Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – December 8th, 2021

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Thank you for coming out!

Jim Leyland Palmer: What are your overall thoughts on the Baez signing for us?

Paul Sporer: He wasn’t my top choice, in fact he was quite literally my last choice among the premium SS available, buuuttt I’m not going to pretend it’s complete flop of a move that doesn’t add to the team. The concerns come with how that profile will age, but in the short-term (next 2-3 yrs), he should remain an above average bat with excellent defense & speed. That should keep him a consistent 3-5 WAR player (depending on variance of the bat).

Paul Sporer: And as a Tigers fan, I’m gonna root like hell for him

fantasy baseball player: Manoah or Gallen for 2022 and why? Thanks, Paul

Paul Sporer: I lean Gallen – he’s at 31 w/Manoah at 35. I had to really dig in with Manoah because I love him and I wanted to make sure I wasn’t just overrating him. I ended moving him down out of my top 30 and down to 35 bc he’s still mostly a 2-pitch guy (the 3rd pitch has potential, but isn’t fully there) with shaky command in the toughest division in baseball. Gallen’s injury-riddled season ended on a high note (3.19 ERA/1.13 WHIP) and he has a deep arsenal w/strong whiff history. He also plays in a better division even w/the Dodgers & Coors. So I favor him

SH: Head to head points league would you rather have Judge Lindor or Seager Jimmenez?

Paul Sporer: I’m going Judge/Lindor there. Think the Seager/Eloy side takes on more risk without getting more reward on the upside bc we’ve actually seen the Judge/Lindor upside & we know how great it is. Love Eloy, but also have some trepidation about Seager in Texas w/that park

RJ: Judge or Robert in a points league setup next year?

Paul Sporer: Judge relatively easily here bc the value of Robert’s speed is undercut in H2H, plus Judge’s patience will deliver those extra pts via walks

Keith: Many people talk about drafting pocket aces in the first 5 rounds.  I’m in a 2 catcher league….any reason why you shouldn’t draft 2 of the top 3 catchers in the first 5-7 rounds?  I always seem to have a 2nd catcher that does nothing but bring my average down and offer little other offensive help.

Paul Sporer: You certainly can and it will deliver an advantage, but the question is whether or not that advantage will be worth spending the draft capital. I think you have your 2 Cs by round 10 and get a big enough boost to make that worthwhile w/out having to use such high picks

Paul Sporer: I do think too many ppl just take whomever at C2 with no regard for how much those players can hurt

Jim Leyland Palmer: Does Sandy Alcantara have another gear in him to reach or is he just about at his ceiling now? Top 10/15ish arm?

Paul Sporer: He does have another gear as he could reasonably put up a full season of his August-forward work: 3.05 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 28% K. That’s not the projection for ’22, but rather the full scale upside

Anthony: Would you recommend picking up a KBO pitcher as a budget pick?

Paul Sporer: Depends who it is, but sure. I definitely like to keep an eye on who’s coming over and consider them late in drafts

MLB fan: do you think MLB is judging market wrong, NBA, NHL and NFL attendance is down and if MLB has any stoppage to season they may lose fans

Paul Sporer: They are in big trouble if the lockout leaks into the season. I think (hope??) they realize that and I think we’ll get the lockout completed before it impedes the ’22 season. At this pt in early-December, I’m not super concerned about it impacting the season

Paul Sporer: But if it, they will become the next NHL which of course doesn’t mean it will die, just that they will fall severely

Guardians Fan: I’ve never played fantasy baseball before? Where should I start?

Paul Sporer: Have you played fantasy football? If you have and enjoyed it, I’d start w/head-to-head points lgs for baseball, too. I really love roto, but I’m all for ppl playing the format that suits them. As far as getting started on draft prep, I’d obviously recommend our articles & pods here at Rotographs and we’ll also have a big Draft Tool post updating all winter w/all the best articles to use for your draft prep (more on that soon!)

Slapshot: What does the torn UCL news regarding Max Muncy do for you regarding his status for 2022?

Paul Sporer: Destroys it for me right now. He’s off my winter draft board right now. If news improves for spring, I’ll bring him back into consideration, but for now I’m OK passing on him

Fire Manfred into the sun: What sort of prospect(s) would you expect to get if you sold Whit Merrifield in a dynasty league?

Paul Sporer: These are too vague to answer bc it always depends on valuations of your leaguemates. That said, he should still net a solid prospect piece if trading w/a contending team

Fantasy boy: Can Adames produce numbers in 2022 similar to Correa’s 2021 year?

Paul Sporer: Oh for sure. He almost got there in ’21, tbh, so Adames has even more upside than that, IMO. He has 30 HR upside IMO

Ted: Oh shit, we chatting! Quick Q – What projection systems do you tend to use pre-season, and what, if any, impact has Jeff’s recent series on them had on your thinking re: which are most reliable?

Paul Sporer: Chats are back! Small fall hiatus, but we’re back for the offseason!

