Paul Sporer Weekly Baseball Chat – July 22nd, 2020

Paul Sporer: Hey yall, sorry for the mess ups. I mis-timed my post, but let’s get this party started!

mokajige: Josh James or Jesus Luzardo? (Roto:W,L,K,SV,ERA)

Paul Sporer: I’d go Luzardo by a hair

Ray: Paul! I can’t stop watching Twitter vids of Kyle Lewis hitting bombs in intrasquad games. Had a nice oppo taco last night. Can you see a breakout in 2020? I want to drop Renato Nunez for him in my dynasty points league but I need your blessing.

Paul Sporer: Do ittttt

Zach: Pick 2: Matt Magill, Austin Adams, Diego Castillo, Jose Alvarado, Tyler Rogers, Nick Burdi, Kyle Crick

Paul Sporer: Gimme Burdi and Castillo. I don’t really want to mess with SEA’s bullpen

Boringtine: Standard 5×5 roto…Drop one of these: Upton, Renfroe or Pederson for C.Dickerson or Hilliard?

Paul Sporer: Hmm, if I knew Hilliard was gonna play I’d be more interested in him. I could see dropping Renfroe for Dickerson, but it’s not a must

Quarantino Martinez: Hey Paul! ​My al only auction league is going snake this year for time​ (​lame​)​ reasons. I’ve never snaked before. Any tips? I’ve got all my auction values, but not sure how I’ll know when to pounce on guys I like. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Wow it’s rare that someone has never snaked before. Take a look at ADP to get an idea of where guys go but don’t get married to it and don’t be afraid to take your guy a round or two ahead of ADP if you believe in them at that pick

Quarantino Martinez: Any interest in Brady Singer?

Paul Sporer: Gotta see him first, but def a watch list guy

Dezre: What’s your DD team name in the show? In case I ever play them in extra innings (vs CPU controlled DD teams)…would be awesome! Thanks

Paul Sporer: Charlotte Otters (pjs1024 psn)

Mr. Fister: Do you see Ian Happ getting full time ABs or at least close to full time ABs this season?

Paul Sporer: Pretty full, ya. I’m definitely drafting him in all formats

Korey: Lot of hype for Rich Hill in this short season, but he ranked very low on your SP rankings.  Why so?

Paul Sporer: 40 year old with a lengthy injury history. I don’t dislike him, but I think he’s a bit overrated in some circles

Boringtine: Hampson or Arraez (Roto, 5X5 plus TB)

Paul Sporer: I’lll take Arraez, I just don’t trust COL

Aceman: One bench spot left,Franchy or Kieboom?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Kieboom

Mr. Fister: Is there any way you could see Kim holding the closer job all year in St. Louis?

Paul Sporer: There’s a way, sure, but I could see him being stretched out to eventually start and giving way to someone else in the 9th

Love your podcast: will Forest Whitley going to fulfill potential or does his hype make for a better trade chip in dynasty

Paul Sporer: There’s still plenty of time to fulfill the potential, but I see him as a trade chip at this juncture

More Quarantine Please!: Woah, Luzardo by a hair over James??  What about long-term for James – do you think he’ll stick as a starter?

Paul Sporer: Over time I favor Luzardo more

Paul Sporer: Luzardo is being a bit overrated this year hence the proximity for the two

Big Tuna: Are you adding Brady Singer anywhere?

Paul Sporer: AL Only, maaaaaaaaaybe 15-teamer if I have a free reserve spot

Matt: Did I miss it or are you just not doing the “Bold Predictions” series this year? Feels like a great season for it.

Paul Sporer: We’re doin’ em this week. Mine out tomorrow!

Mr. Fister: Can Yandy Diaz hold down a full time gig this season?  Seems like TB has like 16 guys for 8 positions.

Paul Sporer: No, there’s no real need w/the players they have

Manuel: 12 team points auction tonight, with scoring that usually pushes pitching over hitting. Go all in on two aces, or try to spread the wealth and go for balance? Definitely going stars/scrubs on the hitting side.

