Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – February 14th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!

GZ: put a bet on Rocco Baldelli manager of the year, money in the bank

Paul Sporer: You like Minnesota big this year? I feel like there could be some stiffer competition in the Central this year

E: I feel like the hype on Evan Carter is a little out of control. Is he not pretty similar to TJ Freidl except that Freidl just did it for a full season? Am I way off here?

Paul Sporer: You’re not way off, no. He is a platoon threat which is tough for a Top 150 pick. I’m a big fan of his game, but some of that is more about his real life game (excellent eye and defense) so I understand being cautious about his rising draft price. He is definitely the big Playoff Tax guy this year. Always seems to be 1-2 a year

MS: In an 8 team, 5×5 roto, keep 10/20, who is a more valuable trade assest: Adolis Garcia or Randy Arozarena?

Paul Sporer: They’re likely pretty close, but I think Garcia might generate a bit more in the market right now

Nick: 10-team NL-only dynasty league, $100 cap instead of $260… I have $12 Bryce, $7 Josh Bell, $6 Christian Walker, $3 Rowdy. Want to keep Bryce and Rowdy. Don’t think I’ll get anyone to bite on Bell. Would you swap Walker for Seiyza Suzuki or Jake Berger?

Paul Sporer: I’m still a huge Seiya Suzuki fan. I was bummed by his spring injury last year that put a damper on his season, but he still finished strong and my interest remains strong

Quarantino Martinez: Is Ben Joyce going to factor into saves for the Halos any time soon?

Paul Sporer: He could, but he really needs to reign in his control a bit before he’s really going to push for that role. Robert Stephenson is the guy to get if you don’t buy into Carlos Estevez

Raggin: Is the Ragans Helium too high? Debating him or Woo, who is lower in your ranks but pitches for a team that wins. (FWIW, all the projections have Woo ahead in the auction calculator, but all the big rankers/ADP prefer Ragans.)

Paul Sporer: I much prefer Ragans. I’m not out on Woo, but just think Ragans is a better pitcher. I’m not quite sure where the projections are getting Woo besting him so much in WHIP from as that appears to be their only real difference. Seattle does have a better outlook than Kansas City, but that’s not enough for me to take the lesser skilled SP. I could also see KC getting a bit better this year to improve Ragans’ W potential

E: Do you think there’s anyway Ricky Teidmann breaks camp with the team? He obviously doesn’t have enough innings to start for a full season. Have you heard any rumblings about potentially being a starter/reliever mix for him?

Paul Sporer: I’d be floored if he broke camp. He’d have to really wow the team in a colossal way to make that kind of impression. I just think they want him to keep starting and as such, he needs to work out his kinks in the minors

Bruce on Curb: For Roto; Casas or Nolan Jones ?

Paul Sporer: Jones brings the speed, but Casas is a good bit cheaper (~60 v. ~120 ADP) so I think I take the discount and run Casas b/w those 2

Bruce on Curb: Will Reese Olson pitch 150 innings and finish with an Era under 3.99 ?

Paul Sporer: Maaaaybe, but that’s not what I’d project. I’m more in the 4.20 for 140 range which means he’s a stone’s throw from the numbers you’re looking for

Quarantino Martinez: Odds Shane McClanahan pitches this season?

Paul Sporer: Very low…. maybe a taste at the very end of the year

Only Guys: AL Only, 10 team OBP. Pick 2 or 3 of: Ragans ($10), Woo ($10), Jarren Duran ($12), Luis Robert ($30), Davis Schneider ($10), Rodon ($19), Devers ($36)?

Paul Sporer: I don’t know what y’all’s inflation looks like I’d probably go with the 2 superstars – Devers & Roberts – as sub-$40 feels pretty good for both and then throw in Ragans at a dime!

Raggin: Thanks for answering!

Paul Sporer: No prob!

Ragans: Does Ragans’ 3 wild pitches in a row against the Jays where he threw 3 in a row to the backstop make you nervous? I know the rest of his season was great but I’ve never seen anyone else do that.

Paul Sporer: No, just a weird event and like you said, he was fine after. No need to tie any concern to that, IMO

Mike: 30 team league… Do you see Grichuk or Hicks providing any value? Looking for a 3 positional OF

Paul Sporer: I still like Aaron Hicks… I’m a sucker for him and have been forever lol. But on the Angels, he could definitely carve out some time, espec. for a 30-teamer.

Paul Sporer: Where is Grichuk these days?

Paul Sporer: Oh he’s a FA! So yeah, def don’t go with him right now

Guest: Will Lucas Giolito provide any fantasy value this season?

Paul Sporer: I like him on the buyback. I’m giving a pass for the dreadful summer that included 2 cross country trades and a divorce. The White Sox version was fine: 3.79 ERA/1.22 WHIP and I believe he can live around there in Boston

Porcho Villa: OMG @ 30 team league. Not sure that I even know 30 people, much less 30 people that play fantasy baseball!

Paul Sporer: looool. I haven’t play a 30-teamer in quite some time. Not sure I’m up to the challenge these days as you really gotta dig in the pool. Respect the grind!

Nick: Buying or selling Mitch Keller this season? Rough 2nd half but still healthy and capable?

Paul Sporer: I’m fine with him. Not super in, but definitely see an avenue to keep improving. His 167 ADP isn’t bad. I prefer some others guys around there, but if they’re gone, I’m OK w/him

Mike: @Porcho Villa… This 30 teamer is 14 years and going!

