Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – March 11th, 2020

Paul Sporer: Welcome everyone!! Peak draft season is here. Lots of drafts this weekend and next, let’s talk some baseball!

grundle: thoughts on narvaez?

Paul Sporer: Not trying to put you on blast specifically, this is more of a PSA, but I generally don’t love “thoughts on” bc it’s not really a question and just super vague, so I’ll ask for more pointed questions or generally ignore these. He’s good, though.

dougie jones: happ or myers as last OF?

Paul Sporer: Happ, I’m fully back in!

Unsullied: big hubbub in my league as owner 1 traded $40 Trout for $25 Verlander and $13 Hader. seems unanimous that erstwhile Trout owner could have gotten more – substantially more. what do you think? 10 team head to head points.

Paul Sporer: Perhaps he could’ve, but that’s who he wanted. Gotta let managers manage their teams. It’s not on the rest of the league to impress their player values on someone else. This isn’t vetoable or anything.

Josh: I like Voit as a sleeper this year.  with the injuries to Stanton and Judge, is it likely that he ends up batting 4th or 5th in the lineup?

Paul Sporer: HUUUGE Voit fan this year. I think he’ll start a 5. He may move down a bit as those guys return, but if he rakes, they aren’t going to put him 8-9

Tim: If you own Judge for 45 in Ottoneu and he has to get surgery do you just drop him?

Paul Sporer: Yeah I’m fine with that, tbh

Squeaker: Adam Haseley a good target?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league type. Make sure to include league context y’all or else too many answers will be “it depends”

Mr. Tennessee: Mallex Smith – stay away in OBP league?

Paul Sporer: you can delete “OBP”… just stay away

Chad: Not trying to be insensitive or stupid but will this pandemic cause baseball to be delayed? canceled? Baseball is the one thing I use to escape the stress and anxiety of the real world. I am angry/sad/ and annoyed.

Paul Sporer: It’s not insensitive to ask. Obviously the health of everyone is first and foremost, but its impact on everything else can be discussed, too. I think they’d go to empty stadiums before just cancelling the games

Michael: Is Kurt Suzuki underrated again like he is every year or should we start to get worried about age?

Paul Sporer: Underrated again. I literally JUST finished the catcher pod preview with Justin seconds before this chat so you can’t listen just yet, but we did hype Suzuki

Steve: Have to decide between keeping Verlander or Clevinger, what are your thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I have moved JV below Clev dog 🙁 …. SP ranking update coming soon given all the news. Also will finally have RP ranks up before this weekend for those of you drafting

Unsullied: re: Trout trade – completely agree. and that’s where we ended up.

Paul Sporer: OK good, glad it wasn’t vetoed

Micah: Hey Paul – who are a few of your favorite upside plays w/ a pick around # 375 in 6×6 roto?

Paul Sporer: I built a whole team post-300 here just yesterday: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/building-a-team-after-pick-300/

Hot corner: What percentage chance do you give Austin Riley of being the OD starter at 3B?

Paul Sporer: 55%? He’s raking in spring so I can see him overtaking Camargo

Mike: I would like to know, is it time to drop Nick Senzel, for a hotshot like Dominguez Yanks, or Pena Royals

Paul Sporer: I’d imagine this isn’t a dynasty lg or these guys would already be rostered so I’m gonna pass. Those guys are sooooo far away. I’d just be a bit more patient with Senzel and see how things go this year

Michael: Voth, Wood, or Gausman?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Gausman! Here’s my full SP rankings, btw: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-175-sp-for-2020/

Benji: What do you think winds up happening with Barreto / Mateo this month?

Paul Sporer: It’s a tough call, but I’m leaning Mateo. Frankly, that might just be wishcasting more than anything else, though. Ideally, the loser of the battle is traded somewhere he can play regularly and both end up getting plenty of PA

grundle: Sorry – narvaez, is over 15 HR’s a realistic expectation?

Paul Sporer: Yes that’s fair. I think we said high-teens on the C episode that will be up later today

Rutherford The Brave: Weird comparison but Laureano (24th Round pick) or Suarez (17th Round pick)? Think the shoulder is good to go?

