Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – August 7th, 2024

Thanks for coming out!

1:06

Paul Sporer: Hello thank you for coming out!!

1:06

Darren: What’s your take on the closer situations in KC and Arizona? Do you think anyone runs away with the job or will they be committees for the rest of the year?

1:08

Paul Sporer: In fluid situations like that, someone can always grab hold of the job by catching fire. Just tough to know who it’ll be, of course. My bets are on Erceg and Puk.

1:08

Fant’sy Feast: Is Will Smith a huge upgrade over Ben Rice in a 1C, 12-team H2H with OBP and Slugging instead of Avg? Maybe I am so used to waiting to draft catchers and then using non-catching Cs that I just don’t recognize the big boost?

1:14

Paul Sporer: I know Will Smith has been sputtering pretty much since May with a .198/.292/.387 line, but it has still come with 12 HRs and 35 RBIs which are 29 and 86 full season paces. I see a .215 BABIP over this time  and have to think there is some bad luck in there. He is K’ing more than normal at 23% during this period (16% the last 2 yrs) and he is hitting more flyballs than normal which will also curb BABIP. Bottom line is that I’m staying the course w/Smith here. Rice is interesting, but not I can’t take him over Smith

1:14

DatDudeJG: Is something wrong with Luis Castillo?  He used to be a must start all the time but he’s been so up and down this year.  Reminds me of him in his early years.  Thanks for the chat!

1:17

Paul Sporer: Yeah he’s a bit off from 2022-23 but still within his normal range of outcomes. I still have him locked in rotations across virtually all formats (maybe some 10-team and shallower rotations could be deep enough to skip him on occasion).

1:17

Drew: Whats the prospect value I should be looking for, for Ben Joyce?

1:18

Paul Sporer: Probably depends how SVs desperate your trade partner is and are we talking keeper or dynasty (the difference essentially being the total # of keepers for those not familiar w/the distinction!)

1:18

Paul Sporer: I’ll find your response, so just let me know!

1:18

Nova Knicks: Nardi should the Miami closer, right? Not the other guy.

1:20

Paul Sporer: Love Nard Dog! Admittedly my love is born from him being a Fireman god for me in my OOTP Marlins franchise nerd_face but still, it put him on my IRL radar and he is indeed a great RP. I’m fine betting on him, but it’s probably gonna be a split job for a team that isn’t gonna get many SVs rest of way

1:20

The Shart Tank: I just traded for Maikel Garcia. Planning to drop Gleyber. Smart trade?

1:20

Paul Sporer: I don’t mind that, it’s August and Gleyber just isn’t delivering. Probably only AL-Onlys and super deep mixers need to hold Gleybs

1:21

BKrogman33: Do you think Cano will unseat Kimbrel? Thank you Paul.

1:22

Paul Sporer: Maybe, but I’m on the Seranthony spec train! The only thing is the HRs w/Dominguez. You can’tttt give up HRs late. So that does work against him. Bottom line is you can and should spec against Kimbrel so whether you like Cano or someone else, I’m here for it

1:23

Uncle Rico: Who would you rather have?  Ryan Mountcastle or Michael Toglia in a standard 5×5 league?

1:24

Paul Sporer: Toglia for me, but it’s really close. Coors and gtd PT v. being on a great team and playing most days

1:28

Nick: Should I expect Isaac Paredes to be a valuable fantasy contributor for the rest of the season?

1:29

Paul Sporer: Yeah he should still be a solid player. I know he’s sputtering to start in CHC and he was a nice fit for TBR’s park, but there’s no reason to think he just collapses here in the 2H

1:30

Soar or Sink Like A…?: Do Gavin Stone’s recent struggles impact his long-term upside? Is there long-term upside?

