Bullpen Report: May 5, 2015
• The Yankees bullpen, which has been nearly perfect this season, blew the one-run lead in the eighth inning tonight with Chris Martin and Dellin Betances allowing three runs between them. Betances, who allowed an unearned run and still maintains a sparkling 0.00 ERA, received his first blown save of the season. Martin received the loss after allowing two hits to start the inning. Although Martin’s ERA ballooned to 3.86 after tonight’s outing, he still supports a 1.67 FIP and 2.36 FIP with 13 strikeouts against two walks in 11.2 innings pitched. Not bad for the third best guy in the pen. The ROS projections for Martin aren’t too promising given his unsuccessful recent history but he’s also hasn’t been particularly lucky this season with a 72.7 LOB% and.258 BABIP. Martin hasn’t allowed a home run yet, and he likely won’t go all year without giving one up but his GB% is 54.8%, so it’s not as if fly balls keep on just missing. He’s far away from saves with Andrew Miller and Betances crushing everyone right now but Martin should be a hold machine with an above average strikeout rate, valuable in most, if not all, deep leagues.
• Toronto’s three run eighth inning gave the Blue Jays the lead heading into the ninth and Brett Cecil nailed down his second save of the year with a 1-2-3 10 pitch inning. Miguel Castro is in the minors and Aaron Loup and Roberto Osuna shouldn’t be sniffing the ninth inning so surprisingly Cecil’s job, which he lost earlier in the year, is somewhat secure.
• Non-save situation for Jonathan Papelbon but he allowed three baserunners and run, finishing the ninth inning for the Phillies. Ken Giles threw a scoreless eighth inning lowering his ERA to 0.73. Giles doesn’t have the same velocity this season (94.9 mph) as he did last (97.2 mph) but he was hitting 95+ tonight and even if he doesn’t creep up to last year’s number, it’s plenty to do damage. Of more concern would be Giles’ 5.84 BB/9 which will need to come down if hes to pitch like he did in 2014.
• Quick Hits and Tidbits: Adam Ottavino is likely heading to Tommy John surgery, ending his season. Axford should see the most saves but if he falters keep Betancourt nearby. Francisco Rodriguez went 1-2-3 with two Ks for his fifth save of the year. The Brewers are in rebuild mode, so he could be traded mid-season for a team looking to improve the bullpen. Drew Storen was unavailable after pitching several days in a row so Tanner Roark closed it out for the first save of his career. Roark had a 2.85 ERA in 198.2 innings last season, so naturally he’s pitching the ninth in 2015. Washington has an insane rotation but I still expect to see Roark pitch multiple inning outings in case he’s needed if someone gets hurt. Neftali Feliz threw a perfect ninth for his third save of the year. At this point, Feliz is far from his exciting earlier career and is more of an eh closer on a bad team with a 4.76/3.48/4.12 ERA/FIP/xFIP line.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
Why is Al Al being listed as First Chair in Detroit when he’s been a complete mess all year? Recently Ausmus said he was going to start using Angel Nesbitt in more high leverage situations. Shouldn’t Nesbitt be listed on your grid?
Fair point but Al Al has entered in the 7th and 8th in his last two appearances, one in a blow out one in a close game. I’ll take a deeper look tonight and upgrade the grid – thanks for the tip!
Medina was optioned to AAA and Lord Farquhar is the setup guy based on prior closing experience, not current year results or usage. The guy you’re looking for in Seattle is rookie Carson Smith.
Good call, thanks!
Do you see Jake McGee being elevated to closer as soon as he’s off the DL later this week or next, or will it be a closer by committee in Tampa while they wait for things to shake out?
TB is usually cautious with its pitchers, so I would expect them to ease McGee back in rather than push him into the 9th inning role right away.
As a lefty, they will probably put him in against LHH & let him finish the inning in the 6th to 8th. If he was excels, then he’ll get the closer role back.
They may also use him to get the heart of the order before the 9th a few times, too, as they have with Boxy. TB seems to deliberately limit save opportunities for young arbitration eligible pitchers. so much the better if they can do it without hurting their chance of winning the ballgame.
Roark’s starting to push the velocity of his two-seamer now too, the pitch he throws most. Averaged 91 with it last year and touched 94, he’s sat at about 94 his last couple outings… coincidentally (?) he only has three strikeouts this year, but they all came in his last two outings (1.2 innings).
Is Madson worth rostering in 20 team leagues?
With the Ottavino news, does Axford become more valuable knowing that the likelihood that he hangs onto the job longer than a month or so has increased or are you still nervous about his control and pitching in Coors?
What’s Gregerson got to do to turn green? Qualls coughed up the game last night, further cementing his hold on the closer’s job.
Also, with his recent save and win does Kela move ahead of Tolleson in Texas? Tolleson has better stuff but the usage suggests Kela might be the next in line.
A few reliable sources have Bryan Morris next in line for saves in Miami instead of Ramos.
He self-destructed last night…
I think Cishek is still pretty safe. While his inconsistent/declined velocity should scare his owners (I own him in one league so count me in), I think the fact that Ramos and Morris have both had rough outings in the past few weeks only strengthens Cishek’s hold onto that job. Now if he goes out and blows a few saves, then it’s all fair game and I have no clue who would get the nod between Ramos, Dunn and Morris, but for the time being the struggles of the set up probably has done wonders for Cishek’s job security.