Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – August 28th, 2024

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!

Guest: Would you start Bowden Francis at Boston tomorrow?

Paul Sporer: I would, yes. He’s been so dialed in that I’m giving him a shot in any matchup right now

Jay: Thoughts on DJ Herz?  Seems like he’s got good stuff and generates a lot of K’s.  I think he might be more than just a streamer in a points league.

Paul Sporer: We discussed on today’s pod (out later) and I’m definitely rostering & starting, but there is still risk w/his control issues so be careful

person: is it a short chat today because you have some home runs you still have to allow to the Royals?

Paul Sporer: lol yes!!!

Dave: If the Tigers take one more from the Angels (out of two) and sweep Boston this weekend… do you think they bring up Jobe?

Paul Sporer: I’ve been wondering the same as the Tigers have been playing better of late. I could see him being a Sept. call-up regardless of the team’s success in the next few days. While he is only in Double-A, that doesn’t mean he can’t skip Triple-A and get a few big league starts to close out there year

Guest: Why do projections love Matt Wallner so much when his Z-Contact is like 70%

Paul Sporer: My guess is the power & eye combo being seen as a strong foundation to build upon

person: PCA or Doyle in 2025? still Doyle… but Rockies, right?

Paul Sporer: Still Doyle, yes, but I have been intrigued by PCA’s offensive surge of late. His playing time is locked w/that bananas glove which was the same reason I liked Doyle (well, that and Coors). I don’t know there’s anything PCA could do to leapfrog Doyle for me but they will be closer in rankings than I would’ve thought coming into the season

Daro: Are you starting Bobby Miller vs Bal?

Paul Sporer: Likely league dependent. I’m leaning no even after the gem last time out bc TB really sucks offensively and of course Baltimore very much does not so deep leagues and desperate situations are probably the only spots I’m going for it right now

Spaceman: Playoff time. Better Play Birdsong at Milw. or J. Leiter at White Sox? Also any slant on Criswell at Detr?

Paul Sporer: I’m going Leiter. Milwaukee is too good. Leiter pitching better of late in the minors ahead of this White Sox start

Dan: Do you have any faith in the Patrick Corbin two-step next week in a 5×5 QS 12 team H2H?

Paul Sporer: Faith? No, not really. Howeverrrr, that doesn’t mean there aren’t some spots where his at MIA/at PIT 2-step might have some heat. Just go in eyes wide open. If a 7 ER outing will ruin you, I don’t think you can take a shot on him

person: think Ober cleans up the blowups next year? his first and most recent starts alone have literally added a full run to his ERA (3.05 -> 4.06)

Paul Sporer: Hard to say bc of his HR issue but between the ATL start and 2 KCR duds (including Opening Day), he’s allowed 23 ER in 8.3 IP!!!! His other 22 starts have a 2.75 ERA. Now you can do that for a lot of guys if you remove their 3 worst outings, but it’s wild how starkly different he is between ace-like MOST of the time and then 3 holy crap meltdowns. You will be unsurprised to learn that he allowed 8 HRs in those 3 mega-duds

JG: This a PSA & FYI: Josh Naylor has been terrible over the last two weeks

Paul Sporer: Yeah hitting a cool .100 in his last 50 AB, but that’s OK, I’m still running him everywhere. He should pull through and hopefully get back on track for the final stretch run

Guest: Which teams offenses are you most afraid starting against right now?

Paul Sporer: NYY, BOS, ARI, MIL, PHI, LAD, SDP, and KCR (these aren’t ranked in order)

Dr. Funk: Does Turang have any keeper value at $5 next year in 12 team league with standard $260 budget?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I think 40 SBs is almost always gonna be worth a $5 investment — https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy-tools/player-rater?pos=2B

Scott: Hi Paul. I can’t believe I’m asking this but is it time to drop Julio Rodriguez? It’s a 10 teamer with good options on the wire like Ian Happ, Nick Castellanos, Jake McCarthy, Kerry Carpenter and Heliot Ramos. Jacob Young and PCA for stolen bases (which I need). I’m in the playoffs and might get a bye so I could bench him and hope he gets hot soon.

Andre: Any hopes for Jrod? He’s brutal rostering heading into the playoffs

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Julio Rodriguez has absolutely killed me this season (4th OA). I’m still holding onto 2-3rd place. Is there a young CF with upside that I can target heading into the playoffs?

Paul Sporer: Y’all know I preach patience w/top end players and 5 months is definitely showing patience, so given just how awful he’s been since the break, I do think there are some shallow lg cuts for J-Rod. The key on these sorts of moves is thinking about how you’ll react if he goes off and cooks in September like we’ve seen from Carroll lately — is it gonna make you crazy and uber regretful, possibly hurting your ability to cut guys loose in the future for fear of what could happen or are you truly bought in on the process over results and feel comfortable w/the decision even if he goes off in the final 5 weeks

person: Patrick Corbin could throw perfect games from here on out and I still don’t think he’d find a major league contract in 2025

Paul Sporer: LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

JoJo: How do you see it, Paul, Cooper Criswell at Detr or Sears at TEX?

Paul Sporer: I lean toward Sears. While he did get merked by MIL last time, that was a very skippable start given the opponent so I don’t hold it against him too much. Criswell hasn’t gone 5 in any of his L3 and this upstart Tigers offense (no one age-30 or higher) isn’t a complete walkover

Dave: Lost Contreras to the broken finger and the catching wire seems… rough.  Picking from the likes of Ruiz, Jeffers, Heim, Melendez.  Anybody in that range you like more than others ROS? Stream matchups and hope for the best?

Paul Sporer: I think it’s the latter of streaming and hoping. I lean Melendez or Jeffers off the top of my head w/zero research on that group. I’d probably take a look at the next 2 wks of schedules and see if someone has a markedly better setup that makes them worth prioritizing. Melendez is always nice bc he doesn’t have to actually catch

Ted: Schwellenbach reach set-and-forget status for you yet?

Paul Sporer: He has indeed! Another guy we discussed in detail on the show today and both Justin & I love Schwelly!!

person: if a reliever who struggled in April has a great _ months, then I might buy him in SVH

Paul Sporer: 1?

Paul Sporer: RPs can turn on a time

Paul Sporer: A bad April doesn’t bother me too much

Tim: This feels crazy, but in a redraft league would you cut Adley if you had Y. Diaz, needed the roster spot, and were chasing steals? The guy just has not hit lately.

Paul Sporer: Even as an Adley fannboy, I find this one easier to do than the J-Rod one. I don’t know if there’s an injury or multiple knick-knack injuries that can happen behind the dish, but he’s been brutal since July 1st — .192/.280/.301 w/3 HR in 168 PA. 1-C league, I’m good w/a cut. 2-Cs is tougher but not impossible depending on league depth

Woo-Turang Clan: Has Josh Jung damaged his long term value or are we just seeing expected struggles from injury recovery?

Paul Sporer: Definitely the latter for me. I’d take a discount on him next year

Gary: Would you trade Jasson Dominguez for Xavier Edwards in a dynasty league? The former has major potential, but the latter looks like he could singlehandedly win Stolen Bases most weeks.

Paul Sporer: I think that’s a fair move. Both guys bring things to the table and I do think Dominguez’s pure upside is higher bc of his pop, but Edwards is already producing at the big league level (well not RIGHT now as he’s on the IL)

Paul Sporer: Pardon me for the shorter chat today, y’all, but I had to move a Tuesday appt. to Wednesday. I didn’t wanna skip entirely, though, as we’re so close to the finish line of locking in these titles or money spots. Back next week, take care y’all!!