1:33

Paul Sporer: I think they underscore the limits of his upside. He probably tops out as a mid-rotation barring some improvements to better put away batters. I don’t know why his SwStr doesn’t really translate to Ks bc he seems to use the Changeup consistently in 2-strike counts and it’s far and away his best whiff pitch. So I don’t know. I wouldn’t count out LAD extracting the most out of him, but I don’t think there’s ace upside whereas I can see a path for River Ryan to reach that kinda height

1:33

John W: Do we live dangerously and ride with Bello for a two step next week? Looks like he’s trying to make some changes, adding a four-seam back to his arsenal. It’s Texas & @Bal

1:37

Paul Sporer: I’ll have a decent rank on him. He is looking better and more consistent of late. I am worried about the persistent homers, but at least at BAL helps that a bit w/the wall (of course their lineup can still rake)

1:37

Guest: Start Musgrove against Mia first start back? Will they limit him?

1:37

Paul Sporer: Hopefully they announce if there are limits, but I’m inclined to start him

1:37

Insert Witty Name Here: in a league where category winners get a quarter of the entry fee back. An owner offered me a lopsided trade that would probably get vetoed by the league.  Is it gentlemanly to reject an offer that is too lopsided in my favor?

1:37

Paul Sporer: Very gentlemanly and just better for the league overall. Might be a short-term for you but will be a long-term negative. I say pass and come by it honestly!

1:38

Down by the River Ryan: Do you think we get more than 2 more starts out of River Ryan? Should I prep to find someone to replace him once he inevitably gets sent down?

1:38

Paul Sporer: Be prepared to replace him but DO NOT cut him until it’s CLEAR he is gonna be out. He is just too good to try and be preemptive and possibly get merked bc someone else gets hurt and then he stays only to get picked up by someone else

1:39

Paul Sporer: (out of the rotation that is, he isn’t hurt… just so we don’t scare anyone)

1:39

Playoff bound: Can’t figure out whether DeGrom is worth the risk for a team that will make the h2h playoffs, which start in early Sept. Would you move Webb for deGrom in that scenario?

1:41

Paul Sporer: Logan Webb? No. I tend to stand by guys like Webb and Framber even during their lulls bc I feel confident they’ll find it again and they both have. I think sometimes we use today’s trove of data to over-diagnose pitchers and what’s “wrong” w/them after a couple crummy starts. There’s just ups and downs in a season and they aren’t always indicative of trouble (nor are highs always indicative of a step forward)

1:41

tumtum: The scratch last night over Grayson’s Lat, is there every a time you remember where the player isn’t out for months?

1:42

Paul Sporer: No, it’s not good for Baltimore… or fantasy folks

1:42

Guest: If you could be given the world class athletic ability, what Olympic event would you want to compete in?

1:43

Paul Sporer: This is an amazing question. I can’t decide if I want it to just be pure skill like sprinting or something more obscure like an elite fencist (fencer? nah, gotta be fencist!)… I’ll go with speed, I wanna be the fastest man in the world!!

1:43

Big fan of Graphs: Can’t we create a fantasy baseball hall of fame so we can put the steroid users in.
Unlike MLB teams, I think the players should be recognized for the wins they gave me.

1:44

Paul Sporer: Right??? Not only will we not hold it against them, we loooove them for all those amazing numbers!!!

1:44

Chip: James Wood is doing it. A super-size combo meal last night. Looked at a rolling graph of his GB% and it’s falling off a cliff. Dropped him and got him back in a 12-team!

1:45

Paul Sporer: Yeah took a little to get going but he’s been on fire lately — .429/.546/.743 w/2 2B, 3 3B (!), 1 HR, 10 RBI in 44 PA. Ks are gonna be a problem but the talent is monstrous

1:46

Devin Williams: 10.5 M club option for 2025.  Think Brewers pick up the option?

1:46

Paul Sporer: Oh 100%, even if it’s just to trade him.

1:46

Guest: oh good, Joe Ryan serving up the early homer today already. stop there Joe!

1:47

Paul Sporer: What’s the wind doing at Wrigley?!?!

1:50

Skippy: Holderman is not a hold anymore right? Great start to season with HOLDS falling apart as season winds down.

1:52

Paul Sporer: Yeah 5 HRs in 12 app since July is bruuuutal, can’t trust him in leverage so the HDs have dried up

1:53

John John: Is Jobe worth holding onto till mid August or early September or is it just ain’t gonna happen this year?

