Reviewing 2026 Projection Showdown: THE BAT X vs Steamer ERA Forecasts

Last week, I reviewed my 2026 batter wOBA projection showdown pitting THE BAT against Steamer. Now let’s flip on over to pitchers with the same two systems battling it out for ERA projection supremacy. In mid-late February, I compared ERA projections and shared the pitchers that each system was most bullish on compared to the other. Let’s now find out which system ended up closest.

This was nearly an even matchup, with THE BAT X’s more optimistic ERA marks narrowly edging out Steamer five wins to four. This was a really interesting list because it features some of the game’s hardest throwers and highest projected strikeout artists. Heck, this was quite an exciting staff to roster if this was your top nine! Let’s dive into the names.

Once upon a time, Andrew Painter was a top prospect. We still show him as the Phillies top prospect, ranked 21st overall. After missing the entire 2023 and 2024 season recovering from TJ surgery, it was really anyone’s guess how his performance would be impacted. He spent the entire 2025 season in the minors and posted a a bloated 5.26 ERA while his strikeout ability vanished — he posted just a 23.7% mark across a bunch of Single-A starts, but mostly in Triple-A. That should have really dimmed his star, unless he would prove to be stronger as we got further away from his recovery.

He opened this season at Triple-A with a barely higher strikeout rate, and that was driven by a lowly 10.9% SwStr%, so at least initially, the answer wasn’t that more time would fuel a performance rebound. He was recalled to the Phillies anyway, and predictably pitched poorly, given the pessimistic Steamer the win here. The optimist, though, would look at his 3.63 botERA and 107 Pitching+ and believe there’s still serious potential here. Perhaps an NL-Only sleeper next year.

After posting a 2.82 ERA over 73.1 innings across 12 starts and three relief appearances, Emmet Sheehan was everyone’s sleeper, raising his price enough that he had to actually deliver on his sleeper appeal just to break even for his owners. Unfortunately, he did not, giving Steamer another easy win. This was a fascinating season. His underlying skills were almost identical to last year and he even maintained a better than league average BABIP, while his LOB% jumped above 70% where it should be. But, his HR/FB rate spiked to 15%, resulting in a bout of gopheritis and torpedoing his ERA, way above both his SIERA and xERA. One real concern here is a decline in fastball velocity.

The other concern was something I didn’t expect to see — a league average Stuff+ mark. For a guy posting such high strikeout rates, I thought for sure his Stuff would grade out well above league average. So both of those do give me pause. However, the major SIERA and xERA underperformance is enough to make him an easy sleeper again, but we’ll see if everyone else feels that way too. If not, he’ll be an excellent target.

It was a lost season for Hunter Greene who dealt with elbow issues that limited him to just five starts spanning 27.2 innings. He ultimately needed TJ surgery, potentially knocking him out until 2028. A ridiculous 49.4% LOB% resulted in a comical 6.83 ERA, giving Steamer yet another easy win.

Chad Patrick made just six starts on the year, which almost certainly made it easier to post an ERA closer to the more optimistic THE BAT X. But, he posted middling skills at best, and vastly overperformed both his SIERA and xERA. Without the good fortune stemming from all three metrics that comprise the luck trio, it would have been a close call as to which system his ERA landed closer to.

Seriously, the luck the players have when mentioned in my many list type articles is absurd. Cade Horton is the second on this list to undergo TJ surgery after recording just 7.1 innings this year over two starts. I have THE BAT X down as winning this one, because it’s technically true, but it’s totally meaningless over this small a sample.

Braxton Ashcraft upped his strikeout rate, even after a full-time move to the rotation, and dramatically cut his walk rate. He even increased his fastball velocity, though it resulted in only small bumps in stuff grades. That said, he posted strong PitchingBot and Stuff+ marks this year suggesting this was a legit full season breakout. It’s hard to fully believe in the walk rate reduction, so that’s probably going to be a significant factor as to how close he comes to replicating this season.

Were you scared away from Chase Burns after potential injury concerns this year? I was! And I was annoyed because I thought he could be undervalued after massively underperforming both his SIERA and xERA during his 2025 debut. I really didn’t want to be out on him, and turns out, I was right to be annoyed! Sure enough, his luck turned around and actually went the opposite way, as this time he overperformed both metrics. That gave THE BAT X it’s fourth win in a row. I’d like to see a higher CStr%, as his overall CSW% isn’t exactly high enough to support a 30%+ strikeout rate, but that’s nitpicking. Only injury is going to hold him back.

