Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 6th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Helloooooo everyone, how’s it going?

Mike: 12 team roto league with keepers based on round drafted and yearly escalator.

Mike: would you draft and if so where? Shane Mac & Baz  12 team roto keeper league based on draft position and annual escalators for each year kept.

Paul Sporer: Do you have unlimited IL slots?

Rabbit ball: Do your feelings on rabbits or other one cat players change at all in a h2h context vs roto?

Paul Sporer: Not really, but I guess I can maybe use them more pointedly in H2H and perhaps work around their flaws a bit more maybe? Although I would be so angry to bench a Ruiz type the day he rips off 4 SBs. I just don’t like the player type, doesn’t fit my managing style

MochiBetts: Over/Under 90.5% for HoF votes for Skubal’s first year of eligibility?  Please talk me down from my overhype… or don’t

Paul Sporer: LOOOOL way over

Guest: Jeff didn’t rank Yamamoto or Imanaga in his SP rankings – was that intentional?

Paul Sporer: Probably a mistake, but best to ask him

Ice: Does Manzardo break camp with Cleveland?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so. I’ve been operating as though he won’t even since they Rule 5’s Deyvison De Los Santos.

Ice: Who are some AL pitching prospects who could come up quickly and make an impact like Bibee or the Miller’s did last year?

Paul Sporer: These questions are a little more broad than I like, I prefer if you have some specific players you’d like to discuss. That said, I can direct you to my re-draft piece here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/fantasy-update-2024-re-draft-and-dynasty…

Chip: News is that Colton Cowser has an inside track on an OD job. What’s your fantasy take on him? Rosterable?

Paul Sporer: Very much so. I’ve been hoping Kjerstad could trump him, but as you say, it’s been reported that Cowser has the inside track so I’m happy to take him. I basically love both and whoever wins the job, I’ll gladly roster. This Baltimore prospect factory is really starting to pay dividends. We’ll see a bunch more this year, too, with Cowser possibly being the first to make a major impact w/the Mullins injury

Matt W.: Does it make sense for Tampa just take the PR hit and Sign Bauer? Their pitching seems very thin.

Paul Sporer: I doubt they do that, tbh

Dodging Lions (a Dodgers jam band): I can only keep one, so should I keep Bryce Miller or Emmet Sheehan this year? Thanks.

Paul Sporer: Miller for me

Ice: Thoughts on Eloy this year? He was healthy(ish) last year but the power was down.

Paul Sporer: I’ve had a hard time quitting him these last few years and I’m still reluctant to do so bc I know the second I do, he’ll pop off! He is post pick 200 so not super expensive but is UT only which scares some off. He’s an option, but no longer a target. The last couple years, he was an explicit target of mine

Don Dringus: Is Soto head and shoulders above anyone else in an AL only OBP league?

Paul Sporer: He is indeed, yes. Especially bc I think he could absolutely explode in Yankee Stadium, too

Anonymous: Sad I never got to spend a 2nd round pick on Sixto Sanchez.

Paul Sporer: Are you referencing this? lol

https://twitter.com/sporer/status/1303697022491529217

Paul Sporer: And technically, you still CAN. you’re not barred from taking him in the 2nd

Brennan Boesch: In general, how would you approach change in a Net Save league compared to regular Saves? Put more stock in the top options?

Paul Sporer: I already put a good bit of stock in the top options. I’m firmly in the pay-for-saves camp, so yeah I would just keep doing that in a Net Saves setup

Insert Witty Name Here: Does anyone’s Velo gains worry you that injury is imminent? I think I saw Skubal and/or Regans have added a few ticks and hit the 100 mark, how many pitchers have sustained that?

Paul Sporer: Definitely a valid concern. I mean look at deGrom when he started throwing 100 on average w/his fastball, he hasn’t stayed healthy for shit. It can be a double edged sword.

Guest: Feels like Jo Adell is made some progress last year with K and BB rate in AAA last year, but it didn’t come close to translating at the ML level.  There is virtually zero buzz this year around him, but I have heard people saying good things about work ethic and improved defense.  As an Adell owner in my AL only, can you give me any hope here?

Paul Sporer: I mean he’s still just 25!! If you blind ask most ppl, they’ll prob say 28-29 given how long he’s been in consciousness so it’s not impossible to see him still putting some things together. Age and pedigree are the best I can really do with Adell bc he just hasn’t looked good in the majors, but those factors are enough to stay bought in for AL Only IMO

Günter’s better half: Name one or two hitters post 100 apd that you expect full breakout to top 20

Paul Sporer: I’ve got way more than that coming with our Sleeper articles coming this week (Jeff’s tomorrow, mine Friday I believe). I’ll have the following categories in mine:

Top 100 Bargains
Top 100 Bargains
Sleepers from 101-200
Sleepers from 101-200
Sleepers from 201-300
Sleepers from 201-300
Sleepers from 301+
Sleepers from 301+
Sleepers from 301+
Sleepers from 301+
Sleeper for AVG
Sleeper for R
Sleeper for HR
Sleeper for RBI
Sleeper for SB

Paul Sporer: but I’ll give you a name right now, too….

