Reliever Lessons from 2026

In an attempt to improve what I find most challenging when constructing my fantasy roster, I found a league this season that could help me address those shortcomings, with the hope that it would also inform my approach in future seasons across all formats. This was joining a league with scoring that heavily favored relievers, with increased points for saves and holds, and minus points for blown saves.

Generally, when I am drafting, my strategy has been to avoid paying high-value capital for closers, instead finding someone of value at a reasonable price who I feel I can leave in the lineup and not worry about for the rest of the year. Then I look to find value in later rounds to round out the rest of my bullpen. But this is an area of my approach and analysis that I am keen to improve on, and I thought this league would prove informative while also giving me the excuse to partake in an extra league!

In this particular keeper league, a win is worth 4, and a loss costs 4. A save is worth 7 points, a blown save costs 3, and a hold is worth 4. Starting pitchers are capped at 12 games started per matchup week, which rules out simply rostering five strong starters. A save is the single biggest incentive in the format, worth twice a quality start (3.5), which pushes the scoring heavily toward rostering closers and setup relievers.

Despite the incompatibility with most scoring systems, there are macro lessons I think are worth sharing, and I hope they can be of use to those who also may struggle with this particular part of the game.

For some context on my own team and its performance, I finished the season third of twelve, in terms of overall points, only 40 points off of second, and a 14-5 record. Unfortunately, despite a strong regular season, I got bounced in the first round of the playoffs… But as a whole, I was relatively pleased, despite a disappointing postseason. H2H can always throw up randomness and variance that can sink even the best of teams.

Saves Are (Not?) Everything

While saves are the primary metric for relievers in almost all formats, and particularly when they are worth 7 points, they are not the be-all and end-all. When you get past your top 10-15 closers, it can be tempting to just try to identify those 9th-inning closers that have the potential to rack up saves. While this is still the most important aspect of a fantasy reliever, it can often cloud other important routes to points for relief pitchers. Of the 11 pitchers with 30-plus saves, I managed to roster 2, and both, I think, give an interesting picture of both the value of saves and other stat categories that should not be overlooked.

My two closers were Chapman and O’Brien, both towards the bottom of the group in terms of overall points but in the top half of overall saves. O’Brien finished tied for third in saves (38) but last of the eleven in total points. Chapman tied for fifth in saves (35) and finished ninth of the eleven in total points. Chapman’s ERA and blown-save rate were among the best in the group, but his 51.2 innings were the fewest of the 11, which held his total down.

Given that O’Brien was a waiver pickup, it is not really fair to expect a similar total output to Chapman, whom I spent a high draft pick on, or any other reliever in this group. He had a fantastic season given his value. But still, he provides a good microcosm of a potential trap for relievers too reliant on saves for their points total in future seasons. Saves made up 245 of Chapman’s 386 points (63%) and 266 of O’Brien’s 351.5 (76%), with O’Brien also giving back 24 points on 8 blown saves. I think realistically O’Brien should not be considered in this group, and both his save total and blown-save rate are likely to regress. While I was able to maximize the saves this year, this is something that is equally likely to come back down as it is to stick, given the rest of his stats and his team context. Whereas Chapman’s save number is much more likely to hold, and even then he is less reliant on them for his overall total given his strikeout and run prevention numbers.

O’Brien gives an interesting comparison to another one of my relievers, Kevin Kelly, who, depending on your league’s scoring system, would project to have a much higher floor in 2027. His reliance on holds is worth noting, since 33 holds were worth 132 of his 345.5 points, but he also just has a much stronger profile with a lower ERA, WHIP, BB/9, and more innings.

My point in the comparison between these two in particular is that outside of elite closers, we cannot expect O’Brien to match 2026 output, whereas Kelly is more likely in my view to maintain a low WHIP and BB/9 while providing more innings. Past a certain point in the draft, the marginal value of saves becomes diluted, and we should consider arms that have more routes to points. In roto or category leagues, an O’Brien type hurts your ERA and WHIP directly, and his 4.08 ERA and 1.28 WHIP ranked 46th and 42nd of the 52 relievers with at least 15 saves plus holds.

Realistically, saves are still king; the person who ended up winning the league, not coincidentally, had four of the eleven in the table above. The champion’s four, Baker, Megill, Duran and Iglesias, finished 4th, 7th, 8th and 10th in points among the eleven. Having four arms that were able to rack up saves probably made the difference. So maybe saves are everything?