Paul Sporer: Suarez is coming back pretty nicely and seems good to go, but I’d still take Laureano with the 7 round benefit

Slamboni: Sale still sitting out there in the 19th round of a 10 team 5×5 (26 rounds), time to through caution to the wind?

Paul Sporer: Ya, you can’t get hurt too badly at that point. Severino last year has really made ppl cautious on these cases so Sale’s price has TANKEDDDDD

Michael: Deciding whether to keep Robles ($19) or Albies ($21) in my NL only ($240 budget). Is it close?

Paul Sporer: It is very close, but I’ll lean Albies here

trubull: cut 35$ sale in otto?

Paul Sporer: Ya, that’s too high

Favre: Spencer Howard or Clark Smight from yankees for mlb success this year?

Paul Sporer: I lean Clarke Schmidt

AB: Need some help with my last keeper. Snell (rd 13) or Moncada (15)? 5×5 plus OBP, TB, QS instead of wins, IP, and K/9

Paul Sporer: I love Snell, but when things are close between a hitter and pitcher, I lean hitter, especially at a 2-round discount. Gimme Moncada

Bryan: Do you think Gregorius will put up a decent year when all is said and done?  His spring so far has been… not good.

Paul Sporer: As long as he’s healthy, I do. I’m not particularly concerned about his spring

Vader: Are you hearing anything on Carrasco? Is he going to be back to normal? Indians are going to need the old Carrasco back.

Paul Sporer: Here’s the last thing I’ve seen

 

Zack Meisel

@ZackMeisel

 

Carlos Carrasco’s MRI ruled out any structural issues and confirmed mild inflammation in his elbow. He’ll be down throwing for a couple more days.

11 Mar 2020

dave in slc: amed rosario seemed to be a different player end of last season but you have him in the tier below dejong and gregorius. you just believe big in them or just not as much in rosario?

Paul Sporer: More the former. I like what Rosario did to close the year, including his defense which isn’t directly fantasy relevant, but keeps him from potentially getting ousted at SS. That tier above Rosario isn’t THAT far above them so I’m OK if you lean toward his speed over a DeJong or Didi

Lando: Given the uncertainty with Scherzer’s injury and Verlander should I be drafting Buehler ahead of them and number 3 overall

Paul Sporer: Definitely over JV. JV has moved down a good bit. I’m OK pushing Buehler over Max, too

Vader: I hear conflicting opinions on how good Julio Urias is and can be. How do you view him, and do you think the Dodgers will actually keep him in the rotation and give him 140 innings?

Paul Sporer: His talent isn’t in question as far as I’m concerned. He’s incredible. It all comes down to the IP they give him and I do think they’ll give him 135-150.

Tim: Are you buying a bounce back from Krhis Davis this year? I’m shocked at how far hes fallen in drafts. He’s always had a high hard hit rate and played through some injury last year. Why cant he got back to 40 HRs and his .247 AVG?

Paul Sporer: I’m surprised he’s tanked thiiiissss far. He is dealing with a calf in spring, but it’s not expected to be a thing beyond a few days off. He’s never been any good in spring so I’m not worried about his #s. The poor season plus the UT only are conspiring to sink his price, but I think he’s an easy buy if you don’t get one of the other UT-only gems early (Cruz, Alvarez, Ohtani).

Sandy Ravage: In an AL only, you think Isiah Kiner Falefa is worth a stash? Has C eligibility, having a great spring, chance to play a lot of 3B in Texas (especially if they option Guzman)

Paul Sporer: Yes I’m keen on him for AL Only. He also got a mention on the upcoming pod as I always love non-catching catchers. His upside isn’t immense, but playing time and some sneak speed from a C2 in AL Only is really nice

dave in slc: arcia and brinson both hitting well in ST after being bad last year. are you a believer that either or both have found something? Would you still be drafting urias over arcia?

Paul Sporer: Lewis Brinson rakes every spring. Literally: https://www.mlb.com/player/lewis-brinson-621446?stats=career-s-hitting… … I’m more bought in on the Arcia surge. Urias’ injury opens the playing time, too. I was bought in on Arcia previously so I’m thinking I might’ve just been early. He’s a sneak tip MI late

Rutherford The Brave: Carlos Martinez – 155 IP || 165 K || 3.80 || 1.20……doable?

