Mason’s Musings: Offseason Checklist
As the 2022 season came to an end, I sat in front of my computer absolutely befuddled.
I had played in 16 leagues and for the first time in the seven years that I had been a fantasy analyst, I had not cashed in a single league. I had spent countless hours doing research, writing articles, podcasting and came up completely empty. Something had gone completely wrong.
I made a decision that I had to change things. I completely reworked my offseason process. I looked at everything that had led me to such a disappointing result and rebounded with a great year in 2023 where I won multiple leagues and cashed in over 50% of my leagues. This is now my regular offseason checklist that I follow no matter whether I had a good or bad season.
Take A Break
I live and breathe fantasy baseball. However, after grinding the game from November to September, I need to take a break. This doesn’t mean I completely check out in the month of October, but I do try my best to not work quite as much and I just enjoy watching the playoffs. For other people it may mean tuning out some until after the New Year, but it is imperative that you recharge your batteries for the upcoming season.
Review Everything
This may be the most important thing I did after the 2022 season. I really struggled to figure out what went so horribly wrong. Was it a player evaluation issue? Was it a roster construction problem? Was there a fallacy in my strategies or logic? In order to diagnose what the issue was, I broke down each of my teams with deep dive articles called the Justin Mason Apology Tour. By digging deeply into each individual team, I was able to figure out some of the mistakes I made and fix the broken processes that led me to struggle so much in 2022. This year’s Apology Tour will debut over the next few weeks.
Lineups/Playing Time
One of the most important things I did even before revamping my offseason process was track end of season and playoff lineups. There are always things that can be gleaned from how teams use hitters and pitchers down the stretch. When ADP’s and projections become available over the next few weeks, they will largely be built on the totality of the previous season, but if a player was leading off for the last month or closing games in the World Series, that may hold more weight than what they did prior to September and October to the team that they are playing for. This is how I identified Cedric Mullins as a breakout in 2021 and other players as potential sleeper picks over the years.
Projections/Ranks
I think it is important to look at projections and ranks as they begin to come out in the next couple of months, but I think it is even more important to do your own before those are released. One of the big things I did in 2023 was my own full projections. By doing these before I looked at other projection systems, I was able to see who I liked better and then challenge what I believed by looking at the differences. Most people are not going to spend the time that it takes to do projections like I do, but you should create a baseline ranking for yourself before you look at others to have a ranking that you like that isn’t influenced by others and the dig into the systems and ranks from others to fine tune what you have already built.
ADP
Once you have your own ranks, then it is time to look at the ADP. With the growing popularity of NFBC, we now get ADPs much earlier than we did a decade ago. Take your ranks and compare it to the ADP to see who stands out. Maybe you thought you had someone like Konnor Griffin really high, but his ADP is in the top of the second round which is higher than your ranks. Maybe you find a guy you think is a top 50 player and he is going outside the top 150 and now you have a potential steal on your hands. Tracking ADP is an important tool especially early in the offseason because that early ADP will set the foundation that the later ADPs are based on.
News
One of the most important articles I read in the offseason is Jeff Zimmerman’s Mining The News. Especially with a potential lockout coming, you have to be tracking as much news as possible over the next few months. Whether it is injuries that we find out about after the season, playing time or position changes coming up, or the addition of a new pitch, the more information that you can put into your projections and ranks, the better chance you have at being more prepared than the competition.
What are some of the things you do in the offseason to prepare you for the upcoming year?
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
Base your projections on the counting stats in your league. When reviewing published ADPs (e.g. NFCB) note the counting categories used for their projections. A common difference is the inclusion of both Average and On Base % categories instead of only one of the two.
To answer your question, the primary thing I do each offseason is make my own projections. I am in the middle of doing that now. Each year I find things that I can improve on and implement them. I love doing this and the projections I come up with tend to be fairly accurate. But, I cannot draft worth a hoot. Not for a redraft league or a dynasty league. I did not win a single league (seven total), and outside of one second place team, nearly all of my teams were sixth or below. So this offseason, I am also encorporating a deep dive into draft strategies and rethinking my player value metrics. Here’s to next season. Luckily for us “Sad Sacks” there’s always next season.