Ughhh, I always want to bet on the big strikeout guy with control problems figuring it out, because that happens far more frequently than a low strikeout guy suddenly discovering how to make batters swing and miss. But I guess everyone else loved Jacob Misiorowski, which led to me owning him nowhere. He nearly cut his walk rate in half! I have no idea how repeatable that is considering he had never posted a walk rate below 11.4% in his entire professional career. His SwStr% also skyrocketed from an already strong 13% to a ridiculous 17.6%. As usual, the only concern now is injury — can a guy averaging over 100 MPH with his fastball over 150+ innings stay healthy? Another THE BAT X win.

Given the lackluster CSW%, I wasn’t particularly bullish on Bryan Woo, but really it was mostly an LOB% plunge that resulted in an ERA just over 4.00, giving Steamer the win. His BABIP also popped to the highest of his career. Encouragingly, his Pitching+ was barely below his last two seasons and close to elite, while his botERA was almost identical to last year. He’s an obvious bounceback candidate, though perhaps he’ll be more attractively valued next season.

Let’s now flip over to Steamer’s favorites.

I only listed eight here instead of nine, and THE BAT X ended up having a better showing once again, winning five of the eight battles. Including this table in with the first one, the overall win count is THE BAT X with 10 and Steamer with seven, though that includes lots of small sample sizes. Interestingly, this was much closer than the wOBA showdown, in which Steamer won in a rout. As usual, there were lots of injury issues on this list as well. I guess no list of pitchers can avoid them!

What the heck happened to Nick Lodolo?! After never posting a strikeout rate below 24.3%, his mark plunged to just 17.1%, while his walk rate spiked to a career worst 9.5%. Both his botERA and Pitching+ hit career worsts, despite consistent velocity. I had been a fan in the past, but now I have no idea what to think. The disappointing season gave THE BAT X an easy win.

Injury limited Yusei Kikuchi to just 67.2 innings over 14 starts and his strikeout rate failed to rebound off last year’s previous decline, falling again to another lowest mark since his 2019 bottom. That was the case even while his fastball velocity rebounded to match a career high, though it didn’t help his Stuff+ any. On a poor team and with a declining strikeout rate and increasing walk rate, all while he’s 35 years old, there’s little reason to be optimistic about a rebound. This was another easy THE BAT X win.

Luis Castillo was an obvious bust candidate after his strikeout rate fell dramatically for a second straight year in 2025, but his ERA remained in the mid-3.00 range. Of course, no one expected the bottom to completely fall out this season, as his strikeout rate fell even further to dip below 20% for the first time, fueling a shocking 5.85 ERA. He even spent some time in the bullpen, begging the question of whether that’s it for his rotation days. Another easy win for THE BAT X.

We encountered more injury issues, this time with Spencer Strider, who made just eight starts this season. His strikeout ate did rebound somewhat off last year’s low, but his walk rate also jumped to a career worst into double digits, while his fastball velocity failed to rebound toward his previous peak. An inflated HR/FB rate resulted in significant SIERA and xERA underperformance, giving THE BAT X yet another win. He’ll be yet another high upside risk in 2027 drafts.

Do the injuries ever end? Tyler Glasnow was limited to just 13 starts, preserving his previous high of just 134 MLB innings. Fortunately for his owners, he was excellent in those innings as he posted his highest strikeout rate since 2021. The strong performance gave Steamer its first win, as THE BAT X’s projection of an ERA over 4.00 remains headscratching.

This is now the second straight season Aaron Nola has significantly underperformed his SIERA and xERA, as his HR/FB rate has gotten out of control. THE BAT X was right on target here with its projection of another disappoinying season. Worrying is a fourth straight year of increasing walk rates, as he posted his highest mark since 2020. That’s unacceptable as his strikeout rate continues to slide, though at least his velocity didn’t decline again. I still feel like he deserves better results, but I would feel better taking the risk in an NL-Only league, rather than a shallow mixed league.

Though he lasted just 118 innings, I still think this was the best case scenario for Shane McClanahan in 2026, as it came with a nice 3.36 ERA. That said, his strikeout rate was a disappointing 21.8%, and he needed a massive heap of good fortune, as he dramatically overperformed both his SIERA and xERA. That overperformance gave Steamer an easy win. I’m curious how he’ll be valued next season as the injury risk isn’t going away, and now his performance is a concern given the underwhelming strikeout rate.

Sandy Alcantara completely rebounded after a weak season before and after he missed all of 2024 recovering from TJ surgery, resulting in an easy Steamer win. But it wasn’t all rainbows, as his strikeout rate slid to a career low, really taking a chunk out of his fantasy value. Somehow, he managed to record a league leading 214 innings, taking some of the sting out of the poor strikeout rate. It’s hard to comprehend how he continues to underwhelm in the strikeout rate department despite a high 90s fastball and strong command and control. I will assume the strikeout rate rebounds, but will also assume his price will be too high to roster.