Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – February 26th, 2020

Paul Sporer: Good afternoon, everyone! Let’s talk some baseball!

The Champ: Any update on the Beat Paul Sporer league? You’re killing me

Paul Sporer: I’m picking a date soon. Any days you CANNOT do?

Jake deGrom: Heard you said Kershaw was in the grandpa tier on the pod. Since I’m only a few months younger, am I hitting grandpa tier this year too?

Paul Sporer: Mostly tongue in cheek re: grandpa, but it’s more related to IP counts where Kershaw dwarfs deGrom by essentially double

Michael: How concerned are you about how the change from Grandal to Narvaez will affect Woodruff? How are you baking that into your rankings?

Paul Sporer: I definitely have some trepidation about that. I’m wondering (hoping?) they have some framing tips & tricks to help Narvaez, but I do have to put a little ding on Woodruff for that change

Isotopes: $2 Gallegos or $2 Kela in an NL only league that has holds as a category?

Paul Sporer: I’d lean Gallegos with the holds protection

HeyNowYoureanAllStar: what’s your standard strategy for drafting catchers? And how willing are you to deviate from it?

Paul Sporer: I’m not averse to buying one of those well-regarded top 5: Realmuto, Grandal, Sanchez, Contreras, Garver in some order if it fits my construction.

If none of them make it on the squad, I’m working in that thick middle tier that has tons of guys who are quite similar. I’m not going to FULLY punt and just take 2 late, but it will become less of a priority once the top 5 go.,

Cleveland Fan: Thanks for the chats.  Who has the better chance to start:  Urquidy, Montgomery or James?

Paul Sporer: I feel like Urquidy and Montgomery are damn-near locks for rotation spots as their teams just don’t have many ways they can go otherwise while James is fighting for that fifth spot (and has a good chance at it, so I wouldn’t even put him tooo far below the other 2)

Bronx Bombers: keeper question…standard 5×5…my pitching is week overall…can keep 2…Darvish in 9th..devers in the 7th…Urias in 23rd

Paul Sporer: I’d go with Devers and Urias. I’m pretty big on Darvish, but the price on Urias is just too good to pass

The Champ: No bad dates really. Early March for BPS would be great!

Paul Sporer: OK excellent, it’s going to be early March so that’s perfect

John: Who do you like most in a points league: Soroka, Sonny Gray, Wheeler, or Hendricks?

Paul Sporer: Hmm, I’ll lean Gray with his K upside over the others (well, Wheeler gets Ks, too, but I still prefer Gray)

Walt: I’m expecting Severino will be immediately cut in an Ottoneu 5×5 after our auction later this week. At what price would you make a FA bid at him for, assuming he clears waivers?

Paul Sporer: $2 maybe. By the time he returns, we’re looking at two full seasons on the shelf. I understand the talent upside, but I’m not pouring many resources into rostering him and waiting

Cito’s Mustache: I was just offered Scherzer for Hiura & Pearson in a 14-team dynasty points league. I’m probably a top 3 team this year, but just lost Sevy. Villar would be my 2B. Do I take it?

Paul Sporer: I think that really works. I’d go for that deal!

Brood550: In a SV/Hlds league would you punt RPs completely and stack starters with the new 3 batter rule?

Paul Sporer: I’m not averse to a SV/HD punt in a standalone league in general, even without the new 3-batter rule. Don’t forget, it’s only 3 batters if they don’t finish the inning so I think the effect could be overblown a bit, too

Freddy Paid-ralta: After locking down a nice extension from the Brew Crew, do you think that signals Peralta will start the season in the rotation?

Paul Sporer: I think they’re definitely interested in him starting and if he gets this new slider on lock, he could be pretty good. He’s an interesting late-round gamble for me.

Dave: Do you have any low-price AL only closer gambles you are targeting? Thanks.

Paul Sporer: Joe Jimenez in DET, Diego Castillo in TB, James Karinchak in CLE, and Ryan Pressly in HOU

Paul Sporer: Jimenez is the only one of those with the job right now but the others are nice gambles

ProjectionSnob: I love that we can download projections in nice .csv files from the site, but any way you could tell the powers that be in FG to include players’ age and position in those files? It would ease the work load of fantasy baseball geeks like me who build their own spreadsheets every year.

