Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – May 11th, 2022

Transcript is available!

1:05

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out!

1:05

Greg: What are your thoughts on Garrett Whitlock ROS?

1:06

Paul Sporer: I’m still a huge fan. Got sunk by the 32-pitch first inning yesterday, but there’s still a lot to like and I hope they commit to him as an SP

1:06

Tony: Are you holding onto Tork in a redraft?

1:08

Paul Sporer: If I can. But in shallow leagues, I’m OK cutting. I do think he’ll have a summer heater, but he isn’t a must-hold at all costs in shallower formats

1:08

Guest: Hey Paul, hope you are well! How come Felix Bautista isn’t the closer in Baltimore? The dude breaks Eno’s Stuff+/Pitching+ model and looks every bit to be an absolute beast if he was given the chance

1:08

Paul Sporer: How nasty is he??? Jorge Lopez is pretty nasty, too, though and maybe they prefer Bautista in the fireman’s role instead?

1:08

Jim Leyland Palmer: Do you think Kyle Lewis will be viable in 10 teamers when he comes back? Different type of players, but more impactful than say, Laurano for that format (5×5)?

1:09

Paul Sporer: Laureano’s speed is probably more valuable between the two. I like Lewis and think he has mixed league viability instantly because of his upside, but I prefer Laureano

1:09

John: Justin Turner and Nelson Cruz. Are we worried about these two?

1:10

Paul Sporer: A bit, yes. I think both are 10-team cuttable. Keep an eye on guys you cut in 10 teamers and don’t be afraid to go back if they heat up, but you don’t always have to hold through the fire

1:10

Guest: Is Barlow or Staumont going to grab the KC closers role? Or will this remain a timeshare?

1:10

Paul Sporer: Timeshare

1:10

Guest: Can M.Lorenzen become an Sp3 or 2? or his he stuck in the 4/5 range

1:10

Paul Sporer: He has the swinging strikes to generate more Ks and if he does, he can definitely jump a level

1:10

Curious: Hope for Durran (OF) to make an impact this year? What’s his upside, if he does get a quick -ish callback?

1:11

Paul Sporer: If they move on from Bradley, yes, but they love JBJ!

1:11

Joe: Is Merrifield droppable in 10 team leagues? He’s been atrocious.

1:11

Paul Sporer: He has been, but I’m holding. Virtually everything under the hood remains intact outside of a sub-.200 BABIP. He does have more flyballs than usual, but that’s fixable. Unless the FB% holds, I think he rebounds so I’ve been holding.

1:12

Cody: Chapman for TOR has been back to his struggles in K’s. Would you stick with him or roll with Bohm or Miranda ROS? OBP league

1:12

Paul Sporer: I’m fine with moving him for either. Still too many Ks which makes him a major all or nothing

1:13

Andre: thoughts on Paul Blackburn? Is he a new pitcher? Drop someone like Sonny Gray for him?

1:14

Paul Sporer: Velo is up, secondaries working well with 5-pt boost in SwStr%, and his walk rate is down to 3%. The ERA will absolutely rise from the 1.74 mark, but I think he can be a 3.60-4.20 ERA kind of guy the rest of the way.

1:14

Zac: Is this Taylor Ward breakout real? or do the Angels go back to platooning OFers

1:17

Paul Sporer: I think he’s a plus hitter. The near 1:1 K:BB ratio likely won’t hold (21 Ks, 19 BB), but there is plenty of wiggle room for those numbers to regree and Ward to remain a strong contributor. They full believe in him, too, batting him 1st regularly (missed the last 2 gms due to injury). When healthy, he is going to play and I think he’s going to be an all-formats contributor.

1:17

Guest: Do you think K Hayes has any power coming?  The quality seems to be there it’s just the launch angle is terrible.

1:17

Paul Sporer: Eventually, but I’m not really betting on it this year

1:17

Guest: 15 team, redraft standard categories. Lamonte Wade or Ozuna ? Thanks

1:18

Paul Sporer: I’d lean Wade.

