Players to Target for OPL

The Ottoneu Prestige League is back and whether you participated last year or not, I highly recommend you play this year if your team is eligible. For those of you who have joined, or intend to join, it is time to start thinking about who you are going to target for your OPL team.

Last year, I dug into roster construction for OPL, and I am using that same analysis as my guide for OPL this year, but what about specific types of players and names?

There are, at a high level, three types of players I want to focus on rostering to OPL this year: multi-position players, players who play every day, and pitchers who go deep into games. I also want to target bulk RP and followers, but they can be harder to identify before the season gets started, so for now, I want to focus on the first three groups.

Multi-Position Players

If you checked out my roster construction pieces above, you know that you need more bats than it is possible to roster to build an ideal team for OPL. The way to make up for that is to find players who qualify at multiple positions, giving your team more flex to maximize games played each night in a best-ball format. I suggest having 4-6 1B, but if you had three 1B-only guys and all hit homers on the same night, one of those three is stuck on your bench. That’s not great.

In my FanGraphs Staff League team, which is being entered in OPL, my co-manager and I kept only one true 1B (C.J. Cron), but also kept Kyle Schwarber, Ryan Mountcastle, and Connor Joe, and traded for Alex Kirilloff. That gives us five players we can slot at 1B, but if they all go deep Opening Night, four of them can fill OF spots. We now have plenty of 1B, but if we add more 1B at auction, it is less likely to be Paul Goldschmidt (and very unlikely to be Nelson Cruz) than it is to be an OF or 3B with 1B eligibility.

Similarly, we are looking at 2B/SS, 2B/OF, 3B/OF, etc. Some specific names I would target if they are available in your league (in addition to all those 1B/OF above):

• Daulton Varsho – Varsho is likely to be an everyday OF for the Diamondbacks, and could play some C, as well. If he actually plays 150-ish games, he is going to be an elite C for OPL. His Depth Charts projection for a .327 wOBA would put him 12th among C, but his path to playing more than 100 games is much clearer than the others. He gives you an added benefit that he makes it easier to carry two catchers. My research last year suggested that a second catcher might not be ideal, but having a second catcher that can slot into the OF reduces some downside of having two catchers perform well the same day. Others who fit this bill include Eric Haase and Jorge Alfaro, but I am less confident in their playing time. Yasmani Grandal and J.T. Realmuto both have 1B eligibility, too, which gives them a bit of an OPL boost.
• Chris Taylor – There are eight players in Ottoneu with 2B/SS/3B/OF eligibility (two of whom add 1B, as well) and Taylor is clearly the best of the bunch. He led the group in games played (148) and points per game (4.95) in 2021, and there is no reason to think he won’t lead in both again in 2022. The runner up in both of those numbers, by the way, is Josh Rojas with 139 games and 4.50 P/G, though Josh Harrison (138, 4.47) was very close. If you miss on Taylor, those two are next in line. Roster Resource has Rojas leading off and Harrison in a bench role but I would watch that closely. If Harrison ends up starting in Chicago, he could surpass Rojas as a target for me – though I would rather have Rojas leading off than Harrison hitting 8th or 9th.
• Kris Bryant – 1B/3B/OF isn’t as good as adding a MI spot, but Bryant is much better than most of the other players with three or more positions. Not surprisingly, most of the best players have a spot they play and they stick there, but Bryant has played a variety of spots and that gives him a nice boost here. If you can’t get Bryant, his replacement in Chicago could be a nice replacement for you, as Patrick Wisdom is also 1B/3B/OF and his power profile plays up in a best-ball format.
• Trea Turner – I don’t think I need to say a ton here, but 2B/SS, means that Turner (or Marcus Semien) can both provide elite production and slot into four lineup spots (2B, SS, MI, U). Javier Báez, Jorge Polanco, Jazz Chisholm, and others make sense here, as well. And I would even bump up replacement level types – Luis Garcia, Nico Hoerner, Andres Gimenez – over their one-position counterparts, assuming they have starting jobs.

True Every Day Players

Even in best-ball, you can’t score if you don’t play. Only 22 players missed five or fewer games in 2021, and only 10 managed 210 or more games over 2020-21. Of those ten, three are not priorities for me – Kyle Seager is retired, Carlos Santana struggled and may lose his job, and I don’t think Isiah Kiner-Falefa will be an every day guy this year. Four more are elite bats at their positions and don’t need any “every day bonus” to increase their value further – Vlad Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman, Marcus Semien, and Matt Olson.

The other three are guys who I haven’t always targeted, but would be more likely to roster in OPL because I can count on them to be on the field.

• Whit Merrifield – His high speed, low power profile doesn’t translate as well to FanGraphs Points scoring (which is what OPL uses) as it does to 5×5, but if he can put up 150+ games mostly leading off, that will have value. Plus, since he isn’t a big boom-or-bust guy, while he won’t give you those big 20 point days, he’ll be likely to score positive points for you every. single. day. And that really helps.
• Dansby Swanson – Swanson found his power and I am a lot more interested in him than I used to be. He came up during a recent episode of Keep or Kut and while I started out concerned about him, I came around to the idea that his power may stick. If that happens, I’ll regret ranking him 24th in my SS rankings. Even without re-thinking his talent level, he moves up for OPL because of his reliability.
• Paul Goldschmidt – The bump for Goldy is small, but real. In my 1B rankings, I had him 6th, behind Guerrero, Freeman, Olson, Pete Alonso, and Rhys Hoskins. Playing time isn’t enough to boost him to the top four, but for OPL I would move him up to 5th and probably up to a tier of his own, between $25 and $30.

A caveat on this group:

From 2010-19, 212 players racked up 675+ plate appearances in a season. In the following year:

⚾️ Just 73 of them (34%) had 675+ PA again
⚾️ Average next-year PA: 594

2021’s list of 675+ PAers. #BloomBoards📊 pic.twitter.com/4oJftVHajA

— Ryan Bloomfield (@RyanBHQ) January 1, 2022

Just cause a player played a ton last year doesn’t mean they will again.

Pitchers Who Go Deep

There were 115 pitchers who threw 100+ IP as a starter last year. Nine of them average 6+ IP per start: Zack Wheeler, Adam Wainwright, Trevor Bauer, Walker Buehler, Sandy Alcantara, Framber Valdez, Gerrit Cole, Robbie Ray, and José Berríos. Bauer aside, all of these guys get a boost from me for OPL. Given that there have been some concerning reports on Wheeler’s readiness for the season, maybe be cautious with him, but the others are ideal targets for OPL. Some other names I would watch:

• Alek Manoah – He was almost at 5.2 IP per start last year as a rookie, and two of the nine pitchers above pitched for the Jays in 2021 (Ray and Berrios). As a sophomore, I expect Manoah to get more leash and the Jays have a willingness to let their SP go long.
• Logan Webb – He was exactly at 5.2 IP per start last year, and now he is going to step up as the ace for the Giants. San Francisco may stress their bullpen a bit this year, given the number of fragile arms in the rotation. That puts Webb in a spot to try to eat up more innings.
• Frankie Montas – Montas was over 5.2 IP per start last year, despite throwing only 2, 6, 6, and 4 innings in his first four starts. After that rough stretch, he was over 6 IP per start the rest of the way.