Paul Sporer: That’s a good call out and I’ll pass the message along for sure

Mike: 10-Team NL only with $240 budget, keep 3 of the following guys: Will Smith $1, Kingery $1, Robles $19, Grisham $1, Suzuki $1, Weaver $1, May $1, Musgrove $5, Gallegos $1

Paul Sporer: Is that Will Smith the C? Kingery, Robles, Weaver or replace Weaver with Smith if it’s the C and then hammer pitching at auction

Max max IP?: Bold prediction (or maybe not so bold prediction?) – Scherzer dunks on all of us and coasts back to over 200 IP, while the Sevs and Clevs of the world deal with the IL bug.

Paul Sporer: Not crazy bold but I think most are operating with a projection that has him below 200 IP

Mike: Haven’t heard much about Pablo Lopez this offseason but he showed some flashes last season. Good sleeper pick again for this year?

Paul Sporer: I’m definitely in on Lopez this year: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/good-pitches-from-bad-pitchers-pt-2/ and https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/assessing-my-big-differences-with-adp-pt…

Fred: Expectations for a finally healthy Gregory Polanco?

Paul Sporer: Man, I’ve bought in on this hype train many a time. At least he’s priced to buy with a pick outside the Top 300. If we get 500+ PA, I’d tab him for 20 HR/12-15 SB

Pat: I’ve seen comps that Woodruff is this year’s Pivetta, strikes me as lazy analysis given that Woodruff’s fastball is plus and Pivetta’s is BAD.  What do you think?

Paul Sporer: Ya it doesn’t really make any sense. I think it’s just in regards to a hyped starter bc Woodruff’s ’19 was way better than Pivetta’s ’18 so I just don’t buy the comparison

Michael: If Paddack/Woodruff are your top 2, what kind of guys are you trying to fill the rest of your rotation with?

Paul Sporer: I’d probably lean toward some stability of innings in the middle of my rotation with those 2 at the top: Wheeler, Maeda, Price, Musgrove, Tanaka, etc…

HeyNowYoureanAllStar: obviously balance is the key, but … would you prefer a studly INF and fairly weak OF, or vice-versa?

Paul Sporer: I don’t really look at my breakdown between the two. I just build the best team I can.

trubull: pick 1 for final keeper – Moncada $14, or some meh SP: Ray 6, Wheeler 6, Bauer 10

Paul Sporer: I’ll take Moncada

Guest: Hoskins $3 or Conforto $11? 12 team OPS and AVG

Paul Sporer: They’re close enough that I’ll take the $8 discount and go with Hoskins

THE Average Sports Fan: Is Josh Bell a top 10 1B or did he just have a hot couple months?

Paul Sporer: I mean if we put September to the side since he only played 10 games, he had three brilliant months and two mediocre ones. I have him in my top 10.

The other injured yank: Hi Paul. Have Aaron Hicks on a guaranteed $10 contract, al only. Trade, keep or cut?

Paul Sporer: Ah that’s tough since he’s going to miss about half the season. I can’t imagine you’ll get much in the trade market so if you’re not blocking off a more viable full season keeper, I don’t mind hanging on and parking him on the IL

THE Average Sports Fan: Does the Aaron Bummer extension change anything for you?

Paul Sporer: No, not necessarily. I still think Colome is the guy to start the season. Bummer doesn’t need to log saves to be worth that deal

Dino: Howdy, I can trade 1 year of Bellinger in the 26th round (last) for 2 years of Tatis Jr. in the 7th round of my 5×5 10-teamer, would you pull the trigger? Thank you.

Paul Sporer: Dang, that’s really tough. I think I’ll take the two years of Tatis here

Tommy: Good day!! Any confidence in Turnbull ($1) or Eovaldi ($3) as a last keeper in AL or should I trade from my minors for an Urquidy ($3) or Josh James($4)?

Paul Sporer: I like Urquidy a good bit, but I’d rather bet on Turnbull/Eovaldi than trade from my system. Urquidy will be ranked higher than Turnbull for me, but not so much so that I’d trade assets to get Urquidy instead of just keeping Turnbull

Cody: Severino was one of my pitching keepers in a points-only league this year but I obviously have to move on. My only options are Ohtani and Lamet. Who should I go with? I’m leaning Lamet due to Ohtani’s inning/usage question marks

Paul Sporer: If you can’t use Ohtani’s hitting in the interim, go for Lamet for sure

Gurriel Sr: Lourdes Gurriel Jr or Alex Verdugo for 2020 only ?

