Roto Riteup: May 5, 2015
I’m not sure how Zach Sanders allowed Star Wars day to go by without a word about it, especially seeing how we’re getting a new Star Wars film this year. Unacceptable.
On today’s agenda:
1. Alex Cobb encounters a setback
2. Consider Yunel Escobar
3. Quick thoughts on Chase Whitley
4. Streaming Pitching Options
Alex Cobb encounters a setback
The Rays rotation took another potential body blow yesterday as Cobb will be shut down for two or three days and then re-evaluated. He had been on the recovery path, however he was scratched from a scheduled session of flat ground throwing on Sunday. Details are still scarce and what could be construed as good news is Rays manager Kevin Cash called it just “a little bit of a setback.”
Consider Yunel Escobar
With Anthony Rendon now hampered by an oblique strain and Hanley Ramirez being removed from yesterday’s game with a shoulder sprain, Escobar is a player who can fill in at both third base and shortstop. He lacks the power of Rendon or Ramirez, but in the short term Escobar is serviceable at either position.
Prior to yesterday’s 5-for-5 game Escobar had been hitting at a .271/.326/.376 clip in 92 plate appearances. He’s shown a walk rate close to or above 10% as recently as 2013 and has been moved up to the two-hole in recent games. The right-handed hitting Escobar doesn’t show a significant platoon split, owning a 104 wRC+ against southpaws and a 99 wRC+ versus righties. For a player widely available, Escobar offers some average, the occasional dinger and potential for a solid on-base percentage. He’s available to pick up in 85% of CBS formats as well as 95% of ESPN and Yahoo! leagues.
Quick thoughts on Chase Whitley
After experimenting with a curve throughout spring training, it appears as though Whitley has adopted it into his arsenal. The new pitch has been thrown 19 times thus far as per Brooks Baseball, though it should be noted at the time of writing the Roto Riteup, Whitley’s game yesterday was yet to be hand charted. Whitley managed to generated 11 whiffs out of 90 pitches yesterday and posted six strikeouts to go with them. Now with an 11:1 strikeout to walk rate in two starts spanning 12 innings, he may be worth an add as a spot-starter in deep leagues. Standard 12-team formats can leave him to the waiver wire as a stream candidate, but make sure to pay attention to his pitch repertoire as the season progresses. If the curve ball becomes another weapon to go with his already stellar change-up and solid slider, the 25-year-old could be on the verge of a breakout. He’s owned in 20% of CBS leagues and less than 5% of ESPN or Yahoo! formats.
Streaming Pitching Options
If you enjoy streaming pitchers, tune into the Roto Riteup for recommendations each and every day.
A pitcher for today: Jesse Chavez at MIN (Trevor May)
Chavez can miss bats as his career 8.55 K/9 as a starter suggests. The Twins have struggled in the early weeks against right-handed pitching to the tune of a 23rd ranked 84 wRC+ and the sixth highest strikeout rate. Chavez is available in 50% of CBS formats, 75% of Yahoo! and 90% of ESPN leagues.
A pitcher for tomorrow: Alex Colome at BOS (Justin Masterson)
After cruising through the Baltimore’s 2nd best offense against right-handers in his season debut — albeit he lasted just five innings — Colome heads to Fenway to take on another quality offense. It’s a risky start, but I like Colome enough to start him in my deeper leagues. He’s free to grab in 78% of CBS leagues as well as more than 90% of Yahoo! and ESPN leagues.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
he had a picture of a baby wookie saying may 4th be with you
That’s true, but I hold him to a very high standard.
Speaking of Rays injured pitchers, what are you thoughts on Matt Moore for when he (hopefully) returns mid June? Worth an early roster add and DL spot?
Also curious.
In anything other that shallow 10-teams, yep!
Along same lines, what about Jarrod Parker and Patrick Corbin?
I like Corbin more than Parker. Even accounting for home parks and chances at wins go with Corbin.
Whom do you like better today: Trevor May or Shane Greene? I’ll have an excess of allowed starts this week, so I have to drop one of my starts before Sunday.
Your colleague Brandon Warne says May’s changeup is outstanding now and he’s fixed his problem with walks. Vogt is swinging a hot bat (for me, yay!) and Reddick is good but otherwise that offense looks punchless.
Two bad starts by Greene in a row, but he did manage 8 Ks his last start, which is encouraging. Thoughts? Thanks.
I forgot to mention: my alternative drop for a start is Nick Martinez at Tampa Bay. Good pitcher’s park and a terrible Tampa offense makes me reluctant to drop that start, despite obvious regression on the way for Martinez.
Thanks again.
The Rays have a combined 97 wRC+. Nothing impressive, and slightly below league average. But still better than half the league, including the Red Sox, Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Mets, to name a few.
