Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – April 20th, 2022

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Welcome to my first regular season chat for 2022!!!

JoeG: as a Tigers fan , are you confident JCandy will start hitting ?

Paul Sporer: Yes, far too early to worry. I understand if you move on in 10s and 12s because you don’t have to wait on mid-tier guys like that to come through when the waiver wire has so much to offer. I think this is something I’ve struggled w/in shallower leagues in recent years. Cutting someone doesn’t even mean you don’t believe in the player in those formats, but you gotta get numbers it’s OK to churn through players to get guys performing. Doesn’t mean I’m cutting everyone off 4-5 bad gms, but rotating a few spots on the team is the only way you’ll get in on the breakouts in those formats

Dan: Who is the backup closer for CHW?

Paul Sporer: Probably Kendall Graveman

Ben: Thanks for the chat! In a 12 team roto dynasty league, trying to compete but missing on closers, would you try and trade a strong prospect greene/gore for someone like Romano or swap a waiver wire grab like megill/ Sandoval for someone more midtier?

Paul Sporer: I’d be down to go for Romano, tbh. I think he will be a top 5 guy this year

Alexander: How nervous should I be about Bo Bichette’s slow start?

Paul Sporer: 0%

James B.: Thanks for the chat, Paul! So a LOT of marquee hitters are off to slow starts. Which ones have you the most concerned?

Paul Sporer: None with respect to truly marquee guys. 60 PA is the first threshold for stabilization of key stats (K%) and no one has even reached that (some will today, including Albies who I know from memory has 59 PA). Even then, it doesn’t mean panic mode, but the bottom line is that it’s still REMARKABLY early

Kyle: Any concerns from what you’ve seen from Trevor Rogers?

Paul Sporer: One disaster start, not worried rn

Rodrigo: Do you like Loasiga potentially take over the closer spot from Chapman this year?

Paul Sporer: I do, actually. I think he’s rosterable as-is bc he’s so good, but has that added bonus of possibly becoming the closer down the line

Nate: Drop Gallo, Voit, or Kwan for Franmil Reyes? (someone gave up on him way too early IMO). Points league -1 for K’s so Gallo is killing me but is the home run binge worth the wait?

Paul Sporer: I’d rather Franmil than Gallo. Similar sluggers, but Franmil’s Ks aren’t as bad

Guest: smart to keep Jhoan Duran while MIN figures out who is gonna close? his K% is amazing but he’s giving up a run per inning

Paul Sporer: Yes, I know he allowed some runs in BOS, but hang on. Could have a major role soon and I think at the very least he will improve the ratios w/gobs of Ks

Steve: Are you worried about Julio Urias at all?

Paul Sporer: Not off 2 starts, no. Just not actionable. Velo started ticking back up in the 2nd start. Bottom line w/SPs is that the shortened spring gives them even more leeway on these first few starts, but I’d never make a move on a top 35-40 SP off less than 5-6 starts

B’Ryce Hammer’s Luscious Locks: Pawly! My man! I have a ton of questions that I can’t remember. Thanks for being here anyways!

Paul Sporer: ‘ppreciate you comin out! I’ll be here for at least an hour so drop em in chat if you remember ’em

BD: Who would you drop for Giolito’s return: Nestor, Jon Gray, or Joe Ryan?

Paul Sporer: Maybe look at matchups, but Gray otherwise.

Guest: Welcome to injury season. Is everyone else briefcase’d up or just me?

Paul Sporer: They are starting to pile up!

Cole: When does Espinal become relevant in 12 teamers?

Paul Sporer: Gotta carry a .280ish or better AVG w/double-digit SBs

Chuck: See anything with Espinal in TOR? Need a J. India replacement.

Paul Sporer: Who else is available? He’s playing a lot, but doesn’t move the needle much

James B.: With it still being so early, do you entertain trade offers in leagues at this point? Are you hunting for value via swap or still letting things play out a bit longer?

Paul Sporer: Team dependent for sure. Not averse to doing a deal if the needs match, but I don’t seek many trades this early as I usually want to see things play out w/my team a good bit more

H: Hi Paul, do you think we will see K Hayes’ power rebounds off?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure there’s a ton of power this year as I see it developing ’23 and beyond. My excitement for him this year was related to his SPD and AVG

Chuck: Blackburn or Heaney? I can pick up one.

Paul Sporer: Heaney has shown more over his career and on the markedly better team

AAAA Marvin: How nervous should I be about Gerrit Cole’s slow start?

