Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – July 22nd, 2026

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out!!

Rhetoric Flair: Can I cut Framber Valdez at this point? None of his numbers (advanced or otherwise) give me any hope.

Paul Sporer: I dunno, I likely still wouldn’t outside of maaaybe the shallowest leagues depending who is available. I know yesterday was a NIGHTMARE but even accounting for that, he has a 4.57 ERA/1.38 WHIP – not what you paid for, but not season-killing, either. In most leagues, I just don’t know that you’re getting something better off the wire. So depends on size & who you’re getting

MD: Next week, you taking a 2 start Bennet (@ATH, @LAD) over either Fried (@CHW, @CHC), Webb (MIL), Sanchez (@BAL)? Messick and Yamamoto are my other 2, but the recent struggles from Webb/Sanchez have me wondering if I should get cute here

Paul Sporer: No that’s a devastating 2-step for Bennett there. He’s been good but I can’t see pushing over the group. Maybe if Fried looks completely discombobulated today fresh off the IL but I doubt it.

Paul Sporer: If his matchups were good, I could see getting cute v. the 1-start studs

Scotty G: Is it crazy to start thinking about dropping Gausman? I’m in a H2H league with shallow rosters, so basically no such thing as a bench streamer, and he’s killing my ratios every week.

Paul Sporer: He is super frustrating. Over his L13, it’s a 5.48 ERA/1.48 WHIP, but a legitimately good 18% K-BB (his season mark of 17% is 28th among qualified SPs) makes it hard to fully fade him. That nasty BABIP that plagued him early in his TOR career has come back after 2 yrs off with a .345 during this 13-start run. I stillll have a hard time cutting given the raw skills, though. at BOS this weekend is scary but then STL next week. Who can you get for him off the wire?

Paul Sporer: I went through like 3 different answers there thinking I was totally off him, but the glimpses we’re getting say he’s not far off being “himself” (SDP, NYM, NYY starts)

MD: Jump (@ARZ), King (@ATL) or K Montero (@CHC) today. Who ya got?

Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-chart-july-22nd-2026/

jimleylandpalmer: Have both Vlad and Tatis at dirt cheap in a keep 5 forever league (10tm 5X5). Planning to move off one of them, trade in the offseason, and use Jesus Made in one of their spots. Both Vlad and Tatis same age, who is the best bet over the next few years?

Paul Sporer: Tatis. Showing that a power outage doesn’t cut off all his avenues to fantasy value: 25 SBs, .286 AG and way further up the defensive spectrum

Brian Burns: Hello, 11T 5×5 OBP Roto, Keeper. Sorry for the long question but I have been going back and forth on this for weeks.
I’m currently in 2nd place; top three teams are separated by 1 point.  I’m 1st in pitching (could use Wins and K’s), but 7th in batting…Need HR (9th), Runs (9th) and OBP (7th).  I have Konner Griffin ($7) on the IL until Sept, do I trade him for a bat or SP now with teams out of the running and fly flag forever or hold.  If trade, what ranked batter or SP should I be asking for?
Current Roster
Jeffers
Devers
K. Marte (Traded for)
E. Suarez
Neto
Hoerner
Burleson
Bauers
R. Greene
McCarthy
Soderstrom (Just traded for)
U – G. Mitchell
U- Rumfield
Bench – Condon and Vinnie P.
Thank you!

Paul Sporer: Classsssic flags fly forever move as you suggest and for me, the exact time I trade in a chip like Griffin, especially with him being out injured. I feel like you name your price here and can start pretty silly. Find a trade match who can fill multiple needs even if they don’t have the single best player. You’re looking for premium pop. 2B/SS look great with Ketel/Neto so you’re searching for the corners where pop is most plentiful.

Paul Sporer: Given unknown keeper/contract status, I’m reluctant to give names, but obv look for expiring deals bc it’s easier to get more that way. If you can get some youngish who has some keeper upside, too, cool, but don’t worry if not. You’re going for the win here.

Woody1937: How do you deal with burnout throughout the season, especially since you’ve got many leagues to keep track of on top of reading and writing articles? I understand fantasy writing is your job but surely your ability to concentrate ebbs and flows through the season.

