Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – August 2nd, 2023

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, thanks for coming out!!

Hank Scorpio: Would you consider trading my W. Smith (closer) for their D. German fair value, or should I be looking for better than a mid-60s arm based on your rankings? I have Hader + Duran otherwise, so no problem offloading Smith and his fluid bullpen situation

Paul Sporer: I think that’s fair. You might be able to shop higher, but if you’re comfortable w/German, it works. He’s always got that HR risk, but the upside is still strong when he’s on

Hank Scorpio: Hey Paul, thanks as always for the chat. 12tm 6×6 roto. I have a trade on the table currently: my Schwarber/Monty for their Cease/Teoscar. The other team is asking for F. Peralta instead of Monty, but I think it works as is and it becomes too like for like. What are your thoughts in either direction? I can afford to give up Schwarber since I have Muncy, I was just really hoping Teoscar got moved yesterday to no avail. Need Avg, RBI, R, XBH on offense; pretty much everything in pitching

Paul Sporer: Totally agree re: it becoming pointless to shift Monty to Peralta with respect to Ks specifically

Sam: Is it time to drop Springer? 10 man h2h 5×5 league, other options include Muncy, Kwan, B Lowe

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m fine cutting in 10s for sure

Guest: Will we see Colt Keith in the majors in 2023 and will he be a fantasy difference-maker?

Paul Sporer: Maaaybe but he isn’t exactly forcing his way up in AAA

Ethan Salas: No question, just wanted to stop by and say that I’m going to be the greatest catcher of all time by age 19

Paul Sporer: Yesss

DoubleDong: Any low-ish owned guys that you feel will breakout in the 2nd half?

Paul Sporer: Gimme some names you’re eyeing!

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Just snagged Tim Anderson of waivers in my 12-team. He’s actually been hitting well. Should he be starting over Correa?

Paul Sporer: I’m fine starting TA over Correa if you think TA is gonna be himself down the stretch. I tried to scoop him in a league, too, and got nipped by a couple bucks

Guest: 5×5 roto 10 team    Is it better when trying to improve BA to not just fill a roster with your lesser talented hitters? Or is it better to get as many bodies into the lineup. I’m talking ROS. thx

Paul Sporer: You gotta take some shots. It’s hard to fix AVG, but it can certainly happen late and too many give up on the category. But you will need some quality volume to really surge up the standings, so try & play some hot hands, but don’t pivot off someone after a single 0-for-4

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Will Pham get regular starts in ARI? Or is he droppable (he’s a bench bat for me)?

Paul Sporer: Doubt he plays daily. We discuss on the pod out later today. In 12s and lower you cannn drop, but I’d hold a week just to see what the PT looks like. Maybe he takes a spot and then Gurriel/McCarthy straight up platoon

RAH: How long of a leash do you give Lance Lynn to figure things out in LA? Context: deep dynasty, where waiver wire replacement would likely be a SP eligible reliever, hoping for strong ratios albeit from fewer innings.

Paul Sporer: I wanna see 3-5 starts. Can you reserve him? Unless he’s just awful, I’m unlikely to cut

Paul: Is Gabriel Arias worth a pick up in a 12-team H2H league?  He’s been a regular as SS with almost every conceivable eligibility on CBS Sports.  Been playing well since the Rosario trade.  thanks!

Paul Sporer: Some hits are falling, but I don’t really see enough fantasy juice for 12s

Justin: 20 team dynasty league – total rebuild.  Which of these pitchers are worth keeping:  Ober, Wells, Olson, Sandoval, Paxton……or none….thanks Paul!

Paul Sporer: Ober, Wells, and Olson. Keep tabs on Sandoval, too. Paxton probably not at his age & health profile

Cory: 5×5 roto, 10 team keeper league, would you trade 2 years of Bailey Ober for 2 months of Dylan Cease?

Paul Sporer: No

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: F.Alvarez or William Contreras ROS? Is it merely dependent on whether I need dingers or a well-balanced offensive output?

Paul Sporer: 100%

gadawg57: I thought the Mariners would off-load Teoscar H. so I took a stab at Canzone. Does Canzone have value in a 12-team points league the rest of the way? I have to drop him or Jordan Walker.

Paul Sporer: Good gamble, just didn’t pay off. I’d move on. Could be a strong side platoon, but even then that’s just not enough for a 12

Justin: Follow up question – in the 20 team dynasty league is Jordan Beck enough of a return for Paxton or should I try to get more.  Thanks so much!

Paul Sporer: I’d take a Jordan Beck-like pitcher not in Colorado’s system, but if that’s the best you’re offered I’m good with it

Cory: Do you see any hope in Edward Cabrera?  Wondering if he’s still hurt…

Paul Sporer: Long term, sure bc it’s a high upside arm but I’m only keeping tabs from afar

Pedro: Paul, any chance Brash gets into the closer mix for Ms? Thanks in advance.