Paul Sporer: Evan Carter! I’m such a sucker for young bats with great plate skills. Let alone the speed and power as part of an elite lineup. His power isn’t massive but enough to be a fantasy force. Plus, I think with those plate skills, he can improve vL and not end up platooning

Trader Bob: Trying to find a 3B eligible guy for the end of my bench and I’m mostly looking at bench players. I liked Willi Castro but feel he’s behind Farmer and Margot now for pt; I liked Ezequiel Duran but Jung and Seager are healing. Is Chris Taylor over the hill? Perdomo has pt for now but not counting stats? Will Triolo get a bid?

Paul Sporer: I’d stick with Castro. He’s gonna bounce around all over the place. I don’t think he’s behind Margot. Margot is Buxton insurance. Yes Jung/Seager are healing (and I’m a fan of both), but Duran is viable here, too. Neither are currently healthy and no one (except Semien) plays 162 these days anyway so there’ll be some chances for Duran. I’m a sucker for Perdomo, too. I can’t make a great fantasy case, but his PT is locked and he’s young enough to improve

Steve: Please rank for this season: Yamamota, P. Lopez, Kirby

Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-2024-fantasy-rankings/

Dylan Stein: Should Yelich or Teoscar be starting on my team

Paul Sporer: Yelich for me

Dylan Stein: Do you think Jackson Holliday will somewhat play everyday

Paul Sporer: When up, yes. They aren’t gonna have him sitting a bunch in the majors. Better to play daily in Triple-A than do that

Matt: In your top SP rankings, you said you were excited about Kutter Crawford as you dug in more. What held you back from ranking him higher?

Paul Sporer: He’s moving up next update. Justin and I discussed him further on the pod and then I did a guest spot with Tim Kanak where I discussed him EVEN more and I just realized he needs a nice jump in my rankings. That update’ll be out this week.

MochiBetts: Perhaps not the appropriate forum but with the season starting soon, do you think the twitch streams with OOTP/MLBTS be a little more frequent?  I have been jonesing to hear you discuss what you want to do about dinner and then ultimately decide on Torchy’s for the 4th time this week.

Paul Sporer: Perfect forum for such a question and lol at the Torchy’s answer. Yes, streams will be back more frequently starting in April. Between FG and my OOTP, i’m just jam packed in March so not as much free time for streams. Plenty coming for April and beyond, though

Ed: Hii Paul!  I’m playing in a 4×4 league for the first time this year (no K’s and no runs).  Any advice on how or if to adjust guys’ rankings?  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Ooh 4×4, it’s been quite some time since I was in. Gotta focus a lot more on ratios for pitchers which can be tough since they’re volatile. As such, I’d give more credence to WHIP than ERA as it seems more skill-based. Also, Ws get more attention so I’ll downgrade my favorite SPs from bad teams (which I have a weakness for as Justin & I discussed on yesterday’s pod episode). For hitters, not tooo much changes. I’m more inclined to go for a rabbit base stealer since it’s 1 of 4 cats instead of 1 of 5

How I Mets Your Mother: Tylor Megill is looking like a rosterable SP so far, am I looking too deep in the pond again?

Paul Sporer: I’m still a fan. I can’t get that initial strong run out of my mind so I’ve held a spot for him and always kept tabs to see if he can improve. Rosterable in 15s for sure. Fringy in 12s, but at least watchlist worthy

Don Dringus: Thoughts on Kiriloff finally putting a solid campaign together?

Paul Sporer: Has he upgraded his paper wrists? It allllll comes down to health for him with me

Billy Bigshot: Which Top 10 SPs worry you the most i.e. greatest likelihood of being a bust?

Paul Sporer: Gausman and Gallen as evidenced by their pending downgrades in the next SP ranking update

Don Dringus: Any long term concerns about Baz given his delay? Or is TB just trying to avoid a shut down

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m not drafting him this year

KC Pain: Think we will get to a point where we throw 110 and then in the bullpen they have Tim Dad Bod come out and throw 65-70mph to throw off hitters for an inning?

Paul Sporer: LOLOLOL not quite sure we see that, but that’d be amazing. Basically go from Aroldis to Kyle Hendricks or even a position player

Bob: what are your thoughts on Gausman? Looks like it may just be a start or two delay in season. Still worth a lofty price. My main league is a keeper league and he may be the best available to me in a trade that won’t be too costly.

Paul Sporer: I’m out at full health so definitely pushing away more now

daro: But would you draft Baz if I can keep him for 1$ and can keep up to 25 players?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I should’ve specified… out in NFBC universe where it’s 7 reserves and no IL spots

Paul Sporer: Needs at least 5 IL spots to go for him or something like your setup where he’s dirt cheap and we’re looking beyond ’24

Paul Sporer: Glad you asked for the clarification… my bad on that

R: Thoughts on the chances of Crews and/or Wood making the opening day roster after the Rosario signing?