I’d go with Martinez. His upside is lower, but he’s safer.
As already stated the A’s are awfully strong against righties and Greene in U.S. Cellular is a tough match up.
A’s are tied for second highest wRC+ against righties this year (119) and have hit 23 of their 25 HR off RHP. Do with that what you will.
Thanks for the info. It’s something to consider though Target Field suppresses homers to right field and the A’s will have as many LH batters as possible in the lineup.
BTW, how do I find this type of information? Thanks.
In the top menu ribbon, it’s under Teams, Team Batting Stats, and then just play with the Splits dropdown.
I thank you for the advice from both parties, but if I’m starting Martinez than I still have to drop a Greene or May start.
So, using the instructions provided by EP, I see the White Sox as having the lowest wRC+ of all AL teams for the past two weeks, so Greene is the logical choice.
However, I can’t figure out how to find the splits for handedness. Perhaps it’s my neuropathy meds, but I’ve looked for and failed to find how any of the AL teams do against RHPs.
The splits page is available in the drop-down menu. Once you get to the drop down, scroll until you find which stat you’d like to sort by.
http://i.imgur.com/RWDUTBG.png
Should help, just make sure once you choose your split, sort by Advanced tab. FWIW, the Southsiders own an 85 wRC+ against righties, ranking 24th in baseball. Starting Greene or Martinez looks viable.
How concerned should I be as a Phil Hughes owner in a couple of leagues? I normally wouldnt panic after only a month, but he has a terrible defense behind him and seems to be getting hit harder than last year. I know he was really good in his last start, but I worry his stats are going to take a big hit considering the defensive holes that the Twins have at all 3 OF spots and Santana at short. Should I be preparing to be aggressive on the wire for a possible replacement or does he deserve the benefit of the doubt after last year?
I guess I’m just wondering if I should prepare to be extra aggressive in obtaining someone like Snydergaard if/when he gets the call. I don’t have a ton of great options right now, with the “best” best Ubaldo and Volquez.
You aren’t imagining Hughes giving up harder contact. Still SSS, but this year he owns a 34.1 percent hard contact rate, 17th highest in baseball this year and higher than the 27.2 percent mark he posted last year.
In fact, if Hughes’ 34.1 rate would have rated as the fourth highest hard contact rate last year. Yikes.
His home run rate is quite high, even for him, and his swinging strike rates are down as well. I’d give him a longer leash depending on how deep your league is, but I’d take Noah over him, yeah.
Wow, thanks for those stats. If I could swing Hughes for Brandon Morrow, is that selling too low on Hughes or is that a fair deal? I know Morrow carries a heavy injury risk with him, but I also feel like he could continue to be a very valuable fantasy SP as long as he stays away from Coors and stays on the mound.
Always happy to offer help! I don’t think I’d do a Hughes for Morrow swap. Morrow’s health history *really* scares me.
I’d rather go and stream guys like Jesse Chavez, Tim Hudson, Mike Foltynewicz etc. than jettison Hughes for Morrow.
Anyone else getting really concerned about Longoria? That lineup is doing him no favors in the runs/RBI department, and his power seems to have completely dried up. He’s still under 30, so it doesn’t seem like he’s in too much of a decline phase. Is it just that he’s not getting very good pitches to hit? I’m in a 20 team keeper league and no one will even touch the guy.
I was wondering the same thing, and if i can sell him for anything of value based on his name alone. The only problem is i dont have an adequate 3b available to replace him with
question for all. Longo, trumbo, and melancon for Rizzo and Jhay?
I’d take the Rizzo/Heyward side.
sorry i guess JHay isnt that common of a nickname outside of Pirate fans lol, but its Rizzo/Josh Harrison. Still take the Rizzo/Harrison side? if so how close is it? Thanks again for the advice!
also Josh Harrison/or pedro alvarez to replace longo at third?
Totally agree with David in that you have to take Rizzo and Heyward. Rizzo is a stud and I think as the summer goes along he will continue to heat up. Heyward probably will never live up to the hype he once had, but he’s better than what he has shown so far and at the very least should be a solid 3rd Fantasy Outfielder.
Melancon has become a bit of a junkballer at the Closer’s spot with his lowered velocity and if that doesnt improve I think he could lose the job at some point this summer. Trumbo is Trumbo, good power with little else and Longo is trending much closer to the Kyle Seager/David Wright, etc. side of fantasy Third Basemen, where they are solid options, but not an elite level option like Rizzo can be.
Whoa. I have never seen anyone call Harrison JHey. Huh.
I still like that side more than the Longo/Trumbo/Melancon side, but it’s awfully close. If you need saves, go for it.