Paul Sporer: For sure. I still love CMart

Jeremy: absolutely love your podcast bro! Thoughts on Zac Gallen making rotation? Innings cap?

Paul Sporer: Thank you so much! Big Gallen fan for sure. He threw 171.3 IP last year so there shouldn’t be any real restrictions on his innings this year.

dave in slc: correct assumption that your RP ranks will have a section for good ratio guys who arent closing but could?

Paul Sporer: Correct indeed

Clay: Do the recent injuries to stud SPs push other guys up? Or are you more inclined to build your staff deeper in the draft?

Paul Sporer: It will definitely push others up in the market. Team construction will decide whether or not I pay the new prices, but I don’t want to get completely left on the top 25-30 or so

Roger: Do Happs splits against LHP concern you? Everything else looks absolutely rosy according to statcast and even results.

Paul Sporer: Nah, he’s not GODAWFUL against them to the point where he must be platooned. Last year’s .770 and his career .707 are such that he’ll lose a start here and there against them if he doesn’t improve them, but that’s it

Bryan: Is Jesus Sanchez a worthwhile stash or is he stuck in AAA all year?

Paul Sporer: Depends on league size

Nate: How far are you dropping Yordan (if at all?)

Paul Sporer: I was already suspect on taking him as a 2nd/3rd rounder if only because Cruz is so much cheaper so it was less about him and more about what else was available, but now with the knees, I’m pushing him down the board

#Bostonstrong: Will fans give Verdugo a chance this year to show he’s a capable replacement for Mookie?  I’m not saying he’s Mookie, but I feel he’s getting unfair treatment on a trade made beyond his control.

Paul Sporer: Truthfully, it doesn’t matter how fans react bc Boston will give him the shot once healthy. He’s not a Betts replacement, though, in that he won’t touch the heights that Betts did, but he can be a very solid RF for them with a strong, multi-faceted profile on offense and defense

Little Tiger: No love for Jake Fraley on your team after pick 300 ?

Paul Sporer: It’s not that, it’s just that I had to make choices. He could be a sneaky power-speed guy for sure. He’s on my watchlist

Bill: You buying into Swanson’s first half numbers from last year? Also, am I crazy to think about drafting Brinson this year? I’ve been listening and reading a lot about him on the athletic, and they got me believing that Rowson can help turn him around

Paul Sporer: Ya Swanson was clearly hampered by health and that tanked his 2H numbers. SS is so deep that buying into his 1H and hoping he can build on that is very affordable. I have no interest in Brinson. If I lose on him and he FINALLY does something at the big league level, that’s fine. I covered Brinson’s early ineptitude here: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/a-closer-look-miami-marlins/

Jeremy: Will Zach

Paul Sporer: Probably… knowing Zach

Roby: Miguel Sano…..35/100 this year??  Twins look like gonna score ALOT.

Paul Sporer: He can realistically go 45/100 if he stays healthy, but that’s the huge *if*. He went 34/79 in 439 PA last year so the sky is the limit.

Kevin Jones: Hunter Dozier, Brian Anderson and Bryan Reynolds

Paul Sporer: Who are “really solid outfielders that I like as OF3 this year”, Alex?

DJ In PJs: What does we think about Garrett Richards? Can he regain near ace form?

Paul Sporer: Loooong term fan of G Rich and I can’t quit him. It’s alllll about health. The Padres will let him go as long as his arm holds up. I’d plan for a mid-to-high 3.00s with plenty of Ks and go from there

Adam: who are your favorite prospect sleeper SP in redraft.. I’m thinking Kopech, Gore, Pearson types

Paul Sporer: I love Kopech but he’s going to be limited this year after missing all of ’19 so I’m going to lean Pearson of the three. He should be up relatively early (by Memorial Day if all goes well in Triple-A) and his stuff is excellent. Gore isn’t chopped liver, either, I just prefer Pearson

Working the wire: Better waiver wire grab?  Top two if you prefer.  Randy Arozarena, Victor Reyes, Alex Gordon, or Cameron Maybin?

