Ottoneu Hot Right Now: September 27th, 2023
The 2023 version of Ottoneu Hot Right Now will include three different sections:
- Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
- Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
- Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.
The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.
Current Auctions
Orion Kerkering – 110 current auctions
Look no further than Michael Baumann’s summary of Kerkering’s debut for details on the young relievers hype and where it comes from. If you really want to dive deep, take a look at Eric Longenhagen’s early season summary of the Phillies system where he placed Kerkering at 19 in the organization. He explained Kerkering’s inconsistency in 2022 but wrote:
Here slider quality projects to carry him to a consistent on-roster middle relief role, ahead of the slew of up/down velo bullies who also reside in this system.
If you’re a fan of Stuff+, you’ll love Orion. His slider through only one inning of work in the majors is reading 171, which is fifth behind pitchers such as Jacob deGrom (T-second, 179) and Ryan Pressly (T-second, 179). With only a few games left in the season, Kerkering won’t help you win your league. But, he could be a good bet for the future. He’s only 22 years old and has displayed very, very good stuff.
Hurston Waldrep – 30 current auctions
The 21-year-old finished the minor league season with a dominant AAA debut, leaving some expecting the Braves to call him up for a major league debut in the final week of the season. Waldrep made at least one start in all four levels of the minor leagues this season (A, A+, AA, AAA). The Braves have had eight different starting pitchers 25 or younger take the mound this season and proved, especially with a pitcher like AJ Smith-Shawver, that they are not afraid to call up pitchers with little minor-league experience. Regardless of whether Waldrep makes his debut this season or not, he’s a promising young pitcher in a system that seems to be cranking out promising young pitchers. He’s worth a look for a low price as a building block on Ottoneu rosters.
David Peterson – 28 current auctions
Peterson backed up a 10-strikeout game on September 15th, with a seven-strikeout game in his next outing on the 21st. His K/9 in the past two seasons has been above 10, but his HR/9 has been above or nearly above one. His slider remains an excellent pitch from a Stuff+ perspective at 106 and according to his PitcherList player page it falls into the 92nd percentile in swinging strikes. RosterResource has Peterson lined up to start against the Marlins on Thursday for those who are looking to add streamers to finish out the year. For those looking to the future, the Mets will likely keep Peterson in the rotation through a re-build season and he could be a sneaky bet for next year as an accumulator with a good slider.
James McArthur – 27 current auctions
Now listed as a co-closer in Kansas City by RosterResource’s Closer Depth Chart, McArthur is a “Reliver on the Rise”. The 26-year-old righty has collected three saves in his last four appearances and hasn’t allowed an earned run since August 16th. As the season comes to an end, he may be worth adding to your team as a low-cost keeper with closer upside for next season. But, if you need a few saves and can add him now, you may just get one or two more before the year is over.
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Roster Adds
Nelson Velázquez – Add% Change (7 Days) – 53.2%
Those who read Velázquez’s player page prospect TLDR:
Velazquez’s power should lead to some fat peak years, while his approach is apt to create some lean, low-OBP campaigns. On balance he projects as a thumping five- or six-hole hitter on a good team.
are likely happy to claim some affordable power with upside for next season. He’s hit 17 home runs but has a .233/.305/.613 slug line with a 27.5% K%.
Wilyer Abreu – Add% Change (7 Days) – 13.5%
The 24-year-old left-handed outfielder has a very impressive major league slash line in his rookie year (.371/.435/.565). He’s also stolen three bases. His 10.1% walk rate in the majors has come down from what he displayed in the minors, but that was expected from Eric Longenhagen’s early season write-up of the prospect:
While some of Abreu’s sky-high walk rate from 2022 was due to sheer passivity at the plate, the power component of his profile is real.
I really like the projection for Abreu as a speedy, powerful young outfielder, especially with an early career slash line like this.
Mark Vientos– Add% Change (7 Days) – 8.65%
At the start of the season, Vientos was ranked sixth in the Mets’ system. He proved what he could do in AAA, slashing .306/.387/.612 with a 10.8% walk rate. But that walk rate dropped to 3.7% in the majors while his AAA 21.6% K% rose to 30.4% in the majors. In 60 major league games, Vientos is slashing .219/.257/.373. He’ll need some time to adjust to major league pitching and it’s hard to say whether the Mets will send him back down to bring him back up. But, with a Mets team that has vocally committed to some kind of 2024 re-build, Vientos could be a good stash for re-building fantasy teams.
Willi Castro – Add% Change (7 Days) – 6.7%
Castro’s September slash line sits at .297/.343/.594. Compare that with his season slash line of .251/.326/.412 and you’ll see that he has had a very solid month. In that time, he’s stolen three bases and hit four home runs. He has been a great addition to competing fantasy teams and at only 26 years of age, Castro has keeper potential.
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Hot Performers
Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.
Nolan Jones – (14.2 P/G)
Jones is slashing .341/.467/.671 in September with six home runs and nine stolen bases. In that time, he lowered his season K% of 29.7% to 19.0% and his BB% in September is up to 18.1%, compared to his season mark of 12.7%. I’d say he’s figuring out a lot in his rookie year and has a lot of potential in keeper leagues.
TJ Friedl – (10.8 P/G)
Friedl has been on a roll this season and has been officially dubbed a “breakout” by Chris Gilligan. He’s two home runs away from going 20-20 this year and anyone who held on to the 28-year-old in Ottoneu leagues is finally enjoying the fruits. He’s currently on a seven-game hit streak and has hit four home runs in that time with two stolen bases. He has run a .309 BABIP on the season, but that’s not necessarily all luck given his speed and ability to get on base.
Seth Lugo – (4.85 P/IP)
Lugo has posted exactly seven strikeouts in each of his last three starts. His ERA in that time is 2.18 and he’s earned two wins, going at least six innings in each start. He’s unlikely to get another start in 2023.
Reese Olson – (5.41 P/IP)
In Olson’s last three starts, he has a 1.53 ERA. In those three starts, he recorded 19 strikeouts but gave up two home runs. He also earned two wins. He may make the last start of the season on Sunday for the Tigers, but he’s only 24 and could be a nice pitcher to look at in keeper leagues.