Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – September 18th, 2024

Transcript is now available!

1:05

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, everyone, thanks for coming out!

1:05

PG: Are we trusting the next two Rangers SPs against the Jays?  Bradford and then Kumar Rocker?

1:06

Paul Sporer: Definitely depends on league size. The Jays are looking more like the offense we assumed they’d be coming into the season, so I’m being cautious going against them

1:06

Dinger Hunter: H2H playoffs need to add a hitter. Pick one for the rest of this week and glory: 1. Tyler Fitzgerald 2. Otto Lopez 3. M. Rojas 4. Pavin 5. Meadows

1:09

Paul Sporer: Fitz/Meadows are my 2 faves and I lean Meadows. Only 2 lefties on the docket for them the rest of the way and a final weekend series v. CHW

1:09

JT: need to set up 1 last start this week and hopefully celebrate a championship, 10tm, h2h, redraft, which of these 3 do i take; Arrighetti @ LAA, B. Lively @ STL, M. Boyd @ STL or Y. Darvish CWS ?

1:10

Paul Sporer: Arrighetti & Darvish are my 2 faves there. We gotta pick on the Sox and lean Darvish.

1:10

Patrick: From a ratios perspective, do you have any concerns with starting Steele today?

1:10

Paul Sporer: Maybe a liiittle, but that’s mitigated by him returning from IL and they’ll likely pull him before things get out of hand

1:11

PG: Thanks Paul.  One more – I Picked up Joc Pederson for the Coors games and he did nothing.  Is he worth holding on to for the MIL RHPs?  Minimum adds left so gotta be careful.

1:12

Paul Sporer: I like holding Joc heading to MIL. Still a homer park and only 1 potential lefty SP (if DL Hall starts Friday)

1:12

Dinger Hunter: For my last question we’re currently in the championship week. Do I go with Fitz still?

1:13

Paul Sporer: Ohh this is the final week… Interestingly, SF and DET have the same schedule this week, just inverted, w/BAL & KC for both. Meadows gets the Orioles guys in BAL and Fitz gets the KC guys in KC. I will actually lean a little more toward Fitz based on next week not mattering

1:13

Greg: I’m up against the #1 seed in my league who is arguably creating his own dynasty team with Championship wins in 2022, last year, and was by far the best team this year in my league. So what do I do to try to get an edge…pick up Deitmers against Chicago….Welp at least I’ll have awesome keepers for next year and will finish no lower than 4th. I’ll call it a win compared to last year last place finish. Appreciate all your work in the fantasy industry.

1:14

Paul Sporer: Detmers really pissed me off, lol. I know it’s baseball and I would never be some freak who like tweets him or some shit, but man I was SO hyped on a strong Detmers finish and OF ALL TEAMS TO MERK HIM!!! Maybe you can hit a mid-late week rally and overcome the Detmers Dud (is it weekly move lgs and you’re stuck w/hi HOU start this wknd, too?)

1:14

MS: We feeling good about a Lugo bounce back vs SF over the weekend?

1:14

Paul Sporer: Yes, definitely leaving him in the lineup for that one

1:14

JT: Last 4 days of season, which hitter do i go with, M. Harris II (4 games A CIN & MIA) Toglia (3 games @ LAD) J. Pederson (4 games @ MIL) or T. Casas ( 4 games, 1 @ TB, 3 vs MIN)

1:16

Paul Sporer: Casas, Joc, Harris, Toglia is my order. Toglia is auto-out w/no home gms and 1 fewer than the other 3. The other 3 are all lefties who have a rush of righties coming. As mentioned earlier, Joc might have 1 if DL Hall goes for MIL. Casas and Harris are looking at 4 RH apiece. I still like Joc a little more than Harris even if Hall goes, but Casas is my top pick

1:16

Guest: H2h semi finals this week. Someone dropped schwlenbach the other week and he’s still available. The original plan was to pick him up for today but Steele got activated today. Would you take the free move of Steele or use one up to drop him for Scwlenbach. I have 10min to decide lol

1:17

Paul Sporer: I’d use the move on Schwelly, what if Steele is limited? OAK isn’t a complete walkover, either

1:17

MS: Beyond CWS, do you see any other teams we should be picking on for streaming purposes?

