Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – May 31st, 2019

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, everyone! It’s time to chat!

Peter: I need HRs/RBIs, what bat should I be targeting in a trade for Lucas Giolito? Should I wait a start before trading him to get more value?

Paul Sporer: “Who do I target” qs are really hard bc it’s all about what your market will bear, so I don’t really know, but you should be able to request a strong power bat

Manny: OBP League Keeper, would you move Vogelbach straight up for Mallex Smith, given the state of speed?

Paul Sporer: Ya that definitely works

Ralph: How good is Caleb Smith as a keeper? Better than Musgrove? Can he reach Nola/Buehler/Flaherty levels?

Paul Sporer: Yes and yes, with his swing and miss stuff, he can really be a continued top 30

Donjuan: K Gibson, S Gray and W Miley all have similar availability on the wire.  Do you have a strong preference between them?

Paul Sporer: Not a strong preference, no. I’d lean Gray

Trevor: Do you expect anything out of Francisco Mejia ROS? Next year?

Paul Sporer: I’ve never been a huge fan

Nats: Does ownership let us sell this time around?

Paul Sporer: I think they continue to give it a shot and hope for a hot streak

marichal: What are your expectations for Jimmy Nelson ROY?

Paul Sporer: Once up and locked in, I think he can be a 3.75ish ERA arm with good Ks

Donjuan: How great is Giolito?  I saw his last game and he seems pretty legit to me.

Paul Sporer: I’m a fan. Nick & I just discussed him on the pod (out later this afternoon) and I wrote him up early in May: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/lucas-giolito-is-on-the-radar/

Kyle: Hi Paul, thanks as always for taking the time to chat with us. I think we all take for granted how much work you guys and gals do for the fantasy baseball community to get us the best content possible. We should be much more appreciative than we are.

Paul Sporer: Thanks for that! That’s a really nice msg.

Siri: Please explain Jesse Winker. Career low BB rate, career low babip. Yet, we’re a third of the season into the books.  What gives?

Paul Sporer: I’m not tooo worried about it. He’s not necessarily selling out for power, but does have a 26% HR/FB. A quarter of his hits (10 of 42) going for HRs is impacting the BABIP since homers don’t go into BABIP. I’m inclined to still buy here

Desmond: Hey Paul! Any worries about Domingo German’s workload? Was around 93 total IP last season and 120 in ‘17. Already at 60 this year.

Paul Sporer: I think he’ll be OK for about 170. There will probably be some skips and maybe even an IL stint, but I think he’s fine

Donjuan: Have you thought about having a ROS pitching ranking post, where you update the ranks daily?  I think it would be extremely well viewed.

Paul Sporer: I’d die.

Evan: Will Joey Votto turn it around?

Paul Sporer: Not to Vottoian levels, IMO

AllHeaters: Do you think if the astros number 5 starter continues to be a problem we see josh james in the rotation at some point this year? Or do they need him too much as a swing man

Paul Sporer: Oh I absolutely think he gets some starts this year

Phil Plantier: In a 20 team dynasty league, is Montas, Taylor Trammel, Marco Luciano and the 15th pick in the first year player draft a fair offer for Gerritt Cole?

Paul Sporer: I’m not a huge dynasty leaguer, but it feels a bit light

Siri: Franmil Reyes or Jorge Soler in H2H categories obp league?

Paul Sporer: Not sure there’s a difference in skills so I’d move to soft factors like division context, which pushes me closer to Soler

Brandon: Hey Paul, free agency is pretty scarce in my league (we do monthly auctions so moves are limited). Do you like Bassitt or Mahle more for the next month?

Paul Sporer: Eyeballing it, Cincy has a better setup so Mahle by a hair

bleepbloop: 10 tm keep forever 5×5+ OPSxQS.  Which side do you prefer: Acuna + Castillo vs. Arenado + Conforto?

Paul Sporer: That’s a fair deal, but I’m leaning Arenado/Conforto

Tee: Thanks for the chat! Obp al league, could you rank Forsythe, Lourdes Gurriel, Derek Fisher?

Paul Sporer: Your order is my rank!

Kyle Gibson: Are you a fan? Gibby has 2x 19%+ Whiff% pitches: change (23.44%) and slider (28.02%).

Paul Sporer: Still too many homers, but the increased whiffs backs up the improved K rate for sure

Peter: Is Austin Riley for Lucas Giolito a fair trade?