Paul Sporer: Gurriel Jr. I really like him this year in general, but I especially prefer him to an already-hurt Verdugo

Guest: What does the Rockies OF situation look like on opening day?

Paul Sporer: Hilliard-Dahl-Blackmon vR with Hampson in for Hilliard vL

Corbin Burnes: Am I a SP or RP?  If I like I have some sleeper value if I am a SP…is this true?

Paul Sporer: They’re stretching him out as an SP so he’s a possibility for sure. I don’t mind him as a lottery ticket late in drafts

Frank Liberty: Does Odorizzi lose value in a QS league?

Paul Sporer: Ya, I’d drop him down a bit in those leagues

TB chaos: How much do you ding TB players in an Only league given the mixing and matching? Which of the non-regulars (Adames, Meadows, (gulp) Zunino) gets enough PT not to be a liability?

Paul Sporer: I actually ding them more in mixers. In AL-Only, I’m OK with guys who don’t get full playing time if they’re skilled enough

Mooseknuckle Curve: Help me understand why you rate Buehler over Flaherty for 2020. I feel like they should be flip-flopped from where they are currently being taken.  Flaherty>Sale>Stras>Buehler

Paul Sporer: If you prefer Flaherty, you can certainly slot him up there. I think he’s being a bit overrated bc of the 2H and now he’s super expensive. I’m moving him up from my current rankings on the site, but not up ahead of Buehler

Tony: I would be in your debt in you can rank the following guys for 2020 in a redraft league: Giancarlo, Nelly, Rendon, Donaldson. Much appreciated.

Paul Sporer: Rendon, Cruz, Donaldson, Stanton (hurt AGAINNNNN and now Opening Day is in doubt)

KC: Most of the projection systems seem to have Salvador Perez pretty much repeating his 2018 season, any concern coming back from his injury? The projected PA’s seem high.

Paul Sporer: I could see being a little cautious on him getting back to his previous PA counts, but it’s kinda built into the price. I think he’ll be his normal self by rate even if he doesn’t return to 540+ PA.

Todd: When do you expect to release an update to the SP rankings?

Paul Sporer: If not by the end of the week, then on Monday. I’ve been working diligently on them lately

Roger: I’m in a 10-team $260 AL-only keeper league. I get the sense early on that my league mates will shy away from Francisco Lindor at the auction for fear that he gets dealt to the NL mid-season. I’m also terrified of this reality, yet I’m not sure I can resist the temptation of having Lindor as my SS. How would you approach him at the auction?

Paul Sporer: If there’s going to be a discount commensurate with that worry, dive in. I’d also consider switching from a shit-out-of-luck league in AL or NL only. It just adds an extra level of volatility that fantasy players have zero control over.

Upton Funk: Who do you like most as a UTL gamble in 12 teamers, Justin Upton, Andujar, or Khris Davis?  All seem to be available quite late…

Paul Sporer: Dig ’em all and I gotta be honest, I’d likely just take the cheapest of the bunch.

Sheila: I’m in the midst of preparing for my NL-only league auction and I’m trying to determine my strategy. What advice would you give me if I’m leaning towards a stars and scrubs approach? Your assistance is greatly appreciated.

Paul Sporer: Get an idea of the stars you want to build the team around and then make sure you have lengthy lists of scrubs because you’ll definitely miss out on some of your faves when they go too high. Make sure you have contingencies everywhere.

KC: Cesepedes’ claims he’s going to be ready for the start of the season, just standard preseason fluff or someone to keep an eye on in deeper leagues?

Paul Sporer: Definitely someone to keep an eye on. He’s out there working out with them and busting his butt. I don’t mind him as a late gamble in 15-team mixers and NL only leagues

The Amish: 8 keeper league. ALL THE CATEGORIES. You keeping Bo Bichette or Luis Castillo? There are two IF positions in addition to filling each IF spot.

Paul Sporer: Big fan of both so with it being close, I lean toward the hitter

Ben: Why hasn’t Puig signed at this point?

Paul Sporer: I imagine he’s not getting blown away with offers. At this point, it’s hard to even find starting roles for him in many spots.

MH252525: With Pujols getting even older and a new manager with expectations of at least competing for a WC spot, is this the year Albert sees a series decline to his playing time?

Paul Sporer: Maddon is the guy who could execute it, especially when Ohtani is hitting every day to start the season

Sitck to Sporer-z Ball: Choose one to keep Calhoun ($6) of Kepler ($10) -12 Team OBP league.  Thanks for the chats, Paul!

