Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 12th, 2025

Paul Sporer: Welcome, thanks for coming out! I’ve got an SP rankings update coming out later today so we’ll probably be on a tight hour, let’s dive right in!

Flippy: Josh Lowe – Top 25 OF or Top 15 OF by end of the year?

Paul Sporer: Very comfortable w/the top 25 but can def see a Top 15 if he really thrives in that new home park as many of us believe he can. I’m in on the buyback!

hurt people hurt people: Favorite IL stash dart throw (in an AL league with unlimited IL)?
Bradish? Bieber? Christian Javier? Ha-Seong Kim 김하성? Pablo Sandoval? David Fry? Or something else?
(Kutter/Neto/Meadows/Grayson back too soon to expect a discount)

Paul Sporer: Probably going for Kim there. Those pitchers are too far out with 2nd half returns. And I know you meant Patrick Sandoval, but Pablo is a funny typo!

Ted: Does Verlander have 1 more good season left? He blew Lawrence Butler away a couple times yesterday at 96

Paul Sporer: I have some confidence that he can be a solid deep lg asset. Part of that is likely my undying love for him as my favorite pitcher ever, but I love the park and the velo is still there… if he can hold up for 140 IP, there’s some juice

Guest: 13 team 5×5 roto, already have Jose Ramirez and Jackson Chourio. 3 OF league with 2 DH. Rank these player in order of how you would pick them please.
Yordan Alvarez

Paul Sporer: I think you got cut off here, feel free to run it back

BD: 13 team 5×5 roto league with 3OF and 2 DH slots (can put anyone there). Already have Jose Ramirez and Jackson Chourio. Please rank these players in order of how you would pick them. Yordan Alvarez, Vlad, Harper, Jazz (2b eligible), Duran, Skubal, Turner. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Ope, found it! Vlad, Skubal, Alvarez, Duran, Harper, Turner, Jazz for me

Joe: Are you in or out on the Soroka Spring Training hype?

Paul Sporer: IN! As you will said in the aforementioned SP rankings update coming out this afternoon.

hurt people hurt people: Pablo Sandoval is coming back! Best shape of his life.

Paul Sporer: I’m here for it! Let’s get him back behind the dish!!!

IL stasher: Anyone on your radar past let’s say, pick 150, who will start the season on the IL? Eury on your radar at all for example?

Paul Sporer: Playing mostly in the NFBC universe (no IL), I don’t stay SUPER in tune w/this player class bc we only get 7 reserves and I’m just not holding someone for more than a week or three as a stash. Eury Perez is intriguing at a discount if you can stash on IL comfortably. And by comfortably I mean having more than 2-3 ILs. With limited ILs, I’m still not super keen on long-term stashes bc you’ll get injuries quickly in-season and be left having to make tough decisions right away

Baseball Fan Forever: What would be the best option for the New York Yankees with the loss of Gerrit Cole for the rest of the season? Trade for a good pitcher or try to sign free agents. There are several pitchers left who could be in good shape. What would you recommend?

Paul Sporer: I meeeaaaann, the shoot the moon strategy is to get Sandy, but he’s far from a guarantee coming off injury himself. They are unlikely to make any sort of grand trade so I wonder if they’ve rung up the likes Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. Neither is going to SAVE the season, but they are capable MLBers who can soak up some innings while they figure out something a bit more long-term

Odd rules: What are your thoughts on Matt Shaw? I’m in a 16-team league where rookies with zero MLB time are ineligible to be drafted or picked up until they gain that MLB time — so Jobe, Crews are eligible, Sasaki, Shaw are not, and yes, kinda random. With the #2 waiver spot, chances are I’m not getting Sasaki. Also, if Shaw plays in the first Japan series game but Sasaki doesn’t go until the 2nd, Shaw will be available one day earlier, and I’d have to miss out on even having a shot at Sasaki entirely if I take Shaw. Is Shaw worth it the waiver and roster spot? Or hold out for something better?

Paul Sporer: I do think he’s worth the shot. Biiig time prospect surging up the board after a 21 HR/31 SB season last yr and now headed to Japan w/the team which is a great sign for his chances to make the club for true Opening Day, too. I’m not anti-Roki, but I’m not sure Shaw isn’t the better option even if you had a choice of both. A power-speed hitter should be able to deliver some value immediately even if his AVG takes some time to come along. And then there’s always the perfect world outcome where’s a Rookie of the Year candidate as everything comes together immediately, but I’d take 12/17/.250, too!