Paul Sporer: In a 12-team, I’m good to go 2 aces and then play the middle and back end tiers to find value elsewhere

Lorenzo: Is Dylan Carlson roster worthy in general?  Do you think he plays every day once he is promoted?  Whats your outlook regarding projected stats etc., thanks!

Paul Sporer: NL Only and deep mixers, but he’s definitely missing at least the first week and I’m not sure he gets an automatic spot when he is called up. Love the talent, but nervous to mess with too many stashes in a season like this

Karl: Paul, Baseball is baacccckkkkkk!!!!

Paul Sporer: I’m definitely excited but cautious

Quadrangular: Paul, is it bad that I’m excited for baseball returning while simultaneously feeling like they probably shouldn’t be playing baseball right now?

Paul Sporer: Totallllllyyyyyy get that feeling

Jake: Hi Paul! Can you see Karinchak being of value? Need RP and noticed Hand’s velo isn’t even up at 90 yet!

Paul Sporer: I don’t really see him taking the closer’s role, but I think he can be a strikeout & ratio asset

big mac: Who can i pick up on waivers to help mitigate the loss of Dozer?  Smoak?  Thx

Paul Sporer: I like Smoak. Without knowing anyone else who’s out there, I’ll say go for it with Smoak Monster

Mr. Fister: Will Grisham be given the opportunity to play full time, or will he be in a platoon with Olivares?

Paul Sporer: I think Grisham will get a day off here & there, but I don’t see a straight platoon

Big Tuna: Who are your favorite multi-innings arms this year, and is it crazy to like Strahm in that role? SD has said they’ll have a quick hook.

Paul Sporer: He’s a good one. Johnny Lasagna (Loaisiga), Tyler Mahle, Austin Voth (if Fedde wins the 5th spot), Dustin May

Guest: know you’re low on Mallex, but let’s say you’re committed to the idea of getting an elite base-stealer. Him or Dyson?

Paul Sporer: Dyson bc he’s much cheaper

Scioscia distancing: Bryan abreu or Jonathan loaisiga  for a sneak tip wins or holds guy for the first couple line ups?

Paul Sporer: Loaisiga! Love his talent

Saul Porer: Paul! Strikeouts aside, Moncada or McNeill?

Paul Sporer: Moncada more dynamic fantasy player

Manuel: Are there any up to date resources on who has opted out?

Paul Sporer: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WA37lkF6DNpjw_t_e_Sq08RyBYiTSK… second tab on bottom

Henry Rowengartner: Hi Paul! What do you think of Benintendi? A little meh but is he that far off from a Blackmon?

Paul Sporer: I can see an improvement over last year, but he’s still pretty far from Blackmon, even if only bc of the park. That’s enough difference to favor CB for me

Jam Dupes: Paul what do you think the impact of casual weather will be on the shortened season?

Paul Sporer: I can’t believe no one is talking about how much Casual Weather will play a maaaaaaaassssssssive role in this season loooool

Paul Sporer: I think Justin is drafting exclusively around Casual Weather

Hopefull in SD: I know it was PCL, but France hit freakin .399 last year. Any chance he’s a decent MLB hitter?? I love hit potential at C

Paul Sporer: I think he could put up some decent #s if he can finagle some PT

Guest: If Stripling is on waivers, how much should I spend, all things equal?

Paul Sporer: 30% of budget

Vegan Man!: Last bench spot in a 14 team points – Thames, Kendrick, Cespedes, Chris Taylor, Maikel? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Love Thames & Kendrick. If forced to pick, I’m going Kendrick. Full-time burn and a lot of what he did last year is legit

Scioscia distancing: Does Victor Reyes take over the lead off spot from maybin this year?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think so, no … really like Maybin btw

Sleepless in Seattle: Crazy to thikn Kikuchi could be the best starter in Seattle?

Paul Sporer: No, not at all. Not a ton of competition, but I think Gonzales/Kikuchi/Walker are all pretty similar and could all be their top dog

Guest: McCullers or Carlos Martinez?

