Ottoneu Hot Right Now: Sep 18, 2024

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

  1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
  2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
  3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Nick Yorke – 41 current auctions

The 22-year-old second baseman made his major league debut this week and stole a base after getting on due to a fielder’s choice. His second game was more productive as he went 3-for-4. He played 2B in both games. When Yorke was with the Red Sox, before being traded to Pittsburgh in exchange for SP Quinn Priester, he was ranked the 13th-best prospect in the organization. At the time, Eric Longenhagen wrote:

He lacks huge top-end power and swing loft, but he consistently hits the ball hard, with a 46% hard-hit rate at Portland and a 55% mark so far at Worcester. A rare righty low-ball hitter, he might be tested by big league velocity; Yorke’s tendency has been to inside out harder fastballs, which might be an indication he’ll be late on those. The hitting talent in Yorke’s hands is quite exciting, and while he’s flawed and will have to come off the field for defensive reasons late in games, he’s a well-rounded hitter whose game power might take a leap with an adjustment to his swing. Yorke has done nothing but hit his entire (healthy) career as a prospect and is a pretty good bet to be put on Boston’s 40-man this offseason.

Once he was traded to the Pirates, his trade deadline prospect round-up was similar:

Below-average 2B/LF defender with strong hitting track record. Bizarre reverse splits, hits righties much better. Not quite a regular because of his defense.

Yorke has quickly proven his bat skills as he singled three times on line drives in Tuesday’s game (9/17) against the Cardinals, but it’s hard to ignore all the negative reports on his defense. In addition, rostering players with no power in an Ottoneu points league is a poor strategy. In roto-formats however, Yorke could be a nice pickup-and-keep-type of player in hopes that his 2024 AAA batting averages:

.355 in 175 PA for AAA PIT

.310 in 169 PA for AAA BOS

.333 in 344 PA AAA total in 2024

quickly translate to the big leagues.

Sebastian Walcott – 28 current auctions

Walcott is an 18-year-old SS who was just promoted to the Rangers’ Double-A Frisco squad. Let’s go through the progression of his scouting reports:

2024 MLB Top 100 (2/15/2024), ranked 91st:

The timing of his footwork in the box isn’t great and he ends up lunging at breakers, plus Walcott’s swing is driven by his bottom hand in a path that slopes down unless he’s making contact way out in front, and he often has no chance at hitting pitches on the outer edge. Couple that with a fuzzy defensive projection because of Walcott’s size and error-prone early career look at short and there are teams that don’t think he carries this much weight. But he already has nearly plus raw big league power at age 17 and could feasibly produce on offense like peak Javier Báez if Walcott’s hit tool develops enough.

Texas Rangers Top 40 (7/12/2024), ranked 3rd:

He went to the D.R. for the start of the DSL season, but was quickly promoted to the Arizona Complex League and lit things up for a month before opponents realized he couldn’t recognize a breaking ball. He ended up having a .273/.325/.524 line in Arizona with a terrifying 6.4% walk rate and 32.5% strikeout rate. The Rangers sent Walcott, who turned 18 during spring training, straight to High-A at the start of 2024. As of this update, he is somehow sporting an above-average Sally League wRC+ even though he remains sushi raw in most facets of the game.

Hitting Prospects Updates: Notes on the Top 100 (7/29/2024):

Walcott is too freaky to have ranked lower than this. If you’ve been reading this site for a while, you know I tend to put the extreme risk/upside guys toward the back of the 55 FV tier while they’re in the lower minors. That applies to Walcott, who I think has a better shot to stick at shortstop for while than I did on my last update. His power ceiling is in the Fernando Tatis Jr. area.

There seems to be no doubt that Walcott’s power potential is very high, but there’s no reason to assume he’ll be a major leaguer before his 2027 ETA, and that’s a long time to wait. If you are excited about his potential, sneak in for $1 now, but don’t go beyond that until more progress is made.

Brant Hurter – 24 current auctions

Listed as an option in last week’s Ottoneu Drip, Jake Mailhot wrote:

He throws from a low, three-quarters slot which imparts a ton of horizontal movement to his sinker and sweeper. He also recently developed a changeup which has given him a weapon to use against right-handed batters. If he stays on schedule, he’s got two risky matchups against the Orioles and Royals before an easier outing against the Rays.

