Relief Pitcher Fastball Velocity Surgers 4/13/2022 – A Review

Aside from discussing starting pitcher fastball velocity surgers at the beginning of the season, I also did the same for relief pitchers. In mono league formats, relievers could generate positive value, even without recording any saves, with strong ratios, and a high strikeout rate. Identifying breakouts early might allow you to pick up a reliever for free and shield a pitcher slot from ratio damage by a weak starter.

This ended up as quite the group, as five of the six posted a velocity closer to their early spike than their lower 2021 marks. One reliever actually ended up posting a significantly lower velocity over the rest of the season than he did in 2021, so we’ll investigate the cause of that drop.

Orioles reliever Mike Baumann enjoyed a big velocity spike to a well above average mark, but oddly, that failed to translate to swings and misses or strikeouts. His strikeout rate sat well below average at just 15.4%, while his SwStk% was exceptionally weak at just 6.6%. He didn’t even offset the lack of whiffs with called strikes and ended the season with a sub-20% CSW%, which is poor. Amazingly, not one of his pitches generated a double digit SwStk%. His slider was his best pitch, but only recorded a 9.6% SwStk%. Whether a starter or reliever, such underwhelming stuff means he’ll remain far away from any of my fantasy teams.

After a velocity drip in 2021, Miguel Yajure rebounded and pushed his velocity even higher than his 2020 debut. But like Baumann, it didn’t matter, as he struck out just 13.4% of opposing batters (and walked the same number of them!). His SwStk% wasn’t as unimpressive and didn’t manage to get into double digits, so I would say he deserved a higher strikeout rate, but small samples could also muck up strikeout rates. Either way, there’s nothing to see here.

We got our first velocity surged based breakout in Jorge López! Of course, much of that velocity bump was due to his move from the starting rotation to a full-time reliever. Interestingly, while his velocity spiked and his SwStk% jumped into double digits for the first time, his strikeout rate only increased to 24.2%, which isn’t very exciting for a relief pitcher, especially one averaging nearly 98 MPH with his sinker. I do like the combination of skills though, as he posted an elite 57.8% ground ball rate. If he could get that walk rate down, he would be closing in on elite reliever status, especially if his strikeout rate took another step up to match his velocity.

So Art Warren was the only pitcher on this list to not only fail to hold his early velocity spike, but ended up posting a significantly lower velocity over the rest of the season than he did in 2021. His velocity dropped 4.2 MPH since his early spike! Sure enough, Warren was pitching injured, as he was placed on the IL in early July for an elbow injury he eventually had surgery on. He’s a good example of why following velocity is so important, as it could be an immediate indicator that something is wrong physically.

After two straight seasons of velocity declines, John Brebbia’s fastball rebounded, though fell just short of his 2017 and 2018 marks. What has become a bit of a theme here, the velocity rebound seemed not to matter, as he easily posted his lowest strikeout rate of his career. As a fly ball pitcher, this year’s drop in HR/FB rate helped, but he can’t bet on that lasting forever, and the drop in strikeout rate means he’s not delivering any fantasy value in strikeouts. He’s not worth rostering unless his strikeout rate rebounds, but by the time you have a large enough sample to be confident it has, the season will have ended already.

After coming back from elbow injuries, Matt Bush returned with the best skills of his short career. His rest of season velocity was actually a touch higher than his early season spike, but this merely represented a rebound after a drop in 2018 and another one in 2021. It’s hard to believe he’s already 36, so he’s no team’s closer of the future, but he does own the skills to close if needed, and therefore makes for a decent dollar buy in NL-Only leagues.