Paul Sporer: He probably ascends to the Muñoz role, so occasional SVs, but Sewald had 21 of 26 SVs

Geoff: Best bet to return value ROS in H2H – Rodon / Fried / Woodruff?

Paul Sporer: Probably B Woody for me. Looking sharp in rehab which isn’t always indicative, but I’m big on him still

Felipe: Time to trade Trea Turner?  Thinking of acquiring someone cheaper like Wander and maybe cutting Trea.

Paul Sporer: Can’t cut him, but if someone will take him for Wander, I’d be down. Probably not a great time to trade him, though, value is lowest it’s been in sooo long

Justin: Are L Urias or Bae worth keeping in a dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: Fringe, probably better prospects to take a shot on

Rodon: What would you do with Rodon? Going to be tough to trade him even at a cost of $16 next year. Any underlying metrics that suggest a glimmer of hope as he works his way back? Thanks

Paul Sporer: I’m being patient. It’s still early. Worth reserving, but too good to cut off 3 bad starts in a 5-start run

TJ: Hi Paul!  Thoughts on Rodon ROS? Can he find his touch enough to produce like an Ace down the stretch?  Thx sir

Paul Sporer: Meant to post both Rodon Qs back to back before answering… my b

Middle Men: Gleyber, Semien, or Altuve (OBP league)?

Paul Sporer: Semien

Heaney: I chickened out at the last minute and sat Heaney yesterday. Gets Oakland next. Is he gaining trustworthiness?

Paul Sporer: Gotta go v. OAK. Any SP you have that can’t start v. OAK should be cut

Catcher: Any one or two favorite catchers for AL OBP: Langeliers, Kirk, Varsho, Salvy, Melendez, Bethancourt?

Paul Sporer: Varsho, Perez, Kirk, Langeliers, Kirk, Melendez, Bethancourt

Justin: What are your thoughts on Luis Medina?  He has looked good lately but does not really seem to have any prospect hype.

Paul Sporer: Slider surge is impressive, netting a strong 27 Ks in 22 IP over his L4 outings (22) IP including a home-and-home with Boston, trip to Coors, and home v. HOU. Love the arm and there is upside, but Win probability is virtually nonexistent and I still worry about the walks keeping the WHIP up. I can see taking a shot on the occasional stream or acquiring in dynasty, but it’s hard to get much out of OAK SPs even when they’re pitching well

Jon: Singer has 19 K’s in his last 2 starts, has there been a change in his pitch mix? What SP could I get for Trae Turner that has a double digit K rate?

Paul Sporer: Also a slider surge! Usage up 7 pts to 49% as well as a 3 pt jump in changeup usage, all coming from that ugly fastball

Mr. Freeze: Al OBP. Could you rank these keepers: Kwan ($1), Josh Lowe ($10), Duran ($12)?

Paul Sporer: Lowe, Kwan, Duran (Duran’s been great, but not 11 bucks more than Kwan). Lowe is a power-speed gamechanger in AL, so he’s easily #1

Trey: Grade the 2 trades I made today (10 team 5×5 OPS instead of avg). Sent: Justin Turner, Received: Pablo Lopez. Sent: EDLC and Civale, Received: Verlander and Stanton

Paul Sporer: Big infusion of pitching! As long as you can eat the SB loss from EDLC, I can get behind the moves

Guest: Will Tyler Stephenson retain catcher eligibility next year? Thanks

Paul Sporer: You mean 20+ games in 2024 so he’s eligible in 2025?

Paul Sporer: Bc he’s already qualified for 2024

MochiBetts: Hey Paul, just curious to hear your breakdown of you finding out that E-Rod exercised his no trade clause live with PitcherList and how it compares to Lisa breaking Ralph Wiggums heart live on television.

Paul Sporer: lolololol I respect E-Rod’s decision, but man that was tough! Bart Simpson can def do a frame by frame breakdown of my heart breaking

Jonny J: How do you value Esteruy Ruiz in a dynasty OBP league

Paul Sporer: Modestly… just not a huge fan of the one-note speedsters, especially long-term

Packages: I’ve got a trade tee’d up but am waiting to hear a response to a better offer with another manager. Any advice on how long you wait? I’ve got a zero on the roster until I execute this move…

Paul Sporer: I’d be wanting to act pretty quickly, tbh. Not gonna nag the other manager or anything, but I’d have some urgency

Stringer Bell: Which player on a new team do you like more ROS? Pham or Burger?

Paul Sporer: Pham

Farhandrew Zaidman: Muncy’s fully healthy, rocking a sub .200 BA but an OPS+ of 118. Is this just sorta who he is?

