Paul Sporer’s Top 50 Third Basemen
I like the hot corner this year. There is a superstar top tier, some up-and-comers, some quality depth, and plenty of deeper league options.
I’ll have an update in early March to account for any moves, news, and/or injuries. Let me know what you think in the comments: how are you building your 3B plan? do you want an extra 3B for CI or do you prefer 1B? who is your sleeper at the position?
Here’s my list.
Other positions:
2021 3B Rankings
| RK | PLAYER | TM | ELIG. | COMMENT | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jose Ramirez | CLE | 3B | Even w/out Lindor, there’s enough lineup strength to fuel 85+ R/RBI | 11 |
| 2 | Anthony Rendon | LAA | 3B | Since ’17: t7th-highest wRC+ (146) & 1 of 15 players w/300+ R/RBI | 42 |
| 3 | Nolan Arenado | STL | 3B | Price only down 6 spots since trade to StL; he’ll still be great | 33 |
| 4 | Manny Machado | SD | 3B | Had his best non-Camden Yards run and it’s hard not be excited by what’s next | 22 |
| 5 | Alex Bregman | HOU | 3B | Struggles were overstated & plate skills remain elite | 42 |
| 6 | Rafael Devers | BOS | 3B | Rough 16 G start (.564 OPS) sank season, but last 41 were good Devers (.874) | 42 |
| 7 | DJ LeMahieu | NYY | 1B, 2B, 3B | Skills are rock solid, though perhaps the dejuiced ball will eat some HRs | 28 |
| 8 | Eugenio Suarez | CIN | 3B | Another slow start who was completely himself by season’s end by time ran out | 78 |
| 9 | Max Muncy | LAD | 1B, 2B, 3B | His 37 HR per 600 PA since ’18 are 2nd to only Suarez (39) at the position | 94 |
| 10 | Tommy Edman | STL | 2B, 3B, SS, OF | Had 27 SBs per 600 PA in 1597 MiLB PA; will deliver strong SB/R/AVG | 128 |
| 11 | Yoan Moncada | CWS | 3B | COVID hit him hard so I’m not sure we’ve seen the follow up to his breakout ’19 | 85 |
| 12 | Cavan Biggio | TOR | 2B, 3B, OF | Even if AVG lags, there’s 20 HR/20 SB w/100 R + the triple elig. | 61 |
| 13 | Jeff McNeil | NYM | 2B, 3B, OF | Pwr dipped from ’19 heights, though he did post a .211 ISO in Sept. | 87 |
| 14 | Matt Chapman | OAK | 3B | Sold out for pwr in 37 gm sample as FB% & LA soared, but so did K% (36%) | 114 |
| 15 | Kris Bryant | CHC | 3B | Had a near-identical run in ’19 (.663 OPS, 29% K in 34 gms) & ended w/a 135 wRC+ | 131 |
| 16 | Gio Urshela | NYY | 3B | Another strong 43 gms tacked onto his ’19 breakout just add some legitimacy | 161 |
| 17 | Alec Bohm | PHI | 1B, 3B | Is the power ready to put him among the top 3B? | 106 |
| 18 | Ke’Bryan Hayes | PIT | 3B | I’m kinda surprised the ADP isn’t sky-high after the 195 wRC+ in his debut | 143 |
| 19 | Josh Donaldson | MIN | 3B | It’s all about health and the lower price accounts for that risk | 195 |
| 20 | Justin Turner | FA | 3B | Aging gracefully w/a fantastic skillset… just needs a team now! | 220 |
| 21 | Brian Anderson | MIA | 3B | Personal fave who’s best is yet to come incl. 90+ R/RBI if MIA lineup improves | 227 |
| 22 | Eduardo Escobar | ARZ | 3B | Not buying ’20 as a legit decline, avg’d .266/25 HR/90 RBI/75 R from 2017-19 | 305 |
| 23 | J.D. Davis | NYM | 3B, OF | Poor glove could cost him some time if the NL doesn’t get the DH back | 222 |
| 24 | Austin Riley | ATL | 3B | If you don’t mind taking on a poor AVG, it seems like 30 HRs is a lock | 207 |
| 25 | Andrés Giménez | CLE | 2B, 3B, SS | Ran 9x in 49 gms and now joins tm w/4th-most SBs since ’18 | 169 |
| 26 | Jean Segura | PHI | 2B, 3B | Still good for a double-double & decent AVG, but 9 pt K% surge is alarming | 187 |
| 27 | Kyle Seager | SEA | 3B | His ’18 now looks like a clear outlier; will remain solid if unspectacular | 266 |
| 28 | Willi Castro | DET | 3B, SS | Not uber-concerned about 0 SBs in debut after 23 per 600 PA in minors (2608 PA) | 242 |