1:54

Paul Sporer: Kinda depends on league type and who’s available, but I’m OK moving on. I don’t know that they’re gonna give him much of a shot as their rotation has fallen apart and it could be a rough homestretch for Detroit

1:54

Yu Gotta Help!: Darvish still on restricted list.  Hasn’t pitched since 5/29.  Assuming he even comes back will he even be able to build back up in time to perform in fantasy?  Tempted to drop him…out of IL spots.

1:54

Paul Sporer: Yes, I cut 2 wks ago, though in a non-IL league so the decision was a bit easier

1:54

Playoff bound: Thanks for the response. Webb freaks me out because (as of early this week) he has let up more hits than any other starter!

1:55

Paul Sporer: I totally get that. Hits are always his risk as his H9 is kinda high even in the great seasons. Sometimes it’s bad luck and other times he’s a bit off w/his stuff. I’m still trusting Webb fully

1:55

Guest: FGDC RoS gives Xavier a .360 OBP with 30 steals/160 games. can we dream on .375 and 50 next year? him or Arraez in an OBP league?

1:56

Paul Sporer: I’m a big Edwards fan and I think we can certainly dream on that while being able to settle for a good bit lower since his price just won’t be that high barring some crazy finish down the stretch. Arraez is a bankable AVG guy, but I think Edwards is more dynamic of a fantasy component

1:56

seth: for as good as that mens 100M final was, remember that prime usain bolt was running a full 2 tenths faster then all of those guys

1:57

Paul Sporer: Right? He was truly insane. Also old enough to remember Michael Johnson’s excellence

1:57

Ted: Luis Castillo or Bailey Ober ROS?

1:59

Paul Sporer: Ober will be a touch higher on the next update (due next week!)

1:59

Jack: Pete Crow-Armstrong has speed and lately hasn’t appeared to be totally over matched as he was earlier. Do you think he can develop into at least an average hitter?

2:00

Paul Sporer: It’s certainly possible and his elite glove will afford him many chances to develop into a viable hitter

2:00

B’Ryce Hammer, Smasher of Baseballs: Kikuchi with Houston… is this like when the Astros traded for Verlander and fixed what the Tigers had done wrong?

2:01

Paul Sporer: Not sure I agree w/that framing that the Tigers were doing anything wrong to JV. They made him better but he was 34 yrs old, he wasn’t some rookie being bullied by an organization. But yeah, they seem to have a gameplan ready for Kikuchi to maximize the good stuff we’ve all known him to have for years

2:05

Mark: Is Wallner a must-roster a 12-team OBP league? I know he sits against lefties but he’s absolutely mashing righties

2:06

Paul Sporer: Definitely worth riding right now. Platoon bats can be tough holds when they cool, but I love Wallner so I’m totally chill running him in 12s right now, especially w/the OBP factor

2:06

Kris Bubic: Worth a $1 dart in AL-Only keeper? I’m out of it this years and was a fan before he got hurt. Think he’s a relevant arm next year?

2:06

Paul Sporer: Yeah, take the buck shot

2:06

Brayan Rocchio: Lost cause?

2:06

Paul Sporer: Waayyy too early to say that, but expectations aren’t SKY HIGH. I’ve always liked him more as a real life player w/the defensive component

2:06

burt: Mayo was dropped in my 12 tm league. Think he can help out this year? (redraft h2h)

2:06

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’d take the shot

2:06

Adenolith: Is Heliot Ramos a guy you’d pick up over somebody like Toglia, Ward, or Turang?

2:08

Paul Sporer: Turang’s his own thing if you need the SBs, otherwise I would go Ramos over Toglia/Ward. It’s not overwhelming, but Ramos is my pick

2:08

Mackenzie Gore: I need serious help. When will I be right again?

2:08

Paul Sporer: I’m not so sure he will. Just not himself at ALLL right now. A cut everywhere, incl. NL Only

2:08

burt: it seems like jose miranda is slowly morphing into a part time player with Royce lewis back. Will the twins really leave his bat on the bench half the time?!