Paul Sporer: As for proj. systems, I like looking at them, but I don’t commit to one over the others. I read the Forecaster quite a bit so I absorb a lot of those projections and then once BAT & BATX are loaded into our player pages, I generally lean toward them

MLB fan: have to make decision on Luis Rengifo, keep in deep AL league or release, have for $2 but would take up MI spot. Do you think with Tyler Wade trade and Rengifo having opinions still that he may be in minors to start year?

Paul Sporer: I don’t want to say he’s blocked off entirely, but Wade and Andrew Velasquez certainly cut into his early season path. Hell, Jack Mayfield might cut him off a bit, too. That saidddd, at $2, I’m still  intrigued and would be interested in trying to keep him so it would come down to who is on the chopping block w/him

TBD: Do you think JA Siri gets ABs this year?  He tore it up in a small showing last year.

Paul Sporer: He should find some run, though the corners are pretty locked if Tucker & Brantley are healthy so he will most spot into CF (barring injury). And while Siri did have a nice 20 HR/27 SB season across AAA/MLB, it still came w/a 32% K and sky-high BABIPs (.436 at AAA, .400 at MLB).

Chris: What’s your outlook on Mondesi headed into ’22? It seems he’s a monster if healthy, but also that it’s a huge ‘if’ given the amount of time he spent on the shelf last year.

Paul Sporer: At this point, I’m comfortable drafting him w/the idea that I’m aiming for 90-100 gms and likely maxing at 130. He just doesn’t need a full allotment of games to be a fantasy stud. That said, even the 90-100 has been a challenge for him, so we can’t even bank on that. You just have to fully prepare to draft him meaning you have to continue to supplement speed, he can’t be a set it & forget it guy, and you can draft an extra 3B for CI or UT under the idea that he can slot in for Mondesi if/when he is on the IL

Schilling & Pence: Jacob Jacob Jacob…would you risk an early second round pick?  For as much as he plays he’ll be the #1 SP, but I’ve been burned…

Paul Sporer: I know those of us w/deGrom last year got hit but he was still a stone cold god for the 92 IP we did get and as you mention, he’ll be excellent when he does pitch. I’m comfortable buying back in right now. As a multi-leaguer, I’m open to getting him in a couple spots, but he’s not someone I’m getting every draft or even a majority of them. So if you’re a single-leaguer or 2-3 type, I understand if you want to pass on that risk. That said, if you’re a single-leaguer, chances are you draft in the spring and you’ll have a lotttt more info on his status by then. If he looks good in Spring, he’s back to a top 5 pick immediately

Kate: Cards were talking about possibly giving Alex Reyes a shot at the rotation, but then signed Matz and now appear to have at least 5 arms ahead of him on the depth chart.  And in the pen, Gallegos seemed to take control of the closer role late in the year.  How do you think Reyes’ role shakes out this year and going forward?

Paul Sporer: Yeah they have suggest Reyes & Hicks are going to get SP opportunities for ’22 so hopefully Gallegos will finally be left alone w/the closer’s role. Matz gives ’em a set 5 for now, but it’s far from stable. Even the strongest parts – Waino & Flaherty – have their own issues in age & health, respectively. Mikolas is returning from a 44 IP season and Hudson essentially missed all of ’21. So if Reyes & Hicks come in ready to go, they will get chances. Plus, neither is taking 30 turns in the rotation no matter how good they are so it’s OK if they don’t start the season in the rotation

fantasy1234: In a 10 team head to head points league is Judge likely to be available in the third and Robert in the fourth round ?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure Robert drops that far even though his speed isn’t as valuable in H2H

Dynasty: In a dynasty keep forever (10tm, h2h cats), how do you price bounceback candidates given you’ll be stuck with them (or without what you give up)? Specifically, I am thinking of Bregman, but the question applies to guys like Story and Rendon, too.

Paul Sporer: I’m OK buying any of the three tbh. Obviously you can’t guarantee health so it would suck to re-invest in Bregman or Rendon and see them get hurt again, but I’d take the discounted shot on either. As for Story, his “down” season was still a 20-20 campaign. Yeah, he’ll be out of Coors in ’22, but I think the discount around pick-45 is worth buying in, even w/out knowing where he’ll be yet

Kate: Does Rowdy Tellez get a shot at everyday ABs if the DH comes to the NL in 2022?

Paul Sporer: I think he’s at least a strong side platoon w/the DH in the NL. He ended up lookin pretty good w/MIL (112 wRC+, 18% K, 7 HR in 174 PA) and it seems he was just a bit unlucky w/TOR to start last year

Broken bat: Detmers, Hernandez of Royals or Houck of RedSox in 2022?

Paul Sporer: Houck is my highest ranked right now, though it’s hard to say if he’s got a spot on lock heading into ’22. Hernandez should have a spot. He has the stuff to push the 21% K rate we saw in the majors, but he will be a WHIP issue. I think Detmers is a summer impact arm so I have to rank him 3rd right now.

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, i gotta wrap it up here. I’ll have rankings hitting the site soon and we can definitely discuss those in next week’s chat! Thanks for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!