Mailhot pointed out that in Hurter’s eight games, he’s come in behind a reliever which complicates how you use him on your roster. However, he did well in that risky matchup against the slumping Orioles, walking one, giving up no hits, and striking out eight. He was awarded the win. On the season he has a 2.56 ERA and if he can get through the Royals lineup with success, what else will you need to see before you are willing to roster the 26-year-old lefty?

Roster Adds

Bryce Eldridge – Add% Change (7 Days) – 22.6%

Ottoneu managers are running to pick up the 19-year-old first baseman after his promotion to AAA. He visited every minor league level at some point in 2024. It seems clear that the Giants, who have mostly platooned the first base position, are fast-tracking Eldridge who, “[a]t 6-foot-7…has plenty of room to build on an already strong frame, and [is] going to have enormous power in the Matt Olson/Adam Dunn zip code one day”. That comes from Eric Longenhagen’s 2024 assessment of the Giant’s prospect pool which ranked Eldridge as third in the org. He went on to write:

There is probably always going to be a heavy dose of strikeouts here (as there are with Olson), but Eldridge’s combination of power and patience is going to make him a potent offensive threat. Whether he ends up playing right field or first base is probably going to be immaterial. He’s quite a ways from the big leagues and there is some hit tool risk here, but Eldridge projects as a middle-of-the-order-force with elite power.

Those on the re-build should take note of the pace at which Eldridge has worked through the minors and may want to see if he can be added for $1 now instead of a higher price early next season.

Kumar Rocker – Add% Change (7 Days) – 16.9%

Rocker impressed in his four-inning debut last week. He gave up a home run, but he struck out seven of the 17 Mariners he faced. Don’t expect Rocker to still be available in your league. If he is, don’t expect him to go for anywhere south of $5, his average (and median) salary in Ottoneu points leagues. It seems very likely that Rocker is being given trial runs with the Rangers, who are out of the playoff race, in hopes that he will join the rotation at the start of next season. Rocker lines up to start against the Blue Jays tomorrow, Thursday, September 19th.

José Tena – Add% Change (7 Days) – 12.9%

Tena was acquired from the Guardians along with INF Rafael Ramirez Jr. and SP Alex Clemmey in a trade for OF Lane Thomas at the deadline. He was called up to the big league Nationals in early August, though he debuted with the Guardians in 2023. In 34 games (129 PAs) with the Nationals, Tena is slashing .293/.326/.407. While his .271 xAVG is significantly lower than his actual, his .472 xSLG is significantly higher than his actual. This is, in part, due to a low HR/FB rate of 10.7% while with the Nats, compared to a league average of 11.6%. It looks from his spray chart that he should have had a few more home runs to his name:

Tena Spray Chart

A few of those doubles and fly-ball outs may have been homers in other parks. Regardless, Tena’s holding onto some great batted ball metrics in his 2024 season with the Nats including a 90.7% Z-Contact% (MLB avg: 85.3%), a 52.1% Hard-Hit% (MLB avg: 38.7% ), and a 10.6% Barrel% (MLB avg: 7.9).  That is all across 129 plate appearances, so it’s not a tiny sample. Tena is still only rostered in roughly 40% of Ottoneu leagues, but may be changing soon.

 

Hot Performers

Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.

Victor Robles – (11.8 P/G)

Robles was on a hot streak before being hit by a pitch last night (9/17). In his last 11 games, he hit five doubles, scored 10 runs, and stole seven bases all the while hitting for a .500 batting average.

Luke Raley – (9.9 P/G)

The Mariners hit train has really begun chugging lately, and Luke Raley has jumped aboard. In his last 47 plate appearances, he has a .317/.404/.732 slash line along with five doubles, four home runs, and two stolen bases. The Mariners have a league-leading 148 wRC+ in the last 14 days.

Joey Cantillo – (8.7 P/IP)

After giving up seven earned runs to the Yankees on August 21st, Cantillo has been rebounding. He appeared in relief against the Royals at the end of August and faced five batters without giving up a hit or a walk and striking out one. Then in his next two starts against the White Sox and Rays, he combined for 16 strikeouts, with only one walk and one earned run.

Edward Cabrera – (8.2 P/IP)

Cabrera has been steadily collecting innings since his return from the IL in early July and in his last two games, he’s only given up four hits across 13 combined innings. His ERA is up to 4.55 on the year, but it sits at 2.82 in the second half.





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