The Daily Grind: Untimely DFS Advice

I had a conversation on Twitter the other day in relation to the latest DraftKings “scandal.” Don’t worry, this one is actually pretty bland. DraftKings pays some people to write about DFS and make recommendations. These same people also play and make money on DraftKings.

It’s the same thing a thousand writers do (including me on RotoGraphs). The affiliated writers don’t receive any inside information. The only difference between what I do and what they do is that DraftKings profits directly from their content. Also, one of their writers has made millions of dollars. I’ve made a few thousand. I suppose that’s a noticeable difference too.

Some people worry these writers will use their platform to subtly influence ownership rates and improve their results. I can tell you from experience that it’s sometimes painful to post my first string picks. I play for small stakes so I don’t worry about shedding the occasional percentage point on my win percentage. I’m also unlikely to strongly affect the overall results. I could see how playing high stakes and high volume could really warp your incentives as an advice column writer.

Here’s my process. I usually have some kind of hook or topic. For RotoWorld, I write a bargain picks column. My job is to pick 18 bargains and write about nine of them in more detail. On normal days, I’ll find something like 25 guys I consider viable bargains. After I give away 18 of those, guess which ones I actually use. Yep, some combination of the seven I didn’t publicize.

There’s nothing nefarious in this. I really truly gave you my 18 favorite bargains. Sometimes individual picks are so unique to me that I don’t worry if I overlap with my readers. Usually, I know my picks echo the crowd. And there are a LOT of writers out there making picks. Rajai Davis versus a lefty? He’s a good bargain, but I’ll look elsewhere for myself.

I assume DraftKings’ contractors are doing the exact same thing. They probably make picks in good faith, and then they probably wisely use plan B for themselves. They undoubtedly have a heavier influence on ownership rates than me, but it should hardly matter.

Think about the way the games are divvied up. There are a few massive tournaments, some mid-sized “leagues,” and a slew of smaller games. With the exception of the massive contests like the FanDuel Squeeze ($2 entry, 10,000+ participants), most of the user base is scattered between countless contests. If a DK writer joins a 100 owner 50/50, what are the odds that more than a couple participants read their picks? Presumably pretty low.

The Part With Advice

Most readers use picks-based articles incorrectly. At least, based on my Twitter chat, that’s what we writers assume. I mentioned my bargain column. I offer up 18 inexpensive players on FanDuel. The point of the column is to help you afford a Kershaw or a Blue Jays stack on a given day.

You should view my actual selections as irrelevant. It’s all about finding a process that fits your roster building. I recommend specific players, but the best way to use the post is to stay current on the latest trends. Here are some useful questions to ask while reading player pick columns:

1. Which stacks are valuable?
2. Which stacks are overused?
3. Who has an injury-related slump?
4. What types of players are best for filling cracks for cheap?

Additionally, these articles are very useful for staying on top of the player universe. Jimmy Rollins was miserable for most of last season. There was a brief period when he was a very productive DFS play. My job is to stay on top of when you can and can’t expect something from him. This is the type of information you should leverage from my articles.

It’s not intuitive, but DFS picks articles shouldn’t be read with the intent to use the writer’s recommendations. There will certainly be times when you see a pick and decide to jump on the bandwagon. Mostly, this type of post is best used for staying on top of an ever-changing fantasy landscape.