The Boston Outfield: An Embarrassment of Riches

It’s time for our Depth Chart Discussions to begin. In an effort to suss out every team, we’ve divided them into four parts (infield, outfield, bullpen, and rotation) and will begin breaking them down for you over the next few weeks. You can find them gathered here.

Maybe Boston’s treating their outfield like most teams treat their starting rotation — their depth is astounding. They could fill the outfield twice over with players that could be above average given the time. The trick then, for us, is to try our best to figure out which ones will play the most. There might not be a lock in the crowd, but there’s a lot of talent.

The Lock?
Hanley Ramirez
There are two questions that lead to the punctuation mark next to the header above. The first is obvious — Ramirez hasn’t been very healthy recently. He hasn’t topped 600 plate appearances since 2012, and since 2011 started, he’s only averaged 475 plate appearances a season. It’s also probably folly to assume that Hanley won’t get hurt as much in the outfield. Corner outfielders go the disabled list more often than shortstops, a finding that’s confounded by the fact that the corner outfielder is often where old shortstops go, but still a finding that doesn’t suggest Ramirez will suddenly be healthier because of his position switch.

The other reasons for the question mark resides on the infield — Pablo Sandoval may or may not miss more time as he ages, and though Xander Bogaerts should be healthy, there’s a non-zero chance that things go the wrong way at the plate for him in his second year (more strikeouts? No added patience or power?) and the Red Sox reshuffle the deck there. Ramirez may be one of the five worst defensive shortstops over the last four years, but two teams have let him stand out there — it’s not impossible to think of a third doing the same.

The Semi-Locks
Rusney Castillo
Mookie Betts
You could make this a one-man list, but which man would you pick? The Red Sox invested a lot of money in the Cuban, and when they were both on the field, it was Castillo that played center field. Of course, that could be because the team was happy in the knowledge that Mookie Betts could play there, and wanted to see if Castillo could (lord knows the Red Sox were out of it and information-gathering mode). But still, Castillo played well in center and in this version of the story, he’s the high-priced free agent coming into town on the white horse.

Never mind the questions. The iffy concentration. The possible lack of patience. The large swing in body type between early and late looks at the Cuban. The ground-ball heavy swing that might sap power. The mediocre translated Cuban numbers (.277/.305/.413). These are the kind of questions that the Red Sox hope to answer, presumably by giving him a full season in center.

Is Mookie Betts a lock? Maybe not in some people’s minds, but this boy has fallen in love. The traditional peripherals say he can show above-average power, patience, speed, and contact — all while providing defensive value. Even if you take away power, since it was only in 200-odd PA and his projections have him taking a step back, that’s the kind of package you don’t find in a lot of 22-year-olds. Never mind his size, he’s going to factor in Boston’s plans, and heavily.

The Rest of the Story
Shane Victorino
Daniel Nava
Allen Craig
Brock Holt
Our very own depth charts have Shane Victorino ahead of Betts, and so there’s ample reason to doubt the plate appearances for both. And while I’m not going to go tell our depth chart person to change things, I’m skeptical. The first thing that comes to mind is health — dude’s a 34-year-old coming off back surgery and only had one season over 600 PA in the last four years anyway — but it’s not the only thing. Victorino is a righty that may be giving up switch hitting and has only been above-average against righties three of the ten years he’s played. And two of those years were in the 2-5% above average territory. A right-hander without much patience or speed, on a team with two (three?) guys that can play center better… he looks like a backup to me.

I said on the podcast that Allen Craig vs Daniel Nava might make for the most interesting roster spot battle in baseball. Neither can play a premium defensive position, and they really look like 13th men to me — especially considering that Brock Holt can play everywhere on the diamond.

So it’s interesting that the team tendered Nava a contract while also saying that they are focused on the short term with Craig, even to the point of trying him at third base. Doesn’t look good for either guy, but Spring may shake this out a little. A healthy spring for Craig, or a spring in which both rake and are healthy, and you may yet find 400 plate appearances for both of these players — on separate teams. That would make both of them deep league assets, with similar batting averages and power, and more on-base ability for Nava. As a switch-hitter that hasn’t recently had a Lisfranc injury, you have to give Nava the edge here.