Recipe: Thinning The Herd With K/9, SwStr%, and pVals – Part 2

Last week I detailed my late-round starting pitcher recipe, “Thinning the Herd”. I wrote about the first six pitchers on this list and this week I’ll continue with the bottom six. As a reminder, here’s my ingredients list:

• A SwStr% in 2022 of at least 11%. (2022 MLB SP average – 10.7%)
• A K/9 projection (steamer) of eight or better. (2022 MLB SP average – 8.18)
• Positive pVals (Pitch Info) on at least two pitches in 2022.
• An ADP greater than 100.

NOTE: That last 130 IP threshold is applied to all pitchers in the way I am merging datasets, so we can view this whole analysis with a 2022 130 minimum.

Bonus: After all that mixing, why not bring in some projected command stats? These have nothing to do with our query, but a little added spice will give us a little insight and strengthen our pallet.

K/BB 2022 MLB SP average – 2.89
K-BB% 2022 MLB SP average – 14.1%

Now mix it aaaalllll together and…yummy!:

How about Tony Gonsolin? Yes, he got lucky with .207 BABIP in 2022 and he’s probably not going to get another 16 wins, but he could get 10, couldn’t he? There’s a lot of regression coming his way as each one of our projection systems predicts an ERA over four. But, his splitter earned a league-best 17.1 pVal (no IP. min) and he paired it with a great slider and a decent curveball. If you look at his savant page, Gonsolin’s best two pitches of his career came in 2022 in the slider and splitter when using run value. Take a look the splitter’s Swing% and SLG/BIP against lefties:

Lefties really swung at it, didn’t they? Sure, when it was left in the middle of the zone, it got smoked, but he didn’t leave it there too often. The splitter was a weapon against lefties, but he didn’t just reserve it for hitters from the left side. He still threw the splitter 21% of the time against righties, but it was the slider that was deadly against right-handed batters:

The location of that pitch looks pretty good to me. But did he elevate the fastball? I hear that’s what pitchers need to do nowadays. Well, not so much. I won’t force you to view yet another heat map but it’s here for those who want it. The one aspect of Gonsolin’s game that gives me hesitation is his trouble leaving the fastball in the middle of the zone. His wFA pVal of 0.6 is proof and it has been losing veloicty since 2020. Could it be injury related? Sure, and it’s something to keep an eye on this offseason and into spring training.

Patrick Sandoval’s first half BABIP was .330. The MLB average among starters was .290. That would indicate that he was a little unlucky and his ERA came down from 3.22 to 2.53, first half to second half, and he finished the season at 2.91. However, it’s no secret that Sandoval struggled with his fastball in 2022. If you lower the IP threshold on our pitch info pVal leaderboards, his wFA was one of the worst at -8.3. More second half good news shows that he improved, even if it still wasn’t good. Everyone loved his changeup going into 2022, but it was his sinker (6.2) and slider (14.3) pVals that kept his SwStr% up. In all four major league seasons, though only one of them was full, he’s posted a SwStr% above 12% and that shows just how good his other pitches can be. Here’s a look at what he did right in 2022:

The MLB average gives some context, but it’s not an apples to apples comparison so don’t let it fool you. Regardless, Sandoval has good pitches and what he needs in order to take him to the next level is a pitch that play nicely with the changeup against right-handed batters. I’d like to think his slider could be effective down and in to righties, but what do I know?

Take caution when drafting Frankie Montas as it was recently reported that he may miss the first month of the season with a shoulder injury. However, if you can sneak him on your roster as a last-round pick or $1 price tag, you may find that it will be worth the wait. He’s still a power pitcher averaging above 96 (pitch info) on his fastball and when his splitter is working, it’s straight fire! Just see for yourself:

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All of us would love to see a full, healthy Carlos Carrasco season and it’s hard to believe he’s going into an age-37 season in 2023. Through all of his ups and downs in the health department, Carrasco has maintained a career SwStr% of 12.8% and in his 18, 19, and 20 seasons he was just at or above 15%. He bounced back to a 9.00 K/9 in 2022, but his fastball velo has been dropping as we should expect:

I think he still has upside if he’s healthy and if he can re-invent himself somewhat. A positive note from 2022 was his 94th statcast chase percentile and he did it with a 43.7% O-Swing on his slider and a 47.2% O-Swing on his changeup. Similar to Montas, I think Carrasco is worthy of a late-round, $1-$2 pickup in most leagues.

Are people in on Alex Wood again this year? A 12.5% SwStr% in 2021 encouraged many fantasy managers during last year’s draft season. That mark fell to 11% in 2021, which is still decent and captured by this query logic, but it didn’t return the expectations people had. There has been a lot said about the gap between Wood’s 5.10 ERA and his 4.00 xERA, but that doesn’t help you one bit if you rostered him last season. Rostering him through a full season was better than trying to stream him in shallower leagues. Wood had eight games with four or more earned runs and five games with three earned runs. His 2021 sinker (wSI 9.6) and slider (wSL 6.3) pVals really came down in 2022 and he barely qualifies in this pVal query with a 2022 wFA of 0.3, a wSI at -0.7, and a wSL dipping to -1.2. His wCH (1.7) was a good pitch but his bread and butter slider got hit pretty hard with righties slugging .423 against it. For perspective, Ryan Mountcastle and Yandy Diaz both slugged .423 in 2022. You cannot look passed the fact that he was unlucky in 2022 and that he has the proven skills to regress. I would still draft Alex Wood but I’d want to know whether or not he is in the best shape of his life come spring time.

We now come to our last pitcher, Josiah Gray. In shallow leagues, I’m not drafting him. In deep leagues, I’m bidding $1 or taking him with my last pick. His prospect graduation TLDR still seems right on to me:

“Graduation TLDR: Gray was traded from LA to Washington during his rookie season and had mediocre numbers despite strong peripherals and obviously good stuff. Still relatively new to pitching, he projects to continue improving deep into his twenties and make some All Star teams.”

His slider is good (2022 pVal 6.4) and he has a decent curveball (2022 pVal 1.7), but his fastball is bad (2022 pVal -24.0). In fact, if you drop the IP threshold down to 140 to include Gray, his fastball was the worst in the league among starters. What’s up with that? Hitters slugged .738 off the pitch in 2022, mostly because he doesn’t locate it well. He’ll need to start doing two things in 2023 and that is improve his fastball command and find a pitch to throw against left-handed batters. Right now all he has against lefties is a curveball and a fastball. His changeup, thrown 4.9% of the time to lefties did not do it. It will be interesting to see if the Nationals pitching staff can bring the best out of Gray, but only time will tell.