Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – June 8th, 2018

Paul Sporer: It’s time to talk some baseball!

DB: Ohtani 🙁

Paul Sporer: It sucks. Grade 2 UCL sprain puts him to the DL 🙁

Parts + Gleyber: (T for Teoscar, naturally)

Paul Sporer: Yesss

Parts + Gleyber: Is it ok to think of Teoscar Hernandez as “Push” thanks to my obsession with the Pusha T album?

Paul Sporer: I put those out of order, my b

Mayday Malone: Is “The Dentist” droppable in a 12 team league?

Paul Sporer: Nah, he’s AL Billy Hamilton right now so I’m holding onto the steals still

Anthony: Who’s the pickup to fill in for Familia? Gsellman?

Paul Sporer: Ya we’ve got Robby G – https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/bullpen-report-june-8-2018/

v2micca: Ohtani to the DL with a UCL sprain.  Talk me off the cliff.

Paul Sporer: It’s not the end of the world. We signed up for this volatility.

Kurt: 12 team OBP league (H2H):  Lowrie for Cervelli?  (assuming one team needs a 2B and has an extra catcher; and the other team needs a C and has an extra 2B to deal).

Paul Sporer: Ya I like that. I’m digging the new Cervelli

Parts + Gleyber: Is Steven Wright worth riding in an AL Only?

Paul Sporer: Normal knuckleball volatility, but it works for deep lgs

Matt: Give me some advice Paul.  ESPN, H2H points league.  We only have 3 DL spots and injuries are continuing to pile up.  Currently have Kershaw, Archer and Pollock on the DL…to go along with Myers, Cespedes and DeJong also on the DL on my bench.  We’re only allowed 2 pick ups per week.  Should I continue to stream pitchers, trying to get ones that get me two starts, or should I consider getting some bench bats?  Only allowed to roster 5 SPs.

Paul Sporer: If your offense is holding up with those extra DL guys, then hang on, but if you gotta move on, start with DeJong and then go Myers

Max Kepler Truther: The breakout is coming…

Paul Sporer: Keeping an eye on him

Guest: Paul, thoughts on who should get a weekly start next week (pick 2): C. Stratton (@MIA, @LAD), W. Buehler (vs. SF), K. Gausman (vs. MIA), R. Stripling (vs. SF), or S. Wright (@BAL, maybe @SEA)

Paul Sporer: Strip and Buehler

need saves: In an AL-only league, who would you rather have ROS for saves – Herrera or Alvarado?

Paul Sporer: Kelvin

DB: you holding Ohtani in 12 team NFBC?  They’re saying 3 weeks before he even gets evaluated again.  Feels like it could easily be August before he pitches again.

Paul Sporer: Ya, I’m trying to ride it out at least a week until we get some clarity

John: 5×5 QS league, you starting Tanaka and Weaver?

Paul Sporer: Check out my new SP rankings! https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/june-starting-pitcher-rankings/

Allen: Start Greinke tonight?

Paul Sporer: Sure (he’s in Coors for those unaware)

Stuart: Part of me is still worried that Scooter is going to fall way back down to earth. With the exception of some expected regression, what’s your outlook on him in a keeer league?

Paul Sporer: Going on 750 PA of awesomeness, I think he continues to torch righties and show nice pop

OddBall Herrera: Candelario has been a bit un-celebrated so far, probably because of the depth at 3B.  You buying what this guy has done so far and relevance in 12 teamers?  Everything in his peripherals seems credible…

Paul Sporer: Love watching Candy. He’s rosterable in 12-team

Jake Junis Priest: How long do I hold Hanley in my Only OBP league? He was so good for a minute, but it’s a 3 man bench…

Paul Sporer: You can cut him at any moment you need that spot

Kevin: Are the Giants going to even try giving Alen Hanson playing time, or should I drop him?

Paul Sporer: I’m holding him

BOB ROSS: I have 9 of the top 32 ranked SP. Would you trade Corbin for Eaton, Castellanos, or Haniger.

Paul Sporer: Casty or Haniger

OddBall Herrera: The Ohtani UCL thing is just part of it – it’s also blisters & skipped starts.  Now if he’s out for a season it’s, what, 2020 at least before he’s ready for a full MLB workload?

Paul Sporer: Maybe so. Pitching prospects, man… they break

Saul Rorer: Deep 10 team, ok to drop Jed and Miggy if you have better options?

Paul Sporer: Really trying to hold Miggy, but Jed is fine to let go for me

yojiveself: In spite of the so-so game the other day, is Taillon ascending? I can’t tell if the new pitch is actually helping.  2 good games and 2 meh games in his last 4.