Paul Sporer: Perhaps a smidge, but unfortunately it’s not actionable bc there’s no shot I’d sit him

Paul Sporer: BRB, gotta let the dogs back in!

Armadillofury: What’s up with Santander’s 22.2% walk rate? His career walk rate is 5.7%?

Paul Sporer: SwStr and K rates down, too. Could be a new approach. Definitely worth keeping an eye on

bushupking: If you were in charge of playing time for the Royals, would you be letting Kyle Isbel play every day? Why aren’t the real life Royals letting Kyle play every day, either at the majors or in the minors?

Paul Sporer: I understand why he isn’t getting everyday burn given their MLB setup, but then he should be playing everyday in AAA. He’s a good player but deserves more than 4th OF status

Armadillofury: I’m not trolling but WAR since sticky stuff ban- Gerritt Cole – 4.37 ERA, 3.73 FIP and 2.0

Armadillofury: Kyle Gibson – 4.44 ERA, 3.86 FIP and 2.0 WAR since sticky stuff ban

Paul Sporer: Go trade Cole for Gibson 🙂

Alex: Thoughts on Kyle Gibson? Had a blah start in coors last night but peripherals look good

Paul Sporer: Honestly that was a great start for Coors, but of course I sat him! He’s a team streamer for me meaning I don’t cut him for the starts I don’t want him bc he’s too valuable to throw back into the pools in 12s and above. 10s probably still standard streamer status.

bushupking: Jo Adell will be sent down to the minors to work on defense and contact by (fill-in-the-blank) date?

Paul Sporer: May 1st if that K rate isn’t sub-35%

Tony: I know you love fried. Would you trade b.lowe for him ?

Paul Sporer: Yes, that’s a fair deal

NateDogg: What will the Rockies decide to do with their OF and is Grichuk a hold in a 10 teamer? Batting 2nd today without Connor Joe

Paul Sporer: Definitely holding Grichuk. I think Grichuk, Blackmon, Bryant, and Joe are the primary 4. Joe just getting a day off

Armadillofury: Jeremy Pena is a top 50 hitter right?

Paul Sporer: On the Astros, sure

NateDogg: Jesus Sanchez breakout?

Paul Sporer: I’m in on Sanchez for sure!

Tony: What do you make of manaea and his 89mph fastball? Would you try and sell high

Paul Sporer: Velo down a bit from last year, but he’s lived w/89-91 for most of his career. If you can sell high, by all means, but I’m not trying to get out from under a pending collapse or anything

Paul Sporer: BTW, I want to make clear that I’m not an anti-Peña guy w/that response. He’s not a top 50 hitter, but I do think he’s a double-double (10+ HR/SB) kinda guy w/a good AVG

Steve: Thanks. One additional question, do you think Ozuna’s production is sustainable. Someone tried to trade me Rodon for him which I wasn’t interested but I am curious to watch him.

Paul Sporer: Yeah Ozuna is a really good hitter. That trade would be fine if needs match

John: I know Voit was a BOLD prediction of yours for 2022 and it’s definitely still early, but boy does he look absolutely lost.  Think he turns it around quickly enough to get enough ABs to even be relevant?

Paul Sporer: I think he’ll be fine. HIs Ks are mostly in line w/last year (which I did want to see improvement on, but I’m not buggin too much), but his BABIP and power should regress. He fits that mold I mentioned earlier wherein I understand cutting in 10s and 12s for a flavor of the month bc it’s hard to wait on later round guys to come around in those formats, but if you do that just keep him on your watchlist bc he will be worth re-adding at some pt

Kyle: Should the Braves let Strider be a starter or continue to use in bullpen role?

Paul Sporer: I think they are trying to keep him stretched for a potential SP role down the line

Asher: Any idea of when we may see Roansy Contreras get a shot at the rotation?

Paul Sporer: Team need could drive it sooner than later, but otherwise I think sometime by early-June

Paul Sporer: He still has plenty of fantasy value in this role, as does Strider, btw. If they are going to be limited to 2-4 IP, it’s better to have them in the middle of the gm instead of as starts so we can maybe finagle some wins!

Ricky H.: Is Tanner Rainey good?  Got him as a $1 keeper in an NL-only league where closers usually go for more than $20.  Trade him while he’s getting saves or think of him as “real” long-term keeper.  Thanks, Paul!

Paul Sporer: BB% down a ton and boosted SwStr% suggests more Ks could be coming. If he keeps the HRs in check, I think he could be a closer all year. If you have SVs surplus, shop him around, but otherwise I’m holding

Guest: Thanks for the chat!  Would you pick up Merrill Kelly 켈리 for Eduardo Rodriguez?

