Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – February 1st, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Thanks for coming!

Sabey Sabes: What’s a realistic expectation from Judge this year? Have him as a keeper at #10 overall, but oh the trade options, too.

Paul Sporer: Something like .285/40/100/100

Paul Sporer: And that’s conservative, tbh

Nate: If you can keep either Nate Lowe or Tristan Casas in a 16 teamer…think they’ll be roughly similar this year? And moving forward? Or am I over/underestimating Casas?

Paul Sporer: Probably overestimating Casas right now. I’m a big Lowe fan so it’s easily him for me

RobbieD: Hi Paul!

Paul Sporer: Hi!

Kate: Listening to pods lately, there seems to be some thought that Luis Garcia could eventually lose his rotation spot to hunter brown.  This probably sorts itself out by injury anyway, but this seems odd to me.  Garcia has been a pretty darn good starter these last two years, I’d think he’s got a rotation spot unless he implodes.

Paul Sporer: Yeah, it’s more injury or even my boy Jose Urquidy failing (or he could be the injury given his history) for me. I love Hunter Brown, but I’m certainly not anti-Luis Garcia

Big Dan McGraw: do you think there is a BA increase to lefty sluggers? I think someone like Rizzo and Casas could see their average spike up

Paul Sporer: Some will, but it’s really hard to predict who and thus I’m not putting too much emphasis on it in projections & rankings

Tatis Jr: Does Jeff Zimmerman’s article yesterday re: shoulder surgery make you reconsider ranking me 3rd overall for SS going into 2023?

Paul Sporer: No, I’m already lower than the market on him and share the concerns outlined there. It is 3rd at SS, but not the 1st/2nd rd price he’s been going in drafts

ScottTINSTAAPP: When do you think will Garver get C eligibility in NFBC (assuming he does indeed get it at all)?

Paul Sporer: I think it could take some time. If Sam Huff makes the team, there’s a decent shot he doesn’t get it at all with Heim & Huff covering the backstop duties. But I’m not sure how likely that is. Even as the backup, I think it’s a once-a-week catching kinda thing for Garv at best

Kate: Maeda in any danger if losing a rotation spot with the Lopez addition?

Paul Sporer: No, it’s actually Ober who is likely in danger of not starting the season in the rotation –

 

DanHayesMLB

@DanHayesMLB

 

Heard Kenta Maeda is not being removed from the #MNTwins starting rotation as a result of the Pablo López deal. Maeda had his Tommy John surgery on Sept. 1, 2021. He’s healthy, had a normal offseason and headed to free agency (after this season).

20 Jan 2023

CRDB40: Comparing Robbie Ray & Nick Lodolo last year – the rate metrics are eerily similar. If Lodolo gets close to 160 IP, could you see a Ray-like season?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, no doubt. I’m a big Lodolo fan. Wish he had a better park, but he & Greene have the talent to withstand that park

Matt: The tatis shoulder article bummed me out as a dynasty owner. Whats the best player you think I could get for him in a points league (regardless of position)

Paul Sporer: Probably anyone outside the top 10. He is still very well regarded by many so there should be someone in your league that likes him

Datt Mamon: I know you have Marte and India ranked closely, but if you had to either (a) keep India or (b) trade for Marte, what do you think you’d do (I realize you have no idea about the league)? I have India in a keeper league and am wondering if I should try to find someone in the draft. I made an offer for Marte.

Paul Sporer: I’d prefer India, tbh. Gimme the younger guy in the markedly better park when profiles are close

Ben: When can we expect the followup Rotowear x Sporer collab?

Paul Sporer: Would looove to get something going this season. This might as well have been one as it’s very much Sporer-approved!!! https://rotowear.com/products/bronx-barkers-shirt

Kate: Think I saw recently that Peterson and megill are on the outside looking in for the rotation to start the year.  Does this mean the Mets aren’t going six man?  Think there were some whispers of that to help senga acclimate.  Will he just go every 5 days like everyone else?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I haven’t seen any confirmation on 6-man so for now I’m operating as a 5-man and seeing Peterson/Megill as 6/7. I can’t imagine JV/Max would be all that interested in a 6-man, so maybe they could run a makeshift one where Senga’s on it, but not the two aces

Chip: Thoughts on Acuna this year? I have him at a premium price in a keeper league (appx 15% of my budget). I like him, and believe in his upside, but 15% feels steep…

Paul Sporer: I feel like the power returns and if he’s fully healthy, I won’t be surprised if pushes for a 40-40 season

Weej: Is this a good time to trade Hader in a dynasty league or would it be better to wait until midseason?

