Relief Pitcher Fastball Velocity Surgers 4/13/2022

This week, I have been identifying and discussing the starting pitchers that have enjoyed a fastball velocity surge during their first start. Let’s now shift over to relievers. Even without recording saves, middle relievers can earn value in deeper leagues. This has been even truer in recent years as starting pitchers have been averaging fewer innings per start, so the difference between a replacement level starter’s strikeout and win totals and a good reliever’s is much smaller than it used to be. Let’s now discuss six relievers that have most increased their fastball velocities so far. Remember, the sample sizes here are small and velocity does fluctuate from game to game.

Interestingly, there are two Orioles on this list. Let’s discuss both together. After the Orioles moved Tyler Wells into the rotation, and then shipped off Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott, it was anyone’s guess who would close out Orioles wins. No one in the bullpen was projected to be any good, so it was impossible to even pick a sleeper or a guy with strong skills you think had a chance of rising to the top of the mountain.

Jorge López earned the first save, despite owning a career 6.01 ERA and 4.70 SIERA. Now granted, most of that came as a starter, so you would figure he would perform better as a reliever. So far, his fastball velocity has done what you would expect after transitioning full-time to the bullpen — surge! But this surge is actually a bit greater than you would normally expect, which is a good sign. That said, in his tiny sample of 38 pitches, he generated just a 5.3% SwStk%, which is wellllllllllll below the league average. So far, the faster fastball hasn’t made a difference, while he has struggled to find the plate. I am admittedly intrigued by his newfound velocity, how can you not be at 98.2 MPH? But he’s got a long way to go to become even a decent pitcher. I’m not sure I would risk my ratios for the chance at 10 saves.

Does López have competition now in the form of Mike Baumann, our biggest velocity gainer? Baumann has posted double digit SwStk% in most of his minor league stints, but also double digit walk rates as well. His slider graded out at 70, but oddly he has only thrown it once this season, and instead thrown his lesser graded curveball. There’s nothing in his stat history that excites me, but he also pitched as a starter almost his entire minor league career. Maybe the added velocity as a reliever will turn him into a darkhorse candidate for saves in that scary Orioles bullpen.

Even with a big velocity jump, Miguel Yajure’s fastball still merely sits around the league average. It’s much needed though given mediocre strikeout rates in the minors, though those came mostly as a starting pitcher. He has shown excellent control during most of his professional career, so a velocity bump that raises his strikeout rate could make him a pretty solid reliever. He’s going to have a tough time recording any saves though, as David Bednar and Chris Stratton are two names he’ll have to leapfrog over.

Even with a healthy Lucas Sims, the Reds bullpen is definitely not settled. That’s why Art Warren is worth monitoring. Do note, however, that this velocity increase comes from just two pitches! I decided to leave him on the table to give me an opportunity to talk about him. Last year, he posted an insane 41.5% strikeout rate, backed by an elite 19% SwStk%. And he was throwing just 95.2 MPH back then! While I can’t tell you if this velocity gain will hold after just two pitches, it’s clear he owns a pretty awesome fastball/slider combo. He’s a worthy buy in deeper leagues for now, solely for the strikeout potential, but could easily find himself recording saves in the near future.

John Brebbia has been your generic middle reliever, saving two games back in 2018, and posting solid skills throughout his career. His velocity was in freefall, bottoming last year, but has fully rebounded, and then some, this season. It’s hard to imagine him earning any saves, and he probably won’t stand out enough to bother rostering in deeper leagues. There are likely similar options with a better shot at saves.

It’s been quite the career for Matt Bush, who was the first overall pick of the 2004 draft as a hitter, but then converted to a pitcher. He eventually made his MLB debut, as a pitcher, in 2016, then missed all of 2019 and 2020 due to elbow issues. He then pitched just four innings last year, but is back and apparently healthy again. The good news — his velocity has rebounded after falling each season since his 2016 debut. The bad news — this season’s rebound is not a new level for him, it’s merely a return to where he was back in 2016 and 2017. The good news again is that he was pretty good when he had his premium velocity and even earned 11 saves from 2016-2017. Joe Barlow is no sure thing as the Rangers closer and Greg Holland’s magic seemingly only lasted in 2020, but has been surrounded by weak skills and poor results. That makes Bush a real candidate to earn saves at some point this season, with strikeouts and ratios that won’t kill you.