Harrison over Alvarez at the hot corner too unless you’re really hurting for HR.
yeah pirates fans call Harrison JHay, then again pirates fans have been known to use very different language to say the least, haha.
But id be getting rizzo/harrison. I should be ok on saves (have Chapman and Miller) so im trying to move melancon while i can (before he potentially loses his closer role.
Ah, yeah I’d pull the trigger on that deal for sure.
The ISO is on a five year dip, but this season his walks are up and K’s are down.
Longo’s average fly ball distance in feet, as per baseball heatmaps:
2011 – 196
2012 – 198
2013 – 204
2014 – 192
2015 – 206
I think the issue is that righties are giving him fits lately. He still tattoos southpaws, but he hasn’t posted a wRC+ above 100 against right-handers since 2013 with a 99 mark last season and 97 this year. For his career he still owns a 124 wRC+ against them, so there is hope this is just a weird period of 600ish PA’s versus righties.
I’d ride it out with him and hope for the best. At worst he still gets on base and crushes lefties.
I need some help with my ailing lineup in 10 team 7X6 league. Should I keep Alvarez at 3rd or seek an alternative like Plouffe, Lawrie or Escobar? I’ve been waiting for Rendon. Or I can move Semien to 3rd, and look at a MI instead. Best available are Lawrie, Crawford, LaMahieu, and Simmons. Thanks in advance!
I would lean towards keeping Alvarez, at least if you need the power. I think Alvarez is going to have a year like Chris Davis did last year, where he hits for good power, but murders for Batting Average.
Not to give you a non-answer, but it really does depend on what you need from your Corner Infielder, I like Plouffe more than a lot of people, but I also know as a Twins fan he is incredibly streaky and you can ride him for as long as he stays hot, but be prepared for a quick slow down. Lawrie I continue to like, but I admit a lot of that may be the fact he still has some “top prospect” shine on him in my mind. I think Plouffe and Lawrie will put up similar numbers, with Plouffe potentially getting a few more counting stats since he is currently hitting cleanup in front of solid on-base guys like Dozier and Mauer.
If I had to rank them I would go Alvarez, Lawrie, Plouffe. Honestly though, you could totally reorder those names and I think it would be about equal. Alvarez if you need power and can live with a bad Batting Average, Plouffe or Lawrie if you want less power but a better Batting Average and in the case of Lawrie a stolen base or two.
I would stay away from your middle infield options though, Crawford is the best of that group by a lot, but still not a great option.
Forgot to ask, should I consider replacing Molina with Grandal or Montero?
What are the extra categories?
In a vacuum, I like Yunel the best of those options listed. Probably Escobar > Plouffe > Lawrie, but that opinion could change based on your other cats.
Total bases and quality starts. So in total- R, RBI, HR, SB, AVG, OPS, and TB/ W, K, Sv, ERA, WHIP, and QS.
I think the Yanks may have something with Whitley. His changeup was amazing last night. He gets ALOT of movement on that thing, looks like a split the way it falls off. That was one unhittable pitch last night.
He’s on my waiver radar now. The Yanks will have a spot in the rotation for him all year. Capuano is nothing special and Nova can take his time coming back. I know the Yanks like him, but I never saw the appeal. Once (if) Tanaka comes back, I think the Yanks will be going to a six man rotation full time to keep him, Pineda and CC fresher.
Eno has been a fan of Whitley’s change for some time, and rightly so.
I was skeptical of Whitley, but if this curve is legit, my concerns will mostly vanish.
I own Alex Wood and Julio Teheran and both have been off to slow starts. I know Fredi came out and blamed yesterday’s bad start by Wood on his lack of control, but watching the game, it looked like in a number of cases, Wood’s pitches were heading straight into the glove before they got hit. There were a number of very confusing calls by AJ throughout the game. Looking back this year, it looks like Teheran has pitched well every time Bethancourt has caught him and poorly every time AJ has caught him, and Alex Wood hasn’t had a single Bethancourt game (and he hasn’t made it through six innings yet). Have others noticed this and how much blame can be put on AJ for the Braves pitching struggles? Will the Braves start giving more time to Bethancourt at some point or why is he in the doghouse?
I’m not too worried just yet.
Wood’s Fielding Dependent Wins is -0.4, 17th worst.
Teheran hasn’t been hurt by defense or sequencing quite so much, but is still giving up home runs at a pace much higher than his career norm. His swinging strikes are a touch down, but not enough for me to worry.
Wood hasn’t coaxed many whiffs out of hitters this season, currently sporting a rate half of his career average but part of it could be how the game is being called, I haven’t watched enough Braves games to really weigh in there.
I don’t think Bethancourt is in the doghouse, but AJ has been raking. That’ll likely end shortly though.