Paul Sporer: Gahh, can you cut anyone else? Also, please include league type for these, y’all. It is SO important. # of teams, league type, other pertinent info to make the decision

Paul Sporer: I’d hold E-Rod and really try to cut someone else for Kelly, who I do like

Crone Zone: Austin Meadows running a babip that’s unsustainable by triple digits, but xwOBA >.450 in the small sample size we have. Anything different there or he’s just hitting the ball hard for a nice streak?

Paul Sporer: He’s just in the zone rn w/that gaudy BABIP and BB%. He will come down to earth, but he’s a plus bat

Broken bat: Watching yesterday’s Met game with Megill pitching. Why is Cano playing defense? He can maybe cover 3 feet each way. His defense is a liability and oh by the way, forget the shift when MeGill,pitches. He was hurt by the Giants just tossing their hands at pitches to go opposite direction.

Paul Sporer: Yeah he should not be out there defensively. Another major key was SF attacking early. Keith Hernandez discussed this during the broadcast. They normally take pitches so it seemed Megill was trying to steal early strikes with some hittable pitches & they were attacking!

Yabba Dabba: Baddoo? What’s going on? Keep the faith on a 15/20 season?

Paul Sporer: Definitely keep the faith, but certainly disappointed by the inconsistent PT and bottom third lineup spot. Didn’t think Meadows acquisition was going to cost him his lineup spot

Matt: Why is Sheets hitting 4th and Vaughn 6th

Paul Sporer: Bc Sheets is good?

Paul Sporer: And it’s a righty, who Vaughn hasn’t been great against thus far?

Paul Sporer: You Vaughn truthers complain about everything, lol

Paul Sporer: First, it was the colossal overreaction to a random gm last wk when he didn’t start v. a righty and now he’s batting too low. And I realize you might not’ve been part of last week’s thing, I’m just memeing a bit here, but it seems like Vaughn truthers greatly underrate Sheets, especially vR.

Ethan Hunt: Brendan Rodgers slow start: was last season’s limited sample size an aberration or a sign of more good things to come?

Josh: Can Jeremy Pena have a more productive rookie season than Bobby Witt?

Paul Sporer: Whoops, my Rodgers response didn’t go before adding that next Q

Paul Sporer: I am a bit concerned by Rodgers’ K% soaring, but he hit .161/.257/.161 in his first 10 gms last year. These samples just don’t have any weight yet and we’re a good bit away from that happening still

Paul Sporer: Peña can out-perform Witt, but I’m not making that switch yet.

Buying Low: Would you trade Owen Miller for Alex Cobb?

Paul Sporer: For sure, just be mindful that Cobb is on the IL. I’d still do it, but wanted you know before doing the deal

Mitch Keller: Any read on the Astros closer situation and/or when Pressly is back? Seems like it’s Neris imo but I’ve seen many people disagree

Paul Sporer: Oh I definitely think it’s Pressly anytime he is healthy

Matt: You starting Giolito right off the IL?

Paul Sporer: I am, yes

atoms: What’s wrong with Mookie Betts!?

Paul Sporer: 9 gms

Ethan Hunt: Is it possible that Juan Soto is slightly overrated as a fantasy player?

Paul Sporer: LOL, no

Guest: Worried about Wheeler?

Paul Sporer: No, he got like ZERO spring so this is ramp up

Billy Bigshot: Is Ryu droppable?

Paul Sporer: IL him where you can, but otherwise I’m OK cutting him in 10s and 12s. Toss up in 15s and larger

B’Ryce Hammer’s Luscious Locks: What the heck is up with E-rod? Do you roll him in a two start vs MIN and LAD next week? Eeek!

Paul Sporer: It’s been 7 and 2/3. His 2nd start was derailed by the Candelario error

Bill Brasky: Do you think Rasmussen pitches well enough to be a solid SP in 12 teamers?

Paul Sporer: Ehhh it’s really borderline bc he’s a 5-inning max guy right now which puts a huge burden on him to be damn near perfect to have strong 12-team ratios. Love the talent, but he’s not a must start in 10s and 12s

Andrew: Is Suzuki a first round pick next year?

Paul Sporer: 11 games

Nick: When I was a kid, I had two friends named Paul and my dad’s name is Paul. Do you know any other Pauls?

Paul Sporer: My dad was named Paul and I met my best friend in college who is named Paul as is his dad!!

Kev: Whats the deal with Trent Grisham? is he just not that good?

