Starting Pitcher Chart – August 8th, 2024
- Daily SP Chart archive
- Check out the July SP Rankings (NEWish!)
Holy crap, what a brutal board. There are some intriguing arms outside of the 3 x-ers but they almost all have a rough matchup. I know the opponents Ortiz and Morton are facing haven’t been strong of late, but they still scare me enough to be leery with either of them. I was impressed that Ortiz stemmed the tide after a 5 ER first inning to still go 5.3 IP with 6 ER. Still a bad outing, but those extra innings are so key in blowups. Outside of Ortiz, that group of 1 x-ers are straight up WHIP killers and you have to start being very mindful of your ratios as we enter the home stretch.
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| RK | PITCHER | GAME | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K-BB | wOBA RK L30/Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hunter Greene | CIN at MIA | x | x | x | 130 | 2.83 | 1.02 | 19% | 12th/28th |
| 2 | Bryan Woo | SEA v DET | x | x | x | 60 | 2.08 | 0.87 | 16% | 17th/27th |
| 3 | Nestor Cortes | NYY v LAA | x | x | x | 129 | 4.16 | 1.20 | 18% | 30th/21st |
| 4 | Kevin Gausman | TOR v BAL | x | 124 | 4.56 | 1.30 | 16% | 10th/3rd | ||
| 5 | Dean Kremer | BAL at TOR | x | 80 | 4.39 | 1.25 | 13% | 15th/14th | ||
| 6 | Shane Baz | TBR at STL | x | 25 | 3.60 | 1.40 | 13% | 14th/12th | ||
| 7 | Kyle Harrison | SFG at WSN | x | 101 | 4.09 | 1.30 | 14% | 14th/27th | ||
| 8 | Luis L. Ortiz | PIT v SDP | x | 84 | 3.21 | 1.18 | 11% | 21st/6th | ||
| 9 | Charlie Morton | ATL v MIL | x | 112 | 3.94 | 1.25 | 14% | 27th/8th | ||
| 10 | Kyle Gibson | STL v TBR | x | 120 | 4.04 | 1.31 | 12% | 25th/26th | ||
| 11 | Tyler Anderson | LAA at NYY | 135 | 3.05 | 1.17 | 9% | 11th/16th | |||
| 12 | DJ Herz | WSN v SFG | 46 | 4.27 | 1.25 | 23% | 7th/5th | |||
| 13 | David Peterson | NYM at COL | 59 | 3.47 | 1.42 | 8% | 28th/23rd | |||
| 14 | Jordan Montgomery | ARI v PHI | 77 | 6.37 | 1.66 | 6% | 3rd/1st | |||
| 15 | Kenta Maeda | DET at SEA | 80 | 6.75 | 1.50 | 11% | 13th/22nd | |||
| 16 | Randy Vásquez | SDP at PIT | 76 | 4.62 | 1.53 | 9% | 19th/29th | |||
| 17 | Frankie Montas | MIL at ATL | 98 | 5.03 | 1.45 | 10% | 18th/18th | |||
| 18 | Austin Gomber | COL v NYM | 116 | 4.66 | 1.29 | 12% | 12th/4th | |||
| 19 | Kolby Allard | PHI at ARI | 8 | 4.50 | 1.25 | 9% | 9th/3rd | |||
| 20 | Kyle Tyler | MIA v CIN | 27 | 5.27 | 1.76 | 5% | 5th/17th |
The chart includes their 2024 stats (this changed over from last year’s stats on April 22nd), their opponent’s wOBA rank versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this is changed as of April 11th) and over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but that just means it is a riskier stream as the league gets shallower.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto and then you can generally expand these recommendations a bit for points leagues.
Love my Deano—but its been a real rough stretch….optimisitic?
Enough optimism for deeper lgs, especially if you’re Wins chasing. I think we can get a baseline QS or even 6 IP/4 ER which isn’t a great ERA, but if it comes w/a W and 4-6 Ks, then we’re good w/that
Why so low on DJ Herz?
I’m sure Paul will answer but the Giants have crushed LH pitching this year. Even their LH hitters have done well against lefties this year.
I’ve streamed him a couple times and he’s been great, but I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop on his control. He walked a lot of guys in the minors but cut wayyyy back on it once he got to the majors. Maybe it’s real but I keep waiting for it to pop back up.
Also, I assume Paul doesn’t factor this in but if you are in a QS league, he is a poor bet to go 6 IP. He has only once thrown more than 92 pitches and has been under 80 pitches in 6 of his 10 starts. And it almost doesn’t matter how he’s pitching – he’s been yanked from his last 3 starts after 5 IP and under 80 pitches even though he was pitching well in all of them. (I do note that is probably because his numbers the 3rd time through are brutal at .556/.600/1.056 over 21 PA so far.)
Finally, I assume this is also not a consideration except in DFS but the Nats/Giants game has some serious weather risks.
On top of all of that, his MLB strike-throwing looks like a complete outlier to his past performance. Herz ran a BB/9 under 5 once in the minors, and that was a 3-start sample size in High-A three years ago. Combine that with his high fly-ball rate and his awful contact quality numbers, and he looks like a candidate for sharp regression.
yeah gotta hat-tip EON here, he nails all of my concerns w/Herz and why I didn’t feel great for today
Paul called it!!
As if to demonstrate, Herz walked 3 in a 39 pitch 1st inning and luckily escaped with only 1 run. As I’m typing this, he just walked a 4th batter and is at 54 pitches with 2 outs in the 2nd. Forget 6 IP, he isn’t going 4 IP today now
Plus they are now in a weather delay, so you nailed the hat trick! I’d throw my hat onto the ice if I was near a rink.