Joe: If Max Scherzer’s sore thumb continues to bother him, do you think he just cuts it off?

Paul Sporer: Knowing Max, he’d bite it off

clydethedog: do we buy Reds at cost due to the Terry Francona effect?

Paul Sporer: Park and Terry, yes. I’m still all in on Reds hitters. They didn’t quite come through as a whole last yr, but I’m undeterred. McLain, CES, Lux, Friedl, Fraley, T Step… littered across my rosters! Elly rules, too, but obv you need a top 3-4 pick to get him

Vader: Am I crazy to think Shaw is starting fantasy 3B this year due to the steals!?

Paul Sporer: Not at all! As you can see from the last Shaw Q I answered, I’m a fan!

Vader: I’m I also crazy to think Edwards Mia will be a top 6 SS for the steals?!

Paul Sporer: He’ll need a ton of SBs to hit top 6, but it’s not impossible if the good AVG holds, too. I do worry he could have like a combined 25 R/RBI in that garbage lineup, though, loool

Chip: Are you dropping Gunnar in your ranks, or holding firm on the news that he’s resuming baseball activities?

Paul Sporer: If I’d have had any drafts in these last few days, I’d have taken the late-1st round discount. So I dropped him a couple spots, but nothing crazy

Bruce: Hey Paul, Thanks for these!
12 Tm, 5×5 w OBP, can keep 6 dudes for as long as you want at no penalty/cost.  In this kind of a league how early is too early to pull trigger on Roman Anthony?

Paul Sporer: Reallyyyyy depends if we have confirmation of him making the roster by the time you draft. The OBP aspect definitely helps Anthony specifically, but if we still don’t know if he’s on the team, I’m prob not jumping before somewhere in the 20s rounds

Joe: What do you think of the Nashville Stars potential expansion team getting an official hat already? You like the look?

Paul Sporer: Oh woooow, I hadn’t seen it. Just checked it out and really dig it!! I think I’m gonna scoop one — https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/1j9qioh/nashville_stars_log…

Billy Jo Robidoux: Who is your pick to come out of relative nowhere and contend for the AL Cy Young Award?  Thinking of a Bryan Woo-type that puts it all together for one season (a la Robbie Ray).

Paul Sporer: If I can be a little bit of a homer and prisoner of the moment since he just finished his outing, I’ll say Casey Mize! Former #1 overall pick is absolutely dealing in spring and has locked in a rotation spot. He had a 36% K rate so far and added 4 more Ks in 3 IP today. He did walk 3 as well, but worked around it. Again, my Tigers fandom is shining through here, but I don’t think I’m just gassing my own team here!

Darren: In a 12 team, keep 4 forever league with OBP and QS. Options are Acuña, J Ramirez, K Marte, T Turner, Langford, Wood, and Gilbert. How would you weigh positions / future value in this decision? Best team this year is likely Ramirez, Acuna, Marte, Gilbert.  But long term, hard to drop Langford and Wood in a keep forever league, so i am leaning Acuna, Ramirez, Langford, Wood. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I think you’ve landed on the four I’d go with, balancing now with future. The closest thing you’re keeping to a true prospect is Wood and he’s already got a half season under his belt! Marte and Turner rule, but w/the keep forever, they get run out by Lang and Wood for me

3B or not 3B, that is the question: Strategy Q: I only get 4 keepers in my AL Only. Is it silly for two of them to be Caminero and Royce Lewis (both very cheap) when there are weaker positions than 3B?

Paul Sporer: Do you have a CI or is one going to UT? I’m not necessarily out if you have to use your UT spot, just curious….

HAZE: Acuna HR/SB in 2025 and 2026?

Paul Sporer: I’ll say something like 22/30 this yr and then if he stays fully healthy this year, he’ll be back up around 30/45. I know there are concerns about him saying he’ll steal less, but that still leaves a lottta room from the 73 he had in 2023

AJG: I am keeping Skubal in the fourth round. Any issue with waiting until my sixth seventh round to draft my second starter (thinking Bibee, Ryan, Ober, or Schwellenbach), and then load up in rounds 11-18 with sanchez, pepiot, pfaddt, etc?