1:18

Fair Weather Fan: Should I drop Meadows for Marsh despite Marsh’s lineup position/platoon risk?  Will the Tigers score more runs when it warms up in Detroit?  Hard to ignore the Angels have scored twice as many runs. I want some shares in that offense.

1:20

Paul Sporer: I understand wanting Marsh, but I don’t think I’d cut Meadows. His power will come and he’s been great outside of that. It might be wishful thinking as a Tigers fan, but this offense feels like it has to regress to the mean somewhat. Candy and Schoop seem to be heating up. Meadows, Baez, Grossman. They shouldn’t be this bad!

1:20

Daily Changes: Who should I start in LF: Schwarber vs Gilbert in SEA or Lowe vs Ohtani in LA … ? ! ? !

1:20

Paul Sporer: Schwarber

1:21

Larry: Are you buying anything into the hot start for Rowdy Tellez? Could he be a 1B starter in a 12-team league?

1:21

Paul Sporer: I am. He is a breakout pick of mine this year so I’m fully dialed in on him. I don’t even think he really needs to be platooned, either

1:21

Guest: re: Felix Bautista – Eno’s Stuff+ model has him as #1 in Stuff+ at a 147 (two ahead of ‘Stache Strider at 145). He has 11 appearances and 187 pitches thus far. You may be right about the fireman role. He’s perfect for that as well it seems. Here he is striking out Wander with a nasty changeup: https://www.mlb.com/orioles/video/felix-bautista-k-s-wander-franco

1:25

Paul Sporer: Baltimore pitching is coming, y’all. This isn’t the Arrieta/Matusz/Tillman era or even the Bundy/Harvey/Scott era. Bradish and Wells have some real juice and Zimmermann can be a solid backend arm. Bautista looks sick. Lopez is much better with 98+ mph sinkers. It’s a slow drip, but it’s comin’! Grayson Rodriguez & DL Hall are their big prospects on the horizon, too.

1:25

Pablo: Do you think NFBC should/will move to OBP instead of AVG? It sucks seeing my P get dinged for walks (WHIP) but hitters get no credit for them.

1:27

Paul Sporer: I hear ya, but I doubt it. OBP funnels back toward the power profile that is already so prevalent in fantasy w/HR/RBI/R (and even AVG as a HR is of course a hit). AVG helps give a different player class fantasy value. The BB would add a dynamic to some players, but not really any don’t already hold value elsewhere. I don’t mind OBP leagues, but I’m not as strident about them these days.

1:27

Bruce on the Loose: Rank Strider, Rasmussen, Meyer for ros H2H

1:27

Paul Sporer: I gotta go Ras, Strider, Meyer. Until Meyer is up, it’s hard to really project him over anyone already in the league because we just never know with prospects.

1:28

CT: Hey Paul, thanks for the chat. Hoping to get your opinion on something in my 12tm 6×6 roto… Last week I swung two trades that in total saw me send C. Correa, J. Berrios, and M. Semien away for J. Altuve, C. Bassitt, and W. Adames. How’d I do?

1:30

Paul Sporer: I think it’s actually a solid sell low, buy high. Usually we aim to do the opposite, but I don’t think you overbought on anything here. I think Semien will rebound into a decent enough season, espec. if he stays healthy, but I don’t see anything close to last year. I had Adames over Correa to start the year so I like that and Bassitt & Berrios are pretty close for me.

1:31

Guest: Is Owen Miller anything or did he just have a crazy first 2 weeks?

1:32

Paul Sporer: I think he can hit .260 with like 10 more HRs rest of way.

1:32

Guest: I have Riley Greene and Oneiil Cruz for $2 in a keeper league with only 1 NA spot.  Was hoping Cruz would be up to move Greene into that spot but right now I’m burning a spot.  Should I hold out for now or move on from one?

