Rookie Check In: Buy, Sell, or Hold These Five Rookie Hitters

Among the top 100 hitters on the Fantasy Player Rater, several hitters are highly touted rookies or players who entered the season rookie-eligible. We’ll examine five rookie hitters. The goal is to provide redraft, keeper, and dynasty thoughts on these rookie-eligible hitters to figure out whether fantasy managers should consider holding, selling high, or buying in various formats. Though keeper and dynasty formats can have different rules and scoring, we’ll do our best to consider these differences. 

Konnor Griffin, SS, Pirates

As one of the top drafted prospects heading into the 2026 fantasy baseball season, the Pirates put fantasy managers on tilt. Konnor Griffin was the top prospect in the FanGraphs Top 100 Prospect List, with write-ups highlighting his five-tool ability as a strong hitter with tons of power, speed, and defense. Reports like that had fantasy managers hoping for an Opening Day call up, but Griffin was reassigned to minor league camp in the middle of March. Then contract extensions talks surfaced in early April, before he was called up on April 2.

A couple of weeks later, on his 20th birthday, Griffin hit his first home run and ever since, his offense has taken off. Griffin has hit three home runs, stolen  five bases, and rocked a .313 batting average since April 24. A .391 BABIP has been boosting that average, but Griffin did run high BABIPs in the minors. 

Griffin showed a 75.7% contact rate in the minors in 2025 and 80% contact rate during his brief time in Triple-A (21 plate appearances) in 2026. While we expect prospects to regress when they debut, Griffin’s 67.7% contact rate and 15.8% swinging-strike rate in the majors do raise some alarm. Griffin has made contact 90.8% of the time on pitches thrown in the heart of the zone, showing he will attack when he sees a juicy pitch.

The potential for big exit velocity is there for Griffin, given his near-elite bat speed (75.4 mph) and fast-swing percentage (55.6%). For context, fast-swing percentage is the percentage of swings at 75 mph or faster. That’s nearly three mph faster bat speed than the league norm. Griffin’s fast-swing rate is nearly double league average. The visual below shows Griffin’s near-elite bat speed compared to the league average.

Given that, one might expect Griffin to have a high barrel rate per plate appearance, though his 6.1% sits only slightly above the league average (4.9%). Part of Griffin’s challenge, like many prospects, is his launch angle. Griffin has 47.7% groundball rate, though he pulls the ball in the air 17% of the time, around the league average (16.7%). One reliable power metric, instead of average exit velocity, is Exit Velocity 50 or EV50, which accounts for the average of the hardest 50% of a player’s batted balls. Griffin has a 100.2 mph EV50, similar to Randy Arozarena, Teoscar Hernández, and Brandon Marsh. If Griffin can find pair up his exit velocities with increased  launch angle, we should see more home runs. 

Griffin boasts strong athletic numbers, including a 99th-percentile Sprint Speed. Thankfully for fantasy managers, Griffin has a high stolen base opportunity rate (27%) and has converted 100% of his chances. As projections indicate, there’s a good chance Griffin finishes with 30+ stolen bases, with 15 home runs as the baseline. We don’t have to squint to find above-average power metrics for Griffin to push for 20 homers, making him a 20/30 type player with a good batting average (.260) in a solid offense. 

For context, hitters with 20 home runs and 25-30 stolen bases would include Kyle Tucker (2025), Spencer Steer (2024), Adolis García (2022), Marcus Semien (2022), Zach Neto (2025), Geraldo Perdomo (2025), Trea Turner (2022), José Ramírez (2023), Francisco Lindor (2023), and Fernando Tatis Jr. (2023). About half of these hitters have been valued as top-24 draft picks in redraft and dynasty formats, with some being top-75 selections in 12-team leagues. 

Assuming Griffin’s contact rate regresses upward closer to his minor league contact rates and projected above-average hit tool, he could be valued as a top 24 player in most formats. This might present an opportunity to buy at a suppressed price after his redraft ADP was skyrocketing in 2026. Fantasy managers will need to pay up for Griffin’s name value, but it might be worth it. The main question in 2026 involves whether the Pirates gradually move him up higher in the lineup, instead of batting in the bottom third. 

Kevin McGonigle, 3B/SS, Tigers

Kevin McGonigle was a top-five prospect in the FanGraphs top 100 heading into the 2026 season. He has carried double-digit walk rates through his career and his hit tool has graded out well. That has shown in his MLB performance, as McGonigle has a .409 OBP in 2026,while sustaining a high batting average (.301), aligning his prospect pedigree. After the Tigers batted McGonigle sixth in the first four games, they quickly moved him up and he has batted first or second in the lineup in most games since March 30. McGonigle ranks ninth in OBP among qualified hitters, as seen below.

McGonigle might fare better in points or on-base leagues because of his high walk rate and on-base ability.