Paul Sporer: I still think he’s better than the .182 BABIP we’re seeing, but the HR-R-RBI are all there so even if he’s closer to this BABIP & AVG than his career .248 and .226 in those categories, he’s rosterable in tons of spots

Paul Sporer: I can see a point relatively soon where a team in a 10- or 12-teamer is power loaded but desperately needs to start chasing AVG so they have to cut Muncy if they can’t trade him, but there’ll be someone in virtually any league that can use the power production

Kevin: Thoughts on Luis Urias in Boston? Think he can contribute meaningful fantasy value down the stretch?

Paul Sporer: Is he coming up soon? Tough part is NONE of Chang, Arroyo, Reyes, Refsnyder have options so unless they wanna DFA someone, he might not be up for a little.

Paul Sporer: I don’t see how Pablo Reyes needs to stay on the roster over Urias, though, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see that switch soon

Guardians: Re: Arias – They’re starting Rocchio today, who is a more interesting prospect. Think he gets enough run in a deep league to be worth picking up?

Paul Sporer: I can see Rocchio bringing some 15-team intrigue, he has 19 SBs this yr and could be an SB asset if he gets on base consistently

Middle Men Part 2: J. Polanco, Ed. Julien, Ez. Duran (OBP league)?

Paul Sporer: Julien, Duran, Polanco with a decent split between Duran and Polanco

Ramp: 12 Team Keeper. I was just offered Tatis Jr. for Kirby. In a vacuum, which side would you rather have?

Paul Sporer: Generally prefer the hitter in 1-for-1s like this

Eric: I have had Trea Turner all year, should I trade for a bit less than his first round value or hold onto him in hopes he becomes the Trea Turner from years past?

Paul Sporer: If you can get a 2nd-4th round type you think can be a 1st rounder in a given year, then I don’t hate it, but I’m trying to be patient w/him

Insert Witty Name Here: When was the last time you had Big League Chew?

Paul Sporer: Like 2 weeks ago. I impulse buy it sometimes in the summer lol

Vlad K.: Hey Paul, thanks for the chats!

Paul Sporer: You’re welcome, thanks for coming out!

Mr. Fister: I’ve been wondering this for a while.  What determines defensive indifference on a SB attempt?  Score? Whether the catcher throws or feints a throw?  Ohtani just took 2nd and 3rd on consecutive pitches, down 11-4, and on the first steal, the catcher faked a throw and then put the ball in his pocket.  Still ruled as indifference…..I’m confused.  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’m kinda confused by it, too. It seems score is the primary indicator and that might supersede everything

Guest: Thoughts on Liover Peguero? Is he playable in 12 team league?

Paul Sporer: Not yet, no.

Paul Sporer: Too many Ks and not enough fantasy heat

Smelly Jack: Ryan Yarbrough or Lance Lynn:  Who’s gonna put up the best numbers for LAD ros?

Paul Sporer: Lynn

PSA: Didn’t realize how crazy the home/road splits were on Burger…yikes

Paul Sporer: Yeah big time splits! And definitely heading to a worse park. Has big boy power, but there is some risk of a fall off

chris: worth dropping skubal to speculate on a eury perez return?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think I would. Skubal is building up and should be able to get 5+ down the stretch

Jack off all trades: Mets just out here buying prospects.  $$$

Paul Sporer: They had a really impressive deadline all things considered

Paul Sporer: I mean I guess it’s not “impressive” to just spend money, but it was a smart maneuvering that some teams refuse to do even when they’re stuck

Jack off all trades: One could argue the Mets had an awful trade deadline simply because they were sellers after spending half a billion dollars on the team in the offseason…..just sayin’.  But yeah, all things considered, I get it.

Paul Sporer: Yes the ATC was doing ALLLLL the work there

Paul Sporer: Because it’s comically embarrassing that they were sellers, but they embraced it and set themselves up well which deserves some credit IMO

Jack off all trades: Helps to have an owner that wipes his behind with hundred dollar bills…..

Paul Sporer: No doubt

Paul Sporer: But most do

Paul Sporer: I realize he’s the richest and it is different, but it’s not like the other owners can’t scratch 2 nickels together as they pretend

sean: Who won this trade? Bregman, yandy, grayson, and correa for Bautista

Paul Sporer: Hard to say without league context, feels pretty fair on the surface

Paul Sporer: Not every trade has a winner. In fact, I’d say the best trades should have 2 winners. Not trying to be cheesy, but we want to improve our teams, not get one over on leaguemates. A good trade improves both

Jack off all trades: Sherman would have you think he’s homeless until he gets his new ballpark.

Paul Sporer: It’s truly vile. These are luxury items for these dudes and the crying poor is always so tired

Mike: Would you trade McClanahan straight up for Michael Harris in a redraft league? Have Sale/Woodruff (hopefully) coming back and have a surplus of SPs. Hurting in OF.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m definitely fine with that.