1:33

Paul Sporer: Hold until you can’t, but don’t let it impact the starting team

1:33

Lorenzo: Will we see the 2021 version of AJ Pollock at some point soon or is he best left on the wire and not keepable as a bench bat?

1:35

Paul Sporer: Living in the air too much right so he’s earning some of the .222 BABIP. Not even getting paid off on it, either with just a 5% HR/FB rate. He will be viable again at some point in the 10s and 12s where’s on the wire, but do you want pickup and wait or just watchlist and wait?

1:35

Guest: should i try to hold on to Kyle Hendricks or Nick Pivetta in a 15tm roto?

1:35

Paul Sporer: Hendricks. Both will be similarly maddening, though

1:36

Steven: do you roster hybrid closers like Duran and Helsley? no doubting their talent but are they really worth a roster spot if they pitch 1-2x week? good for ratios but tough for counting saves or holds

1:38

Paul Sporer: Depends on league and team makeup. I’m playing primarily 15-tm mixers and I think they are definitely viable there. If you aren’t chasing saves and have 2 lockdown guys, you can use them where you would use a 3rd RP in 10s and 12s to supplement the ratios and Ks

1:38

Steven: re: semien from last week…is your level of concern rising? would it be worth trying to move him for ?something palatable?

1:38

Paul Sporer: You can. I just think it’s gonna be a meh season, but still pretty useful if he plays 150+

1:38

#notapril: ten Team, 1 C league, points league, deep bench. Stash Rutschman if I have Grandal as my catcher?

1:39

Paul Sporer: You cannn, but how does it play out? Do you cut Grandal? Do you have to trade him? Is trading done regularly in your league? You can’t really start both. I’d probably only want to hold for a C I would definitely cut in favor of Adley and that’s not Grandal for me. I think he’s going to be fine

1:40

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

1:40

Paul Sporer: True.

1:40

Steven: re: tellez- do you see him outperforming nelson cruz ros? we’ve seen glimpses from rowdy like this in the past. but also haven’t seen the duds nellie has put up thus far

1:40

Paul Sporer: If they just commit to playing him, I think he does outperform Cruz ROS

1:41

Steven: era estimators putting ranger suarez ~4+ era. do you envision him as more of a 3.5 guy ros? are you starting him this weekend vs LAD?

1:41

Paul Sporer: That was a great rebound outing from Suarez. I’m sitting him v. LAD, but another gem would give me a lot of confidence that he’s in full form

1:41

bob: I know there’s a paucity of catchers who can hit.  But I thought that if I used Narvaez against righties paired w Alejandro Kirk, I’d at least get by.  They’re killing me in my 12 team points league.  Time to cut bait?

1:42

Paul Sporer: Who are you picking up? For a Jonah Heim? Sure. But there just might not be much to grab in their stead.

1:42

lilSTUDS: If/when Meyer gets the call, you like him over Kirby?

1:42

Paul Sporer: I don’t have too much of a split between if they’re both in the majors

1:43

The Don: Drop donaldson for suarez at this point?  Don doing absolutely nothing.

1:43

Paul Sporer: Yeah, you can

1:43

Kevin: drop Franmil for Laureano in a deep 12-team OPS league? Franmil’s BB/K is terrifying right now

1:45

Paul Sporer: You can def do that, especially if you need SBs, but I do wonder if Franmil might be comin out of it a bit. Just finish a 6-gm hit streak w/4 multi-hit efforts. Unfortunately went 0-8 w/5 punchies in the 2 gms since, but I’m keeping tabs on him. But yeah, Laureano for him is totally fine

1:45

#notapril: Some fool just dropped T. ONeil in my ten teamer, but I can’t see any place for him in my lineup over Stanton/Yelich/Alvarez… methinks I need a deeper league

1:46

Paul Sporer: Maybe that person wasn’t such a fool, eh? 🙂 Yeah it’s a league depth situation. And if you prefer a deeper league, that’s cool. Depth doesn’t determine the quality, though. 10s and shallower present their own challenges. Yes the waiver wire if ripe, but it’s almost TOO ripe and you have to stumble on the guys who become stars or are at least stars for weeks at a time because the level needed to sustain a lineup spot in a shallow lg is so much higher.