Paul Sporer: It is, yes

Rude Pauls Drag Bunt: Any ETA on rankings updates?

Paul Sporer: Aiming for Monday… Tuesday at the latest

Phil Plantier: In a 14 team dynasty, is Albies a fair offer for Hader? I have Ketel Marte and need saves.

Paul Sporer: Oh ya, that definitely works for both

JP: Im still struggling with what to do with JRam. 12tm Roto, what’s a return that’s worth pulling the trigger? Don’t want to sell too low, but fearing it will only get worse. Or do I just keep, then live and die with him RoS?

Paul Sporer: It’s so tough bc you’re just not going to get great offers. I’d just try to attack a need, so if you can help a category enough, pull the trigger.

BlueBirds: Can Jorge Soler keep up his 35+ HR and 100+ RBI pace? Also any hope that he maintains his may K% (21.8%) and not his gross april (37.5%)?

Paul Sporer: No, I think he’s more of a 30% baseline. I’d plan for like a 28 HR/90 RBI season and work from there

ROBOCOP: How worried are we on Martin Perez after his start last night? Is he still a hold in a 12 team roto, and how long of a leash should we give him?

Paul Sporer: One bad start against a v good team, I’m not running away

The Electrician: Whoa you’re early! What is Carson Kelly’s fantasy upside if he gets the lion’s share of starts the rest of the way, AND is able to be his best self?.270/.370/.400? Top 10 fantasy catcher?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure why the banner says 2 PM, I’ll have to see what happened with that. Schedule has me for 1 PM ET, so I was actually a bit late (pod ran longer). And ya, I could see that for Kelly. I’m glad he’s finally getting more PT. I had some love for him after getting out from behind Molina, but then ARI went with 326932649823 catchers on the roster lol

Scott TINSTAAPP: Is it too early to stash Dinelson Lamet in NFBC 15 team?  What are your expectations of him coming off TJ presuming he’s back in the rotation July 1?

Paul Sporer: I have almost no expectations for guys coming off TJ, so I’m not really looking at Lamet myself. It’s just too volatile

Charles: Please rank N. Lopez, Mercado, Biggio R.O.S.

Paul Sporer: I think you just did, but it’s a tight trio so I’m not vehemently for Lopez in the top spot. I would pick him if all 3 were available, though

Ben: Will we get the good Carrasco at some point?

Paul Sporer: He was actually great for a 7-start run after the bad start and bad recent run

The Electrician: Trying to sell high on Austin Riley in a keep forever league, but everyone is aware he cannot keep up this pace forever so I am having a hard time moving him for something I want more than him. Obviously if he crashes hard he won’t net more, but am I just stuck with his wunderkind this year, and if he finishes strong he’ll solidify his asset class? Or just keep peppering managers with offers?

Paul Sporer: I’d probably just ride it out. Most leagues aren’t going to give an established superstar for a high flying rookie

CJ: everyone is talking about kevin, but what about cj cron ROS?

Paul Sporer: Ya he’s been awesome again! I think I’d put him down for about 20 HR and 60ish RBI rest of season

OddBall Herrera: A week since Chavis’ last extra base hit, and the Ks are piling up.  Is it time to get off this merry go round?  Thinking of swapping him out for Urias whenever the Padres realize Kinsler isn’t helping them get to the playoffs

Paul Sporer: And cutting Chavis?! That seems like a bad idea

bleepbloop: Would you be comfortable trading Arenado without getting a 3b back if your only 3b is Justin Turner? 10 tm 5×5+OPS

Paul Sporer: The hamstring makes it a little dodgy, but a healthy Turner, yes

Dr. Funk: Rank these injuried (or recently off IL) pitcher for ROS.   Heaney, Nelson, Eovaldi and T. Williams.

Paul Sporer: Nelson, Heaney, Eovaldi, Williams

JoeyBoomBats: Should Garrett Cooper be on 12-team 5-OF radar? Seems like the Marlins love him, and early Statcast returns are good (.362 xwOBA).

Paul Sporer: I could see him creeping on the radar. He seems to be playing every day, too, which is huge for shallower leagues

Guest: Think Smeltzer can stick and push Pineda to the bullpen (where he and his shallow repertoire belong)?

Paul Sporer: Another strong start with Pineda sidelined would definitely put the Twins to a decision. Pineda just isn’t good enough to consistently so maybe the pen is the place for him to maximize

Donjuan: How many hours per day do you spend on baseball related activities?

