Ottoneu Hot Right Now: August 28, 2024

The 2024 version of Hot Right Now will typically include three sections:

1. Current Auctions: A closer look at players being auctioned at a high rate.
2. Roster Adds: Analysis of players with high add% changes.
3. Hot Performers: Players with a high P/G or P/IP in recent weeks.

The FanGraphs Ottoneu team plans to run this feature weekly, updating fantasy managers on the biggest movers in Ottoneu leagues with an analysis of how these players could or could not help your roster.

Current Auctions

Jack Leiter – 31 current auctions

Leiter lines up to face the White Sox today, August 28th. It will be his fourth start of the year in as many games. His major league ERA sits at 16.39, but with an xERA of 9.51, the story isn’t that bad. That high differential between ERA and xERA is, in part, thanks to a high .405 BABIP, but it can’t hide a 10.9% BB% which translates to six walks between two starts. There is still a lot of interest in Leiter whose Stuff+ four-seamer and changeup grades are well above average. Unfortunately, the stuff hasn’t translated to success, particularly with the fastball that has been hit for a .393 average. Still, it’s shown flashes of brilliance with an excellent SwStr% of 16.2%. When paired with a changeup that barely gets hit (.200 average) and can induce swinging strikes, Leiter has a decent arsenal. But, his most used secondary, his slider, is grading out as less than average and his cutter is even worse. It will be interesting to see how the Rangers have Leiter approach the White Sox. Maybe they can make some tweaks to Leiter’s usage that will be beneficial. Certainly, Leiter has found something in AAA in his last three starts as he’s walked no more than two batters in each game.

DJ Herz – 26 current auctions

The 12th ranked prospect in the Nationals organization has been great since being recalled from the minors towards the end of July. In that time, starting July 23rd, he has a 2.62 ERA, a K% of 29.2%, a BB% of 10.4%, and opponents are only hitting .197 against him. Certainly, his walk rate could improve, but he’s been able to limit hits with his in-the-zone approach and I’m not sure he should be going in the zone more often. His stuff doesn’t seem to be standout, or even average, and he’s having success with only three pitches, four-seam/changeup/slider. It doesn’t seem like the fantasy pundits are bought in:

“it could disappear as soon as his next start.”

– Nick Pollack

“He’s a 4.00 ERA talent to be streamed against weaker opponents.”

– Jeff Zimmerman

“His overall command falls short of a long-term starter role (though he continues to start in 2024), but Herz’s plus-plus changeup and passable fastball/slider give him leverage-reliever upside.”

– Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice

I’m not going to disagree with the big dogs listed above, but the fact is, Herz is doing it right now and he deserves your attention.

Rece Hinds – 24 current auctions

Stuart Fairchild hits the IL and Hinds gets the call-up. The 23-year-old outfielder will add to the 10 games he’s played in the big leagues so far this season where he’s slashed .316/.350/.868, albeit with a 30% K%, but just look at these wonky stats:

Z-Contact%: 91.7% (85.3% average)

Barrel%: 23.1% (7.8% average)

maxEV: 112.7 MPH

HardHit%: 42.3% (38.7% average)

You can see why managers are rushing to pick up Hinds. This is the type of profile that could boost a player to stardom in a short time or could go 0 for 24 and return to the minor leagues. It would be great to write something like, “Since his last demotion, Hinds cut his K% to down by X amount while in AAA..”, but the truth is that Hinds’ K% in that time sits at 36.2%. Yikes! We’ll need more time and so will Hinds.

Roster Adds

Quinn Mathews – Add% Change (7 Days) – 22.9%

This is a future move as Mathews is still working through AA, though he’s doing it exceptionally well. Through nine starts in AA, the 23-year-old lefty has a 2.41 ERA, a 33.8% K%, and a 7.2% BB%. Things are looking good. In the Cardinals’ recent prospect report, Eric Longenhagen wrote that Mathews:

…reliably throws his fastball for strikes, but it’s a control-over-command approach at present, perhaps evidence that Matthews is throwing with greater effort than in college. Mathews’ changeup is a legit bat-missing offering. It plays very well off his fastball, and his solid arm speed sells the pitch before creating late bottom action on it, which causes it to frequently disappear under bats. He also has two breaking balls; the slider is the sharper of the two, while the curveball projects to be more of a get-me-over strike stealer. Maintaining his recent velocity spike will be crucial in achieving his projected ceiling of a good team’s no. 4/5 starter.

We don’t have minor league velocity reports for Mathews, but we can see from the baseline statistics that he is succeeding in every level he is placed in 2024 and has potential.

Kristian Campbell – Add% Change (7 Days) – 22.8%

The 22-year-old 2B/OF was promoted to AAA in mid-August and has a .348/.400/.652 slash line in that time. The most pertinent portion of the Longenhagen report goes like this:

I don’t think Campbell is going to have a Bondsian OPS forever, but I do buy that there have been meaningful changes here that have unlocked dormant impact power. The “contact-only second baseman makes swing changes and moves to center field” plot summary reads almost exactly like Jarren Duran’s scouting report did when he first broke out in the lower minors.

That sounds great, but take caution as Longenhagen goes on to write:

Campbell’s swing is still so odd and requires such effort that I’d like to see him sustain a high level of performance against upper-level pitching for a little while longer before he moves into the Top 100, but he’s certainly on that trajectory.

Kumar Rocker – Add% Change (7 Days) – 22.6%

It sure is interesting to have Vanderbilt teammates and college sensations Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker in the same “Hot Right Now” post. The two made college baseball into mainstream headline news during their 2019 World Series-winning season. After five starts in AA with an ERA of 0.46, though he did not make it further than 4.2 IP in any start, Rocker has outgrown AA and has been promoted to AAA. Now, in AAA, we’ll get a better sense of Rocker’s trajectory as the Rangers continue to develop him as a starter. There seems to be some possibility Rocker could debut in 2024.

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Hot Performers

Stats reflect the last 14 days for both hitters and pitchers.

Miguel Amaya – (9.0 P/G)

Amaya’s August slash line of .355/.385/.629 is well above his season slash line of .247/.302/.375. Four of his seven home runs have been hit in August and he’s dropped his K% by five points in the month. Some of this has been fueled by a .367 BABIP, and some by an increased launch angle resulting in a higher barrel rate.

Connor Norby – (8.5 P/G)

Norby gets a shot at regular playing time in Miami and O’s fans are wondering why the trade for Trevor Rogers was given the sign-off by the front office. Since joining the Marlins, Norby has cut his K% down by 17% and is slashing .344/.400/.688. He’s playing regularly at 3B for now.

Joe Musgrove – (8.4 P/IP)

Musgrove has been solid in his return from injury and after his first two starts only lasted 4.1 IP, his latest, or third start since his return, lasted 7.0 IP. He’s limiting walks, striking batters out at a higher rate than usual, and pitching for a surging Padres squad.

Osvaldo Bido – (7.5 P/IP)

Bido got a shout-out in Jake Mailhot’s recent “Ottoneu Drip: Finding Under-rostered Pitchers” thanks to his two most recent starts where he only gave up one earned run while striking out a combined 12 batters. He has done that with elevated walk rates, however, so take caution.