Paul Sporer: McCullers for me – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/updated-starting-pitcher-rankings/

Mr. Fister: Franchy and Bolanos for Tim Hill.  Hard to see how anyone can NOT think the Royals won big on this trade.  I know FC strikes out like 40% of the time, but how often does a team have a chance to get two young guys, one with massive upside, for a relic of the past LHP reliever who also happens to be 30?

Paul Sporer: I mean there’s a path for them to win big, but Franchy is WILDLY overrated until he does something of note. Striking out 40% of the time makes him unplayable so he needs to fix that immediately. Hill is a lefty killer who can contribute immediately. Bolanos has a better chance to make this a win for KC than Franchy.

Guest: drafted Carlos Martinez hoping to get some of that sweet sweet saves from an SP action, but now that he’s in the rotation I gotta just hang on and start him right?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, you gotta use him as SP and look elsewhere for SVs right now

Mr. Fister: Astros getting plunked three times yesterday…..just shitty pitching, right?  Either way, I like it.

Paul Sporer: Didn’t seem intentional, but you really shouldn’t like it. That’s really bizarre and messed up. Chucking baseballs at dudes, even dudes who cheated, is about the biggest bitch move you can make, especially when some operate under this comically stupid idea that they’re the only team that cheats. I’m not absolving them, but these teams better make sure they’re own house is clean before they start throwing baseballs at ppl. Hell, we’ve already heard of cheating stuff from other teams, including one of the teams crying most about Houston. Don’t root for beanball wars, it’s remarkably stupid and it makes you look incredibly petty

Guest: Thanks for chatting, Spo. Drop Hilliard for Franchy?

Paul Sporer: You’re welcome! Definitely keep Hilliard over Franchy

Rizzzzuto: Is Evan White worth a bench/UTIL spot in deep league or was hot summer camp a fluke?

Paul Sporer: I think he is, yes. I’m intrigued by him and actually wanted him in my 12-teamer last night, but had too many bench bats already. Really like him in 15-teamers or AL Only

Supernintendo Chomers: Canning last start encouraging.  Worth my final P spot in a vacuum?

Paul Sporer: Yep, looking healthy which is my only question with him. I love the talent.

Harry: Who do you like at 2B in a roto league, Wong or David Fletcher? OBP league. Thanks

Paul Sporer: Gimme Kolten. Fletcher has some interest as a bench bat with insane eligibility and great contact skills, but he’s pretty bland fantasy-wise

Mr. Fister: The DH is here to stay, right?  Please say yes!

Paul Sporer: I certainly think so, as it should be

Harry: Would you drop Buxton for either Kyle Lewis or Chris Taylor?

Paul Sporer: Hang onto Buxton for now. He’s progressing well and has much higher fantasy upside than those 2

Guest: Now that Alvarez isn’t going to start the season on time, is Kyle Tucker now a top-30 outfielder?

Paul Sporer: Best I can do is top 40. Alvarez isn’t out for the year and they still like Reddick, for some reason

Karl: With the short season I feel like having a guy like Grichuk on my bench isn’t the best use of a spot, and I could stream or look for more upside and get the same production. Is how you’re creating your bench changed since it’s a short season?

Paul Sporer: I don’t know that he’s an inherently bad option. He runs pretty hot & cold so when he gets going, he’s the perfect guy to stream in during his run.

Richard: Slim pickings at 1B, would you drop Vogelbach for Evan White or Nate Lowe?

Paul Sporer: Gimme White over Vogey

Big Tuna: What do you make of Yoshi Tsutsugo? Hitting lead off vs RHP and eligible at 3B/OF has piqued my interest.

Paul Sporer: Definitely interested in him as his bat seems pretty strong. Playing time will be sketchy w/TB, but if he rakes, he’ll at least earn strong side platoon work. Worthy option in most formats

Salty: Dynasty question – does a player like Hoskins take a value hit if he turns into a DH-only player (assuming the NL keeps the DH long-term)?

Paul Sporer: A little, but guys like Cruz, healthy Khris Davis, and Yordan Alvarez hold big value as UT-only and Hoskins can certainly fit into that grouping if he’s raking

Big Tuna: Jose Peraza. Top notch speed. Revamped swing. 26 years old. Starting 2B. Eligible at 2B/SS/OF. Shouldn’t he be owned in most 12 team leagues in case he’s for real?