Paul Sporer: 14 years? That is AWESOME

Colton: Piggybacking on Suwinski comment: just looked up Nolan Jones issues and they seem to be far more severe than Suwinski’s and they’re being drafted at completely different spots.

Paul Sporer: Part of that is the Colorado factor, but I do love Captain Jack so I like the comp you’re making. I also have some real reservations about Jones at a 60 ADP as y’all will see in my Busts article (out later today)

Colton: Second year in a row I feel like Suwinski is being underrated. I think some of his strikeout issues can be attributed to him being too passive at the plate, and his zone contact, while not great – is far from unmanageable. Any strong feelings on him at all?

Paul Sporer: I posted your comments out of order, my bad

Paul Sporer: But yeah, just underscoring what I was saying already – I do like Suwinski. A 250 ADP for what is essentially a poor man’s Nolan Jones as you were suggesting is totally worth it.

daro: SP targets after round 20 in a 12 team league?

Bruce on Curb: Two( or more ) SPs you like most post 200 ADP ? 12T Roto TY

Paul Sporer: We can kinda double up here with these 2 Qs as there is some overlap: Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz, Aaron Civale, Reid Detmers, Lucas Giolito, Cristopher Sanchez, Griffin Canning, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Severino, and John Means Business

Sonny: One of my leagues recently downsized to 10t. As a formerly very deep 12t that rewarded volume how would you approach this change? My typical 10t strategy is to hoard stars and work the wire but there’s FAAB limits and drop penalties at play

Paul Sporer: Yeah you still want to consolidate star power the best you can in a 10-teamer but you can’t just spam the wire looking for the next start bc the penalties you mention. It’s still worth churning the best you can within the framework of your rules, though, bc star power will carry the day in these shallower leagues

S2H: How early in a roto draft are you comfortable filling in your MI or CI, if players are there that you like (say, two shortstops)? Or would you rather draft another position and grab your flex spots later?

Paul Sporer: I’m not afraid to it really early if the draft falls that way. I understand the inclination to leave it open for a bit since there is some flexibility to it but if there are 3 elite MI that all fit in my setup by round 7 or something, I’m not going to let filling the MI cause me to bypass the best player

Colton: Thank you for the input, I felt like I was going crazy when I was comparing them. Some people in my home league are willing to spend like $30+ on Jones but won’t do league min on Suwinski and I felt like I was on an island about it lol

Paul Sporer: The Jones love is insane right now. I know Coors can help a BABIP god stay hot, but the crazy thing about his season is that he was OBSCENE on the road including a .434 BABIP and there’s just no way that’s happening again

brew crew: What’s your $$$ limit for Acuna in an NL only auction – I mean, at some point it becomes cost prohibitive, despite the gaudy numbers, right?

Paul Sporer: Yes, there is a point for sure. But I think upper $60s is usually where I cap myself in single league auctions for the undisputed best (a little higher in keepers where inflation plays a role)

tmh1968: follow up to earlier question – $2 DL Hall or $9 C. Sanchez?

tmh: Have a dilemma (NL only) – can keep 5 prospects in minors but DL Hall, who was on my AL team, was traded to Milw. Minors filled w/ J. Williams, T. Troy, B. House, M. Shaw & J. Misiorowski. So, trade a prospect and keep Hall in minors…allowing me to keep Cristopher Sanchez @ $9 – or just dump Hall or one of the othe r5 prospects….whaddya think? PS. – love the podcasts w/ Justin..great work!

Paul Sporer: I want to keep Sanchez at $9 so I’m inclined to make that a priority. If you’re big on Hall (which is fine, there is upside and I like the move to MIL as they should let him start), then entertain that trade to get him in your minors so you can hang onto both

captainjameshook: Dynasty, deep rebuild, Eury, J Walker, EDLC, or Caminero? No pitching on my team to speak of as is.

Paul Sporer: I’d still go for one of the big hitters even with your lack pitching. Honestly, that’s a great trio so I don’t have a HUGE lean. Despite hating EDLC’s redraft ADP right now (top 25), I still like him plenty in dynasty so he’s my pick of those 3 studs

Insert Witty Name Here: Following up on that league sign up post?

Paul Sporer: I think Podhorzer’s league classified post is coming next week, I will give another nudge reminder, but it is coming!

Rated Rookies: I like to draft one AAA/young guy if I can for cheap. OBP league. Who do you like best of Caminero/Rocchio/Rafaela/Kjerstad/Mead?

Paul Sporer: I gotta go Caminero there, but I want to point out that I love Kjerstad, too so if you can nab both somehow, I’d recommend it. If I gotta pick on, it’s Cami.

Rated Rookies: PS – I loved the pod you did last year about prospects from a fantasy perspective. Found a lot of names off it. Hope you do it again!

Paul Sporer: Yes, I will be reaching out to Eric Longenhagen again to run it back!

Justin Mason: Be mine?

Paul Sporer: Forever!

Paul Sporer: And with that, I gotta head out. I’ll have my Busts piece up shortly, in the meantime, check out Jeff’s: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2024-fantasy-busts-zimmermans-picks/

Guest: I’m always up for a valentine’s day conversation about fantastic busts.  Or did I read that wrong?

Paul Sporer: Yooo, chiiillll!!!!