Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – September 2nd, 2026

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, y’all, thanks for coming out!!

yochuckie: Two possibly three weeks remaining in the fantasy season/playoffs. Does Julio Rodriguez get an opportunity to make up some ground in his supposed second half extravaganza or is he just who he is? A healthy version of LuBob?

Paul Sporer: Yeah we didn’t get our normal elite JRod in the second half. After a huge May, it looked like maybe he was gonna finally get a monster season top to bottom, but that turned out to be his only good one. A .250 2H BABIP is really holding him back. He’s one of those stars who isn’t meeting expectations but is still too good to take outta the lineup in most situations

MD: Looks like Fried/Warren piggybacking this week after a short outing last week. Weekly league, you rolling with him next week (NYM), or would you take Bennet (LAA) or even Painter (HOU, @ATL)?

Paul Sporer: Over your Fried you’re saying?

Paul Sporer: I’d probably lean Bennett straight up for this week, especially since Fried will likely get the frontend and not be eligible for the W

clydethedog: talk me off the ledge with Paul Skenes. Have him in an NL keeper league and am nervous he is losing value by the start

Paul Sporer: Assuming he’s healthy, I’m not particularly concerned despite the inconsistent 2H. Seems to be trying to consciously working with lower velo and it’s obv not quite worked as he’d hoped but a 22% K-BB is still elite and that’s going to be the key driver for me. Again, unless there’s some bad news down the road of injury that affects in any way, I think he’ll be fine and back to being elite next year. As for his keeper status, I wouldn’t trade him on the heels of this season just bc of the value lost given the struggles. Tonsssss of superstars have blip off years and bounce right back the following year

MD: Sorry – my Fried question was about next week. Was providing context that short outing last week, likely short this week gives me concerns about next week. Sounds like it might be a “see how this week goes” situation?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I know he won’t be turned loose this week, but should add some pitches to the 63 he has last time out which could be enough to get 5 IP if he’s dealing. I think I’d just sit this one out and then jump back in w/Fried fully next wk

Ice Cream Helmet: What’s Grant Taylor’s role in 2027 gonna look like?

Paul Sporer: I really don’t know. It’s something I’ll be eagerly looking into, but until we get word from the White Sox, it’s pure speculation. I’m one of those sickos who participates in fall/winter drafts so I’ll be keeping an eye on his price point. I still think they should pursue Reid Detmers in an offseason trade and then fully commit to Taylor as a lockdown RP

Ropeia: Hi, 10 team QS league with 6 keepers. Is Bradish worth a keeper slot in the 17th round over a young gun like Melton?

I have a roster crunch and is he worth holding on to over Ty France now that James Wood is back? I’d have no backup CI, but I need more pitching help than hitting help

Paul Sporer: Not for me… I’m still huge on Melton! We haven’t seen it consistently this year, but he has the swing-and-miss to be a true ace, IMO. He’s sort of a Sandy Alcantara statistical comp right now with the underwhelming Ks relative to other studs, but the upside is very rich. Definitely prefer him to Bradish

MD: After X Edwards hit the IL, i’m down to my only shortstop being Blaze Alexander. Should I pick up Story off the wire, or is Blaze enough to ride out (#1 seed in a playoff run) and instead pick up Bennett to try to push Ks (Conine would be the corresponding drop)

Paul Sporer: Gotta go for Story, IMO! Blaze has been nice, but Story has game-changing upside if he can stay healthy for the month and jumps into a hot Red Sox lineup

jimleylandpalmer: Was a bit surprised to see your high ranking of Jax for today, you think he’ll be full go? Enough to qualify for a W?

Paul Sporer: No you’re right to call it out. I mistakenly thought he returned from IL last week and absentmindedly ranked him under that notion. He should’ve been more in the 2-x group with a strong potential to go fewer than 5 IP (went 3 IP, 42 pitches in his rehab).

duckboathopeful: I have a bit of a roster crunch coming up, and will need to activate Ketel, Will Smith, and Riley Greene; to do so, I’d need to drop Keaschall, Dingler, and either Vinnie P or Cags. Are those moves OK or should I just drop any of the returning players?

Paul Sporer: Boy, these are tough. Keaschall has been blazing hot since July 1st with a .958 OPS, 7 HR, and 4 SBs (though also 4 CS). And given how meh Ketel’s been this year (108 OPS+), I’m not so sure I wouldn’t just stick w/Keasch. With just a month left, it’s not like we’ve got a ton of time for Marte to push back toward his career marks. Sure, there’s a world where Keaschall spends the month regressing and Marte pops off, but I think I’m holding there.

The C one might be the hardest of the group. Dingler just had the month from the hell as the dog days seem to be catching up to him. But similar to Marte, the proven star in this comparison – Will Smith – isn’t exactly lighting things up, either. And because of that, I’m holding Dingler here, too.

Greene for Vinnie P feels pretty easy to me. So I’d go Keaschall, Dingler, Greene. Yes, it’s 2 Tigers, but I assure you my fandom isn’t driving these decisions.

The Usual SusBeck: Time to move on from Kirby if we are trying to maintain ratios in H2H playoffs? Would Painter be an acceptable replacement?

Paul Sporer: Yes, at least on the road! I’d keep Kirby’s weekend start v. ATH and then cut him this weekend as he heads to ATH next week. Painter isn’t a bad replacement, though I presume you’d have to move on him today and I’d rather keep Kirby’s weekend start. If you want to leave a comment on the Friday SP Chart with some options to consider on the weekend (assuming you don’t know who might be available right now) after Kirby’s start, I’d happily give some thoughts assuming Painter doesn’t remain available

porchovilla: I dropped Tucker today to activate James Wood. Crunch time in H2H playoffs with no signs of a turnaround. It was either him or Perdomo, Butler, or Josh Baez (5×5 with OBP). Have I lost my mind or is this defensible?