Paul Sporer: Eh, I think I understand why more ppl are playing the wait-and-see. His bat has never been any good so believing it before seeing it isn’t something I’m terribly interested in.

Matt: I need a waiver wire 1B temporarily. Why do you think Depth Charts has Thames at ~40 games? He should be full time 1B with closer to 50-55, no?

Paul Sporer: They’ll face more than 5-10 lefty starters and he’s a straight platoon so 40-45 makes more sense

Guest: Greinke up to 80 pitches last night is a relief, right? Any lingering concern about starting him in his opener?

Paul Sporer: Nope, I’ve learned not to worry about him in spring training stuff

Matt W.: Mookie making the money 12 years $350 million

Paul Sporer: Deserved af

Harry: Betances is a name but are guys like Karinchak, Tyler Rogers  better SV/HLD options and ratio guys?

Paul Sporer: Might be better only in that they’re cheaper, but I still think Betances is a strong option for SV/HD

Life is a pitch: What convinced you to move Luis Castillo into the top 10 in your pitcher rankings?

Paul Sporer: A few guys moving down plus being in that Central division

Guest: In a 14-team CBS Points Only Keep 5 League… Wondering which side of the trade you have. McCullers Jr/Correa for Gallen/Gurriel.

Guest: Gurriel Jr I should specify

Paul Sporer: Gimme the two Astros, but it’s a fair deal. I love Gurriel Jr., but the risk seems to be tilted heavily toward the Gallen/Gurriel Jr. side

Bilbo: He picks up figure skating, Boitano Bichette.

Paul Sporer: LOOOOL yessss!

Guest: Who you taking between Kyle Hendricks and Julio Urías?

Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/updated-starting-pitcher-rankings/

Michael: Our draft is on Friday, and we’re retroactively applying stats. How should I incorporate Thursday/early Friday performances into the auction? I assume people are going to overrate them, but in such a short sample, those stats are kinda valuable, no?

Paul Sporer: Even in a short 60-game season, I’m still not overrating a couple games. I’d barely acknowledge it outside of maybe a crazy outlier performance like 20 Ks, but like Cole/Kersh/Scherzer are already going high anyway so I’m not even sure an insane game could really raise them that much

Mario Mendoza: Will there be any brawls this season, with, ya know, the covid

Paul Sporer: There isn’t supposed to be

Matt: Who do you think closes in STL? Does Gallegos get the job back once he rejoins the team?

Paul Sporer: Kim for the time being. Hard to say beyond that as they have so many viable options

PB&Js: Speaking of Ty France– how realistic is it that he gets C eligibility, and if so, how long do you think it might take?

Paul Sporer: Very possibility w/Hedges & Mejia there

BBChip: Will you be pictured on an cardboard cutouts in any MLB stadium?

Paul Sporer: LOL not to my knowledge

DH: Isan Diaz demolished the minor leagues last year, but struggled mightily in a small sample in MLB. What are your thoughts on him for this year?

Paul Sporer: I like him! I’m not putting much weight into that nothing sample. I’m taking him in some deeper leagues (15+ team mixers, NL only) and watchlisting him in others

Robert: Does the runner placed on 2nd base in extra innings rule boost any player’s value?  Like Hampson or someone fast?

Paul Sporer: No bc you never know who it’s going to be. Can’t really factor it into the rankings at all

Mayor McCheese: Willie Calhoun or C.J. Cron (roto, 5×5 plus TB)

Paul Sporer: Cron’s healthy, gotta favor him right now.

Mike B: Will Nick Solak get FT at bats?

Paul Sporer: Starting in LF for Calhoun and if he hits, I think he’ll continue to get burn in LF/3B/1B. Big fan of him

Dan: What craziness led to Brendan McKay going 45th overall in a points draft I’m in?

Paul Sporer: A family member of his was in the league?

