Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – August 5th, 2026

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!!!

yochuckie: Starting Harrison 1st time out v Pittsburgh?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m running him! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-chart-august-5th-2026/

MD: I’m usually on the “ignore until at least a half season after TJS” train, but from a position of really needing SP right now down the stretch, any optimism for Jobe? Montgomery?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m much more open to these off the wire. I want nothing to do w/TJ returners at the draft table, but the “any port in a storm” nature of the season leads me to looking at them much more closely as waiver pickups. IP usage out of the gate is a concern and then the start-to-start volatility that we see with TJ returners is as well. Now they can outrun it in a shorter sample like Bradish last yr and then we saw his struggles this year. Jobe higher upside w/his swing & miss potential but I could also so 3-4 IP outings outta him initially whereas Monty will likely be allowed to go 5-6 off rip assuming he isn’t running up huge pitch counts

getwonkafied: Any point in trying to buy low on Vlad? Offered my $5 Willson Contreras for $40 Vlad

Paul Sporer: For a keeper/dynasty? Yes. For this year only, I wouldn’t necessarily chase.

Jon Tayler: Hi Paul! How much leash should I be giving Cal Raleigh at this point? I’m in first in my league (OBP roto), so I can afford to be patient, but it’s starting to feel like this is a lost season for him. Would you cut ties for either of Yainer Diaz or Francisco Alvarez?

Paul Sporer: I know holding 2 Cs in a 1-C league stinks, but maybe that’s the path in the short term just in case Cal finds something and then if it’s still this lost season vibe (I agree w/you, btw) in another ~2 wks, you dump him and either keep your waiver pickup or stream until you find a steady option

Paul Sporer: Between the 2 mentioned, I’d go for Alvarez

MD: What to think of the conundrum that is Michael King? Easy to quantify on FGPoints Ottoneu, but of last 10 starts, 4/10 have been 30+ points (Avg ~39/start), the other 6 average ~9/start. Highs and lows, not much mediocrity

Paul Sporer: The drop in Ks and jump in BB speak to some command and control inconsistency that we’re seeing in the numbers you mentioned. The bottom line is still good but it’s hard to feel confident about any single start bc when he’s off, any team can clip him

metfanben: Who’s the closer in MN now? Split or does Hoffman run with it?

Paul Sporer: I think still a share with Hoffman as the A-guy. I can see them opening a path for Hoff to be THE GUY if he can get that BABIP in order and start stranding some runners

yochuckie: Thoughts on Painter? Can he be fixed, i.e. Miz, or is he even fixable? He’s 23 I get it but so was Forrest Whitley.

Paul Sporer: This is a pure vibes take but that Forrest Whitley shout feels eerilyyyy accurate! I don’t have a 1:1 breakdown on their pitches or stats, just from a prospect vibe where maybe we stick on the Painter train a bit longer than necessary bc of his pedigree. That is part of sticking w/prospect pedigree, though, it will burn you at times. Age is about the only thing I can lean for sticking w/Painter but I’d say next year is a real pivot point for him even at just age-24

Peter Castro: Hi Paul – What are your thoughts on The magician Valdez in Pittsburgh for next season. Is there a good comp for him?

Paul Sporer: Aristides Aquino?

Paul Sporer: I do hope he’s more legit than AA but 36% K will breed extremely volatility. We’ve seen guys start succeeding more at 30% K when they smash the piss outta the ball and take BB, both of which Esmerlyn does, buuuttt 36% K is still a big concern for me.

bkgeneral: IS Sean Burke actually good?

Paul Sporer: I’d say so. Remember, this started a bit last yr with skills poking through despite mediocre ratio results: 21% K-BB in his L8, but mitigated by a 1.9 HR9 that left him with a 4.32 ERA and too many H/BB pushed his WHIP to 1.54 in that time. This year, he kept the Ks going while dropping his BB to a career best 7%!

jimleylandpalmer: Will I regret cutting Freddy Peralta in a 10 teamer?

Paul Sporer: I really don’t think so

R.B. Urgess: Is this Noah Cameron stretch real or just a blip?

Paul Sporer: Even in this midst of good run, he’s still mixing in Duds, so I think he’s just a #4 right now with runs where he can look like a 3 for weeks at a time

Paul Sporer: Perhaps he can develop into that more consistent mid-rotation arm. Hell, we saw 24 great starts last yr where he had the results of a #2-3 SP (though the skills of a 4, hence his slide back this year)

bdubs: Alvarez, Jeffers, Salvy, Jensen, Mack ROS?

Paul Sporer: Jeffers my #1 there w/a bit of a lead then Salvy, Alvy, Jensen, Mack

riceball: is Yordan going to have an ADP south of 5 next season?

Paul Sporer: Assuming no injury rest of way, yes

yochuckie: Cody Bradford more than a dart throw? It’s not ideal but it’s getting late early out there.

Paul Sporer: In the same vibe as the earlier question about TJ returners. Muuuch more open to taking the shot in season than at the draft table. So ya, I’d be down to take a shot in a deeper league. Eager to see how Bradford looks today

Ropeia: Do you think Moises Ballesteros is worth a pickup in a 10 team OBP league? The angels have to start him, right? They won’t break him?