Paul Sporer: He closed strong in September so if you find a trade partner who acknowledges that and pays a fair price, I’m in. I’d rather not sell low, though

Matt: have a rookie keeper draft where i need to choose: would you rather have Kodai Senga or Hunter Brown for the next 5 years?

Paul Sporer: Age alone gives Brown a big edge so he’s my pick

Carl: How close are Strider and McClanahan in dynasty? Coin flip?

Paul Sporer: Yeah it’s pretty darn close

CJ: Who’s a position player in the drafts you’ve done so far this year that you find yourself taking pretty frequently?

Paul Sporer: Wil Myers & Jake Fraley

p: Matt: I swapped a $48 Tatis for a $17 Buxton to start this off season (Ottoneu 4×4). Not sure if that info helps but figured I’d pass along a real example

Paul Sporer: There ya go, Matt!

Jason: When are you dropping your top 100 starting pitchers list and how often do you expect you will be updating your list?  Thanks.

Paul Sporer: Big things coming for the RG Rankings this year. Stay tuned! (coming in Feb…. which started today, so yeah, soon!)

Kate: How do you think the Diamondbacks rotation shakes out to start the year?  Which of Jameson, Nelson, pfaadt make it?  Davies isn’t really going to steal a spot from one of these guys right?

Paul Sporer: Davies will probably get one to start unfortunately, but it’s weird bc all 3 of those prospects had 130+ IP last year so they don’t need to be all that protected volume-wise. Roster Resource has Nelson penciled into the 5 right now, but I think it’s an open battle b/w the 3 so we’ll have to stay tuned in Spring Training

Matt: Does pete fairbanks become the next alex colome in tampa?

Paul Sporer: In terms of being a true closer? Yes, I think so as long as his health allows. He will probably still have some outings where he comes in for the 8th and then someone else closes, but I think a healthy Fairbanks has a good shot at 30+ SVs

Chip: Is Ty France a decent starting 3b for a contending fantasy team?

Paul Sporer: Yes, that’s no problem. You don’t have to be top tier across the board and I really like what France has been the last 2 yrs

tony twist: Hi Paul, could you please rank the following for 5×5 dynasty? Michael Harris II, Vinnie P, Gunnar, Chourio, Lawler, Elly De La Cruz, and Drew Jones

Paul Sporer: Harris, Gunnar, Chourio, Vinnie P, Elly, Lawler, Druw

Bob: Would you keep Realmuto over Woodruff or Cease in 12-team HTH Categories league

Paul Sporer: I’m certainly open to it. Are you keeping any SPs?

Insert Witty Name Here: What’s the earliest you’d draft Harper this year in an OBP league with only 3 IL spots?

Paul Sporer: Like pick 180-200? It’s nice to have the IL spots, but you still have to get through half the season with 1 of your IL spots locked. I love Harper, but he’s pretty much a pass for me this year

Shaft: How many SP and RP should I aim to start the season with on my roster in a league with a 1500 IP cap?  Starting lineup is 5xSP and 5xRP.

Paul Sporer: How many roster spots do you have?

Farhandrew Zaidman: Do you think any of the 2022 CBA rules (pre-arb pool, service time for awards, draft pick comp for the same) has had the desired effect of getting young guys up sooner? Or too soon to tell?

Paul Sporer: Still too soon to tell. It might’ve just been a banger rookie class that would’ve happened regardless of the rules, but I’m eager to see this year and the next couple and how it impacts calling ’em up

Weej: Any idea what to expect from Conforto this season

Paul Sporer: I’m not suuuper optimistic. 475 PA/16 HR/.248 AVG

Lonnie: How long a leash do you think Vaughn Grissom has in Atlanta in 2023?

