Bullpen Report: June 3, 2016

Fernando Rodney blew his third save of the season in pretty sloppy fashion last night. The righty’s ERA is now up to 6.85. While his xFIP is a slightly better 4.90, a 19% K% isn’t going to cut it if you are walking 12% of the batters you face. Captain Crooked Hat’s velocity and SwStr% haven’t fallen off a cliff, so there is still some positive signs here, but the footsteps of Carson Smith might be growing just a bit louder. Speaking of Smith, the setup man tossed another scoreless inning yesterday evening and now owns a 2.20 xFIP. He can help your rates in all leagues, but if saves are at a major premium in your deeper formats, speculate away.

• For the first time in nearly 75 innings, Aroldis Chapman gave up a home run. Unfortunately, it wasn’t one of the “solo homer in a three-run game” variety, but rather a game-tying shot to Maikel Franco. Chapman has had an interesting season so far. While today was technically his first blow save, his 1.43 WHIP would be the worst of his career. For the fourth season in a row, his BB% is trended the wrong direction, and his K% is “all the way down” to 38%. All of this leads to a mediocre 3.48 xFIP, which would be the highest mark he’s ever posted (and well above his rates the last few years). The good news? Like Rodney above, Chapman still has the stuff. His fastball continues to flirt with triple digits and his SwStr% is right there with last year’s career high mark. Maybe the Cuban lefty could benefit from throwing a few more strikes, but hopefully, better things are ahead for his owners.

Brad Ziegler gave up a pop to A.J. Pierzynski, but otherwise escaped trouble to pick up his second save in as many days. The submarining righty’s ERA is all the way down to 1.80, but a 3.62 xFIP causes you to question the .197 BABIP and 85% LOB%. That said, Ziegler has a career 1.00 xFIP-ERA, so keeping that GB% way up and (likely) weaker contact on his fly balls may be a sustainable skill. It’s worth mentioning the Arizona reliever because it seems like deposed closer Addison Reed is working his way back into the ninth inning discussion. It’s no secret that the DBacks have never really loved Ziegler’s platoon splits as a ninth inning guy and, while a tiny sample size, Reed has a 4/0 K/BB over his last five outings (all scoreless). If the former White Sox prospect was dropped in your league, it might be time to look into picking him up, even if you just want him on the pine for a week or two. Of note, Arizona also acquired Dominic Leone in today’s Mark Trumbo trade. Leone hasn’t been fantastic this year, but may be a nice high-upside stash in dynasty leagues, especially with Reed looking less like the DBacks “closer of the future” in 2015.

• Don’t look now, but Sergio Romo‘s 1.57 xFIP is the third best in baseball over the last month. Also don’t look now, but while Santiago Casilla’s 2.82 ERA isn’t bad, his 4.14 xFIP highlights the fact that he really needs to get the walks back under control if he wants to remain successful going forward. Romo’s strikeout rate dipped the last few years (even though his SwStr% didn’t), but he has the K% all the way up to 37% so far in 2015. Even with the mediocre fastball velocity, the slider looks tight and back to where it was a few years ago. While Casilla is safe for now, Romo seems like a win-win speculative add where he can rack up K’s and help rates for now, while being a nice lottery ticket for later.

Closer Grid:

Closer First Second DL/Minors
Arizona Brad Ziegler Addison Reed Daniel Hudson Enrique Burgos
Atlanta Jason Grilli Jim Johnson Luis Avilan
Baltimore Zach Britton Darren O’Day Tommy Hunter
Boston Koji Uehara Junichi Tazawa Alexi Ogando
CHI (NL) Hector Rondon Jason Motte Pedro Strop
CHI (AL) David Robertson Jacob Petricka Zach Duke
Cincy Aroldis Chapman Jumbo Diaz Tony Cingrani Sean Marshall
Cleveland Cody Allen Bryan Shaw Zach McAllister
Colorado John Axford Rafael Betancourt Boone Logan Adam Ottavino
Detroit Joakim Soria Joba Chamberlain Angel Nesbitt Joe Nathan
Houston Luke Gregerson Chad Qualls Pat Neshek
KC Greg Holland Wade Davis Kelvin Herrera
LAA Huston Street Joe Smith Fernando Salas
LAD Kenley Jansen Yimi Garcia Chris Hatcher Pedro Baez
Miami A.J. Ramos Bryan Morris Carter Capps Steve Cishek
Milwaukee Francisco Rodriguez Jeremy Jeffress Will Smith
Minnesota Glen Perkins Blaine Boyer Brian Duensing Casey Fien
NY (NL) Jeurys Familia Carlos Torres Sean Gilmartin Jenrry Mejia
NY (AL) Andrew Miller Dellin Betances Justin Wilson Chris Martin
Oakland Tyler Clippard Evan Scribner Dan Otero Sean Doolittle
Philly Jonathan Papelbon Ken Giles Luis Garcia
Pittsburgh Mark Melancon Tony Watson Arquimedes Caminero
St. Louis Trevor Rosenthal Seth Maness Matt Belisle Jordan Walden
SD Craig Kimbrel Joaquin Benoit Dale Thayer
SF Santiago Casilla Sergio Romo Jeremy Affeldt
Seattle Fernando Rodney Carson Smith Tom Wilhelmsen Danny Farquhar
TB Brad Boxberger Jake McGee Kevin Jepsen
Texas Shawn Tolleson Keone Kela Ross Ohlendorf Neftali Feliz
Toronto Brett Cecil Roberto Osuna Steve Delabar Miguel Castro
Wash. Drew Storen Aaron Barrett Casey Janssen Casey Janssen

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]





There are few things Colin loves more in life than a pitcher with a single-digit BB%. Find him on Twitter @soxczar.

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Joey DeClercq
8 years ago

It would be nice to see an update about the Padres. It seems like Maurer might be the guy next in line behind Kimbrel?

mattmaison
8 years ago
Reply to  Joey DeClercq

Benoit is being used in higher leverage than anyone else in the ‘pen other than Kimbrel, and I would think Thayer (done it before) and Quackenbush would get a shot before Maurer. I wouldn’t be surprised if the next opening in the rotation goes to Maurer though.