Paul Sporer’s 2026 Bold Predictions Recap

Let’s take a look at how my BPs went last year!

Original Piece 

C: Will Smith is the #1 Catcher on the Player Rater

Full Line: .285 AVG-25 HR-78 RBI-84 R-1 SB

Result: Alright, we come stumbling out of the gate, not only falling shy of the mark but getting a brutal half season from Smith. He hit .260/.355/.426 with 10 HRs en route to the 25th ranked C on the Player Rater. I think this might be my stop with Smith. I bought in big the last two years and came out 1 up, 1 down, though both shortened by injury. Entering his age-32 season, he has just 712 PA the last two seasons after four straight reaching 500. Pair that with the booming catcher market and I expect to be looking elsewhere for my C1 next season. 0-for-1

SS: Nasim Nuñez Steals 40 Bases

Full Line: .272-7-53-48-43

Result: You’d have to be a complete idiot to predict anything north of 40 here. Imagine thinking he could steal 50, that’d be crazy embarrassing! Nuñez did nab an MLB-best 49 bases but did so little else around them that he landed just 173rd among hitters on the Player Rater and 53rd at middle infield, qualifying at both positions. His .209 AVG was a huge negative while you also had to make up the negatives of just 1 HR, 37 RBI, and 55 R. Thankfully, I only focused on his SBs in the Bold Prediction, but his season perfectly underscores why I have such an aversion to rabbits. 1-for-2

2B: Ceddanne Rafaela Puts Up a 20 HR/50 SB Season

Full Line: .288-22-91-78-51

Result: Rafaela had a perfectly fine season, landing the 51st spot among hitters on the Player Rater, but he was nowhere near the breakout I had tabbed for him. He essentially repeated his HR/SB (= HR, -3 SB) totals from 2025 with a 24 point jump in AVG but I was focused on the former and a repeat wasn’t close to what I needed to land this one. It’s funny that I got Nuñez right and Rafaela wrong yet I don’t feel bad if my excitement led you to Rafaela as he didn’t kill our teams this year while I’m not aggressively patting my back on Nuñez. That said, I’m now 1-for-3.

SP: Eury Pérez Strikes Out 200 Batters

Full Line: 211-3.22-1.04-12

Result: I really went through it with Pérez. I stood by him through his first 13 starts, disappointed by his results but never really wavering on rostering him or even starting him. But when injury struck in late-June, I pulled the ripcord concerned that the injury would last upwards of 8-10 weeks and that paired with the underwhelming results (4.43 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 16% K-BB in 67 IP) made it an aggressive-but-justifiable move in my book for a league like the Main Event that has seven reserves and no IL slots. When he was back essentially a month later, I didn’t chase him for the rebuy. He had a 1.71 ERA/0.86 WHIP in first seven starts back and I was definitely kicking myself. His final two months were a rollercoaster that calmed my nerves regarding the cut as he had a 4.82 ERA/1.42 WHIP despite his season finale shutout. The injury all but cooked this one, though Pérez will once again be among my targets as I still don’t think we’ve seen the best of this 24-year old arm. 1-for-4

1B: Miguel Vargas is a Top 10 First Baseman on the Player Rater

Full Line: .254-31-86-74-7

Result: Ah yes, the pièce de résistance!! Standing by my guy paid off beautifully. After his steps forward in 2025, I was convinced Vargas was on track to continue evolving and he even exceeded my expectations. Not only did he handily beat my 31 HR/86 RBI projections (33/93) but he destroyed my 74 R/7 SB marks with 103 runs and 22 SBs!! He was 4th at 1B, 2nd at 3B, and 17th overall. It will not get better than this one. This is my strongest win and gets us to 2-for-5. 😎

OF: Colton Cowser Puts Up a 35 HR/25 SB Season

Full Line: .258-37-83-79-26

Result: Despite adding 50 games to his ledger, Cowser had fewer HR/SB than 2025 as the added game volume only netted 32 more PA. He was in a firm platoon and became a key defensive replacement. The critics of this one had it right and while I knew it was always going to be an uphill battle, the 0 HR/0 SB April sealed my fate early. 2-for-6

RP: Griffin Jax Logs 20+ SVs for Tampa Bay

Full Line: 23 SVs-2.75 ERA-1.00 WHIP-100 Ks in 70 IP

Result: I feel like I could maybe squeeze a directional win out of this one because while he did blow the first game of the season and ended with exactly 0 SVs, his shift into the rotation was successful. He posted a 3.53 ERA/1.18 WHIP in 112 IP so if you bought in, even for the wrong reason, you got a nice little return. The problem is, how many of his original drafters held through a month of poor middle relief to see those SP gains? I can’t imagine too many, so even in the friendliest grading system, I wouldn’t feel great clocking this one in my favor. 2-for-7

OF: Jeff McNeil Returns to the .300 Level

Full Line: .306-16-72-66-3

Result: Aggressively wrong. I couldn’t even pull some BS like trying to just count his home numbers since that ballpark was my primary reason for jumping on board. He hit an empty .264 on the season with just a two-point home/road split! 2-for-8

SP: Taj Bradley is a Top 25 Starting Pitcher on the Player Rater

Full Line: 3.18-1.13-185-10

Result: There were moments throughout the season where I thought this one would cash. He had a 2.77 ERA through his first nine starts but a 6.57 ERA in his first five starts after returning from Triple-A doused this one for good. Even with a healthy 3.59 ERA/1.18 WHIP in his final 71 IP, it just wasn’t enough bring his ratios down to what I needed, but he did exceed the strikeouts (205) and Wins total (12) I had for him, landing a very respectable 38th SP on the Player Rater. I’m plenty happy if you tailed me with Bradley, but I can’t take a true win. 2-for-9

3B: TOR Gets 70 HRs from their Kazuma Okamoto/Addison Barger combo

Full Lines: KO: .271-32-81-84-1 | AB: .257-38-77-92-4

Result: Barger’s injury grounded this one before it ever had a chance to leave the airport as he played just 9 games this year. If you’ll indulge me, I’m going to snag a 0.5-point here for Kaz’s 33 HRs. His .232 AVG fell well below my projection but 81 R/92 RBI with the homers was enough to make him the 9th-best 3B on the Player Rater. I firmly stand by Okamoto if you drafted him on my recommendation. 2.5-for-10