2:09

Paul Sporer: He’s still played 7 of 10 since the injury. But yeah they are in a good spot talent-wise but that creates a crunch for us fantasy dweebs!

2:10

Guest: Is there too much noise in baseball to consider quality of competition / strength of schedule when considering performance? Like, “his aggregate opponent ERA is 1.40, hence the underperformance.”

2:11

Paul Sporer: I think it can color the performance in a given season for sure. We don’t always dig into it, but then sometimes you’re wondering why a pitcher is struggling and then you see like 8 of his last 12 are against top 6 OPS teams or something, so I don’t think it’s completely frivolous. You can’t control the schedule, but it does have an impact

2:11

Drew: just saw the Joyce reply: 16-team, draft and hold, SVs and Holds seperate. 25 major; 25 minor.

2:13

Paul Sporer: Should be able to wrangle a backend top 100 prospect, I’d think. The Holds help and hurt. It gives him a performance floor, but also makes his SVs less worthwhile if he becomes a stud closer like many of us think he can. I think you’re def getting a name prospect in return

2:13

Jason Foley: Your boy has had some (brief) stretches where he’s looked really great but when it’s been bad, it’s been baaaaaad. What are your thoughts on this guy – fantasy wise and real life?

2:15

Paul Sporer: Seems like it’s really hard to command that sinker and so he’s just really inconsistent after that start. Even when he was cooking in April and was a must-pickup closer, his skills didn’t scream stud closer. He’s a solid reliever, but run of the mill as a closer at best

2:15

Joe Morgan: OBP league: keep Spencer Horwitz or drop for one of Brendan Rodgers/Addison Barger/Connor Wong/Jonah Bride

2:15

Paul Sporer: I’m keeping Horwitz. BIG fan of his game!

2:15

Former Top prospect: Do you buy the Gavix Lux July blow up?

2:17

Paul Sporer: To a degree. I’m a Lux homer so lemme get that bias on the table… I think it’s worthy of attention making him a must in 15s and rosterable in 12s or lower depending on need. He was enjoying that 3-spot in the lineup but moved down w/Freeman back and will move again when Mookie returns.

2:17

Dave Roberts: Worth hanging on to Bobby Miller in a keeper league? He’d cost me $11 to roster next season and is definitely worth that if healthy/right but, well…

2:17

Paul Sporer: Yes I’d hold in keeper. I quit him this year but def not out forever

2:18

Adenolith: Is there any place to easily see the handedness for pitching matchups at the start of a week? Joc is sitting as a FA in our h2h league and I think it’s mostly because it’s tough to predict when he’ll be playing enough.

2:18

Paul Sporer: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/probables-grid You can check the probables for ARI opponents to see how many lefties are coming

2:19

Guru: Hey Paul, thanks for the chat.  Is the Vinnie P breakout finally starting to happen.  The last week has been everything we dreamed of.  Thanks.

2:19

Paul Sporer: He’s absolutely been an RBI machine this year, too!

2:19

Adenolith: Curious your thoughts on Crochet. Worth getting anything I can for him at this point? Hunter Brown may be on the table.

2:19

Paul Sporer: I’d take Brown for rest of the season just for Ws upside

2:20

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Thanks so much for coming out. Back next wk w/a new SP ranking for us to discuss!





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

3 Comments
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Anon
3 months ago

re: Joc and the upcoming schedule – FG needs a reverse Probables grid that shows all the upcoming pitchers that a team’s hitters is going to be facing. So if you view the row with for the DBacks to see if Joc is streamable, you’d see everyone they are set to face over the next 10 days.

With the current Probables page, all you see is who the DBacks are starting themselves and you have to hunt through the board to see who they are going to face.

You already have all the data in place for the Probables grid, should be easy to create a slightly different one that rearranges it like that

Last edited 3 months ago by Anon
post1958Member since 2017
3 months ago
Reply to  Anon

Rotowire has that for the next 14 days under the daily lineups dropdown on their fantasy baseball page. I think it’s free, but I’m not sure, as I’m a subscriber.

Last edited 3 months ago by post1958