Properly Valuing Carlos Carrasco
To start off, Jeff Sullivan wrote an awesome piece on Carlos Carrasco on the main site. If I could make a request, it is that you read the above link prior to reading this piece on Carrasco’s fantasy value.
The one quote I loved from Jeff was what he ended with. He stated “it’s almost impossible to fake what he pulled off for a third of a season. It’s almost impossible to be that good without being at least kind of close to that good.”
From a fantasy perspective, that is exactly the concept I am using when evaluating Carrasco. Sure there is risk in betting on a guy based on 10 starts, but the 10 starts were so incredibly impressive that the upside of owning Carrasco – especially in long term formats – is well worth the risk of him turning back into a pumpkin.
Currently, Carrasco is ranked the 32nd and 34th best starting pitcher respectively on Yahoo! and ESPN. To me that seems very low. Take a Julio Teheran, for example, who I am a quite a fan of. I believe Teheran is a very quality pitcher but I think compared to Carrasco he has a higher floor and a lower ceiling. Teheran has a longer sample of success, but also does not quite have the dominant stretch or upside that Carrasco displayed at the tail end of last season when he was effectively the best pitcher in all of baseball. Even looking at Steamer projections, Carrasco is projected to have a 3.59 ERA and Teheran is at a 3.81 mark – and that includes the Carrasco performances prior to his altered arm slot.
The point is not that people are crazy for ranking Carrasco that low. I do not know that it is improper considering how small of a sample we have of the once great prospect actually producing. I do know that we are in this fake game to win and taking a guy like Carrasco who may end up being a top tier starter in terms of strikeouts and rate stats relatively late is what elevates teams from looking pretty good on draft day to being winners.
Nobody needs a lecture on risk/reward, but a 2.44 FIP over 134 innings (with a good portion of that being in relief) does not quite grow on trees and is difficult to acquire so late on draft day. Calculated risks are necessary in fantasy and I do not see many better calculated risks than focusing on Carrasco when your draft occurs. I am keeping Carrasco as a 10th round keeper in a league of mine and I am ecstatic about having his services along with Corey Kluber’s in the 17th. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Carrasco ends up being the next Kluber, or at least a Kluber-lite.
Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.
I like Carassco, but I think he is 2015’s Danny Salazar. He is good, but he has been blown up as a sleeper everywhere. I’d rather take Danny Salazar who people soured on a bit significantly later in the draft and a cheaper cost.
Sometimes guys like him still fall a bit on draft day if people don’t trust the hyped projections.
When would you say Carrasco is in value territory? 7-9th rounds in the area of Cole/Cobb/Arrieta? Earlier/later??
I keep seeing this comparison and it feels really lazy to me. Just because they’re on the same team, they’re similar? How about the pre-2013 Kris Medlen as a comp?
False. I approve of this comp. Tell me a better one.
Salazar and Carrasco really aren’t similar pitchers, which is why the comp feels wrong. That said, I think the lesson of Salazar is relevant.
You mean the same Danny Salazar that is going to lose the fifth starters spot to TJ House?
I’m keeping Carrasco in my league for a 20th round pick and I could not be more ecstatic. Especially with all the CC love on Fangraphs.
“It’s almost impossible to be that good without being at least kind of close to that good.”
I agree with this sentiment. But with fair warning, I think I have said that twice before. One of those times it didn’t work out very well (Esteban Loaiza in 2003).
There have been a lot of examples of this. Ubaldo is a recent one that comes to mind. I don’t think anybody is challenging the assertion that Carrasco earned his stats last year. I think people don’t trust that he’ll be able to earn it again.
We used to argue against surface stats like ERA and look to strike out rate or ground ball rate instead. Then, we challenged those and looked to pitch type peripheral statistics, consistency of release point, pitch sequencing, or something even deeper to analyze. We have to be careful not to fall in the trap assuming those things are constants or that they only change in favor of the pitcher.
