appreciate the upside that Gomez comes with? Otherwise, Brantely is killing Gomez and the only thing that really looks out of place from 2014 to 2015 is the BB%.
You know what, that’s entirely fair. I checked both out and I’m sold. I was a big believer of Brantley in the spring, ranking him 6th and he’s done nothing but excel and show that last year was legit.
Hit refresh.
Wow, that actually gave him a healthy bump in the rankings! I like them both, but tend to be sold more on recent samples without extreme outliers, which is why I asked about these two.
I’m glad you asked. I kind of auto-slotted those two initially, knowing I loved both and both were successful so far this year, but I didn’t deep-dive on them until you said something and I realized that Brantley is the better asset right now. A comp since the start of 2014 reads well for Brantley (not that Gomez has been a slouch). In the end, his AVG edge was too much.
For what reasons do you see Brantley being better than Andrew Mccutchen?
Just as we tend to overreact about the severity of an injury and how much it affects a player in the midst of it, we equally tend to assume said injuries are gone never to return once a player shows his awesome side again. I didn’t think Cutch was toast when he was struggling w/the back, but I don’t think it’s 100% in the clear now that he’s raking, either, thus it cost him a couple spots.
Doesn’t Brantley have a bad back as well? Shouldn’t the same logic apply to him?
Just curious, not being critical.
Oh snap, see, I forgot. So you’re right, I was doing what I said we as a fantasy community tend to do.
I’m sticking with Brantley where he is because we’re talking about one spot and I honestly don’t see much difference in my 2-8, but I’m glad you brought up Brantley’s back because I had forgotten and I don’t believe it’s just magically gone, especially as someone with a super crappy back… and I don’t even play major league baseball.
I’m a huge Indians and Brantley fan and I love the ranking, but I guess I have to inform you that it had recently been reported that Brantley’s back has actually been bugging him again and he is not 100%. It has been reflective of his production the past couple weeks, which has actually been pretty poor, or at least not up to his recent standards. I’m not worried about it, but his power production could slip, and without the 20 HRish power, I think he falls down this list a good 10 spots.
I agree with your ranking of Kemp at 61, but do you have any insight as to why Mike is so bullish on him, ranking him at 24?
Same with Gonzalez – Mike has him as 21 while Paul and Zach have him at 87 and 73. One of these things is not like the others…
Paul, you have Dickerson ranked 39. In a 10 team H2H points league would you feel comfortable dropping him if you already had Cutch, Bautista, Pollock, and Fowler?
I think that would depend on who you’re adding and why. I would say that in a H2H and daily league (I don’t know if it’s a daily league) Dickerson could be nice to have because you can stream him just in Coors when he comes back.
Weekly league. Thinking of picking up some MI help by picking up Harrison, Forsyth, or Devon Travis. Other option would be picking up Clay Buchoulz/Jesse Chavez.
Just tough because I spent a 10th round pick on Dickerson but who knows when I will be able to start him again.
Whether its dropping Dickerson or someone else, Jesse Chavez needs to be owned.
Billy Burns seems low compared to comps like Aoki, Eaton, Rajai, Pagan, Inciarte, etc… if he hits leadoff for the A’s all year and steals 30 bases won’t he be at least as valuable as those others?
I would put him ahead of everyone you mentioned other than Eaton and Aoki. Rajai is a platoon player which hurts his value, Pagan is solid but really doesnt do any one thing so good that makes him an overly attractive fantasy option. Especially since his speed/power have gone away it seems. Inciarte is solid, but again, isnt outstanding in any one category.
Even Burns vs. Eaton and Aoki is close, with me giving the edge to Eaton and Aoki by a narrow margin.
Yeah, heck he could even do better than Billy Hamilton the rest of the way if Hamilton keeps batting 7th…
jacoby seems low even if he takes a month to come back
Especially seeing him right behind Ben Revere
Is there any reason why Mookie Betts is rated higher than AJ Pollock? No matter how deeply I dive in the stats, Pollock looks better. They have similar amounts of ML experience, both are medium pop big speed, both look like .800+ OPS guys, but Pollock looks rock solid over the last two years. The only big difference I can see is that Pollock is five years older. Dare I suggest…East coast bias?