Paul Sporer: I mean, adding a new pitch isn’t just going to transform a pitcher overnight in most cases. It’s definitely helping, but it’s not a magic fix for all that ails him. I like Taillon ROS

DB: 16 team 6×6 keep 8 with OPS & K:BB, I need pitching and he needs hitting.  Eduardo Escobar for Jack Flaherty fair?

Paul Sporer: For sure

Taylor: Drop grandal for gattis in H2H categories?

Paul Sporer: I guess, but it’s the same player

dave in slc: sorry, i dont want to jump on the ohtani train here but in an al only keeper i have him at a good price but do i trade him so i dont slip in standings or hold pat and keep the value? would be selling at a discount im sure even at a good keeper price w fear of tj in the future

Paul Sporer: Awful time to trade him

Doug: I love Greg Allen. Do you love Greg Allen?

Paul Sporer: I do, actually. Saw him at AFL a couple yrs back and have been excited for his prospects since

Jake Junis Priest: If you want some buoying, that old rascal Eno (forever curse his name) still thinks highly of Michael Fulmer.

Paul Sporer: who?

Paul Sporer: and I needn’t be buoyed re: Fulmer. I’m comfortable with all the rankings I’ve given him. If I knew he’d lose his changeup, I’d have had him down the rankings to start the season, but that’s a major difference

Rich: Are people forgetting how good a prospect Clint Frazier is? Seems last years 142 at bats have made people completely forget about him. Triple A numbers look great this year is he a nice l buy low in dynasty leagues and maybe even a stash as someone who can get traded and make an impact down the stretch?

Paul Sporer: Yes, probably. He’s not a Gleyber-caliber, but he’s a damn fine hitter. Don’t usually see Yankees prospects fall under the radar a bit

alr215: 8 teamer standard 5×5 do i drop neris or wait? gabe kapler is soooooo annoying

Paul Sporer: think you can move in 8-tm

Teo: Is Odor worth holding on to?

Paul Sporer: Nope. I’m out

Paul Sporer: Thought he’d bounce back this year nicely, but he looks as lost as ever

Ian: Porcello is having a better season than when he won the Cy Young

Paul Sporer: stole*

Slamboni: 10 tm standard roto: Stanton for Gerrit Cole fair given needs? Or too lopsided on one end?

Paul Sporer: Def fair

Rick: Thoughts on Shelby Miller?  I’m in a league that heavily weighs starters and my SP are…ahem…terrible.  Worth a flier?

Paul Sporer: I’m a huge Shelby Miller fan, but I don’t like TJ returners in their first year back so go in with ZERO expectations. The biggest issue I’ve noticed is they’ll go 3-4 good starts and then a MEGA DUD to waste all the good work bc their elbow just doesn’t have it that day

Paul Sporer: That’s anecdotal af, but I don’t mess with TJ returners in year 1 back as a general guideline, and if I do happen upon one out of need, I’m eyes wide open about the IMMENSE risk

kids see ghosts: paul please help me rank these 3b ROS 8 team daily avg runs rbi hr steal: beltre turner suarez lamb (sitting vs all lefties)

Paul Sporer: Suarez, Turner, Beltre, Lamb

Woad Raider: In a 10 team mix that uses OBP, is Matt Davidson on your roster? I’m holding onto him since his DL stint, but I had to drop J. Harrison to do it. Worth it?

Paul Sporer: Ya I don’t mind it. His BB% is off the charts

Dood: How underrated are players who “won’t win you a championship but won’t lose you one?”  I’m thinking guys like Andrelton and Lestor.  Unsexy but solid.  thanks!

Paul Sporer: Crucial. Tanner Roark’s a good one, too

Woad Raider: Trevor Cahill, do you think he can keep it up?

Paul Sporer: If he stays healthy

Joe: domingo Santana for darby swanson. fair?

Paul Sporer: Sure

Rich: Hi Paul, thanks for chatting.  Do you think Luis Castillo will turn things around this season?  He’s still getting plenty of swinging strikes, and can look dominant at times, but he’s allowing a surprising amount of hard contact.  Fixable?

Paul Sporer: Definitely fixable. I’m keeping a close eye on him for sure

seth: Gausman for MCarpenter? 15 team 5×5 roto with deep benches

Paul Sporer: That works

Elliott Baas: Clay Buchholz for Cy Young?

Paul Sporer: Obviously

Woad Raider: With Ohtani out, is Barria the next good pickup?