Paul Sporer: Just gotta be sure to take nights away. Completely away, not even watching games. Great time for some reading, movies, earlier bedtime. I do love the grind. Firing up the quad screen with Tigers featured on my computer and Big Inning on my iPad to enjoy a night of baseball is great! We talk so much about how it’s a marathon because it is, but I’m keenly reminded it at different points every year and what it means to remember that for fantasy management. You have to move faster on waiver wires these days because of the proliferation of info, but I still think patience is rewarded with proven players. We’re still going to have some guys who we think are having a bad season end up on the high end where we’ll be saying remember when we were dogging him?

Paul Sporer: Hopefully those players end up being Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Trea Turner… and NOOOO it’s not bc I have all 3 on my Main Event… oh wait, yes it is. That’s 100% why I hope that, nevermind!

The K-Man: Ivan Herrera looks toasty toast, with a stranglehold on the #2 spot in St. Louis. Which formerly lower tier catchers are willing to insert into lineup while Herrera tries to stop killing worms? N. Fortes, Joe Mack, Francisco A., Jeffers?

Paul Sporer: I’m surprised Jeffers is available, I really like him. I know he was hurt, but he’s been back for a bit now. Anyway, that aside, I’m likely to hang with em on Herrera. I’d hate to miss a huge game from him. He’s been crazy streaky this year. First 18 gms: .676 OPS, Next 50: .889, Last 32: .547

Paul Sporer: On the other hand, his batted ball metrics are rouggghh: 5% Barrel, 39% Hard Hit. Well, I would get Jeffers at the very least. Does that mean you cut Herrera for him?

Scotty G: Re: Gausman, some of the best wire options are Roki, Ober, Keider, who also have their own question marks

Paul Sporer: Yeah I can’t get there with them. Ober’s been better but it’s on a wire w/that HR and low-velo combo. Keider is back in with Flaherty to IL, but he’s riding a tightrope all year, too. Roki is just wildly inconsistent and def not better than Gausman for me. I know the bad ones are annoying, but I’m holdin him

HappyFunBall: Greetings Paul, and thanks for the chat!  12xOBP/SLG Daily lineups and I’ve got a pickle today:

1B/DH
Harper v. Lauer (LHP but not a good one)
Murakami v. Quantrill

3B/SS/DH
R. Lewis v. Cecconi
McGonigle v. Rea
Neto v. Dobbins

It’s Neto or Lewis I feel, unless I want to bigbrain myself into sitting Bryce Harper for the handedness matchup. Though now that I look at it he’s not only mid against LHP this year (82 wRC+) but also overall in July (71). Am I about to actually sit Bryce Harper for the day?

HappyFunBall: Shorter version of the long Q I just posted: If I’m living a roster/IR crunch, is it time to cut bait on Will Smith?

Paul Sporer: Ya I’m cutting Will Smith this Sunday off my Main team. as for the start-sit, I do think it is Harper crazily enough. Now bc he’s a superstar he might just do superstar things, espec. since he could face righty RPs, but I don’t hate sitting him here. I love Royce and hold him high esteem but I can understand if others don’t see him close to Harper vL

mjmclain: How many months of MLB baseball will we get next year?

Paul Sporer: I think we get the full season but lockout seems inevitable from all reports

jimleylandpalmer: Thanks on the Tatis/Vlad. What do you think of Vlad as a dynasty asset in general at the moment? We’ve seen power outages and hot streaks in the past, but is the overall outlook significantly dampened by what he’s done thus far in 2026?

Paul Sporer: I’d be open to buying at some sort of discount. I doubt anyone is just giving him away and if you do decide to move him, you should expect a bit lower price tag than last year, but this is almost certainly going to be a blip season in the grand scheme

MD: Umps just gave Cole a balk for stopping because the pitch clocks went out. Weak.

Paul Sporer: Lame as heck. I’m watchin it and agree w/him

jazzrunner12: What should we make of Bailey Ober? He has no velocity but is consistently pitching in the top 50% of AL starters.  He had one bad outing where he was destroyed but otherwise he has been a solid citizen.  Can he be streamed against bad teams?

Paul Sporer: Semi-answered this in that other Q, but ya he can be streamed against bad teams just never be surprised by a multi-HR meltdown.

The K-Man: re: Jeffers/Herrera, didn’t have to cut Ivan, had 1 IL spot and R.J. was best available option for weeks. Might have to cut I.H. for the dry desert of streaming SP options soon, unfortunately.