However, outside of the elite closers, saves can be a volatile category to rely on, and there is value in pitchers like Kelly who can contribute in other areas depending on what your league rewards.

Volume Provides Floor

Naturally, the best arms will garner the most innings. Cade Smith (74.0 innings), Mason Miller (70.0), and Louis Varland (78.0) were the three best closers in the pool, and all threw at least 70 innings. However, I think volume can be taken further to identify strong options outside of the premier closer arms, especially when you reach a point in the draft where you are uncertain. Innings is a stable option, if an unexciting one. In this particular league, which rewarded 3 points per inning, the pitchers who threw the most good innings had a high floor no matter what role they held.

My own bullpen was a good indication of that. Kevin Kelly threw 73.2 innings to Chapman’s 51.2, which gave him 221 points from innings against Chapman’s 155. Chapman made that up with his saves and finished ahead, 386.0 to 345.5, but Kelly stayed within 41 points of him on only 4 saves. Tyler Rogers did the same. He threw 71.0 innings, which were worth 213 of his 292.0 points; he also finished with only 4 saves. Chapman, Bednar and Varland each saved 35 games but finished with 386.0, 431.5 and 491.5 points on 51.2, 69.1 and 78.0 innings. While I was able to get a lot out of Chapman as my No. 1 reliever, I was capped by his lack of innings compared to other closers, something I perhaps should have paid more attention to given his age.

Relievers without a closer’s job show the same pattern. Adrian Morejon (86.0 innings), Grant Taylor (84.0) and Aaron Ashby (89.1) finished with 373.0, 345.0 and 331.5 points on 3, 10 and 4 saves. Morejon beat O’Brien, and the other two finished within 20 points of him in my league’s scoring system.

Reaction Time

Perhaps more than with any other group, being able to quickly pick up pitchers in a bullpen, and equally quickly drop them despite the value they may have, is key. Reliever value rides on a role, and a role can change in a week, so reaction time matters at this position. I had examples from across the season where I fell victim to cost but also acquired significant gains through quick pickups.

As mentioned, O’Brien and Kelly were both waiver pickups that were fantastic all season given I was able to pick them up at no cost. To introduce a late-season example, following his relegation to the bullpen, Kodai Senga was dropped at the beginning of August. Recognizing his potential in this new role, I acted quickly to pick him up, and he was incredibly useful in closing out games at the back end of the year. He made 15 relief appearances from 8/15 to 9/23 with 7 saves, 18 strikeouts in 13.2 innings, and 69.5 points, 68% of his 101.5 season total.

On the other end, Pete Fairbanks was a reliever who I held too long, taking him in the fourth round. I never dropped him because of this cost and the closer upside. He finished with a 6.31 ERA, 19 saves in 23 chances, and 205.0 points in an injury-plagued season. I kept him because the month-to-month numbers kept giving that inkling of hope, but he was never able to sustain it. He posted a 3.38 ERA in May, and in August a 3.00 ERA with a .095 batting average against. Those months were 5.1 and 6.0 innings, just not enough innings to have fantasy value. In the second half, he walked 9 batters in 12.1 innings, and his best fantasy month points-wise, June at 68.5 points, came with a 5.91 ERA. In the first playoff round, he was one of the contributing factors in my exit, giving me negative points before going on the IL in a tight loss.

Someone like Andrés Muñoz, who would have been frustrating given his blown saves, was still pitching at a really high level outside some bad innings; that kind of pitcher who, on his day, is in the argument to be a top-5 closer in baseball is worth keeping despite disappointment, particularly in a keeper league. But Fairbanks just didn’t justify being given that much rope, and it ended up costing me.

Final Takeaways

This kind of scoring can make it difficult to extrapolate takeaways across formats, where holds are vital for success; I learned they are just not applicable to most formats. However, given the tendency I think for most players, myself included, to de-prioritize relievers, this kind of league has a lot of teaching points. Saves, while incredibly valuable particularly at the top end, can be volatile as you move down the closer lists. This season’s Riley O’Brien type will be on most waivers in 2027, and in the meantime, picking up arms who can rack up innings, have a good WHIP and ERA, and hit other categories is incredibly useful no matter what the format. I hope this can be of use to people, even those who don’t value holds; selfishly, it was at least fun to be involved in a new league.