AD: Paul, big draft tonight! 12 team league with Wins AND QS (dumb, I know). I have the 4th pick. Am I crazy for leaning Gerrit Cole there? Sounds like he will have a full workload right off the bat, and auction calculator says it’s him by a landslide

Paul Sporer: No issue taking him. I have Cole a bit lower than most as it’s his first year with a huge contract, so I usually want to see a transition year, but by no means do I expect him to be bad

Mr. Fister: Tigers won’t bring up any of their pitching prospects this year, will they?  🙁

Paul Sporer: As much as I’d like to see them, I hope not. There’s no real reason to do it

Robert: Hey Paul.  Do you like Corbin Burnes this season?  Would you start him against the Cubs?

Paul Sporer: I’m intrigued and definitely have been looking to draft him (missed out by a few picks in 2 lgs). I’d start him v. CHC

sunnyvale samsquanches: keeper q. elieser hernandez for $3 in nl only 9 team roto. good? or avoid?

Paul Sporer: It’s fine. Not sure he’d go for more if you threw him back so if you’re cutting another keepable, I’d probably not do that

PB&Js: Heard you on the pod talking about R. Ray’s arm changes, and obviously control has been the only thing holding him back. From what you’ve seen/heard, are you ready to call him fixed (and therefore dominant?)

Paul Sporer: Not at all, no. I haven’t even seen it in practice myself. We hear about these kinds of tweaks and fixes all the time only to see the player be unchanged so let’s see it in real games before considering him a different pitcher

John: Local department of health has just vetoed the Blue Jays playing in Pittsburgh.

Paul Sporer: Saw that. This is gonna be wild.

Guest: Akiyama or Danny Santana (points league)? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Gimme Akiyama in pts where Santana’s speed is mitigated (plus Santana’s plate approach is brutal)

Robert: Are there any surprise call-ups you think will happen this season?  Like Wander Franco?

Paul Sporer: Probably some but they’re impossible to predict. I do feel confident in saying Franco has virtually 0% chance of being called up

Matt W.: Paul your cardboard cutout only goes to Kyle Gibson starts.

Paul Sporer: lolololol, I could see Justin doing that to me

Vegan Man!: Will Myers or Ryan Braun? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Gimme Brauny

Jack off all grades: Devil’s advocate opinionto your take on the Stros.  I think too many people have fallen into this fallacy of “because other teams did bad things too, look over there and leave the Astros alone.”  The 17 Astros were caught red-handed breaking rules that may have directly contributed to them winning a WS title.  The MLB did absolutely nothing to punish the players involved, and honestly nobody cares if Crane, a billionaire, has to cough up 5 million dollars and hire a couple new execs.  If MLB doesn’t step up to discourage the players from these types of things, then at that point it becomes the job of the other players to police each other.  You can’t have it both ways.  If you don’t want beanball wars in your sport, you have a duty to punish the guilty parties, not just the billionaire owner.

Paul Sporer: If you think throwing baseballs at players is the solution, you’re completely wrong. There’s no devil’s advocate to it. Beanball wars are dumbest f’n thing in the game and they solve absolutely nothing. I’m not moving on this stance, sorry

Paul Sporer: Just bc you didn’t like the punishment for the Astros doesn’t mean nothing happened. They lost their manager, GM, and four major draft picks. Classifying that as nothing is just plain wrong.

Salty: Paul – missed the game the other night – did you see the new Texas park?  And do you think it’ll play to pitchers as much as the consensus seems to think?

Paul Sporer: I didn’t. I’ve only seen it on MLB the Show lol

Richard: Jays should just play all games at their opponents’ stadiums. Easiest solution but not being publicly discussed.

Paul Sporer: That’s not very fair

Robert: Thanks for answering all my questions Paul!  I’ve been impressed listening to your podcast.

Paul Sporer: Thanks for listening and coming to the chat!

Adam Dawson: What’s up Paul, this is Baseballfan15000 from your stream. I added Chris Taylor and dropped La Stella. Good move or nah?