Paul Sporer: I can dig it. If the batted ball metrics were stronger, I’d stretch to keep him around but with such a strong replacement available in Jeffers, I have no issues w/the swap

RKM: Sell Mclean? Think the Mets limit his IP? Could I sneak in a Webb/Drohan for him? 12 team 4 player keeper league with QS

Paul Sporer: Whoa, whoa, whoa, slow down!!

Paul Sporer: I don’t like to play IP limit game preemptively, I feel it’s far too inexact to benefit from. McLean also threw 162 total last year, so even though they suck, there’s no real reason to just shut him down. Maybe can be cautious down the stretch if he’s showing any fatigue issues, but outright choppin him doesn’t make sense to me. Let him show he can take 30+ turns. As for Webb/Drohan, I would certainly hope McLean could bring them. That might even be a touch light.

Mike: What are we doing with Raleigh in 12 team redrafts? he’s hurting more than helping, and while there isn’t much on the wire, there are options that won’t hurt batting average. is it time to cut?

Paul Sporer: I can’t, even in a 12. He’s actually 30th on the Player Rater which is kinda crazy given how bad he’s been and how good the top end of C has been so if just gets even a bit better, he’s clearing the Top 24 bar for a 2C 12-teamer. Let’s see if the grand slam jars him loose for a run.

jorourke87: Hey Paul, middling SPs hanging on my bench with occasional starts: Bibee, Arrighetti, McGreevy, and a now-apparently-injured Ginn. They each have their strengths and weaknesses, who do you keep the longest? Who gets the axe first?

Paul Sporer: McGreevy is first cut before that Sword of Damocles comes down on me. He’s delivering more slop than twitter these days and an 11% K-BB, 8% SwStr just doesn’t do it for me. Bibee probably has the longest shelf life for me.

R.B. Urgess: What’s your read on Canzone since the platoon status was removed? Results have been pretty lukewarm at best… is the magic gone?

Paul Sporer: Too soon to say if it’s overexposure as a full timer or just natural regression from a pretty high perch. A 22% HR/FB is still crazy high and could be primed for more regression, too, but I’d hang w/him through this lull a bit more

canderson20: In case anyone missed the news, Crochet basically said he’s done for the regular season and just trying to come back for the playoffs in case anyone was holding him still.

Paul Sporer: Dangggg

Scotty G: What do you want the Tigers to do with Skubal? Keep or trade?

Paul Sporer: Keep unless we’re cooked. I think it’s gonna come riiight down to it for the Tigers barring a huge W or L streak that makes em clear buyers or sellers. The only silver lining to them collapsing would be the prospects of a Skubal trade

nuxie: Who says no jackson Merrill for lodolo steer and pagan

Paul Sporer: Hmm, that’s pretty interesting. Might still have to get a bit more in there for SD bc while they’d no doubt like to move some of these big deals, Jackson’s probably not atop the list

bostonbosox45: Any chance this new Austin Riley can stick around all second half?!?

Paul Sporer: Oh certainly a chance. Even if he’s just his July the rest of way would be nice: .792 OPS with huge pop

Phillip Denny: Wrobleksi has to firmly be above Sheehan in all formats, right? I know the peripherals make it seem close, but dude has literally half the ERA and goes much deeper into games.

Paul Sporer: Yes but only because Wrobo’s skills are surging. If he was still firmly sub-20% K, I’d be really concerned. He’s looked great over his L5: 1.90 ERA/0.94 WHIP/23% K-BB. Sheehan still has great skills, though, and is still a pretty firm start in most matchups.

David Wiers: Hi again, Paul! Feel OK starting Ian Seymour @ TOR tomorrow? Feels like a good matchup, but he’s been iffy lately.

Paul Sporer: He has been, TOR is dreadful so if we can’t start him here, we can’t start him. I’d run him!

Salty: What’s worse – dropping a player in a H2H league only for a future opponent picking him and starting him vs you and getting diesel results (in this case Keller today) or being a commissioner of a professional league getting paid millions and not spending an extra few minutes to learn the correct way to pronounce the name of the potential #1 pick in the draft?

Paul Sporer: LOOOOOOL. Def the latter. I think he called him Rock Chalk Jayhawk… he had to know that was wrong!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta scoot. Cool to say “gotta scoot”? Very. Anywayyyy, thanks for coming out, next week will be fun with the Deadline looming. Maybe we can start to identify some potential guys to get who will fill in spots we expect to be traded. Take care, y’all!