Bullpen Report: June 3, 2016

• Fernando Rodney blew his third save of the season in pretty sloppy fashion last night. The righty’s ERA is now up to 6.85. While his xFIP is a slightly better 4.90, a 19% K% isn’t going to cut it if you are walking 12% of the batters you face. Captain Crooked Hat’s velocity and SwStr% haven’t fallen off a cliff, so there is still some positive signs here, but the footsteps of Carson Smith might be growing just a bit louder. Speaking of Smith, the setup man tossed another scoreless inning yesterday evening and now owns a 2.20 xFIP. He can help your rates in all leagues, but if saves are at a major premium in your deeper formats, speculate away.

• For the first time in nearly 75 innings, Aroldis Chapman gave up a home run. Unfortunately, it wasn’t one of the “solo homer in a three-run game” variety, but rather a game-tying shot to Maikel Franco. Chapman has had an interesting season so far. While today was technically his first blow save, his 1.43 WHIP would be the worst of his career. For the fourth season in a row, his BB% is trended the wrong direction, and his K% is “all the way down” to 38%. All of this leads to a mediocre 3.48 xFIP, which would be the highest mark he’s ever posted (and well above his rates the last few years). The good news? Like Rodney above, Chapman still has the stuff. His fastball continues to flirt with triple digits and his SwStr% is right there with last year’s career high mark. Maybe the Cuban lefty could benefit from throwing a few more strikes, but hopefully, better things are ahead for his owners.

• Brad Ziegler gave up a pop to A.J. Pierzynski, but otherwise escaped trouble to pick up his second save in as many days. The submarining righty’s ERA is all the way down to 1.80, but a 3.62 xFIP causes you to question the .197 BABIP and 85% LOB%. That said, Ziegler has a career 1.00 xFIP-ERA, so keeping that GB% way up and (likely) weaker contact on his fly balls may be a sustainable skill. It’s worth mentioning the Arizona reliever because it seems like deposed closer Addison Reed is working his way back into the ninth inning discussion. It’s no secret that the DBacks have never really loved Ziegler’s platoon splits as a ninth inning guy and, while a tiny sample size, Reed has a 4/0 K/BB over his last five outings (all scoreless). If the former White Sox prospect was dropped in your league, it might be time to look into picking him up, even if you just want him on the pine for a week or two. Of note, Arizona also acquired Dominic Leone in today’s Mark Trumbo trade. Leone hasn’t been fantastic this year, but may be a nice high-upside stash in dynasty leagues, especially with Reed looking less like the DBacks “closer of the future” in 2015.

• Don’t look now, but Sergio Romo‘s 1.57 xFIP is the third best in baseball over the last month. Also don’t look now, but while Santiago Casilla’s 2.82 ERA isn’t bad, his 4.14 xFIP highlights the fact that he really needs to get the walks back under control if he wants to remain successful going forward. Romo’s strikeout rate dipped the last few years (even though his SwStr% didn’t), but he has the K% all the way up to 37% so far in 2015. Even with the mediocre fastball velocity, the slider looks tight and back to where it was a few years ago. While Casilla is safe for now, Romo seems like a win-win speculative add where he can rack up K’s and help rates for now, while being a nice lottery ticket for later.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]