1:18

Paul Sporer: CHW, MIA, SEA, WSH, COL (on road), LAA, TBR, PIT, STL, TEX (vL), CLE (vR)

1:19

Greg: Luckily it’s a daily move league. I already dropped him for Stroman who picked me up some decent ratios last night along with a save along with Snell to give me a chance at a weekend turnaround.

1:19

Paul Sporer: OK phew! (that in reference to Detmers)

1:19

Guest: H2H 6×6 need to bench one of butler, meadows, carpenter, suzuki, buxton, reynolds for championship week next week

1:22

Paul Sporer: man oh man that’s tough… Reynolds, I guess. Strong group to work from!

1:22

picking on CWS: WHY IS THIS NOT WORKING

1:23

Paul Sporer: LOL, they have annoying popped a decent handful of streamers recently, but I promise it’s still the right move!

1:23

Guest: Were there any times this season where you had to take a few days off from baseball? I fell out of the baseball world for a solid month since my team was doing so poorly. It’s tough for me to not get discouraged sometimes over the long season.

1:27

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure. I’m obsessed with baseball and have no problems w/it being year-round for me, but I still have to take some nights off during the season where I just dive into something else that isn’t baseball. Movies, TV, board games, etc… but sometimes it’s just sleep!

The Tigers clawing back into this race has given me an extra kick of energy to get to the finish line and I’m excited for the playoffs even if the Tigers don’t make it. That said, I’m also looking forward to the October decompress without the daily crush of games before dialing it back up in November for offseason analysis.

1:27

DJ: Looking ahead to 2025 which first baseman has a better chance to produce a bounce back season, Spencer Torkelson or Christian Encarnacion-Strand?

1:31

Paul Sporer: Not trying to be a super Tigers homer bc I def loved CES coming into the year, but he essentially lost an entire year. And I know Tork greatly underwhelmed on the hype he built last yr, but he still played. I will lean his way

1:31

Bobby: How crazy is it to try and pick on baltimore for streamers in the final week? Their offense has been dreadful for a while

1:31

Paul Sporer: And I’m still not totally used to wanting to face them IN CAMDEN

1:32

Paul Sporer: Just 100000% the opposite of how it was before the wall move. Camden in the summer was like Coors Lite… pick up any ol’ AL Easter going to BAL for a few sets to scoop some cheap HRs

1:32

Guest: I almost picked up Feltner for last night as a joke

1:36

Paul Sporer: I *really* like Feltner and even recommend him a decent # of times on the road in the Daily SP Chart, but I did balk v. ARI bc they’ve been SO good. But Feltner has been super bankable on the road for the last several months. After 4 of his 7 roadies going sideways, he has a 2.26 ERA in 9 starts on the road!

1:36

JT: looking for saves; A. Munoz, J. Duran, T. Scott or A. Diaz ?

1:37

Paul Sporer: I think I’d just lay out the schedules of that group and see who has the best shot at  save-able games.

1:37

Bobby: in dynasty, trying to decide whether to hold Fairbanks, Erceg and J Martinez over the offseason. Odds they retain closer roles going into next year?

1:38

Paul Sporer: Erceg is the one for me. I think he can absolutely be the dude for KC from day 1. Fairbanks will be their A guy when healthy, but that health track record has just scared me off, espec. for a keeper. Martinez could be ARI’s guy, but I think they’d prefer him as a stopper type w/a more bankable guy in the 9th

1:39

Paul Sporer: These days teams aren’t necessarily as worried about their best guy being the closer. He can close at times, but a lot of teams are happy to let their best RP be the fireman/stopper coming in at the hottest moments even if it’s not the 9th inning and then a steady bankable #2 option who handles the 9th more consistently

1:39

Guest: Jordan is 13th in the champion league qualifier – how hard will you be pulling for him to stay in top 15? Will we get an article from him once the season is over on the whole thing?

1:41

Paul Sporer: I have been fully dialed in on the Overall Standings, rooting for my guys — Gregg Martin in 4th, Fangraphs’ own Jordan Rosenblum in 16th, and Rotowire’s James Anderson in 20th! Jordan and I have been talking regularly about his frayed nerves as he makes his run. I can definitely see if he’d like to do a write-up about his fantastic season. He’s joining us for the positional lists this year!!