Paul Sporer: No, no, he’s good. .192 BABIP, 8% SwStr says the 30% K rate isn’t legit and will come way down. I’m 0% worried and would pick him up anywhere he’s cut

N: We all know Nick’s high expextation on Ashby. How about you Paul?

Paul Sporer: Big fan! https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/fantasy-update-2022-re-draft-top-27-dyna…

Hank: How much longer do I hold Adames in a 10 teamer

Paul Sporer: Depends who you are getting. Again, in 10s, you gotta act quicker so I totally understand moving on relatively soon if there’s someone you really want. You might come back around to Adames down the line.

Robbie: Luzardo a hold in a 12 tm redraft? Thoughts on him moving forward?

Paul Sporer: Yes I’m holding., His LAA start was inflated a little by the sun field wherein he & Sandoval were in the bright sun & the batters in the shadows. I think that spiced up their outings and I’m not too surprised by STL busting him up a bit bc they are pretty good (espec. vL)

B’Ryce Hammer’s Luscious Locks: Piggybacking on the Voit question, was that slide dirty, or nah?

Paul Sporer: Not even a little. Collisions aren’t pleasant but they aren’t inherently dirty either. Everyone is talking about his arms as if he slammed them down with malice and I’m just not sure what ppl wanted him to do. Slowing things down like that frame-by-frame and assigning malice intent is silly to me. Seemed clear to me it wasn’t dirty at all.

daro: trevor rogers was dropped in my league. how much will you be willing to pay for him? 50% faab. league has $0 pickups

Paul Sporer: 80%+

Guest: Is it time to let go of CJ Abrams in redraft?

Paul Sporer: how many teams?

Paul Sporer: (would drop in 10s and 12s, holding in 15s a bit longer)

EldridgeCleaver: Your comments about Contreras/Strider going 2-4IP out of the bullpen being better than starting because of the potential for a W got me thinking….is Jordan Hicks worthless as a SP?

Paul Sporer: For a while, yes.

Paul Sporer: He would be much better in that same Strider/Contreras/Whitlock role

Paul: Can you just talk about Shane in glowing terms for a bit?

Paul Sporer: Sugar Shane McClanahan?

Paul Sporer: He is SOOO good. I’m such a fan of his.

B’Ryce Hammer’s Luscious Locks: Heaney just hit the DL… smh

Paul Sporer: Aw man!!!

Speculator: Hi Paul, Is Cavan Biggio an overrated waste of dynasty roster space or will I be happy I was excruciatingly patient? Thanks again.

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t go that far in roasting him, but I do think he’s a cut

Chuck: Heaney just went on the IL. Droppable or hang tight?

Paul Sporer: Can you IL him?

Chris: JRod a 30/30 guy?

Paul Sporer: Not this year and I’m not saying that based on his slow start. I’m a big J-Rod fan but I’m not putting anyone on 30-30 out the gate

Open Container Guy: Pujols going from 1st to home yesterday is his season in a nutshell so far, unexpected but fun to watch.

Paul Sporer: LOLOLOL perfect!

Bob: Charlie Morton worth the #1 waiver claim?

Paul Sporer: Yes

Bob: Andrew Heaney for Javier Baez sound about right. Both on IL.

Paul Sporer: If you can get Baez, I’d do that for sure

Armadillofury: Have you changed your mind on Wander yet? https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/5-players-im-removing-from-my-draft-boar…

Paul Sporer: After 12 gms, absolutely not. With all due respect, it’s wild to me that you’d even ask

Paul Sporer: Even in those games, he hasn’t done anything to change my opinion

“This is more about the depth of shortstop than anything else, but also the fact that I don’t want to pay a premium for player with 70 MLB games (admittedly 70 great games with his 127 wRC+) that didn’t feature the most bankable fantasy skills: power and speed.”

Nate: Is it time to cut bait on Kiriloff in a deep keeper? I love the guy but the fact that he continues to have wrist issues is really troubling

Paul Sporer: How deep we talkin? Can you not try to get something from a believer? I got pretty spooked by the wrist and moved him down a good bit in draft season: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-2022-first-base-rankings-wi…

Jim: I know it’s only 11 games, but it’s Nolan Gorman time

Paul Sporer: Gorman does have 7 HR, but also a 40% K rate. I do think Sosa gets a shot to join the lineup before Gorman gets the call (and moves Edman to SS)

E: Gorman’s stirkeout rate is huge right now.