Paul Sporer: Big fan of Maybin this year, tbh. So he’s the easy #1 for me here. And then I guess I’ll go Reyes for the other bc of his SBs and Gordon is just so bland. Arozarena would leap Reyes if he got a spot out of spring, but it doesn’t seem like he will

Pitching depth: Yamaguchi, or Kikuchi?  AL only

Paul Sporer: I’ll go Kikuchi. I like him for a little bounce back after a rough debut last year

Matt: You dropping Willi Calhoun? Or trying to avoid it? I need a replacement and have 1-2 other options, but don’t want to hold forever if it’s just not going to be worth it.

Paul Sporer: Probably only holding in AL

cavebird: Should we bump up the value of all Rays players given the likelihood of empty stadium games and the fact that they are already used to it?

Paul Sporer: lolololololololololol

Morbo: I’ll submit “Reese’s Public Pieces” and “Peter Peter Reese’s Beater” as two of my favorites so far

Paul Sporer: omggggg

jdw: With Cole as your #1 in a 12 team mixed roto how far down into the glob would you be willing to wait for a #2?  Is the middle of your third tier (say Berrios) pushing it too far?

Paul Sporer: No that’s not too far. Cole/Berrios would be a hot 1-2 IMO

Babyfarts: Do you think Kluber has a chance to be a workhorse since his injury last year didn’t deal with his pitching arm or do you expect limitations?

Paul Sporer: Yes I do, I think he’s underrated after the lost ’19

SS depth: Which two of three would you prefer in an AL-only league as SS/MI combo?  D.Fletcher, Goodrum, or J.Iglesias?

Paul Sporer: First two

Colonel Forbin: Any worries about Luis Castillo’s spring?

Paul Sporer: Nah

SS Meat Hammer: Thoughts on Mateo for OAK? Can he get 15 wins, 180 innings? Worth $6 in a 12 team mixed head-to-head? Thanks, Paul.

Paul Sporer: Wait what?

Jimmy2Times: All things relatively equal: Semien or Moncada as final keeper?

Paul Sporer: Huge Semien fan IRL, especially the way he’s transformed his defense, but in fantasy I think Moncada carries a much higher ceiling

Eric: Keeper League Question – Players can be kept for 3 years in this round. Story and Acuna are locks and Judge was as well before the injury but now I am not sure (Judge will no longer be eligible to keep at this price next year).
Trevor Story – 16th
Brandon Woodruff – 18th
Jose Berrios – 22nd
Aaron Judge – 23rd
Bo Bichette – 24th
Ronald Acuna – 25th
Ketel Marte – 21st

Paul Sporer: I don’t know how many you can keep, but I’d go Marte, Bichette, Judge, Berrios, Woodruff for the remaining ones

Jason: What do you make of all the Ryan Helsley chatter coming out of Cards ST? Seems odd because Gallegos is good but it almost feels like they want Helsley to win the closer job.

Paul Sporer: Totally hear you on that. I think Gallegos is the guy, too, but I did give Helsley some love in this piece yesterday: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/building-a-team-after-pick-300/

I Like Her Not: I have Kepler and Beni in an AL league with OBP at about the same price.  Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Kepdog. His breakout came while still struggling against righties a bit so if he improves there, he actually has some upside

Tim: Appreciate all the great material and advice!

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much, Tim! Gonna be churning it out left & right down the stretch here in draft season, too!

pigpen: Arraez as a $1 keeper.  Great value, right?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I’m a big Arraez guy.

Corey: Chances Deivi Garcia makes the rotation out of spring and if is he worthy of being drafts in 12 team mixed leagues?

Paul Sporer: 1.2%

Paul Sporer: I think they can afford to put him in Triple-A to start the season and get the extra service time and then call him up late April if they really love him. Montgomery/Loaisiga can handle it

OJ: Which 2B do you prefer in a keeper…Hiura or Lux?