Paul Sporer: I never saw either of them having much of a shot to break camp, but I’m still bullish on both for the summer and beyond

Dylan Stein: Will Kyle Bradish have a “Sophmore Slump” even though it isn’t technically his 2nd year

Paul Sporer: Well, he could miss the whole year due to health right now. So he’s a complete wildcard at this juncture

Don Dringus: Any SP prospects you like to come up this year and have an impact in a deep league?

Paul Sporer: I got you: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/fantasy-update-2024-re-draft-and-dynasty…

Why not Zoidberg?: Thoughts on Dustin May this year? I’ve been targeting him a fair bit even in shallow leagues

Paul Sporer: Ehhh, I’m not really into him for this year. Isn’t he due back 2nd half?

Mugghead: Would you keep EDC, Jazz, or Burger over any of Lindor, Bregman, Adolis, or Yelich in a H2H Points League? Thanks for the time.

Paul Sporer: While I have expressed skepticism on EDLC this year at his exorbitant price, I think I’d go for him over Adolis. Worth noting that I’ve been pretty skeptical on Adolis and keep eating shit on that so while I have toned down my negativity on him, I still think I’d rather take the volatile youngster over the volatile oldhead (old-ish, at least)

Paul Sporer: I’ve been trying to make heads or tails of that myself, thinking it might be a new manager just making every youngster “earn” their spot or if it’s legit and they just don’t trust him. I’m still drafting Alzolay as the guy if I mess with the Cubs pen, but for now I’ve been pivoting elsewhere. I also like to pay for saves so I usually have a closer if not 2 locked up before Alzolay comes up

KeepyUppy: Help! Who is my last keeper? Gerrit at $40 or one of the Jacksons at $11? (260 budg)

Paul Sporer: Maaaannnn that is tough. I need a lot more info. Who else ya keepin? What’s your inflation rate? Which Jacksons? Chourio, Holliday, Merrill? ….. or Jobe??

Phil: Points league Who would you take. Wheeler , Burnes or Yamamoto? Thanks

Paul Sporer: Burnesy for me!

Paul Sporer: lol my dumbass answered a question without posting the Q… let’s try that again

KC Pain: Are the Cubs really going to have a committee vs letting Alzolay have a go?  I cant tell if ST talk or they serious.

Paul Sporer: I’ve been trying to make heads or tails of that myself, thinking it might be a new manager just making every youngster “earn” their spot or if it’s legit and they just don’t trust him. I’m still drafting Alzolay as the guy if I mess with the Cubs pen, but for now I’ve been pivoting elsewhere. I also like to pay for saves so I usually have a closer if not 2 locked up before Alzolay comes up

Paul Sporer: There we go

Darin: Who do you like better long term and this year between kutter Crawford vs Christopher Sanchez

Paul Sporer: Oooh really challenging me there as I like both. While I did say earlier that Kutter is headed upward in the next SP ranking update, it’s still Sanchez by a little for me

John: Why is Ozuna’s ADP so low (~130)?

Paul Sporer: Is that low? He was excellent last year, but we can’t juuust go off last year. He’s still a 33-year old UT only guy who was pretty dreadful in 2021-22. I’d say 130 is perfectly fine and maybe even a touch higher than I’m super comfortable with myself, but I don’t hate it if he’s your guy

KeepyUppy: So many Jacksons. It’s 10% a year. Chouiro, Holliday.I have (so far) Grayson, GKirby, Soto all under 20.

Paul Sporer: Dang, that info helps but doesn’t make the decision easier, I’ll say that! Frick it, I think I’m going with a Jackson. Gimme Chourio!

Matt: Do you view Glasnow and Skubal as a similar injury risk? Have you drafted either yet?

Paul Sporer: I have a bit more concern about Glasnow, but not enough to stay away from him and gravitate much more toward Skubal. I’ll take either and I have 1 Skubal share so far. Allllll pitchers have extreme risky, even the “safest” one you can think bc every pitcher is 1 pitch away. That doesn’t mean guys like Glas and Skubes don’t have more risk, but I’ll take the talent and go from there. They’re both UBER talented, so both are firmly on my board in any and all formats

KeepyUppy: Thanks for your opinion! Sincerely appreciated dude!

Paul Sporer: No prob!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Does Wednesday March 20th work for the marathon chat? Leave a comment on the post if so. I imagine March 23/24 is gonna be the massive draft weekend. OOTP will be released, all the big preseason FG articles will be out so I’ll have time to go multiple hours so stay tuned for that. In the meantime, look for updates on my C & SP rankings this week plus the Sleeper/Breakout (terminology doesn’t really matter, we each explain what we mean in the pieces) articles from both Jeff Zimmerman and myself as well as 2 more Sleeper & the Bust pods! Take care, everyone!!

Elly: It’s looking like Elly is not going to start the year in AAA. Do you agree with Justin that he’s going to spend some time there this year? Just want this on the record so we can revisit later…

Paul Sporer: (I don’t think Justin says it’s guaranteed unless he said it in a forum where I missed it, but rather he has said he could get sent out if he flops which I totally understand. I doubt he hits AAA, but if he looks like Aug/Sept Elly, it’s not impossible)

Paul Sporer: Ok bye for real!