Paul Sporer: Nope, that’s exactly how I’d play it!

clydethedog: NL only, 4×4 roto, $150 salary: Would you trade one year of J. Steele ($4), one year of Nolan Jones ($5) two years of O. Cruz ($8), and Ethan Salas for 3 years of EDC ($8) ?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I think I would. It’s pretty fair on both sides, tbh. Oneil Cruz obviously has big time upside, but we’ve SEEN the greatness from EDC so I get going for him.

Beano: Thanks for these chats! I will put a few queries together:
I know it’s spring training but doesn’t T Kinley look good?
Thoughts on Jack Suwinski?
And, who closes in Miami?

Paul Sporer: —Kinley certainly has looked good, but none of those outings have been in Coors!
—I was huge on Suwinski last yr and that flopped, but I’m willing to throw a buck at him in deeper leagues this yr in hopes he can carve out some time
—I dunno, Robb Nen perhaps?! I don’t really have a strong lean for MIA… maybe just take the cheapest of Tinoco-Faucher-Bender

ransofast: do you think austin hays is going to be stuck in short side platoon? or will he play enough to mash at GAPB? keeping him at a cheap $4 (260 budget)

Paul Sporer: No I think he’s got a real shot at full-time burn and I’m taking the shot in that park for sure!

Joe: who are your targets at second base if you find yourself in the scenario where you’ve missed out on the top 8 or so second baseman?

Paul Sporer: I’m probably looking at Andres Gimenez, Xander Bogaerts, Brandon Lowe, and Jonathan India as my favorites outside that Top 8. Depends how deep the lg is, but I also like Maikel Garcia, Colt Keith, and Thayro Estrada (now in COL!)

E: In the last sleeper and bust, there was a lot of discussion about apprehension regarding Corbin Burnes. I obviously can’t speak to the cutter shape like experts, but just looking at swinging strike rate for his spring innings, it’s noticeably up. Just wondering your thoughts on this disconnect. Is the sample size still too small to say something real at least from a swstrike%?

Paul Sporer: I do understand why ppl are seeing the sinking K% trend over the last few yrs and having some concern, but Justin and I both think he can rebound w/the Ks as his 13% SwStr is still very solid (and above avg!)

smuckles: Paul! Did I totally mess up by keeping Evan Carter over Heliot Ramos and Luis Rengifo in my ten team Dynasty roto league?

Paul Sporer: No, not totally. I might’ve leaned toward Ramos myself despite being a bit of a Carter stan myself, but I’m not fully out on Carter. He said he’s more in tune w/his body and won’t just try to play through things if he gets hurt again, but there’s still a ton of speed, a bit of pop, and part of a great lineup (at least vR). He might lose PT vL unless he can improve there, but he can do enough damage vR to be a stud if healthy

AJG: Love your work, Paul! I have the 12th pick overall (after keepers), and I am looking at a list of potentially Jazz, Marte, Acuna, Devers, Alonso, Machado, Seager, Albies, Altuve, Rooker, Teoscar, and Butler. Any preference / top 3 from this list of 12? I see issues and upside with each. 5 cats: R, HR, RBI, SB, OPS

Paul Sporer: Still an intriguing group there and I’d lean toward Acuña, Jazz, Machado, and Butler as my top 4. That still boosts Butler a bit, but I’m on his hype train this year!!!

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Paul Sporer: Annnnddddd we’re baaaack!!!

Matt W.: What is the odds Sandy Alcantara starts the year as a Yankee?  by May? by July

Paul Sporer: Pretty low early on, I think Miami wants to wait unless they just get bowled over w/an offer. But by midseason, I can see it… 35%!

Rick: Worried about Devers shoulders at all?

Paul Sporer: A bit, yeah. I’ve been skipping over him in all my drafts so far

Sittin on the dock of the bay: BASEBALL!!!!!!!  Love you Paul!  I’m so excited!!!!!

Paul Sporer: Let’s goooo!!!!

Jerry: You might wanna get a protective order against that “Sittin on the dock of the bay” guy.  Just sayin

Paul Sporer: Wait, how’d you know about them before I picked the msg?!

db: Hi, Paul, worth freezing James Woods at the cost of a sixth-round pick?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely, seal it for sure!

AJG: Soderstrom or Manzardo? I very much love both, but I will only plan on rostering one.

Paul Sporer: Ooooh, it’s tough to pick one, but I’m a Manzo guy!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta run. I’m finishing up my latest SP rankings with plenty of movement and several new profiles! Stay tuned. Back next week, take care y’all!