Paul Sporer: Hiura by a lot. I’m cooling on Lux for ’20 specifically (at least right now with everyone healthy) – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2020-second-base-rankings/

Matt: Got Justin Dunn at the end of my auction. Am I right to be intrigued by his upside for $1 in a dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: Ya he’s a worthy $1 guy

BASEBALL SZN: Is Jurickson Profar ever going to finally “get there”?

Paul Sporer: Ehhh, I doubt it at this point

Injured Yankees: Hi Paul. I’ve got $10 Aaron Hicks on guaranteed contract in an AL Only. Should I keep/cut (with penalty)/trade (possibly with sweetener)? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I’d try to trade it, but if not, I’d consider taking the hit. He’s out half the season off the rip and that’s with everything going well. Imagine if there are any setbacks

DBauer: Lux gonna be on OD roster? I’m also hearing potential platoon?

Paul Sporer: Ya that’s what I was alluding to with regards to not loving him for ’20. Potential platoon or maybe just a trip back to AAA to start the season so he plays daily

TB(D): Is Margot going to play?

Paul Sporer: Some, yes. At least vL and then if/when Kiermaier gets hurt again

River Ave: Paul,  It looks Tucker is the 4th OF in Hou.  What are your thoughts on when he gets gets the FT job?

Paul Sporer: Huuuuge fan when he finally usurps Reddick. Major power-speed upside in a strong lineup

Kingpin: I keep hearing shade thrown at Omar Narvaez. I realize his statcast numbers aren’t great, but won’t the move to Milwaukee mitigate that to an extent?

Paul Sporer: Interesting, I thought the shade was defense-related. I think he’s a solid hitter

Upton Funk: Josh James is basically guaranteed to start in Houston now, thanks to the Verlander news, right?  How much does that bump him in your rankings?

Paul Sporer: He’s into the 59-78 tier now, but I don’t want to overrate him as I still think he’s a potential WHIP hindrance with his walk rate. Love the K upside and think he can sustain a solid ERA. So something like a 3.75/1.30 with 10+ Ks per 9

Edwin: re: Moncada vs. Snell.  You still taking Moncada with NO round discount? (5×5 standard 12-teamer)

Paul Sporer: Yes the round discount just made it easier. But again, when it’s basically tied between hitter/pitcher keepers, I take the hitter

BondsWasFramed: Has Goldy’s ADP dropped to the point where you’re looking to buy back in, or is he on the edge of the Votto cliff?

Paul Sporer: I’m open to buying back in for sure. I don’t think it’s a Vottoian drop yet

darren: Hunter Closing for Balt?

Paul Sporer: He’s in the mix. Not a bad deep league gamble (ideally AL-only, but deeper mixers, too)

Matt: Calhoun replacement – Nimmo or Tsutsugo?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Nimmo

ncb: Hey Paul thanks for all your work. Do y’all have any eta for when there may be relief pitcher rankings/tiers available? The current link in rotographs goes to 2019 and I haven’t seen any.

Paul Sporer: By Friday. Waited as long as I could since it’s such a mess, but definitely before the weekend

Willie: Have 2 drafts this weekend. Is there a spot in the draft where you think you must have a SP rostered by? Particular group of SP’s that you feel you need to have at least 1 SP before they are gone? Thanks

Paul Sporer: I’d like to have my first one within the top 20

Paul Sporer: You can go a little deeper in 10 teams if you wanna stack offense and then pound mid-round pitching

Squeaker: Chances of Paul Sporer going outside at all during the Coronavirus outbreak

Paul Sporer: Add in the release of MLB The Show 20 tomorrow night and it’s down to 3% … just had a big grocery order delivered this morning so I’m stocked up. Only taking Charlotte out for walks

Babyfarts: Is Max Fried the pitcher you want from ATL in a points league due to his K upside?

Paul Sporer: I’m a huge fan https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-175-sp-for-2020/

Paul Sporer: OK yall I’ll carve out time for either 2 chats next week or a MEGA chat next Wednesday (2+ hrs), but I gotta get going so I can finish these RP rankings and get the updated 3B and OF ones up, too.

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). You can always come by and ask questions about fantasy baseball in my Twitch streams or hit me up on Twitter with them, too. Have a good one, y’all!