With McGonigle’s strong hit tool, he unsurprisingly boasts an elite 87.8% contact rate and 5.1% swinging-strike rate. For context, McGonigle’s contact and swinging-strike rates have been better in the majors than in his minor league career. Besides making plenty of contact, McGonigle uses a patient approach, with a 42.2% swing rate and 19.3% chase rate. His swing rate was four points below the league average, yet his chase rate was over 10 points below the league norm.

It’s still fresh data, but plate discipline metrics from ABS tell us swing, contact, and pitch percentage in heart, shadow, and chase areas of the zone. There are 15 hitters with a 93% contact rate in the heart of the zone and an 80% contact rate in the shadow area, while chasing under 25% of the time. McGonigle is one of them.

These might seem like arbitrary thresholds, but they filter down to a list of hitters with strong hit tools.

The difference between McGonigle and Griffin involves the Tigers’ top prospect pulling and hitting the ball at optimal launch angles. McGonigle has a  41.2% pull rate and 44.3% flyball rate in 2026, supporting his 22.9% pulled air rate, over six points above the league average. Though McGonigle doesn’t have elite bat speed (71.4 mph), he barrels the ball at a high rate (7.7%) per plate appearance. The Tigers’ home park ranks ninth in home run park factors for left-handed hitters, which should bode well for McGonigle.

We love that McGonigle has found success on the base paths, converting 100% of his chances. If McGonigle’s 12% stolen base opportunity rate continues to rise, there could be more fantasy upside. He rocks above-average speed (77th percentile Sprint Speed), but steals might not be a massive part of his profile. He stole 10 bases in the minors in 2025, down from 22 in 2024, after stealing only eight in 2023. That leads projection systems to expect a 15/15 type fantasy profile, with high-end batting averages and on-base percentages. 

There’s massive floor to build upon via McGonigle’s contact rate and on-base skills, making him a potential volume monster with high batting averages and OBPs. That makes McGonigle a strong asset in 15-team rotisserie and points leagues. There’s a chance McGonigle’s pull side power leads toward 20+ home runs, hinting at his upside. 

McGonigle might not have those outlier power or speed tools. However, he has shown strong offensive skills and tools. There’s a slim chance of McGonigle losing playing time because of his below-average defensive metrics, yet he should hit and stay atop the Tigers’ lineup. My gut says to buy McGonigle in redraft, keeper, and dynasty formats since he hasn’t exploded yet. 

JJ Wetherholt, 2B, Cardinals

The Cardinals have been a top 10 team in wRC+ (103, No. 9), with Jordan Walker, Iván Herrera, Alec Burleson, and Wetherholt as the top options. Wetherholt ranked top-12 in the FanGraphs Prospect Rankings, but behind Griffin and McGonigle. Wetherholt graded as having a plus hit tool, with an 80.8% contact rate in the minors in 2025, somewhat similar to his 77.6% contact rate in the majors. 

Interestingly, Wetherholt had a high BABIP (above .330) throughout his minor league career. However, Wetherholt’s .262 BABIP in 2026 seems to be suppressing his batting average (.248). Like McGonigle, Wetherholt had double-digit walk rates, making him a valuable option in points leagues or leagues that use OBP. Wetherholt profiled as having average power, evidenced by his 72.4 mph bat speed, 5.2% barrel rate per plate appearance, and 99.5 mph EV50 (No. 154). It doesn’t help that Wetherholt’s home park has the 26th-best home run park factor for left-handed hitters across a three-year rolling average.

That suggests Wetherholt may need to accumulate volume to reach 20 or more home runs. It’s worth highlighting that Wetherholt uses a pull-heavy (45.4%), flyball (43.8%) approach in 2026. Wetherholt does seem to hit the ball hard into the optimal launch angles. His 65% ideal attack angle percentage (percentage of swings with the optimal attack angle between 5 and 20 degrees) is 14 points above the league average.

The visual below shows Wetherholt’s rolling averages for pull, flyball, and the FanGraph hard-hit rates. That seems to be an optimal approach to tap into his pull-side power.

Interestingly, Wetherholt’s 99th percentile Outs Above Average surprised us, given his below-average to mediocre fielding prospect grades. From an athletic standpoint, Wetherholt has speed. He has a 10% stolen base opportunity rate and converted 100% of his chances. The three-year ZIPS projections have Wetherholt with double-digit home runs and stolen bases with a .250 batting average. However, the long-term projections have Wetherholt peaking at home runs and stolen base totals under 15 each. That suggests a somewhat underwhelming fantasy profile. 

Wetherholt consistently hit leadoff for the Cardinals, so there will be volume in his favor. This is the type of player that won’t lose leagues, but probably won’t win them either. Don’t be afraid to shop around and see how the market values Wetherholt in redraft, keeper, and dynasty leagues. That’s especially true considering that the Cardinals’ lineup might be overperforming their expectations. 

Kazuma Okamoto, 3B, Blue Jays

Kazuma Okamoto has been a regular contributor to the Blue Jays lineup, hitting in the top half. The scouting reports suggested Okamoto had a strong hit tool and above-average power. Though it’s a different level of competition, Okamoto had a 78-80% contact rate in his final two seasons in the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) League. In Okamoto’s major league sample, his 69.8% contact rate and 13.1% swinging-strike rate might alarm us. 