1:46

Buying low: Is Lourdes Gurriel off to another slow start and should I pick him up now that his owner has grown impatient?  Choosing between two of McNeil, Gurriel, J. Pena or Gallo.

1:47

Paul Sporer: I’d favor Peña, but Gurriel is 2nd

1:47

Adam: OBP league, Pham vs. Winker? I have solid steals on my roster, but leaning Pham because of the ballpark

1:47

Paul Sporer: That is precisely why I’d lean Pham, too!

1:48

Guest: Worth holding Voit in 12 team roto?

1:48

Paul Sporer: You can. Like Tork, keep him watchlisted as he will be 12-team viable at some pt this yr, but he isn’t now and I understand churning. He was a late enough pick to be part of the churn

1:49

Steve: Is Yelich back? The fundamentals look good.

1:49

Steven: will the real yelich stand up? who is this version we are seeing?!

1:50

Paul Sporer: I’d imagine it’s all tied to healthy. The better he feels, the better he plays!

1:50

Paul Sporer: I believe in healthy Yelich as a plus to plus-plus bat.

1:50

Kalines Ghost: Is the dream already over for K Wright?

1:50

Paul Sporer: Because of one bad start? Tough crowd.

1:50

John: bader or pham in 12 team mixed roto?

1:51

Paul Sporer: I lean Bader. He’s a younger, healthier Pham

1:51

Philly: In a vacuum, Megill or Ty France? Or are they about equal?

1:53

Paul Sporer: I think they are about equal to me, yes.

1:54

Armadillofury: Ranger Suarez got a late start to spring training due to visa issues so I’m willing to buy he might be coming around to his true self

1:54

Paul Sporer: Yeah I don’t want to give up on him

1:54

Nails: Would you burn #1 waiver priority in AL only on Josh Naylor? someone dropped him right before Tuesday’s first pitch

1:54

Paul Sporer: I would indeed, yes

1:54

Kalines Ghost: re Wright, start before that may have been “Quality” but 9 hits and only 3 Ks suggest it was more Luck Dragon-y

1:57

Paul Sporer: Yeah I dunno, it was at a 21-10 tm and he steadied pretty well after a rough 1st. I think this is just what regression looks like. I know none of us expected 1.74 ERA, so the return includes some meh or outright stinky starts like yesterday

1:57

Boris: Give up on Matz?  Can pickup Montgomery, Blackburn, Winder

1:57

Paul Sporer: Not giving up on Matz overall, but for any of those 3, it’s fine to me

1:57

Guest: Need to drop one bench bat j. Miranda, or Pham

1:57

Paul Sporer: I’d drop Miranda between ’em

1:57

Barry: Is Dany Jimenez the closer now?

1:58

Paul Sporer: At least partially. Will be a lot of eyes on their next SV opp. This is why I wasn’t dropping Jimenez even upon Trivino’s return. I figured Trivino wouldn’t lose his job to injury, but he absolutely can to underperformance

1:58

Somewhere Warm: How many years will the “Aaron Nola is unlucky” narrative continue to be a thing? At some point, isn’t he just his surface stats?

1:59

Paul Sporer: They have historically bad defenses year in, year out, why ignore that aspect?

2:00

G Money: In a points league, Giolito for Story, what side do you want?

2:00

Paul Sporer: I lean Gio

2:00

Chone of the Dead: Hey Paul, loving Boxcore Bits this year, thanks as always for the chat. 10-team h2h points, -1 for Ks. How would you rank Rowdy Tellez, Jared Walsh, and Josh Naylor at the 1b position?

2:00

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much. Today’s out here shortly! I’d go Naylor, Tellez, Walsh – I like all 3, too

2:01

Jon: Devers for Woodruff?  Fair/close enough?  Thoughts?