Paul Sporer: I imagine that’s Willie Calhoun and while I do like him, I gotta go Kepdog

Big Joe Mufferaw: What should be the approach for steals in 2020 fantasy? Seems like 1, steals stud can win you the category?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I’m not bending over backwards for SBs the way many seem to be. If you get a stud and the nickel and dime contributions elsewhere, you’ll be fine. Hell, even if you don’t get the stud, but rather a couple 20s and then nickel & dimes, you’ll be fine

Eric: Same question as Dave but  – low price NL only closer gambles

Paul Sporer: Daniel Hudson, Giovanny Gallegos, Corey Knebel, and Michael Lorenzen. None of them have a set job, but the guys with jobs aren’t really low priced in the NL

Big Joe Mufferaw: Sports.Yahoo fantasy league gives updates on every player, I drafter Soto, and this is the update they gave… : Advice: Soto is just 21 and has never played in Triple-A, so it’s hard to say whether he’s truly ready for the majors yet. Nonetheless, the Nationals are set to hand him the starting job in left field this spring. If it doesn’t work out, they have Mac Williamson waiting in the wings.

Paul Sporer: I believe this originated on Rotoworld and it’s still up. It doesn’t appear to be a gag so maybe it was someone from a different sport filling in and just going off their limited MLB knowledge because if you somehow didn’t see his ’18-19 stats, I guess I sorta see how you’d get here… but it’s pretty bad lol

Dougie: The Astros will steal a) less, b) more, or c) the same amount of bases now that they’re not cheating?

Paul Sporer: Maybe a touch more, but unlikely a tangible effect

Mark Matheny: Sano or Schwarber

Paul Sporer: I prefer Schwaber, but I’ve warmed up on Sano after being way out for a while

Mooseknuckle Curve: Caleb Smith, Luchessi or DeSclafani at the end of drafts? Been listening to the podcasts, don’t remember much about those names.  They seem to pop up in every mock towards the end

Paul Sporer: Smith and Lucchesi are in today’s upcoming episode so you’ll get some real talk on them. I’d lean Smith of the three, though I was highest on the episode on Lucchesi as his deception and churve are working for him despite ranking very low in Stuff and Command numbers that Eno uses

tom: how come noone is using the emoji things???

Paul Sporer: Not sure. They get used here and there. Maybe they aren’t available on mobile or maybe ppl don’t know about them?

Dave in London: How likely is that the Mariners fast-track Julio Rodriquez a la Soto and Mookie? I hear he’s a remarkably advanced hitter for his age.

Paul Sporer: Very unlikely as the M’s just aren’t in a competitive window that makes starting the clock that early worth it. I’d be REALLY surprised if he forced his way up in ’20. I’d say ’21 at the earliest even if he goes off this year

Brood550: How many MLB starts does Deivi Garcia get this year?

Paul Sporer: 12

Sitck to Sporer-z Ball: Sorry for the repeat question…didn’t give enough context last time.   Willie Calhoun ($6) or Max Kepler ($10) in a 12 team Mixed 5×5 league.  $150 max keeper salary out of $260 total

Paul Sporer: I’m still sticking with Kepler, but appreciate the clarity of information

Enlightening Round: 11 team NL only, kinda have to keep a $1 A. Almora right? league depth is pretty sparce

Paul Sporer: Ehhhh, I don’t think you have to. I used to feel that way in my NL Only and felt like most $1 were worth it, but then I realized I was eating up roster spots that I wanted back come auction time. I’d pass on Almora. You could feasibly get him back, tbh

onomatopoeia: Do you ever miss doing the SP Guide?

Paul Sporer: I do, yes. Just last night I was listening to an album that dropped when I was writing an SP guide and I just listened to it on repeat that winter. It definitely brought back some nostalgia for those long nights writing SP entries

A guy who likes tacos: Between Arrieta, Samardzija, and Hamels, which do you think has the best chance to still be useful in 2021?

Paul Sporer: I’d have a coinflip between Shark and Hamels if Hamels was healthy, but I’ll lean Shark at the draft table

daro: would you trade Stanton for Hoskins in a keep forever league?

Paul Sporer: I’m fine with that

Paul Sporer: OK, I gotta get going. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch tomorrow evening and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Take care, y’all!