Carrasco could lose his release point. Batters could learn to lay off his slider (there was a pretty high o-swing% on it) and tee up on the fastball. He could unintentionally change his pitch sequencing. There are a ton of things that could change out of Carrasco’s favor. We don’t expect these misfortunes to happen to Kershaw, since he’s done it for longer. We have to temper expectations for Carrasco because we just don’t know if he can maintain the drastic improvements.
I dont get the carrasco love either, def way way over-hyped, it was 10 starts down the stretch. Other places make it seem like this was a 2nd half event, more like the 2nd half of the 2nd half. Plus didnt exactly face great offenses. He faced the Yanks (w/ jeter batting 2n/Drew 6th), Hou twice, CHW twice, TB and KC. Had a good game against Balt and 2 sub par outings vs Det. I’d like Carrasco if he was not so hyped, he just going to go earlier and earlier now
You are correct that he didn’t face the top teams in the league over his 10 starts, but the average full season wOBA of those teams was 12.4 and the average full season wRC+ was 11.8, so he wasn’t exactly facing the dregs either. For reference, Kershaw’s opponents averaged a wOBA of 16.9 and a wRC+ of 19.0. Guess you shouldn’t trust him either…
I like Carrasco as he’s obviously got the potential to be a top-10 kind of starter, he’s going to have the opportunity, and he’s already got one foot in the door. Over-hyped, at least on this site, is a good way to put it though.
You make a good point about the quality of competition he faced down the stretch, too. Those are teams you can challenge and overpower with a little bit of luck and a good deal of raw stuff. I wouldn’t call it enough to write off the results completely, but it does cast a shadow of doubt.
Anyways, I think his NFBC ADP is close right now, so maybe he’s not being as over-hyped as we’re led to believe.
Emcee Peepants, where are you getting those numbers from? wOBA is usually around .330ish and wRC+ is around 100. Are those rankings?
Yep sorry, average rank of wOBA and wRC+, apologies on the lack of clarity!
Trying to decide between deGrom and Carrasco in a keeper league. How do you choose which child to save from a burning building?
id choose the one in the NL, who plays in division w/ two teams dumping, plus I dont trust Carassco’s 10 starts last season, 4 of those ten were against CHW and HOu, both who have bulked up their lineups this off season
Not to pile on, but deGrom faced teams averaging 15.8 in wOBA and 17.1 in wRC+. While I agree that his success is subject to SSS effects, your argument that Carrasco feasted on crappy teams just doesn’t hold up.
I think degrom sss was twice the size, but also my point was degrom will be facing maybe worse competion, w/ abundance of Atl/Phil starts while AL teams like chw/hou have shiuld be somewhat better offensively
I agree with that, deGrom will face worse competition this year, which he also did last year. I actually meant Carrasco was subject to SSS. I am currently debating his keeper status on my own team, so the content of this article is something i have been thinking a lot about.
I’m currently debating whether to keep carrasco samardzija or teheran. Before the braves sold 3 of their top hitters, i was going to go with teheran. Any thoughts?
Am I crazy for considering keeping Carrasco over Wainwright/Frazier/Heyward?? I can only keep 3 out of the group
Is there a cost involved? i.e. Wainwright costs Rnd 5 talent and Carrasco costs Rnd 10?
If not, you’re probably crazy. I’m also crazy, which is why I would keep Carrasco over Waino or Heyward.
No cost involved……
Torn about Carrasco.
I can keep Carrasco, Betts, JD Martinez or Avisail Garcia with my 25th rounder. I can keep this player for up to 7 years. Which one?
I going with Betts at this point.
Well Avisail is the easy cut, Martinez isn’t exactly young (28 mid-season), and Carrasco is a pitcher (high attrition rate). So yea, I think Betts is the right choice. That said, you may end up regretting whichever decision you make.
A wild Duronio appears!
Betts or Carrasco. Have to decide today.
So undecided!!