Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – June 3rd, 2020

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, y’all! Chat will be a little shorter today as I’m doing my livestream of a Pedro Martinez game with Nick Pollack at 2PM Central. But that still gives us plenty of time to answer a bunch of questions!

Samuel: What’s the biggest change in 50-game season fantasy wise?

Paul Sporer: Obviously the size of it adds a TOOONNN of volatility. All of sudden, the latter half of your draft has weeks to perform or it’s time to move. Of course your top end guys still get some time to smooth out a bit even with a slow start, but I’d think anyone after about the 13th-14th round is on the clock to be replaced almost immediately

robert: Hi Paul, I am in a 12-team points league.  I have 5 hitters I’m definitely keeping and must choose 2 out of the following 3 pitchers: (alphabetical order) Kyle Hendricks, James Paxton, or Zack Wheeler.   Which 2?  Thanks

Paul Sporer: Gimme Paxton & Hendricks, Wheeler is close to Hendricks, but I like the combo of Paxton/Hendricks as their strengths complement one another

Guest: Is it wrong to want no season at this point and just want to see them come back with a completely normal 2021 season?

Paul Sporer: It’s not *wrong*, but I do worry a totally missed season could carry over to ’21’s CBA negotiations and really make things worse. I’ll take the 50-game set at this point

Roger: Last Keeper for my Util spot, Josh Bell or Castellanos? Who do you prefer?

Paul Sporer: Oooooh that’s really tough. Very nice duo there. I’m going for Castellanos as I think he’s poised to really go off with Cincy

Guest: For pitchers: where do you stand on old reliable arms vs young studs with the 50 games? i’ve heard debate that dependable guys like Lance Lynn and Wheeler should get downgraded, since their dependability is less important over 50 games. But saying “oh move up Julio Urias and Luzardo” since they are off innings limits seems dumb. They’ll still be on limits of less pitches per start, which should kill their chances at Wins and cumulative K’s, right?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think there are any hard & fast rules for either set. I think the dependables will remain such and still go 6 on the regular. I think the idea w/the young bucks is that they won’t face a hard IP limit bc there won’t be that many innings so they should be able to go the whole “season”. I wouldn’t make too many SWEEPING changes to how I view different SP types based on this potential 50-game season

Chris: Are there any rookie pitchers you would want on your roster/bench in a redraft league? I guess I’m asking will Gore start the season in the big leagues? Mize?

Paul Sporer: I can’t see Mize starting. Gore was always one of those who could maaaaaaaaaaybe break camp Paddack-style or at least be up very early. I’d be open to drafting Gore in 15-teamers

Jonah hill: Given the shortened format, would you take an outfield of Yelich/Pham/starling Marte or Yelich/Castellanos/Choo?

Paul Sporer: I prefer the latter trio

David: Our league canceled our fantasy season already this year.  How much am I in trouble having traded for Verlander in the second half of last year and now he is a top keeper for my 2021 season?

Paul Sporer: With his age, there is some concern, but there’s nothing in his profile that says the end is nigh. I know at that age there isn’t always a set of warnings before the drop as it’s usually injury that cuts them down, but I’m OK w/JV as a top keeper even for ’21

Matt W.: Do you have your Torkelson jersey yet? Do you think the Tigers would carry him on the taxi squad in 2020 vs  non-competive minor league camp.

Paul Sporer: Not yet and no I don’t think they’d push him that much, especially without playing all spring. I’m definitely down for Tork, but part of me wants Nick Gonzales. Those obscene numbers are so fun, though I know they are heavily influenced by the environment

Matt W.: You made me cry a little bit after listening to yesterdays Sleeper in the bust. Looking back on my late Feburary NFBC draft n hold. I passed on bothe Berrios and Woodruf in round 5 for Bauer. But I like that team alot. Soto, Harper, Alveraz Kershaw, Bauer, Surez, Montas, Sano, Jorge Polanco and Hansel Robles were my first 10 picks

Paul Sporer: I’m not a huge Bauer guy, but I dig this 10 pack. And while I am on Berrios & Woody over Bauer, it’s not like Bauer is incapable of beasting as he did 2 yrs ago. I won’t sugarcoat it, I’d have preferred one of the other two, but you didn’t ruin your team taking Bauer

Slapshot: Say there’s no MLB season in 2020 for whatever reason.  How would you handle any sort dynasty league that’s drafted/auctioned already?  Would you cut down to your usual keeper number and redraft in 2021?  Keep the 2020 rosters, but allow for teams to replace players who retire?  Something else?

Paul Sporer: Maybe put out a couple proposals for the league. I like the idea of trimming the keeper count a bit from the usual number to make the ’21 draft a bit more robust

Lorenzo: Does Trea Turner really dominate SB enough to warrant a late 1st round pick, or even an early 2nd round pick?  It seems like most of the other highly ranked players in the 25-40 SB range have more power and more RBI potential and are better values.  Unless the Nats are planning on moving him down in the lineup without Rendon?

Paul Sporer: I’ve always been pro-Turner as a 1st rounder. I mean, he was 26th on the player rate with just 122 games last year. I think he does have enough pop, R, and AVG to make his SB worth it. He doesn’t always finish in the top 15 players, but that’s not what you’re always drafting for in the first round or you’ll wind disappointed often.

Fuzzy Snail: How excited are you for 2021 knowing that 2020 will eff up 2021 adp for those who love small samples?

Paul Sporer: If we get a 50-game season, the offseason analysis is gonna be wiiiilllddd and frankly, I’m here for it!

H2H Leagues: For stubborn home leagues that will keep H2H despite 50-80 games, what strategy changes would you employ? Push up elite SP & Closures? Ignore Steals & Saves?

Paul Sporer: I think in this shortened season, I might be more inclined to lean away from a ratio stat if I was going to punt something as they won’t have enough time to stabilize. So stack yourself to the gills with counting categories and let’s say you punt AVG, you could feasibly still do well given the small sample volatility

It’s Your Pick!: In a redraft league, if you were ready to take an ace SP and both Scherzer and Verlander were both still on the board, both fully healthy, who do you draft for 2020?

Paul Sporer: Fully healthy JV is my #1 https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/top-175-sp-for-2020/

Scott: I love fantasy baseball, but watching the owners try to short-change the players is tiring. I almost DON’T want a season, so that maybe the MLBPA gets some leverage in the future. Listening to billionaires say they’ll lose money is such crap. On that note, how are you doing?

Paul Sporer: It’s so nauseating. Worse yet, is seeing those who buy into the owners horsecrap and turn on the players as if they’re the greedy ones. I’m doin alright all things considered, but man it’s seems like an endless barrage of pure trash lately. Hang in there, y’all, we’ll get through this

Neal: Trade Garrett Hampson for Dylan Cease in deep std roto dynasty? Went with a hitter-heavy rebuild and am flush with young bats, but I am still a year away at least so its not quite time to cash in hitters for arms. Still, I dig Cease’s stuff and think he has a higher ceiling than Hampson. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Big fan of both so I’m in since it fits your needs. I’ve been big on Cease going into this year and my Hampson love is well documented

Donnie baseball: Paul, I am in a 16 team mixed league head to head with 13 keepers. Would you trade Bergman for Franco and Lux.  Thanks.

Paul Sporer: I can get down with that trade, sure. Big future play, but you’re getting two ELITE prospects

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I gotta get ready for the Pedro re-watch. I appreciate y’all coming out. We’ll get a longer chat going next week. Come through at twitch.tv/sporer to watch Pedro dominate with Nick Pollack & myself!