B’Ryce Hammer’s Luscious Locks: Can we talk about Kyle Wright yet? Dude’s getting some major whiffage

Paul Sporer: I’ve bought in. It’s early obviously, but I think there is major breakout upside here. Former big time prospect and #5 overall pick who is finally getting his first real shot in the majors (70 sporadic IP from 2018-21 prior to this yr)

Look Dude: Are the Orioles that bad or is Nester Cortes that good?

Paul Sporer: Both?

Paul Sporer: He won’t get Ks at some elite rate, but I think he’s legit and worth rostering across the board right now

Look Dude: I accidentally dropped Kittredge in a ww claim first few days of the season.  Meant to drop McHugh.  Oops.  That’s gonna hurt all year.  You ever had a blunder like that?

Paul Sporer: Nothing with a cut, but I’ve made start/sit blunders that stinggggg

B’Ryce Hammer’s Luscious Locks: Mitch Keller went 5.1 innings of 4 hit ball with a 32 CSW% against Milwaukee. That’s different.

Paul Sporer: Nice to see the velo finally pay off! He’s got a tough 2-step next week, but I can see his believers taking the plunge (home v. MIL & SD)

Ampersand: ROS pick two: S Suzuki; J Sanchez; T Grisham?

Paul Sporer: Suzuki & Grisham

Just a fan: I see you are a fan of Grisham. Should he be owned even in 10 teamers?

Paul Sporer: I’d say so, but there he falls under the “belongs on a roster, but maybe not your roster” meaning you might have too strong a team to pick him up, but someone is almost certainly rostering a player who should be on the wire instead of Grisham

Indeztree Tawk: How bout SOME LOVE FOR MATT BRASH. Kid looks Legit and what a pickup by Depoto as well

Paul Sporer: A player to be named later for Taylor Williams!!!

Paul Sporer: Brash bypassed AAA, too!

Ben: Brad Keller – enough upside in a 10-team league to consider more than a streamer?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK keeping him as a team streamer right now and seeing how he does at SEA and at CWS next

Surprise!: Who’s your biggest surprise of the season? In either direction performance wise

Paul Sporer: Cleveland’s offense going crazy

kevinthecomic: Seems like a lot of hitters are off to slow starts this year.  I don’t have any stats to back this up, but seems to be more than usual.  Any chance this is due to the shortened spring traning?  IIRC, hitters have said in the past that the only really valuable part of spring training is getting your hitting timing back.

Paul Sporer: Shortened spring, deadened ball, and humidors across the board are all factoring

sean: when is your next pitcher rankings update?

Paul Sporer: mid-May

Travioli: How confident are we that Thor is back?

Paul Sporer: I’m a Thor stan so I’m pretty happy by the early returns. For me, it comes down to health, not skill. If he stays healthy, he will be good

Bob: Morton lit up in the first inning 18.00 ERA and 3.00 WHIP. Still considered a #1 waiver claim?

Paul Sporer: Not great, but velo and spin were just fine (actually up v. previous starts) so I’m still going for him. Dodgers are tough

Baseball panda: On the homepage on mobile I only see trending articles, so new things like the chat aren’t visible so I miss them or am late 🙁

Paul Sporer: Not the first I’ve heard on this feedback, so I’m definitely going to ask about it!

mike: dropping badoo in 10 teamers?

Paul Sporer: Unfortunately, yes. There’s almost certainly an OF worth getting for him. It’s been a throughline of this chat that we have to be more open to cutting guys like this in 10s and 12s bc the waiver pool is so robust and being too patient will cost us. I’m still not cutting anyone I grabbed in the first 15 rds or so, but beyond that, it’s open season.

Cito’s Mustache: Your chat banner shows up fine on mobile for me, fwiw (iPhone 11)

Paul Sporer: The banner yes, but they are referring specifically to the trending articles tab

Paul Sporer: or not tab actually, but this

Bob: You seem to be somewhat high on Reid Detmers (SP 66). Are you deterred by his lackluster two starts?

Paul Sporer: No, I’m chillin. I play mostly deep leagues (15+ tm’ers) so somebody like Detmers is definitely a hold. Totally get moving on in 10s and 12s where you should be cycling 2-3 pitchers almost weekly

Cito’s Mustache: How often are FanGraphs’ “2022 Updated In-Season Projections” updated. Daily?

Paul Sporer: I believe nightly

Belli’s Belly: Is Cody Bellinger back? Or should I sell high?

Paul Sporer: You know I can’t say if he’s back off such a small sample, butttt I am open to selling high even if you do think he’s back

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get goin! Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later tonight and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!