If I was dead, I would be rolling over in my grave seeing Joc Pederson at #25.
Does Brantley go up or down in an OBP league?
My first thought would be up, but considering he is already at #4 and the guys in front of him are also excellent plays in OBP leagues, I would say he probably stays put where he is.
Souza at 45? Ok.
In a H2H Roto 12 team 6×6 mixed keeper league added (OBPx Lose, Holds+Saves).
C Martin
1b Goldy
2b Betts
3b Seager
SS Hanley
OF McCutchen
OF Joey Bats
OF Pollock
Until Yelich
Bench Castillo, Kang
DL Puig
SP Sale
SP Grienke
RP Giles
RP O’Day
P J. Smith
P Fiers
BN Hammel, Folty, McHugh
Pull the trigger on sending Castillo n Puig 4 Calhoun n Arrieta?
It seems like for all these, you could just replace Mike’s rankings with the words “pre-season rankings.” I understand not wanting to make knee jerk reactions to medium sample sizes, but at some point don’t you need to adjust guys like Kemp, CarGo, Pollack, Pederson when the data and eye tests seem to match up respectively?
Agreed, at some point they become too over-reliant on really stale information that’s being supplanted by newer, often better, information.
Any idea of how the Trumbo trade affects the D-Backs OF? I already have Pollock, but now I’m thinking that Peralta is worth scooping up in 12 team mixer?
It bumps him up, I don’t think I would drop anyone important for him, but if you have a roster spot open and it’s a deeper league, he is definitely worth grabbing.
No, since they made the move to allow Tomas to move to Trumbo’s position when Jake Lamb is healthy again. At least I think.
Any value in Jayson Werth this year for a guy with a DL spot to spend?
No love for Kevin Pillar? Playing everyday with decent speed and and a little pop. Thought I would see him above a lot of the part-timers/injuries at the bottom of the list.
I cannot imagine how any fantasy expert could possibly have Pollock ranked as the 35th best outfielder.ESPN player rater currently has him at #9 overall and the 5th best OF. I know one thing, I’m sure glad I have him on my team.
Can someone explain the Kole Calhoun love? Nearly everyone has him higher than Joc Pederson, and I would love that trade (straight-up) as a Calhoun owner.
(Seriously wondering what’s so great about him. I auto-drafted the guy when I had internet issues, and have been stuck with him)
I had Joc ahead so I’m not gonna focus there, but as for Calhoun and why he’s still pretty high for me, it’s because he’s a do-everything guy. Nothing is extraordinary, but it’s all solid – like Brantley before he beasted. He’s in a cold snap right now, but he’s really good.
would you trade Castillo n Puig 4 Calhoun n Arrieta?
Cruz should be higher.
Am I insane for thinking Ben Paulsen is more than a flash in the pan? He plays half his games in Coors and I can see the rebuilding Rockies keeping him at 1B to see what they got and selling Morneau to a contender.
Where’s the Federalist, Jon Jay? Did you guys forget he’s back from the DL? While he’s losing significant playing time to Grichuk, surely his rankings can’t be worse than the 5th outfielder Bourjos.
Paul and Zack both with big G at #8 OF????? Dumbest thing I’ve seen all day.
I honestly don’t get the Brantley love. Unless we’re ignoring steamer/zips completely, springer dwarfs him in power and tops him in steals. Is the average bump worth that much? Or am I missing reasoning for a disagreement with the projections?
How does one reconcile rankings that are based off of more sophisticated scoring and keeper systems to rankings that would be more appropriate for more basic leagues?
For instance, I feel like much of the commentary in the various Fangraphs Baseball Chats will cite things like K/BB rates or OBP when choosing to rank someone like Mookie Betts ahead of Stanton or something like that. Whereas, in my league…only 5 standard categories count for offense and you just keep 3 players without having to give up a draft pick or designate a certain amount of budget towards those keepers.
The gap between rankings for certain leagues can be pretty large. Any thoughts on how to start reconciling these rankings to my specific league? Are the assumptions reflected in these rankings for league type/scoring defined anywhere?