| 29 | Edwin Rios | LAD | 3B | If LAD doesn’t re-sign Turner, he gets 5-7 spot boost | 329 |
| 30 | Joey Wendle | TB | 2B, 3B, SS | With health, his ’18 is very much in play: 7 HR, 16 SB, .300 AVG… solidly boring | 317 |
| 31 | David Fletcher | LAA | 2B, 3B, SS | There are skills here, but they’re leveraged best in very deep leagues | 223 |
| 32 | Ryan McMahon | COL | 1B, 2B, 3B | Could get better, but nothing in his profile suggests a full-on breakout is coming | 238 |
| 33 | Jeimer Candelario | DET | 1B, 3B | I want ’20 to be real, but a .372 BABIP won’t & he feels overpriced for ~.240/20 | 248 |
| 34 | Carter Kieboom | WAS | 3B | Still major upside for the 23 y/o and now priced to buy w/0 risk | 501 |
| 35 | Isiah Kiner-Falefa | TEX | 3B, SS | What are we really buying if it doesn’t come w/that C-elig.? | 284 |
| 36 | Luis Urías | MLW | 2B, 3B, SS | He’s just 24 y/o with a mere 422 PA on his ledger, don’t give up yet | 417 |
| 37 | Evan Longoria | SF | 3B | A fine NL-only volume option as he should remain the starter | 445 |
| 38 | Maikel Franco | FA | 3B | Needs a team but even a role can only push him into the early-30s at 3B | 488 |
| 39 | Chad Pinder | OAK | 2B, 3B | Defensive improvements have opened up more PA, but bat still lags for most lgs | 552 |
| 40 | David Bote | CHC | 2B, 3B | Perfect NL Only piece w/multi-elig. & able to do a bit of everything | 529 |
| 41 | Marwin Gonzalez | BOS | 1B, 2B, 3B, OF | Has signed since 1B/2B rankings so he’s up a bit; could find PT in many spots | 518 |
| 42 | Yoshi Tsutsugo | TB | 3B, OF | There’s an adjustment period to MLB & he only got 51 gms; could drop 25+ HRs | 536 |
| 43 | Matt Carpenter | STL | 3B | If he can scrape some health together, could give it one last big hurrah | 634 |
| 44 | Mike Brosseau | TB | 1B, 2B, 3B | Isn’t he just a better Diaz at this point? | 457 |
| 45 | Yandy Díaz | TB | 3B | Oh Yandy… I didn’t see you there when I said that other thing….. | 499 |
| 46 | Isaac Paredes | DET | 3B | Return of Schoop squeezes him out of obvious PT to start the season | 584 |
| 47 | Travis Shaw | FA | 1B, 3B | Strong side platoon bat w/some defensive versatility; needs a team | 634 |
| 48 | Asdrúbal Cabrera | FA | 1B, 3B | 35 y/o needs a team; don’t forget he had 91 RBI in 131 gms in ’19 | 587 |
| 49 | Abraham Toro | HOU | 3B | If the 24 y/o found some PT, he could be an legitimate waiver target | 709 |
| 50 | Brad Miller | PHI | 3B | Always have a soft spot for him, but he’s best in NL-Only or even as a DFS play vR | 689 |
SOURCE: NFBC ADP Since 1/9
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I play in keeper leagues, so I’m looking for guys to buy for ’22.
Sleeper – Yandy Diaz:
If we are discounting 2020 then some of it can be forgiven. He had some visible shifts where he was hitting farther away in the box (Draysbay did a couple of nice pieces on him). His plate skills trended towards elite (OBP was insane) and his contact rate was excellent for a great BA. And when he did lift the ball it still was hit hard. Another thing was that he clearly lost flexibility with how much muscle and weight he put on, which could have unfortunately made it difficult to lift the ball. I think that could be part of the LA issue, but it remains to be seen what he looks like in ST. The big thing I’m actually worried about is his health. Seems to struggle to stay healthy, but I think if he does stay on the field, I think he puts it all together.
Waiver Wire target – Isaac Paredes:
Had a huge surge of power in his profile during the Mexican league (AA equivalent). This doesn’t mean it will translate, but it does give him hope for him later in the season once he grabs PT from Schoop at 2B or 3B.
