My Mock Draft: Pitchers

With my infield and outfield already covered, let us move to the final piece of the puzzle, my pitching staff. Normally in 12-team mixed league snake drafts I wait on starting pitchers, unless the league has particularly deep rosters. I feel comfortable stream 2-3 starters per week and spend early and often on my hitters. Given the way my offense shaped up, clearly I veered off of my normal plan with semi-disastrous results for my hitters. Regardless of how the team ended up looking, I enjoyed going outside of my comfort zone in this mock draft.

SP — Stephen Strasburg, 37th
I broke my traditional mold early by grabbing Stras in the fourth round. He was the seventh pitcher off the board and two more starters followed within the next four picks. Given how the draft unfolded, I was thankful to lock down an elite starter to anchor my team.

SP — Jordan Zimmermann, 60th
Sticking with Washington Nationals pitchers, I grabbed Jay-Z in the middle of a run of pitchers. In the eight picks prior and five picks following Zimmermann, six were starters. While his strikeouts won’t be as high as guys taken after him like Zack Greinke or Adam Wainwright, I love Zimmermann’s ratios. Since 2012 (with a 500 IP minimum for a 166.2 IP/year average) he owns the 3rd lowest ERA and the 19th best SIERA among 58 starters. For me to take him as the 12th pitcher feels a touch high, but I don’t hate this pick. Given his 10.3% swinging strike rate last year, it wouldn’t shock me to see him maintain a 8 K/9 again this season.

SP — Sonny Gray, 84th
This wasn’t a homer pick as an A’s fan, I swear. Maybe a bit, as I do have a particular fondness for Gray ever since he was drafted. A lot of people were turned off by his small stature and thought of him as a probable reliever, but I kept the faith that he could stick in the rotation. Though he doesn’t blow batters away, Gray generates enough strikeouts to have value and holds a great ground ball rate. Since he was called up in 2013, Gray’s 55.3% GB% is sixth best in baseball, minimum 250 IP. His curveball is incredible and while his change-up needs work, Gray could have been my first pitcher taken and I’d still be fine in the seventh round. For context, Gerrit Cole was taken two later and though he holds the higher upside, I’ll take the lesser risk with Gray. The drafters at Mock Draft Central disagreed for their three qualifying drafts (January 7-10), as Gray’s ADP there was 205th. I may have reached for Gray a bit, but 205th seems more bonkers than 84th.

RP — Trevor Rosenthal, 85th
My first reliever came in the midst of a mini-rush of closers, as Rosenthal was the third closer taken out of six in a 13 pick span. I worry about the spike in walk rate from Rosenthal last year as his 5.37 BB/9 is awfully Joe Borowski-esque, but I’m optimistic for Rosenthal. Given his mostly fastball usage, his 78.3% rates as 11th highest since 2012 among qualified relievers, I expect his control to come back to him. We may not see a 14.7% SwStr% from him again like in 2013, but Rosenthal is still a great closer.

SP — Yordano Ventura, 132nd
To me, right around the 80-140 pick or so, players don’t seem “worth it.” I wasn’t thrilled to take Ventura here, but the more I looked around the more it made sense for my team. I didn’t feel ready to take another reliever just yet and Ventura offers steady albeit not outstanding strikeouts and tolerable rate stats. With Cliff Lee and Zack Wheeler going before and after Ventura, I think this pick offered less risk than Lee and slightly better BB%, though a lesser K% than Wheeler. Given my earlier pick of Gray and his relative lack of strikeouts, Wheeler probably would have been the better pick.

RP — Steve Cishek, 156th
The idea of any Miami Marlins player being safe is somewhat far-fetched, non Giancarlo Stanton division of course, and as long as Cishek remains an elite reliever this pick could backfire. If Cishek gets traded to a team and stops becoming a closer then my 13th round pick just became worth a lot less in a non-holds league. I can’t draft — even in a mock — assuming a player will be traded so I grabbed Cishek as my second closer behind Rosenthal. They both offer a double digit K/9 and Cishek actually had a down year in part due to a .331 BABIP, causing some cheap hits to fall in and balloon his ERA to 3.17 versus a 2.34 SIERA. This pick came in another mini-closer run as other guys like Huston Street, Koji Uehara, Francisco Rodriguez, Fernando Rodney and Drew Storen all went within five picks before or after Cishek. This seems about right for him, again assuming he does not get dealt.

RP — Francisco Rodriguez, 157th
Back-to-back closers in the middle rounds to give me a total of three headed into the season. Again, grabbing pitchers — especially relievers — is a rare thing for me, so I really wanted to nail down saves in this mock draft.

SP — Andrew Cashner, 180th
I mean, Cashner is my spirit animal. My fantasy team name one year was “Straight Cashner, homie” (thanks Randy Moss). Fellow nerds at MDC had Cashner at 183rd in their drafts and I feel good grabbing him here. Here’s hoping for 170+ innings out of him this year!

SP — Ian Kennedy. 181st
Kennedy is coming off of best strikeout rate of his career and plays half of his games in the best pitchers park in the league. His fly ball tendencies are fine in Petco and his 10% SwStr% was the third highest of his career, though that could be changing. Last year Kennedy relied on his change-up less and curve more often than any season other than 2010 and if that trend holds, the strikeouts may not stick around. I don’t fully buy into linear pitch weights — I think sequencing plays a massive role — but according to Brooks Baseball, Kennedy’s highest whiff rate came on change-ups at almost 20%. I wouldn’t call this pick a steal, but I was very happy for Kennedy to come so late to me. With Ventura and Gray not exactly strikeout machines, getting another high K guy in the 16th round was awesome.

SP — Mike Fiers, 228th
Fingers crossed Fiers can replicate his successful 71.2 innings and flash a 9.54 K/9 again, or at least come close. Looking at his 9.5% whiff rate it may be possible, however I don’t see another .224 BABIP, even with his extreme fly ball rate. Fiers’ career 33.2% GB% doesn’t bode particularly well in Milwaukee, or in Cincinnati or Wrigleyville. The long ball may hurt Fiers at times but I hope his strikeouts will be enough to allow me to play the match up game and pick and choose where I start him. Or I blew my 19th round pick. I can live with either, though the former sounds a lot better.

SP — Matt Moore. 277th
With my final pick of the mock draft I took Moore, who won’t pitch in the majors until May or June. This pick could pan out very nicely and Moore could return to action in the second half without missing a beat from his strong 2013 campaign or his control issues may not be sorted out and I’ll drop him before Father’s Day.

While I don’t love every pitcher pick — I’m looking at Zimmermann, Gray and Ventura — I do feel good about what I accomplished in the later rounds with my staff. I’d give my throwers a solid B, maybe even a B+ grade. Unfortunately that isn’t enough to drag my offense to a top 3 placing. That’s why we do some mocks, to test our abilities and go against our normal groove. The next one I’ll proceed as normal, so expect nothing but hitters for rounds 1-8!