Paul Sporer: Ya he’s been really intriguing, I say scoop him most formats

Just A Dude: Points-based keeper league where I have Michael Fulmer at an 8th round value. He’s been killing me this year and my league is notoriously stingy on trades so I can’t even sell low on him. Should I hang tight or drop him for a Tyson Ross/Marco Gonzales type who have at least been rosterable in this format?

Paul Sporer: I’m OK dropping him for someone better https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/june-starting-pitcher-rankings/

Stuck in the Middle: Need to drop on of my MI to grab a pitcher. Drop one:  Yairo Munoz, Jose Iglesias or Daniel Robertson,

Paul Sporer: Munoz

Krog: Kinsler or Odor?

Paul Sporer: Kinsler

Jen: Paul! Asked a few weeks back about Manaea and you suggested our expectations may have just been too high. Where do you stand now? Holding/starting in 12-teamers?

Paul Sporer: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/june-starting-pitcher-rankings/ — definitely cuttable in some 12s

DB: Ross Stripling 25th in your ranks!  He’s probably deserving.  What range of hitter would you offer in a 1 for 1?

Paul Sporer: A very good one who can help my team

Paul Sporer: Your standings matter at this point

JIMMY V: For being a Tigers fan, I don’t hear you talking much about Candelario on the podcast.  What are you thoughts on him? Are we witnessing a full blown breakout?

Paul Sporer: Big fan! .275/25/80 rbi/90 r

Paulie: Adam Eaton isn’t being activated today!  Why did I put myself through this hell drafting him and Murphy?!?  Why???

Paul Sporer: Remember this during draft season! I don’t like ADDING headaches beyond the ones I can’t predict that will def pop up

Ted: Think Quintana for Ozuna is fair? Which side you like more?

Paul Sporer: It’s fair, yes. Seems to be a needs-based move

TJ: Juan Soto is really impressive.  I don’t think 52 ABs is that small of a sample size and dude is rocking a 9|9 KK|BB ratio is even more impressive.  Nats have to send Taylor to the pine when Eaton comes back, right?  Well, until Eaton goes back on the DL a few games after activation, that is.

Paul Sporer: 52 ABs is a TINY sample. Juan Soto is impressive and a reeeeaaalllyyy good prospect, but we’re nowhere near a stable sample for his MLB work

R.K.: Do you think Andrew Heaney has been lucky on balls in play, benefited from great defense (hello, Andrelton Simmons and Mike Trout), or successfully managed contact?  Or some combination of two or three of the above?  Just trying to figure out what to expect ROS, assuming he stays healthy for a change.  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: Love their defense, that was part of my Richards hype. I don’t think he’s been unnecessarily lucky. He’s pitching well and the defense is helping maximize that

Reason to Believe: First, thank you for all you write.  It is really great stuff.  So dynasty — who is the better keeper among these young shortstops: A. Rosario, A. Russell, or D. Swansby?  Categories include OBP and Slugging?

Paul Sporer: You’re welcome, thanks so much! I like Rosario best of that group long term

Al: Do you think E Suarez improves on last season’s breakout?  Is 30 homers, with a .290 avg realistic?  Thanks!

Paul Sporer: It’s possible for sure. I’d be more comfortable eyeing a .275ish AVG, but the 30 HRs is very much in play

Hal: Wait, who’s “The Dentist”? Whit Merrifield?

Paul Sporer: Delino DeShields… DDS

mo bamba: I have Realmuto and Contreas in a one catcher 10 team points league . Which of Donaldson, Gallo, or Shaw is a fair ask or is all of them?

Paul Sporer: Ya any of those is fair to ask for either C

joe: What is wrong with  Josh Bell…droppable in 10 team leagues

Paul Sporer: Tiny HR/FB rate

kevinthecomic: You starting Frankie Montas tonight vs. KC? — 12 team, h2h, 7×7 (obp)

Paul Sporer: Mehhhhhhhhh. He doesn’t have Ks and they don’t K. I’m passing

Evil Fantasy Baseball Oprah: Everybody gets a tj!

Paul Sporer: Dammit EFB Oprah, leave!!

Johnny Five: Thoughts on dropping Gausman? Thought he was a growth candidate this year but it looks like more of the same, roster depth/play at your own risk.

Paul Sporer: I’m cool with it. Infuriating guy. I know this isn’t the magic bullet, but I still have a feeling he blossoms the second he leaves Baltimore, lol

Vegan Man!: Worried at all about Albies, or just a slow stretch? Thanks

Paul Sporer: Think it’s just a cold snap

Lime: Would you rather have Corey Seager or Ozzie Albies for years ‘19 and ‘20??