Paul Sporer: What up! I’d have preferred to stick w/La Stella as he’s more of a full time and the Dodgers will definitely mix & match, but it’s hardly a *bad* move

Adam Dawson: Also what do you think of Ryu this season? I’m afraid a major regression is coming

Paul Sporer: Why? He’s never not been good. Health is the only hurdle.

Vegan Man!: 25 team dynasty and I’m trying to win now. Would you trade Brad Keller, Mickey Moniak, and Danny Santana for Greinke? I think it’s an obvious yes, but losing Santana’s speed/versatility is rough for this year… Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’d do it, yes. Santana’s speed is nice, but he could definitely flop this year. He’s faaarrr from a guarantee so gimme the premium arm

Gray: How are they doing service time this season?

Paul Sporer: https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2020/6/28/21304734/final-clarification-on… scroll down in this article

Happy for Betts: Buehler for Lindor is a no brainer right? I have 3 studs (Buehler, Castillo, Clevinger) so thinking the bat is a better play here. Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Oh 100% slam dunk for me to get Lindor

Jack off all trades: Paul, I’m not trying to move you off of your opinion, of which I fully respect.  I’m just saying that a lot of people felt irked that the players (who are the ones who carried out the cheating) received zero punishment.  The players couldn’t care less about the team losing draft picks or a manager.  All me and a lot of others are saying, is that it was total BS that none of the players even received a slap on the wrist.  I mean, the league could have at least handed down ten game suspensions or something.  Not trying to pick a fight, just presenting the other side of the argument.

Paul Sporer: Just don’t think you can accurately dole out player suspensions in this case. How do you prove who was part of it and who wasn’t? If I’m batting and say don’t do it, but they do it anyway so you hear trash cans while I’m batting even though I said 100% I don’t want it, now I’m suspended? No way. They went to the head of it and played the institutional control card which I agree with. Waaaaayyyyy too messy trying to hand out individual suspensions. The org needs to be punished more than individual players anyway

Scouts Take: Hello Paul, what do you think about Jon Berti this year?  Lots of SB potential and I have to think the DH in the NL helps him right?

Paul Sporer: Pleased to hear he’s playing 5-6 days a week this year so I’m really in on him. Missed out last night on a team where he’d have fit perfectly!

Rick: Hi Paul – bit of a weird question, but I’m in a HR-only pool.  Pick any 10 players in 1st half, then 10 different players in 2nd half.  Is it worth it to look for a bit of a flier to differentiate me from other teams (sort of DFS style) – somebody like Castellanos?  Or should I just stick to the big dogs?

Paul Sporer: I like looking for some different types and def agree w/Casty as one such guy. He’s gonna smash this year

Grandyman: Have a guess on mike trout game total this year?

Paul Sporer: Not really, no. It’s just impossible to guess if he’s going to leave after his baby is born. If he doesn’t leave, it’ll be 3-5 games missed.

Richard: AL only with SV+HD.  Any waiver wire relievers to target to pick holds or help ratios?

Paul Sporer: Trevor Rosenthal, James Karinchak, Aaron Bummer, Adam Ottavino, Diego Castillo

Dan: Zack Greinke’s projections on FG show his ERA ballooning up over a full run. You buy that?

Paul Sporer: No, the HR projection makes no sense to me

Greg: Renato Nunez or Khris Davis?

Paul Sporer: Khris Davis for sure

Guru Mayhem: Who’s the best sleeper?  Jay Bruce, Matt Carpenter or Ryan Braun?

Paul Sporer: I like Braun best of that trio, espec. w/the DH

Mayor McCheese: Julio Urias for Franmil Reyes? I need pop, should I ask for more?

Paul Sporer: I’d take that. Really fair deal

Chucky: Haven’t seen anything thus far, but in CBS leagues 20/10 game requirements for position eligibility. How ‘should’ it work with a 60 gamer?

Paul Sporer: I know NFBC is going for 4 in-season. I’d say 7/4 is the right adjustment

Hot Karl Jensen: Senzel, Castellanos, Votto, Mous or Suarez…………which Red does the most damage……..ooooooo or maybe Shogo?

Paul Sporer: Huge fan of that squad, but gimme Casty to go off this year

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!