Paul Sporer: Probably about 15

jockey: very deep OBP league, i’m trying to upgrade at C (currently Severino), best wire options are Perez, B. McCann, Kelly, Wolters. Who do you prefer out of those five?

Paul Sporer: I’d go Wolters first, then Kelly. Wolters hasn’t even fully taken advantage of Coors yet (.728 OPS) so if he starts to leverage that, he could be even better or at least cancel out any road regression (.794 OPS)

baseballdude: would you trade domingo german, german marquez, or mike minor for edwin diaz in a redraft H2H points league?  my other SP are berrios, bieber, giolito, canning, alex reyes, and clevinger/glasnow on IL.  my RP are vazquez and luke jackson.

Paul Sporer: If I can pick which one, it’d be Minor, but I wouldn’t be against trading any of the 3 if my trade partner balked at Minor or German and demanded Marquez

weezy: Live and die with JoRam! Plenty of bats w/ track record (Carpenter last year, for instance) have been bad this far into the season to turn it around

Paul Sporer: I hear you, though let’s remember that this struggle started late last year and he sputtered to the finish line. I can’t say I saw this coming at all, but I was very surprised that he was the unmitigated #3 for much of draft season until about late March

Jimmy: Are Statcast and I the only ones who are taking Howie Kendrick seriously?

Paul Sporer: Loooooong time Howie Kendrick fan so whenever he gets going, I usually hop in somewhere (he’s on a couple mixed benches for me). Dude just hits. Remember, he was supposed to win like 38,281 batting titles. Hasn’t ever gotten one, but a career .292 in 6000+ PA is nothing to sneeze at

Porcho Villa: Dropping Votto in 10-team OBP? E.g. for someone like Matt Carpenter?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I can do that 🙁

g4baseball: Is it time to stick a fork in Darvish?

Paul Sporer: I can’t fully quit him, but he’s fallen way down on my rankings and I can understand 10- and maybe even 12-teamers cutting him

Ryan: What do you think of Miles Straw RoS? Just picked him up in a deep league.

Paul Sporer: I can’t really see much impact as I’m not sure what kind of PT he’ll get long-term, but he’s a true burner and they don’t always need major PT to impact fantasy lgs

Ryan: What’s up with Christian Stewart, I was a big believer preseason, but I’m starting to worry. Will he turn it around?

Paul Sporer: He’s still walking, but just a 7% HR/FB has snuffed out the power. I do think he’ll be fine and still be a low-AVG, solid-OBP power guy, but you can move on for now in shallow leagues until he starts to heat up

Jay Bruce is not afraid: Do you think Eloy will bust out at some point?

Paul Sporer: I do, yes

The Electrician: Meg said in her recent chat that you’re essential to keeping the staffs average height up.

Are you ever inclined to just pick up the other fangraphs writers and put them on top of filing cabinets and have your run of the place? (I mean, if hypothetically fangraphs was office based, WOULD you be inclined?)

Paul Sporer: LOL, I’d be very inclined to do exactly that!

Brad B: How afraid should we be about Soroka’s workload being limited? Should I be looking to trade him, and who might some hitter targets be?

Paul Sporer: I tend not to get too hung up on these things because we just don’t know. If you can get a big bat to help your squad, then consider the deal. But I’m not actively running from my Soroka and Paddack shares in fear of the shutdown

Jay Bruce is not afraid: Drop Tortuga for Garver?

Paul Sporer: You can, yeah

Killer E’s: Eickoff or Eflin RoS?

Paul Sporer: Think Eflin by a smidge (new SP rankings out early next week!)

Mike G: What are your thoughts on Griffin Canning long-term and what do you think his line will look ROS?

Paul Sporer: I will defer to the recently posted pod: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-sleeper-and-the-bust-episode-698…

Jacob DeGrom: Am i a top 10 SP at seasons end?

Paul Sporer: Yes

Pike Trout: Could Duplantier be a stud this season?

Paul Sporer: Sure he cooooouullldd, but I wouldn’t make a huge bet on it. I’m a fan and so I’ve got a few shares and eyeing more if this is more than a spot start, but he has command issues and I imagine we’ll get some bouts of inconsistency if he sticks in the rotation. The 2-3 IP RP role might be his best slot, tbh

Paul Sporer: OK, y’all. I gotta get going. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Snapchat (psporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch (twitch.tv/sporer) later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a great weekend!