Paul Sporer: Thoroughly defensible. I do everything in my power to push y’all not to make these kinds moves in Apr-May with proven stars (and sure, this one would’ve been right now that we have hindsight, but more often than not, the stars rebound) but you’ve waited more than enough to see if Tucker would improve. It’s just clearly a lost season and now that we’re in playoffs for H2H and crunchtime for rotos, moves like this are far more viable

Scotty G: Would you trust Pivetta or Musgrove or neither in any potential H2H playoff matchups?

Paul Sporer: In the short-term, prefer Piv at SFG compared to Musgrove v. WAS w/Wood back. They’re both VERY risky comin off the IL, but almost assuredly MUUUUCH better than anything you can find on most wires.

JMKUHNER: Is it getting to the point where we have to wonder if our fantasy hitters are going to be called upon for mop up duty and blow our pitching ratios? Can’t have McKinstry throwing up 37 mph meatballs and losing some point in my ERA & WHIP cuz I’m trying hit a GP limit on my SS…

Paul Sporer: Wait you have to eat the hitter pitching stats????? That’s BRUUUUUTALLLLL

Mike: Would you lean Luis Robert, H. Rodriguez or H. Hernandez as a depth outfielder going into the playoffs? 12 team h2h. Tawa would also be in consideration given his multi-positional eligibility. just not sure he has the upside of the others

Paul Sporer: Gotta line ’em up and see what kinda matchups they’re facing. Here’s a leaderboard of the 4 with some pertinent stats over the L30 days. I think Hector immediately hits the bottom of the list with at LAD/at MIL next week. Tawa gets at KCR/TEX and I thought as a righty, his getting 4 lefties would be good, but he really hasn’t hit lefties this year at all!

Robert gets CLE/at TOR (incl. Cease) with 2 lefties. CLE is a good pitching team and TOR’s ace is slated to go (though Max and Arrighetti not as scary in the other 2). And then Heriberto gets NYM/LAD, including 3 lefties. Snell isn’t easy, of course, but better a great lefty than great righty for Heriberto. So just with this quick & dirty look, I’m thinking Heriberto/Robert are my leaders in the clubhouse and then you can pick b/w those 2

HappyFunBall: Max Meyer’s done for the year right? I can’t imagine there’s any time to rehab him and get him into a real game. And not likely MIA is going to push him for no playoffs…

Paul Sporer: That’s how I’m operating. Shutdown from throwing last week and no real reason to push him for the exact reasons you laid out

duckboathopeful: Thank you for answering my question, and for all your help this year! Additional Tigers actually helps…I renamed my team Danger Tiggers after noticing I’d collected McGonigle, Dingler, Melton, Greene, and Mize (in spirit).

Paul Sporer: Rough year for my boys, but you had the right ones from a fantasy perspective at least!!!

clydethedog: Giants have such a shaky bullpen. Is this just a complete overhaul in the offseason or do they stick with their “closer” from this year?

Paul Sporer: They may’ve found something with Dylan Smith, but I’d be surprised if he was named the closer with any certainty before March. I will spend the fall/winter drafts treating that job as a open

The Usual SusBeck: I am currently in a 10 tm H2H with OPS added playoff.  I have Manny Machado at 3B.  He seems very risky to keep running out there.  Should I cut bait in favor of a waiver pickup.

Paul Sporer: It’s crazy because when the AVG was lagging, he had legit power (19 HRs, .203 AVG in the 1H — 30 HRp600 PA pace) and then the AVG started to regress and I thought/hoped he was back, but it’s really just flipped with the AVG a lot more palatable at .253 in 2H but just 5 HRs (16 p600 PA). All that to say, I can see moving on from him, but I’d really be curious who’s available before fully committing to that.

glenb0828: Paul, good afternoon! Who is it for you? McGonigle or Konnor Griffen? A high probability very good floor, with some upside vs monster upside / best player in baseball potential? It’s a keeper situation that needs to be determine this off-season. Can only keep one. 🙁

Paul Sporer: Mannnn, so tough to be able to keep just 1. I think from a fantasy angle, it’s probably gotta be Griffin with the game-changing speed. McGonigle does everything well but nothing ELITE (at least not yet, we’ll see how he develops) but we saw Griffin go 20-for-21 in just 247 PA which is nearly a 50 SB pace p600 PA. So in this one, I gotta go against my Tiger! I’m not sure either answer is wrong, tbh, but Griffin likely carries the better fantasy upside because of that speed (bc it’s not like it’s JUST the speed, either).

trident13: Where do you have Freddy Peralta ROS after last nights start?  Is he back?

Paul Sporer: I maintain a very loose board of rankings in between my updates just so I’m not doing everything from scratch (final in-season update out next week, btw!) and he’s in the 70s. I suspect somewhere in the 60-80 range when i sort everything out next week. Maybe into the 50s just due to attrition? But ya, back-to-back gems is nice

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta roll! Thank you so much for keeping the questions comin. With football lurking, it’s diehard season so I never know what the traffic of a September chat might look like, but y’all keep it packed! I should have that last SP ranking update up before next week’s chat so we can discuss that and I imagine we’ll have a lot of specific questions about playoff lineups and such as we grind out these final weeks in search of a title! Take care, y’all 🫡