Okamoto has been somewhat patient with a 27.7% chase rate, over four points below the league average, coinciding with his double-digit walk rate. Throughout Okamoto’s time in the NPB, he often leaned into a pull-heavy, flyball approach. That approach continued, given his 50% pull rate and 44.3% flyball rate, aligning with his 27.4% pulled air rate, 10 points above the league norm. Okamoto was expected to have above-average power, which has been evident via his 9.6% barrel rate per plate appearance and 104.1 mph EV50 (No. 20). 

The visual below shows Okamoto and the other top-20 qualified hitters sorted by EV50.

He boasts above-average bat speed (73.9 mph) and a 41.1% fast-swing percentage (percentage of swings at 75 mph or higher). Okamoto possesses high-end power skills while hitting the ball at optimal launch angles. That should lead to him posting strong home run rates (HR/FB), though his 21.3% HR/FB might be closer to a 90th percentile outcome given his power skills. Regardless, it’s an optimal approach to tap into his pull-side power. Assuming Okamoto’s plate discipline and contact rate improve closer to the league average (76.8%), he could be a consistent 30+ home run hitter. 

Since stolen bases won’t be part of Okamoto’s profile, so he’ll need to be a four-category stud. However, batting average might be more mediocre than above average unless we see better plate discipline. Okamoto might fare better in points or OBP leagues with his walk rate (11.9%) and a decent OBP (.328) that won’t hurt you. The ZIPS three-year projections suggest around 20 home runs with a .240 to .250 batting average.

I expect Okamoto to be closer to 30 home runs with a similar batting average, presenting a buying opportunity.  

Munetaka Murakami, 1B, White Sox

This one burns because I called Munetaka Murakami a hitter to sell early in the season. That has already slapped me in the face. Murakami blasted 15 home runs across 182 plate appearances, at a 50 home run pace for a season. Murakami has been profiled as a consistent power hitter in the NPB, which we’ve seen in the majors. Ben Clemens wrote about Murakami on April 21 and discussed how Murakami’s production has aligned with expectations, yet there are skill concerns. 

One of those skill concerns involves his contact rate. In Murakami’s final two seasons in the NPB, he had a 63-64% contact rate. Unfortunately, Murakami’s contact rate fell to a paltry 59.9% contact rate in the majors. Unsurprisingly, when Murakami whiffs and strikes out, his wOBA dips, showing highs and lows in the visual below.

He shows a patient approach by swinging just 41.3% of the time with a 23.9% chase rate. For context, Murakami’s chase rate is over eight points below league average, with a five-point difference vs. swing rates (46.7%) across the league. Throughout most of Murakami’s NPB career, he had a 14% walk rate or higher, making him a points or OBP asset. He has continued to walk at a high rate (17.6%) with an above-average .363 OBP in 2026, yet he continues to swing and miss, posting a 16.5% swinging-strike rate. That’s why Murakami has been compared to Joey Gallo.

It’s fascinating how selective Murakami can be at the plate. He looks for pitches in the heart of the zone to smash, evidenced by his slugging percentage per balls in play by pitch type below.

Murakami shows patience by not chasing, but attacking pitches in the heart of the zone, and doing a lot of damage on those pitches.

• Murakami against pitches in the heart of the zone:
  • 493 wOBA (.573 xwOBA)
  • 28.6% Barrel/PA
  • 27.9% Whiff%
  • 75.3 mph bat speed
  • 99.8 mph average exit velocity
• Murakami against pitches in the shadow area of the zone:
  • .323 wOBA (.237 xwOBA)
  • 5.9% Barrel/PA
  • 43.8% Whiff%
  • 74.8 mph bat speed
  • 91.5 mph average exit velocity

Thankfully, Murakami crushes the ball when he makes contact. That’s evident by Murakami’s 75 mph bat speed, 53.8% fast-swing rate, and a 11% barrel rate per plate appearance. Furthermore, Murakami rocks the sixth-best EV50 (105.8 mph) and the fourth-highest average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (EV on FB/LD) at 101 mph. The only qualified hitters with a 105 mph EV50 and 100 mph EV on FB/LD are Murakami, Oneil Cruz, James Wood, and Aaron Judge. 

Given Murakami’s elite power, especially with optimal launch angles, we should expect him continue to hit a lot of home runs. Power hitters with similar elite skills typically have a HR/FB rate around 26%, so there’s a chance his home run rate regresses closer to that rather than his current 34.9%. However, outliers exist, and Murakami might be one of them. 

The ZIPS three-year projections expect 23-25 home runs and a .240 batting average. However, Murakami could post 45 home runs and a .232 batting average in 2026, hinting at an Eugenio Suárez-type profile.

The elite tools and contact rate volatility can hint at Murakami as a sell, though I’ve warmed up to buying based on team need and league context in keeper and dynasty formats. Another reminder that Murakami can be an asset in points and OBP formats because of the high walk rates, though he often whiffs.