Paul Sporer: Did his 8 games at C make eligible? If not, it’s UT only and I don’t see the avenue for 10s year. I don’t mind speculating in 15s and deeper as I agree that LAA should just turn him loose, but 10 team isn’t on the table for me yet

ankoalec: Not a fantasy question at ALL but Melton 2027 Cy Young Winner is inevitable right?

Paul Sporer: One of my absolute faves. His injury is the ONLY reason he’s not on every one of my teams. I was so amped for him this year!!

Paul Sporer: I will remain amped next year, but the premium price tag is comin

The K-Man: are we able to stop pretending Corbin Carroll is a borderline 1st round pick in 2027 if he can’t top Ceddane Rafaela or Randy Arozarena on the stat board?

Paul Sporer: Only if you can stop pretending it’s been more than approx. a month of bad work. First 75 gms was 922 OPS and 30 HR/20 SB pace. He’s been awful since admittedly (567 OPS, 14/28 pace) but if pulls out of it and gets back to the Carroll we know, he is a borderline 1st rounder. Just bc he hasn’t beaten Ceddanne and Arozarena this year (2 very good players!) doesn’t mean he isn’t a potential 1st rounder next yr. He’s reached MUCH higher heights than both and is 6 yrs younger than Randy (so is Ceddanne, both 25).

ajstopes: Do you like Lawlar when he comes back? More than Eugenio Suarez, Willi Castro?

Paul Sporer: Nah, I’d prob stick w/Willi

Hornerfan: Do you expect Luke Weaver to get the majority of save chances in Pittsburgh now?  Also, I have to keep the faith in Edwin Diaz now that he’s back from the IL, right?

Paul Sporer: Yes on Edwin for sure. As for Weaver, I’d say it’s an elevated version of the Hoffman MIN situation I outlined earlier where Weaver’s the A-option with a chance to be come the unquestioned* guy if he just runs with it. I say elevated bc I like Weaver a bit more than Hoff.

*except if there’s 2-3 lefties in the 9th, then Soto/Monty

miratutti: Will Webb and Zeferjahn both carry decent value going forward in SV+H leagues?

Paul Sporer: Yes, though Webb could get pushed up the pen a bit when Palencia gets back and then Zefer & Palencia would be the 1-2 punch. The BB are a bit unruly but I love what I’ve seen from Zefer this year. If he can get closer to 10-11% instead of 14%, he could take off!

cjbaseball16: Woo for wilyer Abreu seem fair in 12 TM AL roto?

Paul Sporer: Totally!

cjbaseball16: Bradish for Caballero and Baz a fair offer in al roto?

Paul Sporer: Also fair. Prefer the first deal if you’re chasing hitting, but both are fine

miratutti: Who will have a better first trial vs mlb pitching: Genao or Lombard?

Paul Sporer: Lombo. Not just bc he went yard last night, but just bc he’s a good shade better than Genao for me

Toonces: Hello Paul. I’m in trade talks right now. I need OBP and will trade Okamoto and C. Scott for Arozarena and a choice of Wrobleski, Nick Martinez or Jax. Who would you take???

Paul Sporer: I’d grab Wrobo! He was running hot early in the year w/that paltry K% and it seemed like smoke & mirrors, but lately we’ve seen the skills surge. Even w/12 ER in the last 2 starts, he has a 25% K-BB over his L5 making me worry less about the 4.99 ERA he’s had in that time.

Rhetoric Flair: Do you think Hoffman is automatically the guy in Minnesota>

Paul Sporer: Scroll up! (Or Ctrl-F Hoffman to see our earlier discussion on him!)

The K-Man: Thanks for talking me off the Corbin ledge. Just his worst month of career save a slow start in 2024.

Paul Sporer: No prob. It’s been undeniably bad and he’s had some injury history that makes me wonder if he’s grinding through something, but even if he’s just solid the rest of the way (upper 700s OPS w/nice HR-SB), I can still see him having 1st round juice next year. He’s an elite fantasy player!

Jor Algenson: is there a bleak outlook on JWood’s ROS potential

Paul Sporer: Obliques suck! It is being termed “mild” so hopefully that’s true, but we know not to take these early diagnoses as gospel. I wouldn’t cut him anywhere yet or anything, but this could eat up a lotttt of the remainder of the season

Salty: Paul – thanks to you and the other FG members for the weekly chats.  It’s great to broaden the thinking/strategy with such great questions from the subscribers.  How are you doing in your leagues?  Anything in the running in the NFBCs if you participated?

Paul Sporer: No prob! Love doing the chats. I’m firmly in the mix in all my NFBC’s this year! Got a couple Draft Champions competing in the Top 3, Main Event is 5th with plenty of avenues to cash and a Hail Mary path at running down 1st, and then my Online Championship, EARTH, and TGFBI leagues are all 4th right now with paths to the top!

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, gotta cut right at 2 here, but thanks so much for coming out! Back next week with more!!!