Paul Sporer: It really depends if the defense improves enough to hold the position… which I’m not super confident in right now

Dawg: Paul, long time fan, love your work….please go easy on Justin, he’s sensitive. Question: As a Tigers fan, what’s your confidence level in Alex Lange as a closer?

Paul Sporer: LOL, we love goin back n forth at each other, especially when we disagree on a player! I think Lange can be pretty damn good. He really went off last year: 30% K, 19% SwStr, 56% GB. It did come with an 11% BB rate but that’s an improvement for the Tigers closer given where Soto sat (13% career)

My Name is My Name: Think K’Bryan Hayes can get back to 15-20 homers?

Paul Sporer: Well it’d be getting to, not back to, but yes I do! Justin (https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-112…) and the comments (https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/paul-sporers-2023-third-base-ranking…) didn’t agree though! I fully acknowledge it’d be a new level and will take some growth, but I’m willing to place the bet

operationalex: that jjezora guy thinks he knows everything, eh?

Paul Sporer: lololol JJ was a good sport in the PitchCon chat!

Paul Sporer: His takes were rough, but he didn’t take it personally when we were giving him hell and I always appreciate when someone can roll with the punches on stuff like that since at the end of the day, it’s all just sharing our opinions

Duchess: Man why are the projections dragging Oswaldo Cabrera so hard?

Paul Sporer: I’m not too sure, but I’m a fan! I have him for 15 HR/17 SB and think he’s a great DraftChampions pick

Justin Mason: What analyst is this year’s Justin Mason?

Paul Sporer: Probably him again

Duchess: Steamer seems a little down on Drury. Is there some “prove it” regression going on here? Seems like a solid candidate for 550 AB in a decent park with a solid lineup

Paul Sporer: Are you just setting me up to talk about my favorites, Duchess? I like the buyback on Drury given his price and triple eligibility. LA is a nice place to hit… not Cincy, but still nice! I understand the prove it aspect, but the price provides that cushion IMO (pick 205)

Syllogism: Can Ty Anderson bring some LAD magic he picked up to LAA?

Paul Sporer: I’d think at last some of it and I made a joke that only went to LAA so he could bounce over to Chavez Ravine if he struggles to some more tips from Prior

Paul Sporer: But yeah, he can maintain a strong changeup and remain fantasy viable

The Money Shot: What kind of leash do you think Adolis is workin with?

Paul Sporer: Probably a decent one bc of his defense, but I just don’t trust the bat

Shaft: Roster size is 35

Paul Sporer: Re the SP/RP question from earlier… I’d probably go 9-11 SPs and 7 RPs

Weej: C Walker or Tellez for 1B? Mainly looking for HR, RBI, and AVG.

Paul Sporer: Walker for sure: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2023-first-base-rankings/

Hazen the New Guy: Hey Paul! Do you know if playing time in Carroll’s projection have been adjusted since the Varsho deal? And if not, does he figure to do better with a lesser share against LHP?

Paul Sporer: I don’t know if it has, but there could be a less-is-more factor to his AVG by sitting vL more often since he’s been so bad against them in his career. He was a really tough projection for me (OF ranks out this wk for me) bc his minor league numbers were just SO insane

Syllogism: Do you think Martin Perez can have an acceptable year?

Paul Sporer: If like a 4.20 ERA/1.30 WHIP is acceptable in your format, then yes

Matt: Hey paul, thanks for the chat – what’s your ranking in order of preference for 4-year contract keeper league: Hunter Brown, Ken Waldichuk, Hayden Wesneski, Luis Ortiz, Drey Jameson, Ryne Nelson?

Paul Sporer: Brown, Wesneski, Ortiz, Jameson, Waldichuk, Nelson

Robb: I’ve got Avisail Garcia, Profar, and Soler as my bench OF guys in a dynasty league mostly due to wanting to avoid dropping them and avoid the contract penalty. The league is points based with major emphasis on slugging. Which one would you lose (their contracts are roughly equal)?

Paul Sporer: Think it’s gotta be Profar with SLG being such a focus in your league… and him not having a team, though I fully expect him to sign by ST

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get goin’! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!