2:01

Paul Sporer: Yes, totally fair. Under the hood looks pretty good for Woodruff to me. I don’t see anything worth majorly worrying about. He has had 3 gems and 3 duds. The 3 duds hold more weight on his ratios and make him look worse than he’s been. I’m a full buy on him

2:01

Nick: What do you think of Kirby?

2:02

Paul Sporer: Loved his debut. Can’t wait to see him in Citi v. the Mets. His FAAB prices this weekend will be nuts if he pops off again!

2:02

Guest: H2H OBP keeper.. my Nola/Tellez/Detmers for his Webb/Franmil/Luzardo

2:02

Paul Sporer: That’s pretty fair. I don’t have a strong lean, but would nudge toward Webb side

2:02

Minnesotan: When Max Muncy is in the batters box is he looking to draw a walk or is he looking to drive the ball? I drafted him for the later but almost always seeing the former.

2:04

Paul Sporer: Was discussing this on a recent pod and definitely think there is a level of passivity there that is driving that BB rate sky-high. I’m left wondering if the elbow is ailing and he’s just trying to grind it out best he can. I don’t KNOW, btw, this is pure speculation, but I see similar passivity in search of a walk and it’s hard not to link it to the elbow

2:04

Dungeon Master: where are you at on Kyle Bradish? top 50 arm ROS possibly?

2:07

Paul Sporer: Maaaaybe if the Ks hold after last night’s surge. I don’t think he’ll quite be that high on my next update, but I’m definitely keyed in on him. Alex Fast put him on my radar in his first start w/a video of his 1st MLB K. I thought based on the nastiness of that K, that he would’ve ended up w/like 5-6 Ks in his opener. I was stunned to learn it was just 2 when I checked boxscores that night and then 3 in his next outing. But his MiLB SwStr rates were strong and we finally saw it on display last night. In today’s landscape, we have to act quickly on standout starts like that and I’m inclined to go for someone like this, espec. w/a 2-step at home next week

2:07

Dan: Who do you like more the rest of the year? Joe Ryan or Kirby?

2:08

Paul Sporer: I’m sticking with Ryan. 2 weird gms w/the big BB output. I didn’t get to see yesterday’s, but it’s weird how he just loses it for a random gm here and there and then walks no one in the other outings. No shame in getting ripped by HOU, either.

2:08

Big Joey: Trade France and Kershaw for Freeman?

2:08

Paul Sporer: I’m totally cool with that

2:08

Joe: Drop Kelenic for Laureano?  Drop Kelenic for anyone?

2:09

Paul Sporer: Yes and yes. If you’re in a league with Laureano on the wire, Kelenic should be, too (and I don’t say that as any sort of diss, just saying it makes me think it’s a 10 or 12 which is where Kelenic can definitely be cut. I’m not sure I’d even balk at a 15-tm cut)

2:09

Christian: How worried are you about Kelenic long term?

2:10

Paul Sporer: It’s concerning. Guys don’t usually fix K rates like this (30% in 472 PA). It has changed my outlook on him for sure. Thought he was more of a pure hitter coming up.

2:10

Big Joey: Are France, Nestor Cortes and Connor Joe all sell-highs or do you like them for ROS?

2:11

Paul Sporer: I was drafting all 3 so at the risk of some confirmation bias, I’m inclined to hold. Now if you can trade to improve the team, then by all means. But I don’t think any of them needed to be traded in fear of the bottom dropping out. The skills of all 3 are bankable enough to sustain mixed league viability

2:12

Guest: Logan Webb or Julio Urias for Austin Riley?

2:12

Paul Sporer: It’s fair for either. I’d prefer to keep Webb

2:12

Guest: Kikuchi ready to go a roll?

2:12

Paul Sporer: It seems like it and I suggest exactly that in today’s Boxscore Bits

2:13

Paul Sporer: …speaking of which. I need to go finish that and get it posted for y’all.

2:13

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch tomorrow morning (9:30am CT) and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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