1:41

Rick: Adell hit 20 homeruns, stole bases, and low .200 average. Anyway, seemed to make some great strides before getting hurt. Can you see him as a 30 homerun guy with an average more in the .230 to .240 range?

1:52

Paul Sporer: Yeah if the playing time is there, he can absolutely go 30/20 even if he hits like low-.200s if LAA commits 550+ PA to him. That said, I don’t think they can if he doesn’t show some improvements there. His plate skills improved some this year but only bc his previously HEINOUS K% rate is simply just bad now at 28%.

He no doubt deserved better than a .244 BABIP so I can see a path to an average north of .220 w/a BABIP more in line w/his .281 career mark. Here’s the good thing, he will remain dirt cheap if you want to stay bought in. He is still just 26 yrs old, too. We saw Victor Robles take a nice step forward this year (despite constantly getting nicked up of late). If Adell could have a big K% drop like Robles, that’d be amazing, but I see no reason to believe that’s forthcoming

1:53

Daniel: Only have $2 FAAB left in my 15 team roto (no $0 bids allowed). Would you use the last 2 claims on Rocker and Cantillo? Other available options with good upcoming matchups would be Canning, Hurter, and Davis Martin. I’m in somewhat of a tight race in all 5 pitching categories

1:56

Paul Sporer: Still have some nerves w/Rocker facing that hot Toronto offense bc even he does well, it could be sub-5 IP. I love the Cantillo scoop, huge fan of him. I scooped Davis Martin 2-step for his final week 2-step and I think in a 15-teamer, you might be better off going for the 2 starts over 1 w/that last $1. I think I go Cantillo/Martin/Rocker/Hurter/Canning

1:56

Guest: 16 team H2H, I picked up Pivetta for the two-step, and he wasn’t great last night. Worth holding onto for the weekend matchup against Minnesota? Scherzer is available

2:02

Paul Sporer: Pivetta is so damn annoying. Just so volatile that he’s easy to mis-time, where you’re eating the shit and missing the gems. I think he and Scherzer are pretty close in their respective matchups, especially w/SEA playing better of late. Both are home, both are winnable matchups. Tiny lean toward Pivetta just bc they are still ostensibly in it whereas TEX isn’t

2:02

E: Hey Paul! In my h2h semifinals. Are you throwing Rocker against Tor tomorrow? I’m just chasing solid innings, not too worried about w or qs. How do you feel about Tobias myers tomorrow against AZ? Crochet getting bumped from laa today to sdp thurs was a bummer. Would you still look to deploy him as an innings boost for ratios or is it too dangerous in a h2h now?

2:03

Paul Sporer: Good on Rocker in your situation where even 4 good IP is enough. Pass on Myers v. the Snakes, they terrify me. And yes that Crochet move is KILLER from LAA to SDP and would move me off him. The upside is just so limited and while you did say you don’t need W/QS, I still don’t like facing SDP here

2:03

Biscuit: Need a streamer starter between Thursday and Sunday. You going Cantillo or Littel?

2:03

Paul Sporer: Cantillo!

2:04

Does Chewbacca use TP: Is this Shea Langeliers’s ceiling? Trying to decide if I should keep him at slight bargain next year or not in a 10 team AL only.  If he can raise his BA up 30 points he’d be a stud, but I feel like this is wishful thinking…

2:04

Paul Sporer: He will probably a spike a .240-250 type season at some point, but I would always project him in the .220-.230 range w/primo pop. I like holding in an AL Only

2:05

Daniel: Why do I only get one pitcher on the roster when I look on the data chart for each team?

2:05

Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-chart-september-18th-20… Are you talking about my Daily SP Chart? It’s just for the day in question. So the sheet for tomorrow’s games will come out tonight and so on

2:06

Paul Sporer: I will also run a weekend board for y’all again

2:06

JD: In a 6×6 keeper league, would you keep Bryan Woo or Jared Jones going into next season

2:06

Paul Sporer: I lean Jonesy there

2:07

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, great stuff. I have to get going. Good luck if this your championship week. Feel free to ask any questions in the comments of the SP charts. I’ll be back for next week and then probably a few weeks off for chats in October. Take care, y’all!





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

2 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
joemac34
1 month ago

Do you have any minor league RP that you’ll be focusing on in 2025?