Starting Pitchers to Stream — 9/24/20

Thursday has a much smaller slate of low-owned pitchers in CBS leagues with only six choices. So let’s discuss these six in hopes of finding streaming options. As usual, I will conclude my thoughts with a STREAM or NOT recommendation.

Martin Perez | vs Alex Cobb vs. BAL

Man, Perez has been killing me as I own him in AL Tout Wars and have been benching him because of his terrible peripherals, but losing out on some solid starts. Thanks to a suppressed .244 BABIP, Perez has posted a sub-4.00 ERA. And while he has maintained last year’s strikeout rate spike, the velocity surge that seemingly drove it, hasn’t been held. In fact, his four-seamer and sinker velocities are down nearly two miles per hour from last year. The southpaw is now sitting on a SIERA over 5.00 in five straight seasons. That’s bad. Against an Orioles team that has been below average against lefties, the matchup is good, especially since it’s a home start. The one glimmer of hope here is his velocity jumped to its highest mark of the season during his last start, so perhaps he just needed some time to get going. I would cautiously STREAM here and hope the velocity uptick sticks.

Alex Cobb | vs Martin Perez @ BOS

Cobb’s appearance here means we have two streamable pitchers facing each other. Cobb has gotten back to his ground ball inducing ways, and his SwStk% sits at the second highest mark of his career (ignoring last season’s 12.1 inning tiny sample). His velocity has been good and his splitter has generated its highest SwStk% of his career. It’s too bad that’s his only pitch as his sinker is brutal. While I’m not much of a fan and the matchup isn’t great, there’s enough here that if you’re desperate, he’s worth a STREAM.

Kris Bubic | vs Michael Fulmer vs. DET

In this wacky year, Bubic is just one of a handful of pitchers who have debuted, making the jump all the way from High-A. While his season performance hasn’t been anything to write home about given his 4.64 SIERA, he has generated a double digit SwStk%, driven by a decent four-seam/changeup combination. His curveball has been downright awful at inducing swings and misses, but has induced an amazing rate of grounders, at over 80%. It’s an interesting group of pitches. The Tigers have been the league’s third worst team by wOBA against right-handers and there’s little reason to think it’s just a slump. Bubic will be opposed to Fulmer who owns an 8.17 ERA/5.48 SIERA and hasn’t made it past the third inning in any start. This is nearly as good a matchup as possible, making him an easy STREAM.

Chad Kuhl | vs Alec Mills vs. CHC

It’s no surprise that Kuhl has struggled with his control this year in his return from TJ surgery. He has thrown his slider and curveball more often this year, which is a good decision and has boosted his strikeout rate. But that walk rate is problematic and given that TJ recoverees do often take longer to regain their control, you can’t expect it to suddenly be fixed for this next start. While you figure he won’t get bombed for nine runs over 2.1 innings against like he did against the Royals, the six walk affair illustrates the risk of implosion. Against a solid Cubs offense, he’s a NOT.

Michael Fulmer | vs Kris Bubic @ KC

Ummm NOT (see Bubic blurb for more).

Chi Chi Gonzalez | vs Kevin Gausman @ SF

I’m not sure how Gonzalez keeps finding himself in the Majors, as his peripherals are awful. NOT, duh.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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jbranfman
Member
jbranfman

Bubic is a LHP, not a RHP. The Tigers hit LHP extremely well.

vanno64
Member
vanno64

jbranfman… Man, you’re right! Per FanGraphs, they’re #1-#2 in BA and wRC+ when facing LHP and when facing LHPs on the road. BA of .316 and .333… with wRC+ of 138 and 159. YIKES! Whooda thunk it? Thanks, because I have been eying Bubic just because he was going against “crappy DET.” But now that I know these numbers, it’s gonna take some brass xxxx to roll with him.

Anon
Member
Member
Anon

They do, but doesn’t that kind of have SSS fluke written all over it? They have a team .394 BABIP against lefties which is the highest in the league by 50 points, even though their LD% is average-ish (12th). They have the 2nd highest GB% and somehow still have the 8th best ISO.

IF you look at individual hitters, there are some crazy numbers. Candelario has a 32.3% LD% and a .483 BABIP. Miggy has a .440 BABIP and a 42.3% LD%. Those both look unsustainable. Niko Goodrum has a .389 BABIP despite having only a 10.0% LD% and Victor Reyes has a .414 BABIP with a average-ish 21.4% LD% so both of those look all sorts of fluky.

I think you have to look at the players on that team and just acknowledge that they are rostering a lot of guys that will play their final major league game sometime in the next couple years. To me, they are not to be feared.

vanno64
Member
vanno64

Good point. Those are some CRAZY HIGH high numbers – sheesh!! No doubt they would regress if the season had weeks or months remaining. However, those players’ Regression Monsters haven’t shown up yet – can they possibly show up in time for Bubic’s Thursday start? Guess we’ll see soon…