Paul Sporer: Albies

Michelle: Talk me off the ledge… rapidly losing points to fall out of first and THEN lose Ohtani? Gotta promote one of these guys to the starting 9: Eflin, T Anderson, Kuhl, C Richard, Urena… or hunt the wire.. Buccholz, S Wright, J Beeks? 14 teamer, roto, 45 man rosters.

Paul Sporer: I think I’d promote Anderson and consider scooping Wright. Knuckleballers can get goin

Sporer Paul: you dont think that jake lamb will raise that iso? its at putrid (for him) .167 which is 100 points down from last 2 years

Paul Sporer: Whattya mean? I haven’t been anti-Lamb

Guest: Any major preference between Yonder and Josh Bell?

Paul Sporer: Not major, but lean Yonder

Jose: Thoughts on Angels lineup? Why is Simmons not at the top, and now Trout in the 3 hole. What is going on here

Paul Sporer: Simmons is on the DL

ThatsNotMyMonster: I’ve got 4 Yankees: Bird, Gardner, Gary and Tanaka. Which one should I worry the most about?

Paul Sporer: Tanaka

Paul Sporer: MOCK-

Tommy cheeseballs: Yeah

Sporer Paul: you put 1000 year old beltre over him when i mentioned id sit lamb vs all lefties and lamb is a 280/900 guy vs righties

Paul Sporer: Then pick Lamb! Don’t get mad that I don’t agree with what you already had in mind, lol

Turgid: Gsellman worth a pick up?

Paul Sporer: Ya, give him a go

hscer: A pitcher who never needs TJ. Luck, stronger UCL somehow, just a perfect delivery? what do you suspect is most common

Paul Sporer: Mostly luck. Perfect deliveries don’t prevent injuries

Turgid: Manaea or Wheeler?

Paul Sporer: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/june-starting-pitcher-rankings/

AD: Segura and Price or Morrow for Lindor smell fair?

Paul Sporer: It’s not bad, but it’s probably still a no. A quality, fair offer can still be declined

hscer: any chance the Rockies could snag Franmil from the Padres somehow. that would be graet

Paul Sporer: No, but we can dream

Paul Sporer: Isn’t that what we said about Kyle Blanks and Jabari Blash? Is Franmil just those guys again?

Stick to Sporer-tz: Is it smart to try and trade Mikolas (for Matt Olson?) before his regression kicks in?  Or do you think this keeps up?

Paul Sporer: If you need a power hitting 1B, that’s a good deal. Mikolas’ ERA will likely go up but I don’t see some mass implosion, espec. since he has that command *and* hasn’t allowed many HRs (3 in his debut then 3 more in 11 starts since)

Moltar: RA Dickey has no UCL! We need to clone RA Dickey.

Paul Sporer: :gets cloning machine:

Ted: Do you think Beau Burrows has a chance to crack the rotation for the Tigers next year?  Seems to be doing well in AA, especially given his age?

Paul Sporer: I could see it after a spell in Triple-A

Rays: What should owners expect from Jake Bauers for the rest of 2018?

Paul Sporer: .275 AVG, 20ish HR pop, and some SBs — solid bat

Need More Bangers: was it justin or jason who was saying didi was his pick for AL MVP in april? lol

Paul Sporer: I **think** it was Justin, but he’ll read this later and let us know. Kyle Gibson is lame, Justin.

Squints: Jonathan Schoop was hurt earlier in the year, is seemingly healthy now but his Hard% is down 12% (!) this season. Was last year an anomaly?

Paul Sporer: Last year was a clear outlier, it was his best case scenario. I’m worried he’s not 100% healthy right now. I think 2016 is the best guide

Simmons’ Glove: Interested to see the impact on the Angels starters while Simmons is on the shelf.  Guy is phenomenal.

Paul Sporer: He’s so awesome

yojiveself: candelario or andujar

Paul Sporer: Candyman

hscer: Bauers went 0-4 last night despite EVLA’s of 95/19, 107/8, and 107/9. one game but wanted to mention that for some reason

Paul Sporer: what?

David: Jordan Hicks K rate is rising… are we buying into this or way too small a sample size?

Paul Sporer: Dude has WICKED stuff so as he learns to harness it, I can totally see it rising more and more

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get going. Thanks for coming out. Have a great weekend. Follow me on Twitter (sporer), Snapchat (psporer), and Twitch (psporer24). I’ll be streaming MLB The Show on Twitch later this evening if you want to come by!