There’s a really good article posted on Diaz a couple months ago about why 2020 is probably the new norm. His BB% will continue to be elite, but his power will be non-existent. Pitchers and Diaz are in essentially a stalemate. Unless something changes to force pitchers to not pitch Diaz low and away. But yeah, look up the article on FG Yandy Diaz and the Groundball Revolution
Wowza that’s a suuuuper high Edman rating. I don’t think he has the on base skills to be that high, but he does have a bit of speed rare for the position and enough power to not embarrass I guess
I agree. The fact that he had 2 SB and 4 CS last year also kind of indicates he’s not really even a speed threat. He shouldn’t be ranked above Moncada, Jeff McNeil, Cavan Biggio, Matt Chapman, and Kris Bryant, even if he did have elite speed.
But he’s 17/22 as a major leaguer so I can’t really see why I’d isolate ’20 and try to give it any real weight.
I know rankings are subjective but that Edman ranking is insanity. Especially with how deep this position is
100%. Big fan of Paul’s, but this one was weird and unjustifiable, imo
The Cardinals had a ridiculously compressed schedule last year due to covid cancellations, so their 2020 stats are a lot easier to explain away even beyond the SSS. If Paul buys Edman’s 2019 statline as more representative of his talent level, he’s a 20-30 HR/SB threat (15-25 more likely) with a solid average. That’s slightly better than Biggio, which is right where he’s ranked.
I’m buying a .280/.350/.430 20 HR, 30 SB season from Edman. Throw in the fact that he’s likely the Cardinals leadoff hitter in front of Carlson, Goldschmidt, Arenado, and DeJong and you can bank 100+ runs too. He’ll be valuable.
Dish on Ke’Bryan, Sporer. Your comment calls out ADPs for being low, but you’ve got him ranked pretty low too. Not even a starter for a 15 team league. And, you know what, man? I get it. I feel that way too. Why do we feel this way? The statcast data is good, he runs, and he’s gonna play every day because of that glove. Yeah the team sucks, but he’s a guy hitting 3rd, who could go for 20 homers, 10 steals, a decent average, and should have good counting stats with plenty of upside. But nobody is drafting him that way. What gives?
The statcast data is real shaky because it was only 95 PAs. He can run and the glove is elite. I wouldn’t bet on him hitting 20 homers or stealing 15 bases. Maybe he broke out power wise in 2020 but power was never part of his skill set. He’s carried a 50 tag since day one and there hasn’t been much data to change that view. He ran a .450 BABIP in a 95 PA sample. That’s unsustainable to say the least. I still think he’s a solidly above average regular in real life but the elite glove doesn’t help in the fantasy baseball game.
Good god you are high on Edman. I’ll take Candy over Castro as well
Keep an eye on Rockies prospect Ryan Vilade in spring training and whether he’s getting more innings at 3B or LF. Not sure how to compare alternate site experience and fall instructs to the year he would have spent at AA in 2020, but I think expectations for this year are to start at AAA and move up to MLB at some point. I don’t think anyone doubts the bat or the makeup (coach’s son) but it remains to be seen whether he is only playable in an OF corner or whether he gets reps at 3B. Still, he may gain positional eligibility there.
Rockies + prospects are like oil and water. Surely you jest.
A bunch of guys on this list have more value as 2Bs, but the hot corner is legitimately 15-20 deep.
In all but the deepest leagues it’s hard to imagine using a 1st round pick on Ramirez (weak lineup, declining speed, deadened ball all feel like risk factors).
Nice rankings outside of Edman. Cannot really quote minor league stolen bases.
Sure you can if they have premium speed that’s present at the majors
He was 2/6 on SB last year though. He has elite sprint speed, but that’s a different thing than base stealing. Just food for thought. Love your work overall, big fan, no shade
And was successful on 15 of 16 in 2019. A career 77% success rate will play.
His sprint speed is in the 95th percentile. Can we talk about that?
Carpenter’s issue isn’t health. It’s that he’s just sucked the last two seasons despite being healthy.
Normally, someone having issues in 2020 wouldn’t be much of a problem, but given it was a continuation of his poor 2019 season, his age, and his projected lack of playing time, and a rebound isn’t very likely.
Almost anyone at 3b for colorado is still a good dark horse bet.
DJ back in NY,3 positions,a lock.
Ditto to Muncey.
Rio Ruiz
Not even in Top 50? Is he not expected to start? I understand his limitations but I thought the PAs alone merit an appearance on the list. Or maybe his exclusion is a ringing indictment …
He’s in the realm of some of those last few guys, but I cut it off at 50 and his .230/20/70 outlook just wasn’t doing much for me even over someone like Shaw who is currently jobless. Camden could foster a Ruiz breakout and if you prefer him to Shaw or even my boy Brad Miller, I can’t really quibble too much.