Joey: Trying to determine better IL stash: Thairo Estrada or Nestor Cortes. If your hitting and pitching are both strong, who has more upside? Is Estrada a top 100 bat? Cortes top 40 SP?

Paul Sporer: I think I prefer Estrada

Paul Sporer: Lange protest tanking because he wasn’t traded? lol

Paul Sporer: (jk jk… kinda wish he’d have been traded given how hot the market was, but maybe Harris just didn’t see the returns stacking up for a multi-yr RP)

Farhandrew Zaidman: Anyone who faults E-Rod for exercising his contractual right to block a trade is lame. Man wanted to be closer to family, you can’t argue with that.

Paul Sporer: 100%. The BS about it being a commentary on his will to win is gross, too. The idea that every move you make in your livelihood is entirely predicated on winning a World Series is insane. Of course you want to succeed and win, but everyone ranks their priorities differently. He earned the NTC by being a damn good SP and exercised it. I can separate being bummed the Tigers didn’t get some theoretical haul from LAD while also fully respecting E-Rod’s choice!

ScottyB: do you like gilbert on the road? im on the splits page but cant find home/away record

Paul Sporer: No issues with him on the road. Check splits here: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/logan-gilbert/22250/splits?position=…

Tom Henke: Hold up…FTJ for Kirby?

Paul Sporer: Yes the trade was Tatis Jr. for Kirby. I think Kirby has ace upside so I don’t think it’s insane or anything, but the person trading FTJ is selling a bit short. Could almost certainly get Kirby + a decent bat in most cases

Tim: I’m in a 14T H2H dynasty, I have Lux stashed on IL…do you think LA will revisit him at SS next year and how do you like his prospects in general?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I do. I love Lux and was SO excited for a breakout season this yr. I really hope he comes back healthy and ready to rock again.

Jason Adenolith Heyward: Honestly, I want my league-mates to feel like they came out of a trade with a win, but I don’t ACTUALLY want that for them because I want to pull away from everybody not pull both of us ahead. That being said, a trade that helps both of us is better than not getting the help at all.

Paul Sporer: Yeah I just don’t want to be seen as the shady trader or anything. Winning deals isn’t shady, but trying to get over on ppl constantly gets around a league quickly. Totally hear you about not really wanting your trade partner to exactly pop off after the deal, but I don’t mind if the players I give them do well so they don’t have a sour outlook on trading w/me

Franky Alvarez: Am I going to start playing every day now that the Mets are pivoting to the future? Am I a better ROS C than Tyler Stephenson?

Paul Sporer: I don’t know that he will play a ton more than he currently is, but I don’t mind taking him over T Step, particularly if you need the pop. I’m a big T Step guy and really liked him for the year, but he’s iffy in 1-C leagues right now. Still an easy play in all 2-C leagues, though (ranked 15th this yr)

McBoatface: Would you trade 3 years of Mason Miller for 2 months of Max Scherzer? Realistically only trying to hold on for 2nd place. First place is out of reach

Paul Sporer: I probably would, yes. I don’t have super high hopes for Miller’s future w/his health. Maybe he becomes a stud closer and I can live with that

Buster: Is Carlos Hernandez now a reliable closer?

Paul Sporer: Reliable? Can’t go that far yet, but he’s guy to target IMO

B’ryce Szymbobski: Acuna gonna make 40 bombs?

Paul Sporer: I don’t rule ANYTHING out with him. Just 15 away and has months of 7 and 9 earlier this yr (May/June) so it’s definitely in there. And if he’s within a few over the final 3 wks or so, he will sell out for the pop IMO

Luzing It: It seems like Luzardo is a bit better at home than on the road.  Do you think that’ sactionable at all?

Paul Sporer: Nah, I’m still starting him everywhere. A few duds on the road, but 5 of the 9 on the road have still been good. Most Ps are better at home in general and then he adds a favorable home ballpark so it makes sense

Sad, Confused Marlins Fan: hi Paul. been a while since ive jumped on these chats. but hoping you can help. 2nd year for me in a 12 team dynasty OBP league. how do you gauge trades in dynasty? valuing picks, age of mlb players, etc. sometimes i get trades and i think they are awful but idk if i am reading them right

Paul Sporer: It can be tough to assess them easily compared to redraft league trades. Gotta do your best to assess where you’re at in your contention window which will determine the kind of prospects you’re trading or trading for. The first answer to all trades is “it depends” and that ramps to another level with dynasty trades given the complexity of the context

Jobu asks….: AL only Dynasty league, Jordan Montgomery over Max or JV?

Paul Sporer: Honestly, I think I’d still value the fogies over him.

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram/Threads (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch tomorrow morning and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!